STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long but is champing at the bit to go short with the algo number 4 points below the signal line. The internal parameters will not yet latch to permit the move. If the SPX trends lower and falls below 5727 (will start the new week at 5738), Keybot the Quant will likely flip short. Thus, watch the S&P futures overnight to see if they are soggy by 11 points.

The battle for US stock market directional control is volatility and commodities in the bear camp creating negativity versus the banks and chips in the bull camp helping stocks to float higher and for the SPX to print a new all-time high at 5767 and new all-time closing high at 5745 on 9/26/24.

Bears need the SPX below 5727 and trending lower and they will take over control of the stock market. Bears need XLF below 44.04, which is about a -2.1% drop in the financials needed, and/or SOX below 5040, which is about a -3.4% loss in semiconductors needed to create more negativity. These two metrics turning bearish will create serious negativity and a lot of bearish price action but bears will have to bring their A game to reverse these high-flying sectors.

Bulls need VIX below 15.26. This was a key battle last week and will continue in the week ahead. Very simply, bulls win big going forward if the VIX loses 15.26 but bears will create market carnage the longer that the VIX remains above 15.26 especially if it begins moving higher (and Friday it did with the VIX near 17).

Bulls also need GTX above the 3553 palindrome to create more stock market upside that equates to about a +1% gain in broad commodities. 

Keybot prints two pre-scheduled numbers this week one on Monday, that is the end of the month (EOM) and quarter (EOQ3), and the other on Friday morning. Three-quarters of the year, 75%, is in the bag with the final 3 months of trading remaining in 2024.

Whittling the above mumbo-jumbo down to something simple, watch SPX 5727 and VIX 15.26. The bulls will create new all-time highs if VIX loses 15.26. Bears win big if VIX remains above 15.26 and if the SPX loses 5727. Easy-peasy. It's Easy like Sunday morning.

10/6/24; 7:00 PM EST =
10/4/24; 9:00 AM EST =
9/30/24; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ3 =
9/29/24; 7:00 PM EST = +32; signal line is +36 but algorithm remains long
9/27/24; 10:00 AM EST = +32; signal line is +36 but algorithm remains long
9/26/24; 9:54 AM EST = +32; signal line is +35 but algorithm remains long