Thursday, September 1, 2011

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips back to the short side today at 2:02 PM EST at SPX 1207. What a change in circumstances. Yesterday, retail, copper and commodities joined the bull camp but the euphoria crumbled away in todays session.  The bad GS news at 1:30 PM dropped the financials dragging the broad markets south.

The algo had calmly enjoyed the recovery rally since 8/23/11 but even before the opening bell, the commodities were slipping away. At the opening bell, copper, using the JJC as a proxy, fell back into bear territory.  The commodities danced in and out of the bull and bear camps all morning before choosing the bear side after lunch. The retail sector had held up but turned bearish after the GS news. The algo rules lined out at the 2 o'cock hour and Keybot the Quant flipped short at SPX 1207, locking in the upside gains from 1146.

The benchmark SPX index is down 4% on the year now. Keybot gained about 5% on the long side trade over the last eight trading days for the algo to now tally a 26.5% return for 2011. The actual trading return, using the SSO leveraged ETF for the long side on this latest trade, gained about 12% over the last eight trading days to now tally an over 40% return for 2011 (8 months).

Thus, the short side is in play again.  Markets languished to finish the day ahead of the all important jobs report in the morning. The algo clicks off a pre-scheduled  number at 9 AM so at that time we can set the road map for the Friday session, the last day in front of the three-day Labor Day holiday weekend.

Markets remain unstable, volatility remains elevated, and, as always, stay on guard for a potential whipsaw over the next day or two. The jobs data will obviously set tomorrow's tone and with a triple digit down day on the Dow Industrials today, some negativity has already been priced into the markets. Keybot the Quant enjoys the higher volatility, higher volume environment over the last month. Keybot the robot will receive some extra oil tonight for another great job by a great algo.

10/7/11; 10:00 AM EST =
10/2/11; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
9/30/11; 10:00 AM EST =
9/27/11; 10:00 AM EST =
9/25/11; 7:00 PM EST =
9/20/11; 9:00 AM EST =
9/18/11; 7:00 PM EST =
9/16/11; 10:00 AM EST =
9/11/11; 7:00 PM EST =
9/4/11; 7:00 PM EST =
9/2/11; 9:00 AM EST =
9/1/11; 2:02 PM EST = -72; signal line is -51; go short 1207; (Benchmark SPX for 2011=-4.1%)(Keybot this trade=+5.3%; Keybot for 2011=+26.5%)(Actual this trade via SSO=+12.1%; Actual for 2011=+40.5%)
9/1/11; 1:33 PM EST = -72; signal line is -51 but algorithm says stay long
9/1/11; 1:31 PM EST = -56; signal line is -52 but algorithm says stay long
9/1/11; 11:49 AM EST = -42; signal line is -52
9/1/11; 10:31 AM EST = -56; signal line is -54 but algorithm says stay long
9/1/11; 10:20 AM EST = -42; signal line is -54
9/1/11; 10:12 AM EST = -56; signal line is -55 but algorithm says stay long
9/1/11; 10:00 AM EST = -42; signal line is -55
9/1/11; 9:49 AM EST = -56; signal line -57; turn appears imminent
9/1/11; 9:30 AM EST = -42; signal line is -57
9/1/11; 8:54 AM EST = -26
9/1/11; 8:00 AM EST = -40; signal line -59
8/31/11; 7:00 PM EST EOM = -26; signal line -61
8/31/11; 3:31 PM EST = -26
8/31/11; 3:12 PM EST = -42
8/31/11; 10:52 AM EST = -26
8/31/11; 10:39 AM EST = -40
8/31/11; 9:57 AM EST = -26
8/31/11; 9:48 AM EST = -40
8/31/11; 9:30 AM EST = -56
8/30/11; 3:58 PM EST = -72; signal line -74
8/30/11; 3:28 PM EST = -56
8/30/11; 2:47 PM EST = -72; signal line -75
8/30/11; 2:39 PM EST = -56
8/30/11; 10:00 AM EST = -72; signal line -76
8/28/11; 7:00 PM EST = -72; signal line -77
8/26/11; 10:00 AM EST = -72; signal -77
8/23/11; 11:51 AM EST = -72; signal line is -77; go long 1146; (Benchmark SPX for 2011=-8.9%)(Keybot this trade=+13.4%; Keybot for 2011=+21.2%)(Actual this trade via SDS=+25.6%; Actual for 2011=+28.4%)

3 comments:

  1. why wasn't this posted around 2pm est?

    ReplyDelete
  2. thanks for your help and time also. wouldn't survive without you.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Haha. Well, do not forget this site is done out of an interest and passion for stock trading, nothing more at the moment. The merits of Keybot the Quant are obvious.

    In time, as the readership grows, as it continues to do so almost exponentially now, perhaps a more structured approach can be pursued thru a closed-end subscription service that would provide any turns as close as possible to when they occur. The Keystone Speculator simply updates as health permits, and yesterday was simply not a good health day.

    Also, do not forget, that in trading, anything can happen, and be careful what you wish for, since a high jobs number this morning may actually create a whipsaw for the algo, and it may not be best to have flipped short yesterday afternoon. Best wishes in all your trades and thanks for the comments.

    ReplyDelete

Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.