Monday, November 14, 2011


Keybot the Quant is long but note that the algo number is now lower than the signal line.  The quant wants to flip short but additional programming rules are holding it back, so the bulls remain in favor, for now. VIX 31.20 and XLF 13.00 are the two important items today dictating broad market direction. VIX now well above 31.20 indicating that the market bears are in charge.  XLF dropped under 13 about one-half hour ago, turning market bearish, and note how the indexes trailed off lower.

The market bears cannot do any real damage unless SPX 1240 is touched. Since volatility and financials have joined the bear camp, the next sector to watch is semiconductors.  SOX is now at 384.84. If 379 is lost, then the market bears will accelerate the selling dramatically. If SOX remains market bullish and the SPX does not test 1240, then the indexes should stumble along sideways from here.

11/30/11; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
11/29/11; 10:00 AM EST =
11/27/11; 7:00 PM EST =
11/25/11; 10:00 AM EST =
11/20/11; 7:00 PM EST =
11/17/11; 9:00 AM EST =
11/14/11; 11:52 AM EST = -24; signal line is -3 but algorithm says stay long
11/14/11; 9:30 AM EST = -8; signal line is -1 but algorithm says stay long
11/13/11; 7:00 PM EST = +6; signal line is +1
11/11/11; 10:00 AM EST = +6; signal line is +2
11/11/11; 9:30 AM EST = +6; signal line is +2; go long 1251; (Benchmark SPX for 2011=-0.6%)(Keybot this trade=+0.7%; Keybot for 2011=+24.3%)(Actual this trade via DOG=-1.0%; Actual for 2011=+28.9%)

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