STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short with the robot off to an active start for Thursday. The bears remain in control of the stock market but the algo number is only 2 measly points below the signal line.

Volatility is playing a top role in the stock market drama. Watch VIX 16.70 the bull/bear line in the sand. Above and bears win with stocks selling off. Below and bulls win with stocks stabilizing and starting a new rally. VIX falls to 16.46 right now so the bulls are winning this minute.

XLF 52.87 and XRT 84.17 are two more lines in the sand and prices remain below so the bears are happy about this.

GTX 3834 is the commodities line in the sand with price at 3889 creating stock market bullishness.

Thus, VIX and GTX are creating market joy while XRT and XLF create market angst. 1 of the 4 will flinch and send stocks in that direction. Simply watch those lines in the sand. The VIX 16.70 line in the sand is key today. Bears are hanging on by their fingernails. You Give Love a Bad Name. Paint your smile, on your lips, blood red nails on your fingertips.

11/2/25; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
10/30/25; 9:52 AM EST = +27; signal line is +29
10/30/25; 9:36 AM EST = +13; signal line is +28
10/30/25; 9:17 AM EST = +27; signal line is +28
10/30/25; 9:10 AM EST = +13; signal line is +27
10/30/25; 3:06 AM EST = +27; signal line is +27 but algorithm remains short
10/29/25; 3:19 PM EST = +13; signal line is +26

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the short side at SPX 6856 at 2:41 PM EST this afternoon as Pope Powell was tap-dancing in front of reporters. Banks, volatility and retail stocks all failed today sending equities down the rabbit hole. The Fed tried to push volatility lower into the close accounting for the recovery in the stock indexes but the VIX beach ball would not stay underwater.

Traders hit the sell button when Chairman Powell said a 12/10/25 rate cut is not a foregone conclusion. The quant is active today spitting out 7 numbers and flipping short. The bears are in control of the stock market with the algo number 13 points below the signal line. Stay alert for a potential whipsaw tomorrow although the tech earnings this evening are sh*tting the bed and will likely create soggy futures into tomorrow.

VIX 16.70, XRT 84.17 and XLF 52.83, volatility, retail stocks and banks, respectively, are driving the stock market to and fro. All 3 are bearish creating todays gloom. Bears need to keep all 3 bearish and deteriorating further while also trying to weaken commodities and pull GTX below 3835 to cause real trouble.

The bulls need any 1 of the 3 bearish metrics above to turn bullish and that will stabilize the stock market and prevent anymore downside in equities. Bulls need VIX below 16.70, you can check this overnight, XRT above 84.17 and/or XLF above 52.83. Any 1 of the 3 would do. These three parameters will tell you the story on the stock market.

On the last trade that ran for only 9 days, the quant program gains a couple percent and the actual trading gains about +4%. For the year, the benchmark SPX is up nearly +17% a bigtime year if it holds. The Keybot the Quant program is up +27% on the year and the actual trading generated by the quant is up a humungous +34% thus far this year. Put that in your pipe, or bong, and smoke it. Can't Believe We're Here. Keybot exited SSO and entered QID remaining in 2x leveraged ETF's.

11/2/25; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
10/29/25; 3:19 PM EST = +13; signal line is +26
10/29/25; 3:00 PM EST = +27; signal line is +26 but algorithm remains short
10/29/25; 2:41 PM EST = +13; signal line is +25; go short 6856 (Benchmark SPX for 2025 = +16.6%)(Keybot algo this trade = +2.2%; Keybot algo for 2025 = +26.8%)(Actual results this trade = +4.2%; Actual results for 2025 = +34.0%)
10/29/25; 1:12 PM EST = +29; signal line is +26
10/29/25; 11:27 AM EST = +43; signal line is +26
10/29/25; 9:52 AM EST = +29; signal line is +26
10/29/25; 9:36 AM EST = +43; signal line is +27
10/28/25; 10:00 AM EST = +59; signal line is +26
10/26/25; 7:00 PM EST = +59; signal line is +25
10/24/25; 10:00 AM EST = +59; signal line is +22
10/24/25; 9:37 AM EST = +59; signal line is +21
10/24/25; 8:36 AM EST = +43; signal line is +19
10/21/25; 1:26 PM EST = +29; signal line is +17
10/21/25; 11:22 AM EST = +45; signal line is +17
10/21/25; 9:51 AM EST = +31; signal line is +15
10/21/25; 9:42 AM EST = +45; signal line is +15
10/20/25; 9:37 AM EST = +29; signal line is +15; go long 6711 (Benchmark SPX for 2025 = +14.1%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.3%; Keybot algo for 2025 = +24.6%)(Actual results this trade = -0.6%; Actual results for 2025 = +29.8%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long as the euphoric bull rally continues in the stock market. The bulls are in full control of stocks with the algo number 34 points above the signal line. It is a simple set-up for the week forward.

Volatility and banks are all that matter. Bears need VIX above 16.96 and XLF below 52.86 to turn equities sour. If 1 of the 2 parameters turn bearish, consider the caution flag to be out. If both turn bearish, consider that the imminent turn to the short side is in play.

If both parameters turn bearish, and the SPX drops below 6772 trending lower, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short. VIX will be trading in the early hours tomorrow and XLF can be checked pre-market to find out what will happen in the day ahead. Obviously, if both metrics remain in the bull camp, stocks will remain elevated with more all-time record highs likely.

On Friday, 10/24/25, the SPX prints the highest number in history at 6807.11. It is time for the "SPX 6.8K" hats. The all-time closing high is 6791.69 on Friday so bears need volatility and banks to turn bearish and for the SPX to drop about 20 points if they want to growl.

The quant prints one pre-scheduled number this week on Tuesday morning and the month of October ends on Friday on Halloween. November trading begins next Monday. The Halloween anthem is the Monster Mash a fun song.

11/2/25; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
10/28/25; 10:00 AM EST =
10/26/25; 7:00 PM EST = +59; signal line is +25
10/24/25; 10:00 AM EST = +59; signal line is +22

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long with the algo number a big 37 points above the signal line. The bulls are cruising. Wheeee! Whoopie! The bulls are in party mode after the tame inflation data means the Fed will lower rates and print money for as far as the eye can see. That dough flows into the stock market making the rich richer. It is beautiful crony capitalism filth. Rejoice! It is the weekend and time to go to Party Town. Glenn told the bears to kiss his *ss; it is party time, drink some Fed wine, and buy stocks.

VIX fell out of bed when the inflation data dropped so the fix was in. Futures ran higher like a banshee. After the cash open, banks (XLF) catapult higher taking the stock market to new all-time record highs. Bulls are throwing confetti and buying equities without a care in the world after they shoot the Fed crack into their arm. Voodoo. They buy stocks when they feel the Fed snakebite enter their veins.

Since the VIX 16.96 and XLF 52.86 bull/bear lines in the sand were blown through, these will need to reverse if the bears want to growl. If these two metrics remain in the bull camp, it is nothing but upside for stocks as the euphoric bull party continues. 

VIX is at 16.47 moving dead flat for the last half hour. Bears need the VIX 49 cents higher or they got nothing. XLF is at 53.12 slapping the bears in the face. Bears need a drop of 26 cents in XLF to create stock market sogginess and negativity.

Bulls want to try and keep stocks elevated into hump day next week when Pope Powell will bring the tablets down from On High and tell international traders how to trade.

10/26/25; 7:00 PM EST =
10/24/25; 10:00 AM EST = +59; signal line is +22
10/24/25; 9:37 AM EST = +59; signal line is +21
10/24/25; 8:36 AM EST = +43; signal line is +19
10/21/25; 1:26 PM EST = +29; signal line is +17

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long as the stock market oddities continue. Today it was all about the banksters and commodities. Banks rallied helping bulls but then fell on their sword in the afternoon. Commodities failed helping bears but an hour or so later they recover and 'all will be forgiven' as Jenny sings. Red Bull & Hennessy.

The bulls are in charge of the stock market with the algo number 12 points above the signal line. Tomorrow is the same-o set-up as today. XRT and GTX are in the bull camp creating stock market upside while XLF and VIX are in the bear camp creating downside. One of the four will flinch and stocks will go in that direction.

Bears need XRT below 84.12 and/or GTX below 3814. Either one will do to create the imminent turn to the shortside. If 1 of the 2 turn bearish, and the SPX drops below 6722 heading lower, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short.

Bulls need XLF above 52.86, where there was drama all day long today, to create the next leg higher in the stock market and more bullish euphoria. Bulls also need VIX below 16.96, now only a stick below current price, to begin party time with new all-time stock market records guaranteed. Choose your poison. Everybody has a Poison Heart. Salute to CBGB's.

Focus on XLF 52.86 and GTX 3814 since this was all the action today. Also, watch the VIX 16.96 line in the sand since the bulls are pushing volatility lower. These three will tell you what happens to the stock market tomorrow. You will know XLF and VIX before the cash open.

Bulls are trying to keep the stock market elevated until next Wednesday, 10/29/25, when Pope Powell brings the tablets down from On High and tells global traders how to trade.

10/26/25; 7:00 PM EST =
10/24/25; 10:00 AM EST = 
10/21/25; 1:26 PM EST = +29; signal line is +17
10/21/25; 11:22 AM EST = +45; signal line is +17
10/21/25; 9:51 AM EST = +31; signal line is +15
10/21/25; 9:42 AM EST = +45; signal line is +15
10/20/25; 9:37 AM EST = +29; signal line is +15; go long 6711 (Benchmark SPX for 2025 = +14.1%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.3%; Keybot algo for 2025 = +24.6%)(Actual results this trade = -0.6%; Actual results for 2025 = +29.8%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the long side at SPX 6711 after this morning's opening bell. Retail stocks and commodities jump into the bull camp driving the indexes higher. Everyone is doing the Wooly Bully with Sam the Sham and the Pharaohs. Hard-core bikers grooved to Sam the Sham in the 1960's and early 70's. Watch it now! Watch it!

The path ahead becomes trickier with more moving parts. The quant is tracking retail stocks, commodities, banks and volatility. That is the whole ball of wax controlling stock market direction. Retail stocks and commodities are bullish creating market lift while banks and volatility are bearish creating a pall on the stock market. One or two of the metrics will flip sides and tell you the path ahead.

The bull/bar lines in the sand are XRT 84.08, GTX 3814, XLF 52.87 and VIX 16.97, respectively. The bulls goosed XRT and GTX that are comfortably in the bull camp. XLF is at 52.79 only pennies away from 52.87 that will create another big up leg in the stock market with bulls throwing confetti. XLF trades at 52.83 only 4 pennies away in the after-hours trading. If the VIX falls below 16.97, the bulls will receive more juice as stocks will then strive to make new all-time record highs.

Obviously, the bears need to keep XLF and VIX in their camp while at the same time start smacking XRT and GTX lower. Interestingly, bears need XRT to turn bearish to place the quant in position to go short. GTX turning bearish may not be enough unless it jogs above and below 3814 a couple-few times.

If retail stocks fail into the bear camp, consider the imminent turn to the downside to be in play and if the SPX loses 6690 heading lower, Keybot the Quant will likely whipsaw back to the short side.

On the last trade that ran for only 10 days, the algo program and actual trading post marginal losses. For the year that is getting long in the tooth, the SPX is up  +14% with the quant program up +25% and the actual trading generated by the quant up +30% outperforming the benchmark by over 2x. Keybot the Quant exited SDS and entered SSO.

10/26/25; 7:00 PM EST =
10/24/25; 10:00 AM EST =
10/20/25; 9:37 AM EST = +29; signal line is +15; go long 6711 (Benchmark SPX for 2025 = +14.1%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.3%; Keybot algo for 2025 = +24.6%)(Actual results this trade = -0.6%; Actual results for 2025 = +29.8%)
10/20/25; 9:36 AM EST = +15; signal line is +16
10/19/25; 7:00 PM EST = -1; signal line is +16
10/17/25; 3:38 PM EST = -1; signal line is +18
10/17/25; 2:25 PM EST = +15; signal line is +19
10/17/25; 12:44 PM EST = -1; signal line is +20
10/17/25; 11:52 AM EST = +15; signal line is +21
10/17/25; 11:18 AM EST = -1; signal line is +22
10/17/25; 9:58 AM EST = +15; signal line is +23
10/17/25; 9:36 AM EST = -1; signal line is +24
10/17/25; 9:00 AM EST = +13; signal line is +25
10/16/25; 2:33 PM EST = +13; signal line is +26
10/16/25; 2:21 PM EST = -1; signal line is +28
10/16/25; 1:47 PM EST = +13; signal line is +29
10/16/25; 9:41 AM EST = +29; signal line is +31
10/15/25; 1:30 PM EST = +45; signal line is +32 but algorithm remains short
10/15/25; 1:18 PM EST = +31; signal line is +32
10/14/25; 11:56 AM EST = +45; signal line is +33 but algorithm remains short
10/14/25; 11:46 AM EST = +31; signal line is +33
10/14/25; 10:18 AM EST = +15; signal line is +34
10/14/25; 9:36 AM EST = -1; signal line is +35
10/13/25; 9:36 AM EST = +13; signal line is +37
10/12/25; 7:00 PM EST = -1; signal line is +39
10/10/25; 11:33 AM EST = -1; signal line is +41
10/10/25; 11:04 AM EST = +13; signal line is +43; go short 6692 (Benchmark SPX for 2025 = +13.8%)(Keybot algo this trade = +3.8%; Keybot algo for 2025 = +24.9%)(Actual results this trade = +7.0%; Actual results for 2025 = +30.4%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short the stock market with the algo number 17 points below the signal line. That is not much considering that key parameters such as retail stocks, banks and commodities, are all teetering on the edge of their bull/bear lines in the sand.

The cage match between retail stocks and commodities had both sides switching camps to the other side, a draw, but as the Friday session played out, the negativity prevailed with retail stocks.

Retail stocks, banks and commodities are all that matter to the stock market right now. XRT 84.04 is the line in the sand and price is at 84.02. Do you think Keybot is a smart robot to call out these numbers before they occur? The bulls only need two cents higher to pull the retail stocks back into their camp and create lift in the broad stock market. The bears must move XRT lower if they want to growl.

XLF 52.92 is the banksters line in the sand with price at 52.18. Watch it in the premarket to see the story forward. Bulls win big if XLF moves above 52.92; the upside stock market rally will continue. The bears need to keep XLF in their camp and heading lower to bring more negativity into the stock market.

GTX 3814.40 is the line in the sand, er grain, for the commodities. Price is at 3804 another metric sitting on the line in the bear camp. The bulls need GTX above 3814 heading higher to pave the road to more stock market gains. The bears need to keep GTX in their camp and heading lower to maintain and increase stock market selling pressure.

If any 2 of the 3 turn bullish, consider the imminent turn to the long side to be in play. Also, if only one metric turns bullish, and then jogs back to bearish, then bullish again, the quant is likely only focused on this metric and it will decide the path forward. Of course, if all 3 flip bullish, stocks will be leaping higher in a euphoric confetti atmosphere.

Copper remains in the bull camp supporting the stock market. Bears need a -3.2% drop in the red metal to create carnage in stocks.

Keybot the Quant prints one prescheduled number this week on Friday shortly after the opening bell. Write a note to yourself to watch the retail stocks such as AMZN, WMT, banksters such as JPM, BAC and C, and regionals that are on shaky ground, KRE, and commodities, GTX and CRB, also DBA, that reflect goods inflation. Take a Letter, Maria.

10/26/25; 7:00 PM EST =
10/24/25; 10:00 AM EST =
10/19/25; 7:00 PM EST = -1; signal line is +16
10/17/25; 3:38 PM EST = -1; signal line is +18
10/17/25; 2:25 PM EST = +15; signal line is +19
10/17/25; 12:44 PM EST = -1; signal line is +20
10/17/25; 11:52 AM EST = +15; signal line is +21
10/17/25; 11:18 AM EST = -1; signal line is +22
10/17/25; 9:58 AM EST = +15; signal line is +23
10/17/25; 9:36 AM EST = -1; signal line is +24
10/17/25; 9:00 AM EST = +13; signal line is +25
10/16/25; 2:33 PM EST = +13; signal line is +26

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short. It is an active week for the quant and it is not over yet. Retail stocks, banks and commodities are running the show. This week, all three metrics flipped bullish in quick order, that typically guarantees a model flip to the long side but not this time. Today, the same three metrics flip negative creating the stock market selloff. This drama will continue.

The bears are controlling the stock market with the algo number only 13 points below the signal line nothing to write home about. Stocks are chopping waiting for a definitive move up or down.

XRT 84.05, XLF 52.92, VIX 16.88 and GTX 3814.60 are the bull/bear lines in the sand. The first 3 are in the bear camp creating negativity while GTX (commodities) is helping the bulls by a hair.

GTX is at 3818 so you can cough and it may slip back below the 3814.60 line in the sand that will bring more stock market selling.

XRT is at 83.96 only 9 pennies in the bear camp so you can burp and it can pop back above the 84.05 in a heartbeat.

Thus, Friday will be a cage match after the prescheduled number prints pre-market. Two will enter but only one will exit and stocks will go in that direction. It is retail stocks versus commodities, XRT vs. GTX.

Bears will begin biting hard and wreak havoc in the stock market into the weekend if GTX loses 3814.60. Bulls will get a foothold on the market and push stocks higher if they can push XRT above 84.05. One of them will flinch and tell you the market story.

Watch copper futures because a couple percent drop would spell trouble for stocks and a drop of -3% or more will likely tank the stock market.

Is the stock market six feet from the edge perhaps taking One Last Breath?

10/19/25; 7:00 PM EST =
10/17/25; 9:00 AM EST =
10/16/25; 2:33 PM EST = +13; signal line is +26
10/16/25; 2:21 PM EST = -1; signal line is +28
10/16/25; 1:47 PM EST = +13; signal line is +29
10/16/25; 9:41 AM EST = +29; signal line is +31
10/15/25; 1:30 PM EST = +45; signal line is +32 but algorithm remains short
10/15/25; 1:18 PM EST = +31; signal line is +32
10/14/25; 11:56 AM EST = +45; signal line is +33 but algorithm remains short
10/14/25; 11:46 AM EST = +31; signal line is +33
10/14/25; 10:18 AM EST = +15; signal line is +34
10/14/25; 9:36 AM EST = -1; signal line is +35
10/13/25; 9:36 AM EST = +13; signal line is +37
10/12/25; 7:00 PM EST = -1; signal line is +39

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant flipped short on Friday after King Donnie tanked the stock market. The bears are controlling the stock market currently with the algo number 40 points below the signal line. The robot is tracking copper, commodities, banks, retail stocks and volatility as the key drivers of stock market direction. Copper is the only metric that is in the bull camp creating market lift; the other four are in the bear camp creating market angst and selling pressure.

The bull/bear lines in the sand, that will be a good judge for yinz for most of the week ahead, are CPER 29.58, GTX 3814.75, XLF 53.10, XRT 84, and VIX 16.60. Any move by these parameters across their lines in the sand sends the stock market in that same direction. Easy-peasy.

XRT is at 81 so that will be quite a lift to get back on the bull side. XLF is only about -2% below its critical number and that can be made up if the bankster earnings are joyful. It likely leads to long-time trouble and market downside if XLF cannot recover above 53.10 this week. Volatility shot skyward after Donnie's tariff comments and the bears are happy to see the VIX above 21. GTX is only a few dollars away from the bull/bear line in the sand so you can sneeze and it will pop back above.

CPER is +2.3% above the bull/bear line in the sand so the bulls will try to keep the red metal in their camp, otherwise, all hope will be lost for the stock market. Watch the copper futures.

What does all this mumbo-jumbo mean as the Pennsylvania leaves turn color and the Laurel Highlands lights-up in a brilliant Autumn display. California Dreamin'. They sure could sing.

XLF, GTX, VIX and CPER will tell the story for the week ahead. Check VIX and copper futures overnight for hints of what will happen in the US session. The bulls likely need all 3 metrics, banks, commodities, and volatility, to jump back into their camp to save the day and keep their rally hopes alive. Two of the three will likely not cut it. If copper drops more than -2%, it may place a crash on the table. It's fun.

Keybot the Quant prints one prescheduled number this week on Friday morning before the opening bell. Banks, commodities and copper are the focus as the new week begins.

10/19/25; 7:00 PM EST =
10/17/25; 9:00 AM EST =
10/12/25; 7:00 PM EST =-1; signal line is +39
10/10/25; 11:33 AM EST = -1; signal line is +41

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant flips short at SPX 6692 at 11:04 AM EST yesterday. A Black Friday occurs after President Trump slaps tariffs on China in retaliation for restrictions placed on rare earth minerals. The rift creates stock market angst.

The banksters failed first, then volatility, then commodities. Retail stocks were already floating in the toilet bowl. The robot has been champing at the bit to go short this month and finally finds the right entry. As always, stay alert for a potential whipsaw but the algo number is 42 points below the signal line a formidable deficit.

The quant is tracking commodities (GTX), volatility (VIX), and banks/financials (XLF). All 3 are in the bear camp creating market mayhem. The key bull/bear lines in the sand can be pulled from the quant tomorrow with the standard Sunday number.

On the last trade, that ran from late August to early October, a long trade for the Keybot the Quant robot, call it 2 months, the algorithm program gains almost +4% and the actual trading generated by the quant gains +7%. For the year thus far, with only 2-1/2 months of trading remaining, the benchmark S&P 500 is up almost +14%. The Keybot the Quant algo program is up about +25% this year and the actual trading is up a big +30% two times the benchmark. Keybot exited SSO and entered SDS remaining in the 2x ETF's. The bulls are Saying Goodbye to the rally like Ondara. 

10/12/25; 7:00 PM EST =
10/10/25; 11:33 AM EST = -1; signal line is +41
10/10/25; 11:04 AM EST = +13; signal line is +43; go short 6692 (Benchmark SPX for 2025 = +13.8%)(Keybot algo this trade = +3.8%; Keybot algo for 2025 = +24.9%)(Actual results this trade = +7.0%; Actual results for 2025 = +30.4%)
10/10/25; 11:03 AM EST = +13; signal line is +44 but algorithm remains long
10/10/25; 11:01 AM EST = +27; signal line is +46 but algorithm remains long
10/10/25; 10:00 AM EST = +43; signal line is +47 but algorithm remains long
10/10/25; 8:58 AM EST = +43; signal line is +48 but algorithm remains long
10/10/25; 8:40 AM EST = +29; signal line is +48 but algorithm remains long
10/10/25; 7:07 AM EST = +43; signal line is +49 but algorithm remains long
10/10/25; 5:48 AM EST = +29; signal line is +49 but algorithm remains long
10/9/25; 3:22 PM EST = +43; signal line is +50 but algorithm remains long
10/9/25; 9:58 AM EST = +29; signal line is +50 but algorithm remains long
10/8/25; 1:02 PM EST = +43; signal line is +52 but algorithm remains long
10/8/25; 11:34 AM EST = +29; signal line is +52 but algorithm remains long
10/8/25; 11:24 AM EST = +43; signal line is +53 but algorithm remains long
10/7/25; 11:12 AM EST = +29; signal line is +53 but algorithm remains long
10/7/25; 9:58 AM EST = +43; signal line is +54 but algorithm remains long
10/6/25; 10:45 AM EST = +59; signal line is +54
10/6/25; 9:36 AM EST = +45; signal line is +54 but algorithm remains long
10/6/25; 7:51 AM EST = +59; signal line is +54
10/6/25; 7:07 AM EST = +45; signal line is +53 but algorithm remains long
10/6/25; 4:58 AM EST = +59; signal line is +53
10/6/25; 4:32 AM EST = +45; signal line is +52 but algorithm remains long
10/5/25; 7:00 PM EST = +59; signal line is +52
10/3/25; 2:17 PM EST = +59; signal line is +52
10/3/25; 2:10 PM EST = +45; signal line is +51 but algorithm remains long
10/3/25; 9:00 AM EST = +59; signal line is +51
10/1/25; 5:18 AM EST = +59; signal line is +51
10/1/25; 3:06 AM EST = +45; signal line is +50 but algorithm remains long
9/30/25; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ3 = +59; signal line is +50
9/30/25; 10:00 AM EST = +59; signal line is +49
9/28/25; 7:00 PM EST = +60; signal line is +48
9/26/25; 10:00 AM EST = +60; signal line is +47
9/26/25; 7:39 AM EST = +60; signal line is +46
9/26/25; 7:27 AM EST = +46; signal line is +45
9/26/25; 7:14 AM EST = +60; signal line is +45
9/26/25; 6:53 AM EST = +46; signal line is +44
9/26/25; 5:12 AM EST = +60; signal line is +44
9/26/25; 4:55 AM EST = +46; signal line is +43
9/25/25; 2:43 PM EST = +60; signal line is +42
9/25/25; 1:45 PM EST = +46; signal line is +40
9/25/25; 10:16 AM EST = +46; signal line is +40
9/25/25; 7:48 AM EST = +46; signal line is +39
9/24/25; 1:12 PM EST = +60; signal line is +38
9/24/25; 12:00 PM EST = +46; signal line is +37
9/24/25; 9:48 AM EST = +60; signal line is +37
9/23/25; 3:50 PM EST = +44; signal line is +36
9/23/25; 2:56 PM EST = +30; signal line is +35 but algorithm remains long
9/21/25; 7:00 PM EST = +44; signal line is +35
9/17/25; 9:00 AM EST = +44; signal line is +35
9/14/25; 7:00 PM EST = +44; signal line is +35
9/12/25; 10:00 AM EST = +44; signal line is +35
9/7/25; 7:00 PM EST = +44; signal line is +35
9/5/25; 9:00 AM EST = +44; signal line is +35
9/4/25; 10:23 AM EST = +44; signal line is +35
9/4/25; 9:42 AM EST = +28; signal line is +34 but algorithm remains long
9/3/25; 3:48 PM EST = +44; signal line is +34
9/3/25; 1:45 PM EST = +28; signal line is +33 but algorithm remains long
9/3/25; 1:04 PM EST = +44; signal line is +34
9/3/25; 12:43 PM EST = +28; signal line is +33 but algorithm remains long
9/3/25; 12:24 PM EST = +44; signal line is +34
9/3/25; 12:16 PM EST = +28; signal line is +33 but algorithm remains long
9/3/25; 11:44 AM EST = +44; signal line is +33
9/3/25; 11:31 AM EST = +28; signal line is +33 but algorithm remains long
9/2/25; 2:56 PM EST = +44; signal line is +33
9/2/25; 2:54 PM EST = +30; signal line is +32 but algorithm remains long
9/2/25; 2:18 PM EST = +14; signal line is +33 but algorithm remains long
9/2/25; 2:00 PM EST = +28; signal line is +33 but algorithm remains long
9/2/25; 1:44 PM EST = +44; signal line is +34
9/2/25; 1:38 PM EST = +28; signal line is +34 but algorithm remains long
9/2/25; 10:48 AM EST = +14; signal line is +34 but algorithm remains long
9/2/25; 10:10 AM EST = +28; signal line is +35 but algorithm remains long
9/2/25; 9:57 AM EST = +44; signal line is +35
9/2/25; 9:56 AM EST = +30; signal line is +35 but algorithm remains long
9/2/25; 9:36 AM EST = +14; signal line is +35 but algorithm remains long
9/2/25; 8:15 AM EST = +30; signal line is +36 but algorithm remains long
8/31/25; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +44; signal line is +36
8/29/25; 10:00 AM EST = +44; signal line is +36
8/26/25; 10:00 AM EST = +44; signal line is +36
8/24/25; 7:00 PM EST = +44; signal line is +36
8/22/25; 10:02 AM EST = +44; signal line is +35; go long 6448 (Benchmark SPX for 2025 = +9.6%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.6%; Keybot algo for 2025 = +21.1%)(Actual results this trade = -2.4%; Actual results for 2025 = +23.4%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long as the market drama heats-up. Commodities are strong that will likely lead to goods inflation. The robot is champing at the bit to go short and fixated on retail stocks, volatility and banks. The bears want control of the stock market with the algo number 9 points below the signal line but the internal parameters will not fully latch yet to permit the move.

If the SPX drops below 6718 trending lower, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short, hence, the imminent turn notation is in the title line.

Retail stocks are holding down the bear camp with the XRT 84.74 line in the sand. Price is at 84.51 creating bearishness in the stock market.

Volatility and banks are helping the bulls maintain stock market buoyancy and create the new all-time record high at 6755.64 and new all-time closing high at 6753.72 yesterday, 10/8/25.

VIX 16.57 is the bull/bear line in the sand and it is trading in real-time at 16.50 only 7 pennies on the bull side. XLF 53.20 is the bull/bear line for the banksters with price at 53.51 only 31 cents away from disaster. The banks fell yesterday and no one noticed. XLF fell to 53.29 only 9 pennies away from creating market mayhem before recovering.

What does all this mumbo-jumbo mean? Bears win and the quant will likely flip short if the SPX loses 6718. If VIX pops back above 16.57 heading higher, stocks will deteriorate. If XLF loses 53.20, it is lights-out for the stock market that will tumbling lower. If stocks drop but the VIX and XLF remain bullish, the bears got nothing.

If stocks rally, but the VIX moves above 16.57 and remains above, stocks will reverse and move lower. Bulls need XRT above 84.74 to prove that they got game. If stocks rally, but XRT remains below 84.74, the bulls got nothing and stocks will reverse and start dropping.

VIX is at 16.48 (bullish). XRT sits at 84.51 (bearish). XLF is 53.51 unchanged in early trading (bullish). Let the festivities begin. One of these three will flinch. Have a nice day. Doris Day. Que Sera Sera.

10/12/25; 7:00 PM EST =
10/10/25; 10:00 AM EST =
10/8/25; 1:02 PM EST = +43; signal line is +52 but algorithm remains long
10/8/25; 11:34 AM EST = +29; signal line is +52 but algorithm remains long
10/8/25; 11:24 AM EST = +43; signal line is +53 but algorithm remains long
10/7/25; 11:12 AM EST = +29; signal line is +53 but algorithm remains long

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long after an exciting start to the week. Monday was more volatility games with the quant printing 6 numbers. Today the robot prints two numbers potentially paving the way to Hades. The algo number is 24 points below the signal line so the bears are champing at the bit to take control of the stock market. Alas, the internal parameters would not latch to permit the move, and then they all latched, but needed to hold it for 2 more minutes, but could not. All this drama occurred around 11 AM EST-ish this morning.

Volatility, banks and commodities remain key but retail stocks come out of left field tumbling lower down the hill for the last couple days, like Uncle Ralph at the summer picnic after he drank one too many highballs. XRT 84.65 is the bull/bear line in the sand that was vaporized this morning leading to much of the weakness in the stock market. Everyone is looking at tech and AI stocks but they forgot to look at retail stocks.

VIX jumped above the key 16.57 bull/bear line in the sand (remember, these numbers are constantly being calculated) and kept running above 17 today creating more stock market angst. Despite both retail stocks and volatility shunning the bull camp and now joining the bears, the robot did not flip short yet. If the SPX loses the 6700 level tomorrow, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short. This is a 15-point drop so check the S&P futures overnight to see if -15 points are on the board to set up Wednesday.

The bull/bear line in the sand for commodities is GTX 3823 and XLF 53.23 is the line in the sand for the banksters. It is a tag team match for hump day; retail stocks and volatility, in the bear corner, versus commodities and banks, in the bull corner. Interestingly, the bulls need both XRT back above 84.65 and VIX below 16.57 to save the day. Bulls are toast if they cannot drag these two metrics back into their camp.

Bears need the SPX below 6700 so the model can flip short. Also, GTX losing 3823 and XLF losing 53.23 will send stocks to Hell. If stocks rally, but retail stocks and volatility remain in the bear camp, the stock market will roll back over to the downside and fall apart. If stocks sell off, but a sustainable sub 6700 SPX cannot be attained, the quant will likely remain long. If stocks sell off, and XLF 53.23 and GTX 3823 will not fail, the bears do not have much oomph and stocks should chop sideways.

The SPX prints a new all-time high a 6754.49 today, the highest number in history. SPX 6700, retail stocks and volatility will tell you the story for tomorrow. It may be an historic day. Are the bears staging a New York Comeback a la Lucinda with Bruce singing back-up vocals? Two great songwriters. Lucinda took a stroke and cannot play guitar anymore but she can still sing.

10/12/25; 7:00 PM EST =
10/10/25; 10:00 AM EST =
10/7/25; 11:12 AM EST = +29; signal line is +53 but algorithm remains long
10/7/25; 9:58 AM EST = +43; signal line is +54 but algorithm remains long
10/6/25; 10:45 AM EST = +59; signal line is +54
10/6/25; 9:36 AM EST = +45; signal line is +54 but algorithm remains long
10/6/25; 7:51 AM EST = +59; signal line is +54
10/6/25; 7:07 AM EST = +45; signal line is +53 but algorithm remains long
10/6/25; 4:58 AM EST = +59; signal line is +53
10/6/25; 4:32 AM EST = +45; signal line is +52 but algorithm remains long
10/5/25; 7:00 PM EST = +59; signal line is +52

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long as volatility plays more games. VIX went above the 16.87 bull/bear line in the sand so stocks started falling apart. In comes the Fed, wrestling Uncle Vix to the ground and then maintaining their jackboot on his neck allowing stocks to recover. Alas, like a beachball that you try to hold underwater, the VIX pops higher again during the last 15 minutes of Friday trading but remains pennies below the key 16.87 at 16.65 in the bull camp. The Beach Boys down in Kokomo; no, they did not sing that 'Vermont's a rotten state' (like many people think they hear) they are actually singing Martinique, 'that Montserrat mystique'.

Banks and commodities are also only small amounts away from their bull/bear lines in the sand. Watch XLF 53.12 and GTX 3815, respectively. On Thursday, the bears pushed the banks down to XLF 53.06 but could not hold it.

The path forward depends upon VIX 16.87, XLF 53.12 and GTX 3815. All three are bullish creating buoyancy in the stock market. If any 1 of the 3 turn bearish, and the SPX falls below 6706 trending lower, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short. If 2 or all 3 turn bearish, it will likely be the start of stocks falling a long ways. Bulls only need to keep all 3 metrics in their camp and they remain on easy street swigging down Fed wine each day and buying any stock with a heartbeat.

The algo number is only 7 measly points above the signal line not exactly a ringing endorsement of the record-setting rally. On Friday, 10/3/25, the SPX prints a new all-time high at 6750.87, wowza, and a new all-time closing high at 6715.79. Stocks are a Runaway as Del sings.

Keybot prints one prescheduled number this week on Friday morning shortly after the opening bell. 

10/12/25; 7:00 PM EST =
10/10/25; 10:00 AM EST =
10/5/25; 7:00 PM EST = +59; signal line is +52
10/3/25; 2:17 PM EST = +59; signal line is +52
10/3/25; 2:10 PM EST = +45; signal line is +51 but algorithm remains long
10/3/25; 9:00 AM EST = +59; signal line is +51
10/1/25; 5:18 AM EST = +59; signal line is +51

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long as the bull party continues. Doctor Copper jumps off the gurney, runs out of the emergency room, and proclaims, "buy, buy, buy!" The banks are a wee bit soggy, hinting that they may become sick and in need of a hospital bed.

Yesterday was a repeat of the other day. In the pre-market hours when VIX is already trading, it spiked higher with S&P futures collapsing over -50 points, but a couple hours later all was fine. Volatility was pushed lower and held down with a Fed jackboot so stocks float higher.

The SPX prints a new all-time record high at 6718.48 and new all-time closing high at 6711.20 on 10/1/25. October, the month when stock market crashes tend to happen, starts off with a euphoric all-time historic high. Traders celebrate with SPX 6.7K hats and throwing confetti. The Fed wine and AI booze is flowing like water. Wall Street analysts say SPX 7K is a lock. The screenprinter, busy preparing SPX 6.8K hats, is happy as a pig in mud, counting on the steady business well into the future.

The stock market direction is currently controlled by volatility, banks and commodities. The bull/bear lines in the sand are VIX 16.87, XLF 53.12 and GTX 3817, respectively. All three are bullish creating buoyancy in the stock market (remember, volatility moves inverse to the stock market).

VIX is at 16.01 as this is typed less than 2 hours before the Thursday cash open, so the bulls are feeling good about the path forward. XLF is flat as a newlywed's souffle at 53.41 in pre-market trading only 29 pennies away from creating market mayhem. GTX begins at 3875.

As long as VIX is below 16.87 and XLF is above 53.12, the bull party continues. If either metric turns bearish, consider the imminent turn to the short side to be in play, and if the SPX then loses 6656, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short. If both parameters turn bearish, stocks will be falling like rocks. Roctober. I Wanna Rock.

10/5/25; 7:00 PM EST =
10/3/25; 9:00 AM EST =
10/1/25; 5:18 AM EST = +59; signal line is +51
10/1/25; 3:06 AM EST = +45; signal line is +50 but algorithm remains long
9/30/25; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ3 = +59; signal line is +50
9/30/25; 10:00 AM EST = +59; signal line is +49
9/28/25; 7:00 PM EST = +60; signal line is +48

Update Added Friday Morning, 10/3/25, at 7:30 AM EST: All of the above holds and watch SPX 6693 for when Keybot the Quant may flip short.