STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short as the stock market crazy ride continues. The bulls had one arm of Miss Commodities and the bears had the other arm and they spent the day dragging her from one camp, to the other, then back again, and back, and back, and by the time the fight was over, the stock market is basically where it started. The struggle was like a fight between Batman and the Penguin. Bam! Pow! Thwack! Bonk! 

It appears that traders want to wait for tomorrow morning when inflation will lift its skirt and reveal what is underneath. If inflation comes in tame below expectations, the rate cut for September will look like a go and stocks may rally. If inflation meets expectations or one tick above, that would be expected and keep the door open to rate cuts but it will not tell a lot. If tariffs start to bite harder, and the inflation numbers beat by two or more ticks and the data appear to be running higher going forward, that puts the September rate cut into question and would likely create a sour mood for equities.

Keybot the Quant, however, is a robot and only sees 1's and 0's. Same-o set-up as last evening. The algo is champing at the bit to go long with the algo number 6 points above the signal line. If the SPX moves above 6407 tomorrow going higher, Keybot the Quant will likely flip long. Thus, mathematicians say thus a lot, that is why they are never invited to parties, S&P futures will need to rally +34 points overnight (currently negative down -3).

Bears need GTX below 3757.10 to close the door on the bull's hopes. It is only pennies away and this metric was the cause of all of today's commotion. Commodities commotion. Little Eva and the Loco-motion. A fave at all high school dances across America during the 1960's and 1970's and then the song was redone in recent years by other artists.

Bears need XLF below 51.66 only pennies away. Either parameter turning bearish will guarantee the bear path going forward. If both fail, that will hint that stocks are in the process of falling apart. Commodities and banks are controlling stock market direction currently.

Thus, if bullish, you want SPX 6407 to wave the banner of victory going forward. If bearish, you want to see GTX lose 3757 and/or XLF lose 51.66 and if both fail, you will be throwing confetti as screens turn blood red. The Beat Goes On.

8/17/25; 7:00 PM EST =
8/15/25; 10:00 AM EST =
8/11/25; 2:01 PM EST = +44; signal line is +38 but algorithm remains short
8/11/25; 1:43 PM EST = +30; signal line is +38
8/11/25; 12:31 PM EST = +44; signal line is +39 but algorithm remains short
8/11/25; 11:55 AM EST = +30; signal line is +39
8/11/25; 11:27 AM EST = +44; signal line is +40 but algorithm remains short
8/11/25; 10:47 AM EST = +30; signal line is +41
8/10/25; 7:00 PM EST = +44; signal line is +42 but algorithm remains short