Thursday, November 17, 2011

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is short to start the Thursday session. The pre-scheduled print increased the signal line number by one tick.  The three sectors favoring bulls are utes, retail and semi's.  Thus, watch RTH, the 109 level. RTH is two points above but should the 109 fail, the broad markets will take a large leg down.

The market bears need to keep the XLF under 13 and the VIX over 31.25 which appears to be on tap at least in the early going.  Use the SPX:VIX ratio as a guide today.  If the 35 level is lost, that will usher in a large selling day today. If the ratio holds 35, then the bulls are doing okay.

For the SPX, watch 1235.67.  If this fails then the broad markets should drop several more handles in short order. Caution is warranted, markets remain unstable.

11/30/11; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
11/29/11; 10:00 AM EST =
11/27/11; 7:00 PM EST =
11/25/11; 10:00 AM EST =
11/20/11; 7:00 PM EST =
11/17/11; 9:00 AM EST = -24; signal line is -13
11/16/11; 3:11 PM EST = -24; signal line is -12
11/16/11; 1:26 PM EST = -10; signal line is -12 but algorithm says stay short
11/16/11; 9:30 AM EST = -24; signal line is -12
11/15/11; 3:58 PM EST = -10; signal line is -12 but algorithm says stay short
11/15/11; 1:36 PM EST = +6; signal line is -10 but algorithm says stay short
11/15/11; 12:35 PM EST = -10; signal line is -10 but algorithm says stay short
11/15/11; 11:27 AM EST = -24; signal line is -9; go short 1247; (Benchmark SPX for 2011=-0.9%)(Keybot this trade=-0.3%; Keybot for 2011=+24.0%)(Actual this trade via SPY=-0.7%; Actual for 2011=+28.2%)

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