STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips short at 2:30 PM EST today. The 8 week rally ends. Markets are highly unstable currently. The algorithm finally lined up to make a switch to the short side. Stay on guard for potential whipsaw today or tomorrow.

The year starts off on a high note. The Keybot program is up 7% on the year, same as the SPX Benchmark. Keybot's actual trading is up 10.2% so far this year, locking in the first profits for the year on the first trade of the year for the quant.  The algo was actually long from mid-December but a portion of the gain was placed in 2011 to keep the yearly records straight.  From SPX 1240 to 1342 is an 8% gain since December, so about 1.3% was credited to 2011 and 6.7% credited to 2012 to begin the new year. It is always nice to build up over 10% of insurance already and we are only six weeks into trading for 2012 thus far.

2/19/12; 7:00 PM EST =

2/16/12; 9:00 AM =

2/14/12; 2:30 PM EST = +48; signal line is +49; go short 1342; (Benchmark SPX for 2012  = +6.7%)(Keybot this trade = +6.7%; Keybot for 2012 = +6.7%)(Actual this trade = +10.2%; Actual for 2012 = +10.2%)

2/12/12; 7:00 PM EST = +48; signal line is +49 but algorithm says stay long

2/10/12; 10:00 AM EST = +48; signal line is +49 but algorithm says stay long

2/5/12; 7:00 PM EST = +48; signal line is +49 but algorithm says stay long

2/3/12; 9:00 AM EST = +48; signal line is +49 but algorithm says stay long

1/31/12; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +48; signal line is +48 but algorithm says stay long

1/31/12; 10:00 AM EST = +48; signal line is +48 but algorithm says stay long

1/30/12; 9:30 AM EST = +48; signal line is +48

1/29/12; 7:00 PM EST = +64; signal line is +47

1/27/12; 10:00 AM EST = +64; signal line is +45

1/23/12; 9:33 AM EST = +64; signal line is +43

1/23/12; 9:21 AM EST = +50; signal line is +41

1/23/12; 8:00 AM EST = +64; signal line is +40

1/22/12; 7:00 PM EST = +50; signal line is +38

1/20/12; 8:00 AM EST = +50; signal line is +36

1/19/12; 1:13 PM EST = +64; signal line is +35

1/19/12; 12:38 PM EST = +50; signal line is +34

1/19/12; 9:00 AM EST = +64; signal line is +32

1/19/12; 8:00 AM EST = +64; signal line is +31

1/18/12; 9:50 AM EST = +50; signal line is +29

1/18/12; 8:45 AM EST = +36; signal line is +26

1/18/12; 8:00 AM EST = +50; signal line is +25

1/17/12; 2:35 PM EST = +36; signal line is +23

1/17/12; 9:32 AM EST = +50; signal line is +23

1/15/12; 7:00 PM EST = +36; signal line is +22

1/13/12; 10:26 AM EST = +36; signal line is +22

1/13/12; 10:18 AM EST = +22; signal line is +21

1/13/12; 10:00 AM EST = +36; signal line is +21

1/12/12; 11:01 AM EST = +36; signal line is +21

1/11/12; 12:15 PM EST = +50; signal line is +20

1/11/12; 11:02 AM EST = +36; signal line is +20

1/11/12; 9:24 AM EST = +50; signal line is +19

1/11/12; 8:55 AM EST = +36; signal line is +17

1/10/12; 9:30 AM EST = +50; signal line is +15

1/10/12; 8:00 AM EST = +34; signal line is +14

1/9/12; 2:03 PM EST = +20; signal line is +12

1/9/12; 10:39 AM EST = +6; signal line is +12 but algorithm says stay long

1/9/12; 10:27 AM EST = +20; signal line is +12

1/8/12; 7:00 PM EST = +6; signal line is +11 but algorithm says stay long

1/6/12; 12:40 PM EST = +6; signal line is +10 but algorithm says stay long

1/6/12; 11:33 AM EST = +20; signal line is +10

1/6/12; 9:30 AM EST = +6; signal line is +8 but algorithm says stay long

1/6/12; 9:00 AM EST = +20; signal line is +7

1/5/12; 3:40 PM EST = +20; signal line is +6

1/5/12; 2:27 PM EST = +6; signal line is +5

1/5/12; 1:25 AM EST = +20; signal line is +3

1/4/12; 2:40 PM EST = +6; signal line is +1

1/4/12; 10:10 AM EST = -10; signal line is 0 but algorithm says stay long

1/4/12; 9:42 AM EST = +6; signal line is -2

1/4/12; 9:30 AM EST = -10; signal line is -3 but algorithm says stay long

1/3/12; 3:22 PM EST = +22; signal line is -4

1/3/12; 2:42 PM EST = +36; signal line is -6

1/3/12; 12:59 PM EST = +22; signal line is -8

1/3/12; 12:48 PM EST = +6; signal line is -10

1/3/12; 12:30 PM EST = +22; signal line is -11

1/3/12; 10:00 AM EST = +36; signal line is -14

1/3/12; 9:46 AM EST = +22; signal line is -16

1/3/12; 9:36 AM EST = +36; signal line is -17

1/3/12; 9:30 AM EST = +22; signal line is -19

1/1/12; 7:00 PM EST Starting 2012 Data = -10; signal line is -20

1/1/12; Begin 2012 Data Set = -10; signal line is -20; go long 1258; (Benchmark SPX for 2012  = 0%)(Keybot this trade = 0%; Keybot for 2012 = 0%)(Actual this trade = 0%; Actual for 2012 = 0%)

Keybot the Quant Begins 2012 on the Long Side from SPX 1258.


Note Added 2/14/12 at 5:21 PM:  Lots of high drama today.  Markets deteriorated after 2 PM today on news that the Greece talks were in trouble and the Euro finance ministers cancelled tomorrow's meeting.  In the final half hour of trading the news reversed with word that the Euro leaders will support the Greece resolution. The SPX jumped from 1341 to end the day at 1350.50. The broad indexes were purely news driven for this afternoon. Thus, Keybot is already 8 handles the wrong way on the short trade put on today, but, with 7% to start the year for the algorithm program itself, and over 10% for the actual trading so far, a give back of a couple percent is not biggie, if a whipsaw occurs tomorrow. Keybot will probably flip back to the long side if the SPX moves back above 1355, but, time is needed for the smoke to clear, before setting up tomorrow's action and looking at the levels that Keybot is now scanning.  For now, Keybot has joined the market bears, ending a two-month bull run, taking profits.