STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long as Santa is in the rearview mirror and the Christmas cookies grow stale. The bulls are in charge with the algo number 15 points above the signal line. Sectors and market metrics are bullish across the board celebrating the seasonal joy and keeping the robot long. However, there is one fly in the ointment. Utilities.

Utilities tell the tale for the stock market in the days ahead. UTIL 1088.89, call it 1089 and 1060.80, call it 1061, are two key bull/bear lines in the sand that dictate stock market direction currently. UTIL price will begin the new week of trading, the last 3 trading days of 2025, at 1070. This is the battle that will dictate who wins.

UTIL is at 1070 in the middle of 1089 and 1061. Thus, it is causing both bearishness and bullishness in the stock market that cancels each other out. For the bulls to continue to print record highs, they must push UTIL above 1089 asap (as soon as possible) and it will be wine and roses into the new year with nothing but blue skies, rainbows and unicorns.

If UTIL drops below 1061, a trap-door opens and the stock market will drop like a rock with other metrics then starting to join the negativity. If UTIL loses 1061, and the SPX drops below 6922 trending lower, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short. The bears can take it if they want it. Consider the imminent turn to the short side to be in play if UTIL loses 1061.

If UTIL remains between 1061 and 1089 this week, the stock market will chop along with sideways slop. Keybot the Quant prints one prescheduled number in the new week on Wednesday to close out the year. 2026 trading begins on Friday. It will be interesting to see if the trap-door opens and if the stock market will be hung until dead. The Hangman's Song. 

1/4/26; 7:00 PM EST =
12/31/25; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ4 EOY2025 =
12/28/25; 7:00 PM EST = +40; signal line is +25
12/23/25; 10:00 AM EST = +40; signal line is +25

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Merry Christmas. Keybot the Quant remains long as the holiday joy sends the stock market to new highs. The SPX prints a new all-time high at 6937.32 and new all-time closing high at 6932.05. The bears are tapped in the head by Santa's boot, like little Ralphie, and fall down the chute.

The Santa rally begins, up +0.3% so far, at Christmas Eve and runs through the first 2 days of the year. 1/2/26 would button the Santy rally up nicely on the Friday but let it ride into the Monday and typically the expectation is for US equities to be up marginally in this period or as much as a percent and a half.

The bulls are in charge with the algo number 15 points above the signal line. The utilities are the only thorn in the bull's keister.

Tomorrow is the last trading day of the week. UTIL 1101.14 is the key bull/bear line in the sand this week but next week it changes to 1088.89 and the 1101 is meaningless. Thus, mathematicians say thus a lot, that is why the invitation to the holiday party apparently got lost in the mail, watch UTIL, or DJU, 1089. It will tell you a lot about next week. UTIL begins at 1072.

If UTIL ends tomorrow below 1089, it sets up a negative week for the last week of the year for stocks. If UTIL runs above 1089, the bulls are unstoppable and plan on driving stocks straight vertical with a strong rally so obscene it will make Caligula blush. Bears must keep UTIL below 1089 over the coming days, through next week that is New Year's week, and they will have an easier path to wreaking havoc in January.

At the same time, if utilities are in a sour mood tomorrow, and UTIL drops below 1060, the other bull/bear line in the sand for utes, stocks will drop like rocks and there will be Hell to pay to begin the new year. Negativity will increase quickly.

Interestingly, despite the new highs, the bears can take it if they want it. If UTIL drops below 1060 tomorrow, and if the SPX falls below 6905 trending lower, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short. Utilities are running the show since they are the only negative thorn in Santa's rump. As utes go, so goes the stock market.

Only four trading days remain in 2025 and 2026 trading begins in only 8 calendar days, a week away, on 1/2/26. Commodities are running hot creating a potential problem for the Fed going forward. For now, the Federal Reserve maintains its jackboot on the throat of volatility to keep stocks buoyant through the holidays.

12/28/25; 7:00 PM EST =
12/23/25; 10:00 AM EST = +40; signal line is +25
12/22/25; 11:06 AM EST = +39; signal line is +24

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long with the algo number 15 points above the signal line. Utilities and commodities came to play today.

Out of the gate, utilities perform a faceplant falling through the trap-door at UTIL 1059-1060 but this failure is nullified by commodities running higher. Geopolitics and more AI hype send oil, gold, silver, copper, and other commodities strongly higher creating stock market joy. GTX crosses above its bull/bear line in the sand at GTX 3882.

The algo was champing at the bit to go short this morning after the opening bell but that was a pipe dream because stocks were jumping higher because someone coughed and it sounded like he said, "buy."

For Tuesday, that will print a prescheduled number at 10 AM EST, the bulls need UTIL over 1101 to prove that they can keep stocks elevated until the Santa Claus rally begins Wednesday and runs to Monday, 1/5/25. UTIL 11 hundo is the only obstacle in the bull's way that will begin the day at UTIL 1065. It is a tall order, but direction can tell you something. If UTIL not only does not want to go up, but it continues down and through 1060, there will be Hell to pay. It is only 5 points away. 

Bears need commodities to weaken. They created market joy today. Bears need GTX below the 3883 palindrome and that will create stock market trouble.

Bulls need UTIL above 1101 and there will be market joy through New Year's.

Bears need UTIL below 1060 where the wheels will immediately fall off the stock market bus. If GTX loses 3883, stocks will be dropping like rocks. If either parameter flips negative tomorrow, consider the imminent turn to be in play, and if the SPX moves below 6856, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short. The bears cannot say that they do not have a chance. So you're telling me there's a chance. All the bears need is weaker commodities and/or utilities, either one will do, and the SPX to drop 22 points.

12/28/25; 7:00 PM EST =
12/23/25; 10:00 AM EST =
12/22/25; 11:06 AM EST = +39; signal line is +24
12/22/25; 9:36 AM EST = +23; signal line is +24 but algorithm remains long
12/21/25; 7:00 PM EST = +25; signal line is +24

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long. The 3-1/2 months of sideways stock market slop continues. The bulls are in charge but the algo number is only 1 tiny point above the signal line. The bulls are holding on by their fingernails.

Utilities stumble lower and remains a sector that is extremely important. Utilities are now in a weekly downtrend as defined by the closing price 15 weeks ago (as per Norm Fosback decades ago) that foretells bad things for equities ahead. UTIL begins the week down at 1061 and would need to move above 1101 this week to regain an uptrend; a formidable task.

At the same time, real bad trouble occurs in stock markets if the UTIL 50-wk MA trap-door opens and that sits at 1059 only 2 tiny points away. If UTIL, or DJU, fall below 1059, stocks are in serious trouble and the SPX will likely puke-up at least 30 to 40 points in quick order and things would worsen from there.

It is extremely bad for the US stock market for utes to lead the broad market lower. It means the pullback will not be run of the mill. Instead, it means there is serious Hell to pay and a crash has to be placed on the table as a potential outcome. Thus, watch UTIL 1059 very closely to see if the gates of Hell open.

Commodities, chips and volatility also play an important role in stock market direction currently. Their bull/bear lines in the sand are GTX 3882, SOX 6860 and VIX 16.94, respectively. Volatility dropped last week as the Fed holds its jackboot on the neck of the VIX now with a 14-handle. SOX popped above 7K with traders refusing to believe that the coveted semiconductors can ever go down. The lower vol and higher chips created the market joy last week.

GTX climbs to 3866 only 16 points away from the 3882 line in the sand. Bulls need GTX above 3882 and the stock market rally has legs higher. Bulls need UTIL above 1101 and stocks will be launching into the stratosphere.

The bears need UTIL below 1059 and the wheels will immediately fall off the stock market happy bus. If VIX pops above 16.94 and/or SOX drops below 6860, the rout will be on. Santa will be getting whipped and running for his life. If any 1 of these 3 metrics turn bearish, and the SPX drops below 6793 trending lower, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short. It will be an interesting week of 1's and 0's.

Higher commodities and utes will give bulls further life, while lower utes and chips, and higher volatility will create market strife and leave a lump of coal in the bull's Christmas stocking. The stock market is closed on Thursday for Christmas. Kids love to hear Frosty the Snowman this time of year. Big kids, too.

12/28/25; 7:00 PM EST =
12/23/25; 10:00 AM EST =
12/21/25; 7:00 PM EST = +25; signal line is +24
12/19/25; 10:16 AM EST = +25; signal line is +24
12/19/25; 10:02 AM EST = +41; signal line is +24
12/19/25; 10:00 AM EST = +25; signal line is +24
12/18/25; 12:39 PM EST = +25; signal line is +24
12/18/25; 12:20 AM EST = +11; signal line is +24 but algorithm remains long
12/18/25; 11:22 AM EST = +25; signal line is +25 but algorithm remains long
12/18/25; 10:29 AM EST = +41; signal line is +25; go long 6797 (Benchmark SPX for 2025 = +15.6%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.1%; Keybot algo for 2025 = +26.2%)(Actual results this trade = -0.3%; Actual results for 2025 = +33.5%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips long this morning at SPX 6797. The bears were celebrating their success at taking the ball but they fumble and the bulls retake control of stocks. The algo number is 16 points above the signal line. The bullish euphoria prevails! Happy Days Are Here Again.

Utilities, semiconductors and volatility are the parameters impacting market direction. The bulls will send stocks higher unless the bears can pull UTIL back below 1079, or SOX back below 6835, or push VIX above 17.00. Use these three metrics to gauge the strength of any downside.

If 1 of the 3 turn bearish, the quant will likely be in position to go short again so remain vigilant for another whipsaw. The circus continues. Inflation data was tame so that paves the way for more Fed rate cuts and, along with the QE light, that free money will flow into the stock market creating higher stocks to make the wealthy class richer. Three cheers for the crony capitalism filth! 

Utes, chips and volatility are what matter currently.

On the last trade that ran for a big 2 days, the quant program and actual trading post marginal losses. For the year, with only 8 trading days remaining in the year, the SPX is up about +16%, the quant program is up +26% and the actual trading generated by the quant is up +34%. Keybot the Quant exited SDS and entered SSO.

12/21/25; 7:00 PM EST =
12/19/25; 10:00 AM EST =
12/18/25; 10:29 AM EST = +41; signal line is +25; go long 6797 (Benchmark SPX for 2025 = +15.6%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.1%; Keybot algo for 2025 = +26.2%)(Actual results this trade = -0.3%; Actual results for 2025 = +33.5%)
12/18/25; 9:36 AM EST = +25; signal line is +25 but algorithm remains short
12/18/25; 8:36 AM EST = +9; signal line is +25
12/17/25; 10:56 AM EST = -5; signal line is +25
12/17/25; 10:50 AM EST = +9; signal line is +26
12/16/25; 2:34 PM EST = +25; signal line is +27
12/16/25; 2:17 PM EST = +11; signal line is +27
12/16/25; 1:41 PM EST = +25; signal line is +28
12/16/25; 12:55 PM EST = +11; signal line is +29
12/16/25; 10:50 AM EST = +25; signal line is +30
12/16/25; 10:26 AM EST = +11; signal line is +30
12/16/25; 9:53 AM EST = +25; signal line is +31
12/16/25; 9:46 AM EST = +11; signal line is +32; go short 6788 (Benchmark SPX for 2025 = +15.4%)(Keybot algo this trade = +1.7%; Keybot algo for 2025 = +26.3%)(Actual results this trade = +2.1%; Actual results for 2025 = +33.8%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is in the bear camp but the algo number is only 2 measly points below the signal line. The stock market remains a toss-up. Volatility ran the show today. The VIX 17.02 bull/bear line in the sand saw lots of action. The quant spit out 14 numbers today a very active session. VIX ends the day with a 16-handle so it is creating bullishness in stocks.

Utilities are a trip. Like San Francisco decades ago. Be sure to wear flowers in your hair. UTIL 1078.53 and UTIL 1058 are bull/bear lines in the sand this week. UTIL price is at 1075 causing both bullishness (above 1058) and bearishness (below 1079). Watch to see if one of these flinch since the stock market will go in that direction.

For next week, the 1079 is meaningless and replaced with 1101.14. This is important since price must rally from 1075 to above 1101 over the next 3 trading days. This will tell you a lot. If utes rally headed above 11 hundo, the end of year happy rally is likely. If, however, utes remain weak and move sideways to sideways lower, and especially if they lose the 1058, the stock market is going to go down hard.

Those 3 metrics above will likely tell you the direction of the stock market over the next couple days. The GTX 3878 line in the sand is important with price down at 3813 creating soggy stocks. The SOX 6840 line in the sand is key with price at 6948 so watch that closely. Stocks will go to Hell if SOX loses 6840.

Banks and copper are also important so you can watch XLF 53.40 and CPER 31.80 for the rest of the week.

Bears need VIX above 17.02 pronto or they got nothing. If successful, bears then need SOX below 6840 that will create stock market carnage and if UTIL loses 1058, it will be a bloodbath on Wall Street. That would be fun.

Bulls need UTIL above 1078.53 and/or GTX above 3878. Focus on utilities since price is at 1075 only a whisker away from 1079. Bulls will show that they have staying power and want the ball back if they can flip at least 1 of the 2 to the bull camp. Both will be needed to create a sustainable rally into the new year. If bulls fail to turn either parameter bullish, and then the VIX pops above 17.02, it is end times for stocks.

Lucy in the Sky with Diamonds (LSD) was a trippin' song by The Beatles, or was it? John said it was a coincidence that the song title spelled out LSD. You see Lucy in the sky with diamonds when you come to the surface in your Yellow Submarine.

12/21/25; 7:00 PM EST =
12/19/25; 10:00 AM EST =
12/16/25; 2:34 PM EST = +25; signal line is +27
12/16/25; 2:17 PM EST = +11; signal line is +27
12/16/25; 1:41 PM EST = +25; signal line is +28
12/16/25; 12:55 PM EST = +11; signal line is +29
12/16/25; 10:50 AM EST = +25; signal line is +30

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the short side this morning at SPX 6788 after the opening bell. Volatility and utilities turn sour emboldening the bears. It has been a fist-fight ever since, however. The bears have the stock market ball with the algo number only 5 measly points below the signal line. That is nothing to write home about so stay on guard for a whipsaw over the next day or two.

Utes, volatility, commodities and chips are running the show. Bears need VIX above 17.02 or they got nothing and will fold like your cheap JC Penney suit. If that occurs, bears will then begin carnage if SOX loses 6840 and then a crash would be on the table if UTIL loses 1058. Fun times.

The bulls must keep VIX below 17.02 and they can remain not-too-worried but at the same time they must push UTIL above 1078.53 to prove they got game. Bulls are going to choke if they cannot get UTIL above 1079. Bulls also benefit if commodities strengthen and GTX would rise above 3880.

Thus, mathematicians say thus a lot, that is why we are never invited to the holiday parties, bears need higher volatility, weaker chips, and weaker utilities.

Bulls need to maintain low volatility while pushing utilities and commodities higher if they want to wrestle back control of the stock market.

On the last trade, that ran for 3 weeks, the algorithm program gains a couple percent and ditto the actual trading generated by the quant. For the year, now down to the short strokes with only 10 trading days remaining, the benchmark SPX, the US stock market, is up +15%. The quant program is up +26% and the actual trading generated by the quant is up +34% outperforming the benchmark by over 2x. Keybot exits QLD and enters SDS.

The parameters above will tell you the direction of the stock market going forward. Valerie June is a unique artist and talent; her girlish voice grows on you. She does a great job with Let It Snow.

12/21/25; 7:00 PM EST =
12/19/25; 10:00 AM EST =
12/16/25; 10:50 AM EST = +25; signal line is +30
12/16/25; 10:26 AM EST = +11; signal line is +30
12/16/25; 9:53 AM EST = +25; signal line is +31
12/16/25; 9:46 AM EST = +11; signal line is +32; go short 6788 (Benchmark SPX for 2025 = +15.4%)(Keybot algo this trade = +1.7%; Keybot algo for 2025 = +26.3%)(Actual results this trade = +2.1%; Actual results for 2025 = +33.8%)
12/16/25; 9:01 AM EST = +41; signal line is +33
12/16/25; 9:00 AM EST = +41; signal line is +33
12/16/25; 6:39 AM EST = +41; signal line is +33
12/16/25; 5:59 AM EST = +27; signal line is +34 but algorithm remains long
12/16/25; 5:45 AM EST = +41; signal line is +35
12/16/25; 3:06 AM EST = +27; signal line is +35 but algorithm remains long
12/15/25; 2:57 PM EST = +41; signal line is +36
12/15/25; 10:47 AM EST = +25; signal line is +36 but algorithm remains long
12/15/25; 10:30 AM EST = +11; signal line is +36 but algorithm remains long
12/15/25; 9:36 AM EST = +25; signal line is +36 but algorithm remains long
12/14/25; 7:00 PM EST = +39; signal line is +35
12/10/25; 2:38 PM EST = +39; signal line is +33
12/10/25; 2:30 PM EST = +23; signal line is +31 but algorithm remains long
12/10/25; 2:12 PM EST = +39; signal line is +30
12/10/25; 1:59 PM EST = +23; signal line is +29 but algorithm remains long
12/10/25; 1:17 PM EST = +39; signal line is +28
12/10/25; 10:02 AM EST = +23; signal line is +26 but algorithm remains long
12/10/25; 9:59 AM EST = +9; signal line is +24 but algorithm remains long
12/10/25; 8:37 AM EST = +25; signal line is +23
12/10/25; 8:27 AM EST = +39; signal line is +22
12/10/25; 5:31 AM EST = +25; signal line is +19
12/7/25; 7:00 PM EST = +39; signal line is +17
12/5/25; 10:00 AM EST = +39; signal line is +15
12/2/25; 3:35 AM EST = +39; signal line is +13
12/1/25; 3:59 PM EST = +25; signal line is +11
12/1/25; 2:28 PM EST = +39; signal line is +11
12/1/25; 1:14 PM EST = +55; signal line is +9
12/1/25; 12:18 PM EST = +39; signal line is +7
12/1/25; 10:58 AM EST = +55; signal line is +5
12/1/25; 3:06 AM EST = +41; signal line is +3
11/30/25; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +55; signal line is +1
11/28/25; 9:43 AM EST = +55; signal line is -1
11/28/25; 3:06 AM EST = +41; signal line is -3
11/26/25; 2:18 PM EST = +55; signal line is -4
11/26/25; 9:41 AM EST = +41; signal line is -6
11/25/25; 2:35 PM EST = +27; signal line is -7
11/25/25; 11:33 AM EST = +11; signal line is -8
11/25/25; 10:27 AM EST = -6; signal line is -8
11/25/25; 10:00 AM EST = -21; signal line is -8 but algorithm remains long
11/25/25; 9:44 AM EST = -17; signal line is -6 but algorithm remains long
11/25/25; 9:36 AM EST = -1; signal line is -5
11/24/25; 12:54 PM EST = +13; signal line is -4
11/24/25; 10:33 AM EST = -1; signal line is -4; go long 6672 (Benchmark SPX for 2025 = +13.4%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.5%; Keybot algo for 2025 = +24.6%)(Actual results this trade = -0.8%; Actual results for 2025 = +31.7%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long as the daily stock market drama continues. The algo number is only 4 measly points above the signal line so the bulls are not as strong as prior days. The bulls pumped the banksters last week and the Fed maintained their jack boot on the throat of volatility to make sure stocks remain buoyant to please the wealthy class.

Utilities, volatility and commodities are the three metrics that will determine the fate of the stock market in the days ahead. The bull/bear lines in the sand are UTIL 1078.53, UTIL 1057.60, VIX 17.23 and GTX 3882.48, respectively.

UTIL begins the week at 1070 causing bearishness in markets being under 1079 but also creating bullishness because it is above 1058. One of these two parameters should flinch and that will tell you a lot about stock market direction ahead. Obviously, bulls need UTIL, or DJU, above 1079 because that paves the way to Christmas gifts galore and stock prices making more record highs. If UTIL loses 1058, however, may the Lord have mercy on your soul if you are long the stock market.

VIX begins trading overnight at 15.74. Bears got absolutely nothing unless the VIX climbs above 17.23. Stocks may sell off sharply, but if the VIX remains below 17.23, the selling is meaningless and stocks will recover. If stocks begin selling off and the VIX spikes above 17.23 heading higher, equities will be falling apart.

GTX starts the new week of trading at 3887 only a couple bucks from the line in the sand. It is there if the bears want it. Bulls need to keep GTX above 3882 or they are in big trouble. As commodities go, so goes the stock market.

Thus, mathematicians say thus a lot, that is why we are never invited to the neighborhood barbecue party, the bulls are in control of the stock market and if they can push UTIL above 1078.53, they are golden, with nothing but blue skies, bright flowers, sunshine and unicorns ahead to finish the year.

If UTIL loses 1057.60, or if VIX pops above 17.23, or if GTX loses 3882.48, any 1 of the 3 will do, the quant will be in position to go short. If 1 of the 3 flip into the bear camp, and if the SPX falls below 6801 trending lower, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short. Watch utilities, volatility and commodities and you can probably ignore everything else occurring in the stock market. 

Keybot prints three prescheduled numbers this week, two on Tuesday morning when some jobs data will finally be available that will move markets, and the other on Friday morning. The bulls are trying to choke the bears in the shallow water as Edie sings, "What I Am."

12/21/25; 7:00 PM EST =
12/19/25; 10:00 AM EST =
12/16/25; 9:01 AM EST =
12/16/25; 9:00 AM EST =
12/14/25; 7:00 PM EST = +39; signal line is +35
12/10/25; 2:38 PM EST = +39; signal line is +33

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long as the Fed day plays out. Powell flaps his dovish wings implementing a rate cut and a QE light program so the fans go wild. The wealthy dance with glee knowing they will be rewarded with more wealth in the stock market effortlessly. Such is the crony capitalism filth system.

The robot was very active today spitting out 10 numbers, on the 10th. Utilities and volatility were duking it out all morning long into the Fed meeting when volatility collapsed sending stocks higher. Utilities then jumped on the bull wagon and the SPX never looked back.

Watch the UTIL 1057.60 and VIX 17.26 lines in the sand. Nothing Else Matters. UTIL will begin tomorrow at 1058 so breathe on it and it will fail. VIX has a 15 handle so the Fed is maintaining its jack boot on the throat of Uncle Vix making sure stocks remain buoyant rewarding their wealthy-class masters.

If either metric flips into the bear camp (lower utes or higher vol), the quant will be in position to go short, the imminent turn will be in play, and if the SPX drops below 6825 heading lower, the quant will likely flip short. That is a 62-point drop for the S&P 500 so a tall ask but in these markets, you never know, it may be down there for tomorrow's opening bell. If not, there may be a day or two needed to reset where the bears will have an easier time to flip the model short.

Since the Fed is standing on VIX's chest, the whole enchilada comes down to the utilities. It is surprising that business commentators do not comment on the utes. The UTIL 1057.60 trap-door opened a few times today but the bulls kept closing it to prevent from falling through and snapping their necks. Very bad things will happen if UTIL drops below 1057 heading lower. Today it pierced the veil so tomorrow we see if it continues lower, or, if utes recover higher that will point to joyous stocks ahead for Christmas Day. Jingle Bell Rock. 

12/14/25; 7:00 PM EST =
12/10/25; 2:38 PM EST = +39; signal line is +33
12/10/25; 2:30 PM EST = +23; signal line is +31 but algorithm remains long
12/10/25; 2:12 PM EST = +39; signal line is +30
12/10/25; 1:59 PM EST = +23; signal line is +29 but algorithm remains long
12/10/25; 1:17 PM EST = +39; signal line is +28
12/10/25; 10:02 AM EST = +23; signal line is +26 but algorithm remains long
12/10/25; 9:59 AM EST = +9; signal line is +24 but algorithm remains long
12/10/25; 8:37 AM EST = +25; signal line is +23
12/10/25; 8:27 AM EST = +39; signal line is +22
12/10/25; 5:31 AM EST = +25; signal line is +19

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long so far this sleepy week as everyone waits for the Fed today. Pope Powell will bring the tablets down from On High this afternoon and tell everyone how to trade. The bulls remain in control of the stock market to start the day but the algo number is only 6 points above the signal line that is not much so the caution flag is out (the bears are hiding in the bushes ready to pounce).

Volatility, utilities, banks and commodities are all that matter. Ignore everything else. VIX pops above the bull/bear line in the sand at 17.27 creating a soggy start to the day. Watch this closely since it is a rudder controlling market direction. VIX is at 17.31 creating bearishness in the stock market but only by a hair.

UTIL is at 1060 and disaster will occur for stocks at the 1057 bull/bear line in the sand and lower. The bulls kept it above this week hoping that Pope Powell will deliver a sermon today that creates joy and happiness in stocks. Watch UTIL, or DJU, closely because a potential crash will be on the table going forward if 1057 fails.

For the financials, XLF 52.87 is the line in the sand and price is at 53.32 in the pre-market so the banksters are another game of dollars and pennies. Stocks will fall apart if XLF 52.87 fails. JPM took the pipe yesterday afternoon.

GTX 3884 is the commodities line in the sand and price is at 3915 creating bullishness. Bears need weaker commodities.

Thus, volatility is in the bear camp wanting the day to turn ugly. UTIL, XLF and GTX are in the bull camp wanting the good times to roll along. Bears need weaker utes, banks and commodities to drive the stock market into Hell. The bulls simply need VIX back below 17.27 and the good times will continue for stocks.

If VIX remains bearish, and 1 of the other 3 metrics flip bearish, consider the turn to the short side to be on the table and imminent, and if the SPX falls below 6837 trending lower, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short, but you have to wait and see what Pope Powell and the 1's and 0's say.

12/14/25; 7:00 PM EST =
12/10/25; 5:31 AM EST = +25; signal line is +19
12/7/25; 7:00 PM EST = +39; signal line is +17

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long with the algo number 22 points above the signal line. The bulls are trying to keep stocks buoyant into the Fed meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday with the rate decision and Chairman Powell presser on Wednesday afternoon. Typically, stocks are up 80% of the time the couple days in front of a Fed meeting (Tuesday and Wednesday). Thus, if the bears want to growl, they will likely need to bring it out of the gate tomorrow.

Utilities, volatility and banks are running the show right now. Everything else is noise. UTIL 1088.74 and UTIL 1056 are two key bull/bear line in the sand to watch this week. UTIL begins at 1078 that will create negativity in equities since it is below the 1089. Stocks will fall apart if UTIL 1056 fails.

For next week, 12/15/25, UTIL 1089 will be meaningless and replaced with 1078.53 for all of that week. Lo and behold, since saying lo and behold seems appropriate this time of year, lo and behold, you can already see that battle shaping-up. At 4 PM EST Friday, check UTIL, or DJU, to see if it is above or below 1078.53 since that will tell you the bias of the stock market ahead of time for the week of 12/15/25.

VIX 17.22 is the bull/bear line in the sand with price at 15.41 so stocks rally higher. Bears need the VIX above 17.22 to growl, otherwise, they got buptkis.

XLF 52.77 is the bull/bear line in the sand with price at 53.68 so stocks rally higher. Bears need the XLF below 52.77 to growl, otherwise, they got buptkis. You can check XLF in the premarket to see if it is down -1.7% to cause stock market trouble, or not.

UTIL 1089 is helping bears. UTIL 1056, VIX 17.22 and XLF 52.77 are helping bulls and the reason the stock market remains buoyant. With any selloff occurring going forward, you can gauge the extent of downside damage by those 3 metrics.

If stocks sell off, but VIX is still below 17.22, bears got nothing and stocks will rally again. If all three metrics fail, a broad stock market crash will be on the table. The quant likely needs 2 of those 3 metrics to turn bearish to flip short. Another possibility would be if UTIL pops above 1089, but then slips back below a short time later, then back above, then below, rinse and repeat, these jog moves above and below UTIL 1089 would likely walk the robot towards flipping short.

It should be an interesting week ahead. Keybot does not print any prescheduled numbers this week. The stock market is Rockin' Around the Christmas Tree.

12/14/25; 7:00 PM EST =
12/7/25; 7:00 PM EST = +39; signal line is +17
12/5/25; 10:00 AM EST = +39; signal line is +15
12/2/25; 3:35 AM EST = +39; signal line is +13

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long as the bulls and bears bloody each other in this Christmas season. The bears fight back and pull utilities and volatility into their camp but alas, volatility already runs back to the bull camp. The bulls remain in control of the stock market with the algo number 26 points above the signal line.

Utes, volatility, and banks are running the show so watch UTIL 1109.48, VIX 17.23, and XLF 52.67. The failure in the utilities is ominous for the stock market going forward. Keep watching to see if UTIL, or DJU, remains under 1109, that will be trouble, and especially if it falls below 1089 by the end of the week. Utes are creating market negativity but the VIX and XLF create positivity.

The Fed has its jackboot on the throat of Uncle Vix holding him to the ground so stocks can remain buoyant. The VIX is now at 16.95 in the early morning falling below 17. The bulls want to maintain control but will fall apart if the VIX moves above 17.23.

The banksters are teasing the XLF line in the sand, again. Each time the banks are ready to roll over, the happy dip-buyers buy with both fists. Today will be another test. Price ended yesterday at 52.89 only pennies from the bear camp at 52.67 that will create stock market angst. In the premarket, XLF pops to 52.97. Do you think the bulls are sweating? Yes they are already trying to keep the banksters heads above water.

If utilties remain negative, and either VIX or XLF turn negative, consider the caution flag to be out. If both metrics jump into the bear camp, consider the imminent turn to the downside to be in play for the quant.

The bears can take it if they want it; they need to turn volatility and banks bearish and pull the SPX below 6800 and that will likely be enough to flip the robot short. VIX is at 16.88 and XLF is at 52.98. The stock market is bipolar so some Lithium is in order. Kurt cracked. 

12/7/25; 7:00 PM EST =
12/5/25; 10:00 AM EST =
12/2/25; 3:35 AM EST = +39; signal line is +13
12/1/25; 3:59 PM EST = +25; signal line is +11
12/1/25; 2:28 PM EST = +39; signal line is +11
12/1/25; 1:14 PM EST = +55; signal line is +9
12/1/25; 12:18 PM EST = +39; signal line is +7
12/1/25; 10:58 AM EST = +55; signal line is +5
12/1/25; 3:06 AM EST = +41; signal line is +3
11/30/25; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +55; signal line is +1