STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long with another sleepy week occurring into the holiday today. Happy Juneteenth, brah.

The quant prints the prescheduled number and the bulls remain in control of the stock market with the algo number 13 points above the signal line. It is nothing to write home about.

As previously mentioned, the quant continues tracking financials, copper and volatility. All 3 metrics are bullish keeping the stock market buoyant. Bears need XLF below 49.93, CPER below 29.65 and/or VIX above 22.69. Any 1 of the 3 will place the quant in position for an imminent turn to the short side.

If any 1 of the 3 metrics turn bearish tomorrow, and the SPX drops below 5972 trending lower, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short. The banks are key. As the banks go, so goes the stock market. You can check XLF and the bank tickers in the pre-market to see what will happen. Copper futures would need to drop about -2.3% to help the bears.

If stocks drop but the VIX remains below 22.69, the bears got nothing and the bulls will reexert themselves. If the VIX moves above 22.69, it is lights-out for stocks.

Utilities will likely come back into play next week. UTIL 1018 will spell trouble, same as this week, and price is at 1032. UTIL dropped to touch 1018 and immediately recover; if you blinked, you missed it. If UTIL loses 1018, stocks are in big trouble going forward and then if 1010 is lost, the stock market will go into a crash profile. Lots of fun is ahead.

For now, it is time to have fun and acknowledge the fact that slavery does not exist in America anymore but continues around the world every day; such as the Uyghurs in dirtbag communist China enslaved by Dictator Xi and his CCP henchmen. The Uyghurs will never see a Juneteenth; the world is an ugly place. Hold On.

6/22/25; 7:00 PM EST =
6/18/25; 9:00 AM EST = +60; signal line is +47
6/15/25; 7:00 PM EST = +60; signal line is +46

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long with the new week of trading ahead. The regular Sunday number prints and the robot is tracking banks, copper and volatility as the three key metrics controlling stock market direction currently. All 3 are bullish creating the ongoing buoyancy in equities.

The bull/bear lines in the sand are XLF 49.91, CPER 29.54 and VIX 22.48. Since the financials failed on Friday, but recovered, they are the major focus of the quant currently. As banks go, so goes the stock market. Check XLF in the pre-market Monday morning and you will know how the day will go.

Copper and VIX futures trade overnight so they will provide a heads-up on how the stock market will move. The bears need copper futures to be down -0.8% or more overnight to spell trouble ahead for stocks. Also, the bears need the VIX to pop above, and track higher, from 22.48, otherwise they got buptkis. Even if stocks sell off, but the VIX does not go above 22.48, the selloff is phony baloney and stocks will recover. Bears win big if VIX moves above 22.48.

If any 1 of the 3 metrics turn bearish, consider the imminent turn to the short side to be in play for the robot and if the SPX is below 5963 and tracking lower, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short.

Keybot the Quant prints one prescheduled number this week on hump day.

The FOMC meeting is Tuesday and Wednesday with Pope Powell bringing the tablets down from On High on hump day that will tell traders how to trade. Stocks are buoyant and bullish about 80% of the time going into a Fed meeting so early week will be interesting. Israel is now bombing Iran's oil refineries and storage facilities so oil futures should continue tracking higher. There were no oil installations hit on the first bombing when stocks were trading on Friday. Also, Israel says the war will continue for weeks not days.

6/22/25; 7:00 PM EST =
6/18/25; 9:00 AM EST = 
6/15/25; 7:00 PM EST = +60; signal line is +46
6/13/25; 3:09 PM EST = +60; signal line is +45

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long after a sleepy, slow, uneventful week ends in turmoil. Israel attacks Iran to stop its uranium enrichment and work towards building a bomb. The bullishness is off the charts these days. Traders and investors are buying any dip with glee even as bombs drop.

The quant did not print any numbers the whole week until today starting with the pre-scheduled number. After lunch, the banks failed. That drove stocks lower creating the afternoon sogginess. Banks recovered into the closing bell so the bears are left at the altar once again.

On Monday, all that matters are banks, copper and volatility. Both copper and volatility will trade overnight into Monday for a heads-up on what is going to happen. Banks are important and will likely send the stock market in the same direction they travel next week.

If any of the three metrics turn bearish, Keybot the Quant will likely flip to the short side. The numbers of interest can be pulled from the robot after the Sunday print. XLF 49.91 is the bull/bear line in the sand that controls market direction. XLF finished the week at 49.96 only a nickel bullish so anything can happen on Monday.

No one talked about Friday the 13th today. Probably because of the chaos everywhere. Or maybe they are not superstitious like Stevie in the gang. Funky cool.

6/15/25; 7:00 PM EST =
6/13/25; 3:09 PM EST = +60; signal line is +45
6/13/25; 2:38 PM EST = +44; signal line is +44 but algorithm remains long
6/13/25; 10:00 AM EST = +60; signal line is +44
6/8/25; 7:00 PM EST = +60; signal line is +43

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long the stock market with the algo number 17 points above the signal line. The bullishness is off the charts these days with confetti tossed even if stocks only advance a smidgeon.

Commodities, copper and utilities are key. If the dollar pops going forward, commodities should sink. GTX 3648, CPER 29.48 and UTIL 1013 are the key bull/bear lines in the sand to watch to begin the new week of trading. Any one turning bearish will likely place the quant in position to go short.

For now, the bulls do not have a care in the world and all traders believe stocks will go up forever. It will be interesting to see how it plays out. Keybot the Quant prints one prescheduled number this week on Friday morning; Friday the 13th. Bad Luck. Back in the CBGB days with the wife-beater tee-shirts.

6/15/25; 7:00 PM EST =
6/13/25; 10:00 AM EST =
6/8/25; 7:00 PM EST = +60; signal line is +43
6/6/25; 9:00 AM EST = +60; signal line is +41
6/4/25; 3:59 PM EST = +60; signal line is +40
6/4/25; 3:14 PM EST = +46; signal line is +39
6/4/25; 9:36 AM EST = +60; signal line is +38
6/3/25; 3:15 PM EST = +46; signal line is +38
6/3/25; 9:36 AM EST = +60; signal line is +37
6/2/25; 3:06 PM EST = +46; signal line is +36

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant whipsaws back to the long side yesterday at SPX 5925. Copper and commodities jump higher to begin the week carrying the stock market higher. Today, sogginess reenters. Copper and commodities are weak.

CPER 29.42 and GTX 3640 are key bull/bear lines in the sand. GTX gave up the ghost late-day yesterday so the focus is on copper. Copper futures need to drop about -3.2% to help the bears but is down -2.6% right now.

If CPER loses 29.42, and the SPX drops below 5861, Keybot the Quant will likely want to flip short but that is a tall ask for today (SPX likely needs to drop about -75 points to flip the model short).

On the last trade that lasted about 8-1/2 hours, a whipsaw, the quant program loses about a percent and the actual trading generated by the quant loses a couple percent. For the year, with only 20 trading days remaining in H1, the benchmark S&P 500 is dead flat. The Keybot the Quant algo program is up about +16% and the actual trading is up about +19%. Due to the whipsaw, the quant drops into the 1x ETF's again for 30 days because it senses that there is choppy slop ahead and it wants to reduce risk. Keybot the Quant exited SDS and entered SPY. Stay alert for another potential Whipsaw back to the short side this week.

6/8/25; 7:00 PM EST =
6/6/25; 9:00 AM EST =
6/2/25; 3:06 PM EST = +46; signal line is +36
6/2/25; 2:51 PM EST = +60; signal line is +35
6/2/25; 2:23 PM EST = +46; signal line is +35; go long 5925 (Benchmark SPX for 2025 = +0.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.1%; Keybot algo for 2025 = +15.6%)(Actual results this trade = -2.2%; Actual results for 2025 = +18.8%)
6/2/25; 2:09 PM EST = +46; signal line is +35 but algorithm remains short
6/2/25; 9:36 AM EST = +60; signal line is +35 but algorithm remains short
6/1/25; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +30; signal line is +35
5/30/25; 12:31 PM EST = +30; signal line is +35; go short 5859 (Benchmark SPX for 2025 = -0.4%)(Keybot algo this trade = +11.5%; Keybot algo for 2025 = +16.7%)(Actual results this trade = +11.5%; Actual results for 2025 = +21.0%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short from Friday. Copper futures explode +5% higher because the bulls know what they need to goose to keep the stock market buoyant. S&P futures, however, are down about -30 points. The roller coaster of mixed signals continues. The quant likely needs about 10 SPX points or higher to whipsaw the model back to the long side so if the bulls want it, they need to turn around the negative futures by about 40 points.

The VIX 22.16 bull/bear line in the sand holds a lot of clout. VIX is trading at 20 now (in the bull camp; volatility moves inversely to stocks) about 4 hours before the opening bell for the regular trading session in the US.

Bulls remain in the game and can take the ball back as long as the VIX remains below 22.16. If VIX moves above 22.16, stocks will fall apart.

Keybot the Quant prints one prescheduled number this week on Friday morning before the opening bell.

6/8/25; 7:00 PM EST =
6/6/25; 9:00 AM EST =
6/1/25; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +30; signal line is +35
5/30/25; 12:31 PM EST = +30; signal line is +35; go short 5859 (Benchmark SPX for 2025 = -0.4%)(Keybot algo this trade = +11.5%; Keybot algo for 2025 = +16.7%)(Actual results this trade = +11.5%; Actual results for 2025 = +21.0%)