STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the short side yesterday at munch time at SPX 5799. Copper and chips sink the stock market. The algo number is only 16 points below the signal line so the stock market remains a coin flip.

The bears have the ball and need further weakness in copper and chips and must also pull commodities, retail stocks and banks lower. Bears need GTX below 3575 and RTH below 214.80 to kick-in heavy stock market selling.

Bulls need to pull copper and chips back into their camp; CPER above 27.40 and/or SOX above 5141, respectively. This represents about a +0.7% rise in copper futures and a +0.2% gain in semiconductors. It is easy to see that the bulls can quickly position themselves in the driver's seat again.

Copper futures are up +0.9% in the early morning hours on the East Coast so CPER may be in position to turn bullish after the opening bell. You can look at SMH or individual chip plays in the pre-market to see if SOX wants to turn bullish again.

On the last trade, that ran for a couple weeks, the quant program and actual trading generated by the quant, gain about a percent. For the year thus far, the SPX benchmark is up a huge +22%. That is funny considering everyone was expecting recession and sadness in stocks this year. The Keybot the Quant algorithm is up about +7% this year and the actual trading generated by the quant is up +11% in 2024 underperforming the benchmark S&P 500 by 11 percentage points. Keybot exited SSO and entered SDS.

A pre-scheduled number prints tomorrow morning after the opening bell. Stay alert for a potential whipsaw back to the long side. Copper and chips tell you what the stock market is doing.

10/27/24; 7:00 PM EST =
10/25/24; 10:00 AM EST =
10/23/24; 12:56 PM EST = +14; signal line is +30
10/23/24; 12:31 PM EST = +30; signal line is +31; go short 5799; (Benchmark SPX for 2024 = +21.6%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.8%; Keybot algo for 2024 = +6.7%)(Actual results this trade = +1.3%; Actual results for 2024 = +11.3%)
10/23/24; 9:36 AM EST = +30; signal line is +31 but algorithm remains long
10/22/24; 9:56 AM EST = +46; signal line is +31
10/21/24; 3:59 PM EST = +32; signal line is +31
10/21/24; 11:18 AM EST = +16; signal line is +31 but algorithm remains long
10/20/24; 7:00 PM EST = +32; signal line is +31
10/18/24; 9:36 AM EST = +32; signal line is +32 but algorithm remains long
10/18/24; 9:00 AM EST = +16; signal line is +32 but algorithm remains long
10/17/24; 11:18 AM EST = +16; signal line is +33 but algorithm remains long
10/17/24; 9:57 AM EST = +32; signal line is +33 but algorithm remains long
10/17/24; 9:36 AM EST = +16; signal line is +34 but algorithm remains long
10/16/24; 12:45 PM EST = +32; signal line is +35 but algorithm remains long
10/16/24; 11:12 AM EST = +16; signal line is +35 but algorithm remains long
10/16/24; 9:36 AM EST = +32; signal line is +37 but algorithm remains long
10/15/24; 3:54 PM EST = +16; signal line is +37 but algorithm remains long
10/15/24; 3:37 PM EST = +0; signal line is +39 but algorithm remains long
10/15/24; 9:41 AM EST = +16; signal line is +40 but algorithm remains long
10/15/24; 9:36 AM EST = +32; signal line is +41 but algorithm remains long
10/13/24; 7:00 PM EST = +46; signal line is +42
10/11/24; 10:00 AM EST = +46; signal line is +41
10/8/24; 3:38 PM EST = +46; signal line is +40; go long 5755; (Benchmark SPX for 2024 = +20.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.8%; Keybot algo for 2024 = +5.9%)(Actual results this trade = +2.4%; Actual results for 2024 = +10.0%)