STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the bull side at SPX 5755 with only 20 minutes left in the trading session today.  The stock market has been bumping along unable to commit to the upside or downside. It would not be surprising to see a whipsaw this week. The algo number is only 6 points above the signal line so the bull's grip is not very strong.

Bulls need VIX below 16.00 and it is above 21. The rally got nothing until it can be proven with lower volatility. This is extremely odd and rare behavior because the stock market at or near all-time highs should see a VIX far lower at the 10-14 area right now. Something strange is occurring.

Bears need weaker chips, banks, copper and commodities. Copper may be recoiling. Watch the CPER 27.25 bull/bear line in the sand. Bank earnings in a couple days may create excitement.

On the last trade, that only ran for about a week, the quant program loses about a percent and the actual trading is down a couple percent. For the year thus far, with Q4 underway, the SPX is up a huge +21% a wild gain especially since everyone expected a recession at the start of the year. The Keybot the Quant program is up about +6% this year and the actual trading generated by the quant is up +10% thus far in 2024. Keybot exited QID and entered SSO.

10/13/24; 7:00 PM EST =
10/11/24; 10:00 AM EST =
10/8/24; 3:38 PM EST = +46; signal line is +40; go long 5755; (Benchmark SPX for 2024 = +20.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.8%; Keybot algo for 2024 = +5.9%)(Actual results this trade = +2.4%; Actual results for 2024 = +10.0%)
10/6/24; 7:00 PM EST = +46; signal line is +39 but algorithm remains short
10/4/24; 9:00 AM EST = +46; signal line is +39 but algorithm remains short
10/2/24; 10:01 AM EST = +46; signal line is +38 but algorithm remains short
10/1/24; 3:36 PM EST = +30; signal line is +37
10/1/24; 2:15 PM EST = +46; signal line is +38 but algorithm remains short
10/1/24; 10:20 AM EST = +30; signal line is +37
10/1/24; 9:52 AM EST = +46; signal line is +37 but algorithm remains short
9/30/24; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ3 = +32; signal line is +37
9/30/24; 2:23 PM EST = +32; signal line is +36; go short 5709; (Benchmark SPX for 2024 = +19.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = +1.7%; Keybot algo for 2024 = +6.7%)(Actual results this trade = +3.1%; Actual results for 2024 = +12.4%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short but is champing at the bit to go long. The price action remains wild with the VIX above 20. Expect more wild intraday and day to day price swings in stocks going forward.

If the SPX moves above 5753-5770 (depends on internal parameters), Keybot the Quant will likely flip long, hence the imminent turn notation in the title line. It will be key if the S&P futures are positive or negative overnight into the Monday session.

The bears need weaker chips, commodities and banks if they want to retain their stock market control. Bears need SOX under 5060, GTX below 3560 and XLF under 44.19. Any 1 of the 3 will immediately put the bears back in the pole position with stocks dropping. All 3 turning negative would send the stock market far lower.

If none of the 3 parameters turn bearish, the bears are in trouble and the bulls will likely takeover. However, the bulls need the VIX below 15.67 to verify that more upside for stocks is real and on the way. Bulls got nothing going forward, even if the quant flips bullish, unless the VIX falls below 15.67.

Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number on Friday morning. Focus on the SPX 5753, SOX 5060 and GTX 3560 bull/bear lines in the sand.

10/13/24; 7:00 PM EST = 
10/11/24; 10:00 AM EST = 
10/6/24; 7:00 PM EST = +46; signal line is +39 but algorithm remains short
10/4/24; 9:00 AM EST = +46; signal line is +39 but algorithm remains short
10/2/24; 10:01 AM EST = +46; signal line is +38 but algorithm remains short
10/1/24; 3:36 PM EST = +30; signal line is +37

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short as the port workers go on strike and Iran fires missiles at Israel. It is not a lovely day in the neighborhood. Today was funny. The chips skidded off the road and wrecked into a tree turning bearish creating stock market negativity, however, the commodities turn bullish. The bears are in charge but the algo number is only 7 points below the signal line.

The juxtaposition (how do you like that ten-dollar college word?) of chips and commodities adds a new twist to the stock market game. Bears need weaker banks and commodities if they want to create carnage. Bulls need stronger chips and lower volatility if they want to take control of the stock market again.

Bears need GTX below 3553 and it is only 22 points away from turning bearish. Bears need XLF below 44.19 which will also create market mayhem.

Bulls need SOX above 5050 and it is only 25 points away from turning bullish. Bulls need VIX below 15.67 which will also create market joy. Either one will place the quant in position to potentially flip long.

Condensing that further, it is a battle between chips and commodities. The cage match is set. Two will enter tomorrow but only one will exit and dictate the road ahead. Bears win big if they pull GTX below the 3553 palindrome. Bulls win big if they can push SOX above 5050. One of them will flinch. You do not need to watch the indexes. Watch the chips and commodities and they will tell you what the broad stock indexes will do. The SPX is at 5709 where it flipped short yesterday going nowhere fast.

10/6/24; 7:00 PM EST =
10/4/24; 9:00 AM EST =
10/1/24; 3:36 PM EST = +30; signal line is +37
10/1/24; 2:15 PM EST = +46; signal line is +38 but algorithm remains short
10/1/24; 10:20 AM EST = +30; signal line is +37
10/1/24; 9:52 AM EST = +46; signal line is +37 but algorithm remains short
9/30/24; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ3 = +32; signal line is +37
9/30/24; 2:23 PM EST = +32; signal line is +36; go short 5709; (Benchmark SPX for 2024 = +19.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = +1.7%; Keybot algo for 2024 = +6.7%)(Actual results this trade = +3.1%; Actual results for 2024 = +12.4%)