Sunday, November 20, 2011

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant is short to start the new trading week. The pre-scheduled number for Friday was moved forward and will print on Wednesday instead. Today's Sunday number results in the same algo number but the signal line moved lower two points. To gauge broad market direction tomorrow, watch volatility, semiconductors, retail, SPX:VIX and the SPX. For volatility, the market bears are in and will stay in control if the VIX remains above 31.25, now at 32.00.  For semiconductors, that broke down late last week causing an additional slide in the indexes, if the SOX remains under 376.65, now at 371.25, the market bears will keep the indexes weak.

For retail, RTH, the market bears will try to push under 108.75.  RTH is now at 109.78, a point above favoring market bulls.  The SPX:VIX ratio is at 38 favoring market bulls but if the ratio falls under 35 after the opening bell, a large down day is on tap for the broad markets.  Lastly, watch SPX  1224, 1211 and 1210.  Market bulls need to touch 1224 to put an end to the selling. Market bears need to touch a 1211 handle and weakness will accelerate in the markets. 1210 is strong longer term support and if that fails, the markets are in big trouble. First test will be 1204 then more than likely a move to test support lower at 1198.

11/30/11; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
11/29/11; 10:00 AM EST =
11/27/11; 7:00 PM EST =
11/23/11; 10:00 AM EST =
11/20/11; 7:00 PM EST = -40; signal line is -16
11/17/11; 12:12 PM EST = -40; signal line is -14
11/17/11; 9:00 AM EST = -24; signal line is -13
11/16/11; 3:11 PM EST = -24; signal line is -12
11/16/11; 1:26 PM EST = -10; signal line is -12 but algorithm says stay short
11/16/11; 9:30 AM EST = -24; signal line is -12
11/15/11; 3:58 PM EST = -10; signal line is -12 but algorithm says stay short
11/15/11; 1:36 PM EST = +6; signal line is -10 but algorithm says stay short
11/15/11; 12:35 PM EST = -10; signal line is -10 but algorithm says stay short
11/15/11; 11:27 AM EST = -24; signal line is -9; go short 1247; (Benchmark SPX for 2011=-0.9%)(Keybot this trade=-0.3%; Keybot for 2011=+24.0%)(Actual this trade via SPY=-0.7%; Actual for 2011=+28.2%)

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