Friday, June 10, 2011

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips back to the short side with a whipsaw as suspected.  The VIX is well above the 17.71 level favoring bears.  SPX broke thru the 1280 handle ushering in further weakness as forecasted.  Note that the SPX:VIX ratio did not fail at 68 yet, however, so, just like the up move was suspect, this down move is suspect.  If the ratio loses the 68 level the indexes will be sold off much larger than the big losses you see now. SPX:VIX currently at 68.5.  Watch the NYA 40 week MA at 8002, a secular signal, that is currently being tested with the NYA at 8033.  If the NYA loses only 31 more points, expect the market selling to increase.

Markets remain unstable and indecisive.  Bear case can be confirmed if the SPX:VIX loses 68 or if the NYA loses 8002, otherwise, stay on guard for another whipsaw. Keybot had to take a 1% loss for the one day whipsaw. 

7/3/11; 7:00 PM EST =
7/1/11; 10:00 AM EST =
6/30/11; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
6/28/11; 10:00 AM EST =
6/26/11; 7:00 PM EST =
6/19/11; 7:00 PM EST =
6/17/11; 10:00 AM EST =
6/16/11; 9:00 AM EST =
6/12/11; 7:00 PM EST =
6/10/11; 10:06 AM EST = -28; signal line is -18; go short 1277; (Benchmark SPX for 2011=+1.5%)(Keybot this trade=-1.0%; Keybot for 2011=+5.4%)(Actual this trade via DIA=-1.1%; Actual for 2011=-0.1%)
6/9/11; 3:58 PM EST = -28; signal line is -17 but algorithm says stay long
6/9/11; 12:32 PM EST = -14; signal line is -15
6/9/11; 11:50 AM EST = 0; signal line is -14; go long 1290; (Benchmark SPX for 2011=+2.5%)(Keybot this trade=+3.1%; Keybot for 2011=+6.4%)(Actual this trade via DOG=+2.3%; Actual for 2011=+1.0%)

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