Wednesday, November 9, 2011


Keybot the Quant is on the long side to start the day. The one point difference between the algo number and signal line was highlighted yesterday. This shows that the upside move was not enthusiastic and a whipsaw is in play, hence, today we see the futures in the tank.  The SPX is set to open about 30 points lower at this writing. For the SPX today, the 1255 handle is key. If 1255 is lost after the open, the bears will be in full control and push the indexes much lower.

Watch volatilty after the bell rings.  VIX closed at 27.48 yesterday.  Projecting a minimum 10% move places the VIX at 27.48 + 2.75 = 30.23.  The algo is currently scanning VIX 30.35. If the market bears can drive the VIX above 30.35 the broad market slide will be ugly today with large down numbers expected.  If the market bulls can stop the VIX from reaching 30.35, the bears got nothing today despite all the negativity. Note that the bears need a move of the VIX in excess of 10% to get above the 30.35. The VIX will tell the story when the bell rings.

11/30/11; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
11/29/11; 10:00 AM EST =
11/27/11; 7:00 PM EST =
11/25/11; 10:00 AM EST =
11/20/11; 7:00 PM EST =
11/17/11; 9:00 AM EST =
11/13/11; 7:00 PM EST =
11/11/11; 10:00 AM EST =
11/8/11; 9:30 AM EST = +6; signal line is +5; go long 1261; (Benchmark SPX for 2011=+0.2%)(Keybot this trade=-2.3%; Keybot for 2011=+23.7%)(Actual this trade via SH=-3.6%; Actual for 2011=+32.0%)

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