Thursday, September 22, 2011

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flipped short at the open. The algo gave back 30 spoo's for the long play over the last week. Note how, despite Keybot having already reduced risk, the algo lost 2.5% on the last trade but the actual trade in SPY still lost 4.3%. On the bright side, without reduced risk, the quant would have given back over 8% for the actual trade, and, of course, Keybot remains up over 35% thus far this year, beating the SPX benchmark handily by about 45%.  So, the market bears are in control again. The SPX:VIX ratio dropping under 35 yesterday morning has led the equity land slide.

All major sectors are bearish as perceived by the algo, except the utes.  Watch UTIL 423.83 level next.  UTIL now printing 426.69, about three points above.  If the 423.83 is lost, another market down leg will occur. The bears need to keep the RTH under 104 to maintain market bearishness. And, as always, watch for a whipsaw move today or tomorrow.

10/7/11; 10:00 AM EST =
10/2/11; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
9/30/11; 10:00 AM EST =
9/27/11; 10:00 AM EST =
9/25/11; 7:00 PM EST =
9/22/11; 9:30 AM EST = -56; signal line is -51; go short 1150; (Benchmark SPX for 2011=-8.6%)(Keybot this trade=-2.5%; Keybot for 2011=+23.9%)(Actual this trade via SPY=-4.3%; Actual for 2011=+35.4%)
9/21/11; 3:50 PM EST = -40; signal line is -51
9/20/11; 9:00 AM EST = -24
9/18/11; 7:00 PM EST = -24
9/16/11; 10:00 AM EST = -24
9/14/11; 12:43 PM EST = -24
9/14/11; 12:39 PM EST = -40; signal line is -58; go long 1180; (Benchmark SPX for 2011=-6.2%)(Keybot this trade=+0.5%; Keybot for 2011=+26.4%)(Actual this trade via SH=+0.4%; Actual for 2011=+39.7%)

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