STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short but the algo is champing at the bit to go long. The algo number is 21 points above the signal line but the internal parameters will not fully latch to permit the move to the long side. The algo went schizoid on Thursday spitting out 14 numbers.

Copper and chips are all that matter with a sprinkling of commodities. All three parameters turned bullish creating stock market joy, however, the SPX gave-up the ghost finishing the week at 5808. If the SPX moves above 5863 on Monday, Keybot the Quant will likely flip long. That is a formidable task, 55 S&P points, but anything can happen these days.

Bears need CPER below 27.40, SOX below 5145 and/or GTX 3575. Any 1 of the 3 turning bearish will prove that the bears still got game. Bears need 2 of the metrics to turn bearish to maintain control of the stock market. If all 3 turn bearish, a lot of downside is ahead for the stock market.

It is a game of pennies. Copper futures need to drop only -0.1%, a marginal loss, to turn CPER bearish again. SOX (semiconductors) needs to drop -1.3% to help the bears. GTX (commodities) needs to drop -1.1% to help the bears.

Keybot the Quant prints three pre-scheduled numbers this week one on Tuesday morning, one on Thursday, Halloween, evening for EOM, and one on Friday morning. Watch copper futures overnight since they are steering the stock market ship. Everyone wants to hear the Monster Mash these days. It is a graveyard smash.

11/3/24; 7:00 PM EST =
11/1/24; 9:00 AM EST =
10/31/24; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
10/29/24; 10:00 AM EST =
10/27/24; 7:00 PM EST = +46; signal line is +25 but algorithm remains short
10/25/24; 10:06 AM EST = +46; signal line is +24 but algorithm remains short
10/25/24; 10:00 AM EST = +30; signal line is +23 but algorithm remains short
10/24/24; 3:59 PM EST = +30; signal line is +23 but algorithm remains short
10/24/24; 3:51 PM EST = +46; signal line is +23 but algorithm remains short
10/24/24; 2:48 PM EST = +30; signal line is +22 but algorithm remains short
10/24/24; 2:37 PM EST = +14; signal line is +20
10/24/24; 2:22 PM EST = +30; signal line is +21 but algorithm remains short
10/24/24; 2:18 PM EST = +16; signal line is +21
10/24/24; 2:12 PM EST = +0; signal line is +22
10/24/24; 2:04 PM EST = +14; signal line is +23
10/24/24; 1:54 PM EST = +0; signal line is +24
10/24/24; 1:42 PM EST = +30; signal line is +26 but algorithm remains short
10/24/24; 1:29 PM EST = +14; signal line is +27
10/24/24; 11:52 AM EST = +0; signal line is +28
10/24/24; 11:06 AM EST = +16; signal line is +29
10/24/24; 9:36 AM EST = +30; signal line is +30 but algorithm remains short
10/23/24; 12:56 PM EST = +14; signal line is +30

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the short side yesterday at munch time at SPX 5799. Copper and chips sink the stock market. The algo number is only 16 points below the signal line so the stock market remains a coin flip.

The bears have the ball and need further weakness in copper and chips and must also pull commodities, retail stocks and banks lower. Bears need GTX below 3575 and RTH below 214.80 to kick-in heavy stock market selling.

Bulls need to pull copper and chips back into their camp; CPER above 27.40 and/or SOX above 5141, respectively. This represents about a +0.7% rise in copper futures and a +0.2% gain in semiconductors. It is easy to see that the bulls can quickly position themselves in the driver's seat again.

Copper futures are up +0.9% in the early morning hours on the East Coast so CPER may be in position to turn bullish after the opening bell. You can look at SMH or individual chip plays in the pre-market to see if SOX wants to turn bullish again.

On the last trade, that ran for a couple weeks, the quant program and actual trading generated by the quant, gain about a percent. For the year thus far, the SPX benchmark is up a huge +22%. That is funny considering everyone was expecting recession and sadness in stocks this year. The Keybot the Quant algorithm is up about +7% this year and the actual trading generated by the quant is up +11% in 2024 underperforming the benchmark S&P 500 by 11 percentage points. Keybot exited SSO and entered SDS.

A pre-scheduled number prints tomorrow morning after the opening bell. Stay alert for a potential whipsaw back to the long side. Copper and chips tell you what the stock market is doing.

10/27/24; 7:00 PM EST =
10/25/24; 10:00 AM EST =
10/23/24; 12:56 PM EST = +14; signal line is +30
10/23/24; 12:31 PM EST = +30; signal line is +31; go short 5799; (Benchmark SPX for 2024 = +21.6%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.8%; Keybot algo for 2024 = +6.7%)(Actual results this trade = +1.3%; Actual results for 2024 = +11.3%)
10/23/24; 9:36 AM EST = +30; signal line is +31 but algorithm remains long
10/22/24; 9:56 AM EST = +46; signal line is +31
10/21/24; 3:59 PM EST = +32; signal line is +31
10/21/24; 11:18 AM EST = +16; signal line is +31 but algorithm remains long
10/20/24; 7:00 PM EST = +32; signal line is +31
10/18/24; 9:36 AM EST = +32; signal line is +32 but algorithm remains long
10/18/24; 9:00 AM EST = +16; signal line is +32 but algorithm remains long
10/17/24; 11:18 AM EST = +16; signal line is +33 but algorithm remains long
10/17/24; 9:57 AM EST = +32; signal line is +33 but algorithm remains long
10/17/24; 9:36 AM EST = +16; signal line is +34 but algorithm remains long
10/16/24; 12:45 PM EST = +32; signal line is +35 but algorithm remains long
10/16/24; 11:12 AM EST = +16; signal line is +35 but algorithm remains long
10/16/24; 9:36 AM EST = +32; signal line is +37 but algorithm remains long
10/15/24; 3:54 PM EST = +16; signal line is +37 but algorithm remains long
10/15/24; 3:37 PM EST = +0; signal line is +39 but algorithm remains long
10/15/24; 9:41 AM EST = +16; signal line is +40 but algorithm remains long
10/15/24; 9:36 AM EST = +32; signal line is +41 but algorithm remains long
10/13/24; 7:00 PM EST = +46; signal line is +42
10/11/24; 10:00 AM EST = +46; signal line is +41
10/8/24; 3:38 PM EST = +46; signal line is +40; go long 5755; (Benchmark SPX for 2024 = +20.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.8%; Keybot algo for 2024 = +5.9%)(Actual results this trade = +2.4%; Actual results for 2024 = +10.0%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long. The quant was champing at the bit to go short but the bulls stop the assault and are in the good again by one point. Markets are a coin-flip these days.

The bulls pumped copper to save the day last week. Doctor Copper is sitting in a wheelchair today, by the window, so he can enjoy the beautiful Fall foliage of the Laurel Highlands in southwestern Pennsylvania. He is in the bull camp but he has a terrible cough. Oh, no, hack, cough, wheeze, get him back into bed. Stat! Punch a vein for a saline drip. Stat! Dr Copper is touch and go these days. He is resting again, clutching the bull pillow.

Chips also helped the bull case last week while volatility and commodities remain in the bear camp.

Bulls need either VIX below 16.35 or GTX above 3576 to signal big stock market gains ahead and the path to fulfill the SPX 6K levels and higher by year-end.

Bears need CPER below 27.36 or SOX below 5136 to signal big trouble ahead for US stocks. It is extremely odd that the VIX is moving higher with stocks making all-time highs. The SPX printed an all-time high at 5878 last Thursday, 10/17/24. This tells you there is a problem under the surface. Chips are also pumped when the bulls need to stick-save the SPX as it rolls over.

If either CPER or SOX turn bearish, and the SPX loses 19 or 20 points, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short. Copper futures need to drop -0.8% for the bears to start ripping bull flesh. The SOX needs to drop about -1.4% to create stock market negativity. Commodities (GTX) need to rise about +1.7% to create a bullish orgy.

Choose your poison. Focus on the red metal. If copper futures fall -0.8% overnight, and the SPX gives up 20 points on Monday, it is likely the start of something painful ahead for stocks. Keybot the Quant prints one pre-scheduled number this week on Friday morning. The caution flag is out but if copper or the chips turn sour, consider the imminent turn to the short side to be in play. You bess be careful if headin' down Copperhead Road.

10/27/24; 7:00 PM EST =
10/25/24; 10:00 AM EST =
10/20/24; 7:00 PM EST = +32; signal line is +31
10/18/24; 9:36 AM EST = +32; signal line is +32 but algorithm remains long
10/18/24; 9:00 AM EST = +16; signal line is +32 but algorithm remains long
10/17/24; 11:18 AM EST = +16; signal line is +33 but algorithm remains long
10/17/24; 9:57 AM EST = +32; signal line is +33 but algorithm remains long
10/17/24; 9:36 AM EST = +16; signal line is +34 but algorithm remains long
10/16/24; 12:45 PM EST = +32; signal line is +35 but algorithm remains long
10/16/24; 11:12 AM EST = +16; signal line is +35 but algorithm remains long
10/16/24; 9:36 AM EST = +32; signal line is +37 but algorithm remains long
10/15/24; 3:54 PM EST = +16; signal line is +37 but algorithm remains long
10/15/24; 3:37 PM EST = +0; signal line is +39 but algorithm remains long
10/15/24; 9:41 AM EST = +16; signal line is +40 but algorithm remains long
10/15/24; 9:36 AM EST = +32; signal line is +41 but algorithm remains long
10/13/24; 7:00 PM EST = +46; signal line is +42
10/11/24; 10:00 AM EST = +46; signal line is +41
10/8/24; 3:38 PM EST = +46; signal line is +40; go long 5755; (Benchmark SPX for 2024 = +20.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.8%; Keybot algo for 2024 = +5.9%)(Actual results this trade = +2.4%; Actual results for 2024 = +10.0%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the bull side at SPX 5755 with only 20 minutes left in the trading session today.  The stock market has been bumping along unable to commit to the upside or downside. It would not be surprising to see a whipsaw this week. The algo number is only 6 points above the signal line so the bull's grip is not very strong.

Bulls need VIX below 16.00 and it is above 21. The rally got nothing until it can be proven with lower volatility. This is extremely odd and rare behavior because the stock market at or near all-time highs should see a VIX far lower at the 10-14 area right now. Something strange is occurring.

Bears need weaker chips, banks, copper and commodities. Copper may be recoiling. Watch the CPER 27.25 bull/bear line in the sand. Bank earnings in a couple days may create excitement.

On the last trade, that only ran for about a week, the quant program loses about a percent and the actual trading is down a couple percent. For the year thus far, with Q4 underway, the SPX is up a huge +21% a wild gain especially since everyone expected a recession at the start of the year. The Keybot the Quant program is up about +6% this year and the actual trading generated by the quant is up +10% thus far in 2024. Keybot exited QID and entered SSO.

10/13/24; 7:00 PM EST =
10/11/24; 10:00 AM EST =
10/8/24; 3:38 PM EST = +46; signal line is +40; go long 5755; (Benchmark SPX for 2024 = +20.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.8%; Keybot algo for 2024 = +5.9%)(Actual results this trade = +2.4%; Actual results for 2024 = +10.0%)
10/6/24; 7:00 PM EST = +46; signal line is +39 but algorithm remains short
10/4/24; 9:00 AM EST = +46; signal line is +39 but algorithm remains short
10/2/24; 10:01 AM EST = +46; signal line is +38 but algorithm remains short
10/1/24; 3:36 PM EST = +30; signal line is +37
10/1/24; 2:15 PM EST = +46; signal line is +38 but algorithm remains short
10/1/24; 10:20 AM EST = +30; signal line is +37
10/1/24; 9:52 AM EST = +46; signal line is +37 but algorithm remains short
9/30/24; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ3 = +32; signal line is +37
9/30/24; 2:23 PM EST = +32; signal line is +36; go short 5709; (Benchmark SPX for 2024 = +19.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = +1.7%; Keybot algo for 2024 = +6.7%)(Actual results this trade = +3.1%; Actual results for 2024 = +12.4%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short but is champing at the bit to go long. The price action remains wild with the VIX above 20. Expect more wild intraday and day to day price swings in stocks going forward.

If the SPX moves above 5753-5770 (depends on internal parameters), Keybot the Quant will likely flip long, hence the imminent turn notation in the title line. It will be key if the S&P futures are positive or negative overnight into the Monday session.

The bears need weaker chips, commodities and banks if they want to retain their stock market control. Bears need SOX under 5060, GTX below 3560 and XLF under 44.19. Any 1 of the 3 will immediately put the bears back in the pole position with stocks dropping. All 3 turning negative would send the stock market far lower.

If none of the 3 parameters turn bearish, the bears are in trouble and the bulls will likely takeover. However, the bulls need the VIX below 15.67 to verify that more upside for stocks is real and on the way. Bulls got nothing going forward, even if the quant flips bullish, unless the VIX falls below 15.67.

Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number on Friday morning. Focus on the SPX 5753, SOX 5060 and GTX 3560 bull/bear lines in the sand.

10/13/24; 7:00 PM EST = 
10/11/24; 10:00 AM EST = 
10/6/24; 7:00 PM EST = +46; signal line is +39 but algorithm remains short
10/4/24; 9:00 AM EST = +46; signal line is +39 but algorithm remains short
10/2/24; 10:01 AM EST = +46; signal line is +38 but algorithm remains short
10/1/24; 3:36 PM EST = +30; signal line is +37

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short as the port workers go on strike and Iran fires missiles at Israel. It is not a lovely day in the neighborhood. Today was funny. The chips skidded off the road and wrecked into a tree turning bearish creating stock market negativity, however, the commodities turn bullish. The bears are in charge but the algo number is only 7 points below the signal line.

The juxtaposition (how do you like that ten-dollar college word?) of chips and commodities adds a new twist to the stock market game. Bears need weaker banks and commodities if they want to create carnage. Bulls need stronger chips and lower volatility if they want to take control of the stock market again.

Bears need GTX below 3553 and it is only 22 points away from turning bearish. Bears need XLF below 44.19 which will also create market mayhem.

Bulls need SOX above 5050 and it is only 25 points away from turning bullish. Bulls need VIX below 15.67 which will also create market joy. Either one will place the quant in position to potentially flip long.

Condensing that further, it is a battle between chips and commodities. The cage match is set. Two will enter tomorrow but only one will exit and dictate the road ahead. Bears win big if they pull GTX below the 3553 palindrome. Bulls win big if they can push SOX above 5050. One of them will flinch. You do not need to watch the indexes. Watch the chips and commodities and they will tell you what the broad stock indexes will do. The SPX is at 5709 where it flipped short yesterday going nowhere fast.

10/6/24; 7:00 PM EST =
10/4/24; 9:00 AM EST =
10/1/24; 3:36 PM EST = +30; signal line is +37
10/1/24; 2:15 PM EST = +46; signal line is +38 but algorithm remains short
10/1/24; 10:20 AM EST = +30; signal line is +37
10/1/24; 9:52 AM EST = +46; signal line is +37 but algorithm remains short
9/30/24; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ3 = +32; signal line is +37
9/30/24; 2:23 PM EST = +32; signal line is +36; go short 5709; (Benchmark SPX for 2024 = +19.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = +1.7%; Keybot algo for 2024 = +6.7%)(Actual results this trade = +3.1%; Actual results for 2024 = +12.4%)