Wednesday, June 29, 2011

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot remains bullish, idling along unchanged after the mid morning number clicked off.  Big day and big change for the algorithm. The algorithm number is now comfortably 45 points above the signal line, very bullish.  The POMO pumps first boosted the retail sector yesterday, then boosted copper and volatility today.  Trichet's move to 'strong vigilance' pumped the euro higher which in turn pumps commodities and equites higher.  Treasury yields jumped large over the last couple days increasing the 2-10 spread and placing a bid under the financials.

The bulls are further buoyed by the SPX:VIX ratio moving back above 68 and the NYA now back above the 40 week MA nullifying the move into a secular bear market. As if this was not enough, markets are typically buoyant and bull-friendly the two days before a three day holiday weekend, so this hints that markets will be at least sideways or sideways up into the weekend.

SPX 1307 level was tested today.  A rest is in order considering the strong move, but a move up to test 1314 should come next.  All that said, you have to stay on guard since the market can taketh away as fast as it giveth.  The key was going long Monday and Tuesday, if you did not, the major part of the move already occurred.

For tomorrow for the SPX, things keep going the bulls way, all they need is 2 points to get up and over 1309.21 after the open and the buyers will come in force again and the move up will accelerate a few handles.  The market bears, somewhat beat up this week, must push the SPX down 10 points tomorrow to get under a 1297 handle to restart any significant bearishness.  SPX 1298 thru 1307 range represents sideways slop, and would give the SPX some rest time considering the large move up this week.

7/31/11; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
7/29/11; 10:00 AM EST =
7/26/11; 10:00 AM EST =
7/24/11; 7:00 PM EST =
7/19/11; 9:00 AM EST =
7/17/11; 7:00 PM EST =
7/15/11; 10:00 AM EST =
7/10/11; 7:00 PM EST =
7/8/11; 9:00 AM EST =
7/3/11; 7:00 PM EST =
7/1/11; 10:00 AM EST =
6/30/11; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ2 EOH1=
6/29/11; 10:41 AM EST = +18
6/29/11; 9:30 AM EST = +4
6/28/11; 10:30 AM EST = -12
6/28/11; 10:00 AM EST = -28; signal line is -30
6/28/11; 9:36 AM EST = -28; signal line is -30; go long 1285; (Benchmark SPX for 2011=+2.2%)(Keybot this trade=-0.6%; Keybot for 2011=+4.8%)(Actual this trade via DOG=-0.8%; Actual for 2011=-0.9%)

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