Sunday, November 13, 2011

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is long to start the new trading week. Continue to expect large point swings up and down intraday and day to day due to high volatility. The quant is focused on several key areas that will determine market direction on Monday;  volatility, financials, commodities and SPX price overhead resistance.

If the VIX, starting at 30-ish, stays under 30.45, the market bulls enjoy market buoyancy. If the VIX moves above 30.45, the market bears will be gathering steam and the indexes will be dropping. If the XLF, starting at 13.23, stays above 13.00, the market bulls enjoy market buoyancy. If the XLF moves under 13.00, the market bears will be gathering steam and the indexes will be dropping. Ditto commodities, watch the CRB 326.75 level, now at 320.20, favoring market bears. If the bulls push the indexes higher, watch the SPX 200 day MA and 12 month MA above at 1272.27 and 1282.17, respectively. The 1272 is a signal that the bull strength is strong and growing. The 1282 level indicates that extended bullishness should occur moving forward and the underlying negativity in the markets is lifting.

Markets are at the mercy of Europe, so any news from across the pond will immediately impact the indexes, good or bad.  Of the items listed above, focus on volatility, the VIX 30.45 number, as the opening bell rings. Note that the algo number is only five points away from the signal line so a flip back to the short side at any time must be respected. Keybot prints out only one pre-scheduled number this week on Thursday morning.

11/30/11; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
11/29/11; 10:00 AM EST =
11/27/11; 7:00 PM EST =
11/25/11; 10:00 AM EST =
11/20/11; 7:00 PM EST =
11/17/11; 9:00 AM EST =
11/13/11; 7:00 PM EST = +6; signal line is +1
11/11/11; 10:00 AM EST = +6; signal line is +2
11/11/11; 9:30 AM EST = +6; signal line is +2; go long 1251; (Benchmark SPX for 2011=-0.6%)(Keybot this trade=+0.7%; Keybot for 2011=+24.3%)(Actual this trade via DOG=-1.0%; Actual for 2011=+28.9%)

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