STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the short side this morning at SPX 6788 after the opening bell. Volatility and utilities turn sour emboldening the bears. It has been a fist-fight ever since, however. The bears have the stock market ball with the algo number only 5 measly points below the signal line. That is nothing to write home about so stay on guard for a whipsaw over the next day or two.

Utes, volatility, commodities and chips are running the show. Bears need VIX above 17.02 or they got nothing and will fold like your cheap JC Penney suit. If that occurs, bears will then begin carnage if SOX loses 6840 and then a crash would be on the table if UTIL loses 1058. Fun times.

The bulls must keep VIX below 17.02 and they can remain not-too-worried but at the same time they must push UTIL above 1078.53 to prove they got game. Bulls are going to choke if they cannot get UTIL above 1079. Bulls also benefit if commodities strengthen and GTX would rise above 3880.

Thus, mathematicians say thus a lot, that is why we are never invited to the holiday parties, bears need higher volatility, weaker chips, and weaker utilities.

Bulls need to maintain low volatility while pushing utilities and commodities higher if they want to wrestle back control of the stock market.

On the last trade, that ran for 3 weeks, the algorithm program gains a couple percent and ditto the actual trading generated by the quant. For the year, now down to the short strokes with only 10 trading days remaining, the benchmark SPX, the US stock market, is up +15%. The quant program is up +26% and the actual trading generated by the quant is up +34% outperforming the benchmark by over 2x. Keybot exits QLD and enters SDS.

The parameters above will tell you the direction of the stock market going forward. Valerie June is a unique artist and talent; her girlish voice grows on you. She does a great job with Let It Snow.

12/21/25; 7:00 PM EST =
12/19/25; 10:00 AM EST =
12/16/25; 10:50 AM EST = +25; signal line is +30
12/16/25; 10:26 AM EST = +11; signal line is +30
12/16/25; 9:53 AM EST = +25; signal line is +31
12/16/25; 9:46 AM EST = +11; signal line is +32; go short 6788 (Benchmark SPX for 2025 = +15.4%)(Keybot algo this trade = +1.7%; Keybot algo for 2025 = +26.3%)(Actual results this trade = +2.1%; Actual results for 2025 = +33.8%)
12/16/25; 9:01 AM EST = +41; signal line is +33
12/16/25; 9:00 AM EST = +41; signal line is +33
12/16/25; 6:39 AM EST = +41; signal line is +33
12/16/25; 5:59 AM EST = +27; signal line is +34 but algorithm remains long
12/16/25; 5:45 AM EST = +41; signal line is +35
12/16/25; 3:06 AM EST = +27; signal line is +35 but algorithm remains long
12/15/25; 2:57 PM EST = +41; signal line is +36
12/15/25; 10:47 AM EST = +25; signal line is +36 but algorithm remains long
12/15/25; 10:30 AM EST = +11; signal line is +36 but algorithm remains long
12/15/25; 9:36 AM EST = +25; signal line is +36 but algorithm remains long
12/14/25; 7:00 PM EST = +39; signal line is +35
12/10/25; 2:38 PM EST = +39; signal line is +33
12/10/25; 2:30 PM EST = +23; signal line is +31 but algorithm remains long
12/10/25; 2:12 PM EST = +39; signal line is +30
12/10/25; 1:59 PM EST = +23; signal line is +29 but algorithm remains long
12/10/25; 1:17 PM EST = +39; signal line is +28
12/10/25; 10:02 AM EST = +23; signal line is +26 but algorithm remains long
12/10/25; 9:59 AM EST = +9; signal line is +24 but algorithm remains long
12/10/25; 8:37 AM EST = +25; signal line is +23
12/10/25; 8:27 AM EST = +39; signal line is +22
12/10/25; 5:31 AM EST = +25; signal line is +19
12/7/25; 7:00 PM EST = +39; signal line is +17
12/5/25; 10:00 AM EST = +39; signal line is +15
12/2/25; 3:35 AM EST = +39; signal line is +13
12/1/25; 3:59 PM EST = +25; signal line is +11
12/1/25; 2:28 PM EST = +39; signal line is +11
12/1/25; 1:14 PM EST = +55; signal line is +9
12/1/25; 12:18 PM EST = +39; signal line is +7
12/1/25; 10:58 AM EST = +55; signal line is +5
12/1/25; 3:06 AM EST = +41; signal line is +3
11/30/25; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +55; signal line is +1
11/28/25; 9:43 AM EST = +55; signal line is -1
11/28/25; 3:06 AM EST = +41; signal line is -3
11/26/25; 2:18 PM EST = +55; signal line is -4
11/26/25; 9:41 AM EST = +41; signal line is -6
11/25/25; 2:35 PM EST = +27; signal line is -7
11/25/25; 11:33 AM EST = +11; signal line is -8
11/25/25; 10:27 AM EST = -6; signal line is -8
11/25/25; 10:00 AM EST = -21; signal line is -8 but algorithm remains long
11/25/25; 9:44 AM EST = -17; signal line is -6 but algorithm remains long
11/25/25; 9:36 AM EST = -1; signal line is -5
11/24/25; 12:54 PM EST = +13; signal line is -4
11/24/25; 10:33 AM EST = -1; signal line is -4; go long 6672 (Benchmark SPX for 2025 = +13.4%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.5%; Keybot algo for 2025 = +24.6%)(Actual results this trade = -0.8%; Actual results for 2025 = +31.7%)