Tuesday, November 22, 2011

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short.  Volatility, VIX, dropped at lunch time today favoring market buoyancy but climbed back up into the close finishing only pennies away from favoring market bears again.  For Wednesday, at the opening bell, VIX direction will dictate broad market direction. If VIX stays under 32.05, the markets will slide sideways with some upwards buoyancy into Turkey Day. If the VIX pops above 32.05 at the open and moves higher, the bears will spoil the turkey dinner with strong selling in the indexes.

For SPX, 1183 and 1181 held today, there is only air underneath. SPX:VIX ratio is 37.16, two points above the danger line at 35. If the ratio drops under 35 tomorrow, the markets will drop strongly and substantively. If the ratio stays above, markets will float into the holiday. Thus, watch VIX 32.05, SPX 1181 and SPX:VIX 35, these three will tell you what you need to know.

11/30/11; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
11/29/11; 10:00 AM EST =
11/27/11; 7:00 PM EST =
11/23/11; 10:00 AM EST =
11/22/11; 12:09 PM EST = -42; signal line is -21
11/22/11; 10:12 AM EST = -56; signal line is -20
11/22/11; 9:54 AM EST = -42; signal line is -19
11/21/11; 9:30 AM EST = -56; signal line is -18
11/20/11; 7:00 PM EST = -40; signal line is -16
11/17/11; 12:12 PM EST = -40; signal line is -14

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