STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains bearish. The SPX pushed upwards to 1520 resistance and then pulled back to close at 1516 support. Copper and commodities dropped about one-half percent today but the equities markets gained over one percent; very odd behavior. The bulls will need to move GTX above 4920 and likely higher to gain upside fuel. The bears must push the VIX back above 15.70 to stop the upside market momo.

For the SPX starting the Thursday session at 1516, the bulls need to touch the 1520 handle and an upside acceleration to 1524 will occur quickly and then higher if 1524 gives way.  The bears need to retrace today's move to 1495, 19 points lower, a formidable task but not impossible, and a downside acceleration will occur into the 1480's.  A move through 1496-1519 is sideways action.  The SPX is where it started this week on Monday morning, dead flat on the week thus far. Obviously markets are unstable and erratic looking at the last seven days of trading. Higher volatility will lead to larger and larger intraday point swings. Keybot prints the pre-scheduled EOM print tomorrow evening.

3/1/13; 10:00 AM EST =

2/28/13; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

2/27/13; 10:21 AM EST = +49; signal line is +53

2/26/13; 11:51 AM EST = +33; signal line is +53

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains bearish. Volatility takes a strong move south today, the VIX is printing under 15 which creates the upside in the SPX. The 1505 resistance gave way so the 1509 R and 20-day MA at 1510.58 may be targeted. XLF is well above 17.21 causing bullishness.

3/1/13; 10:00 AM EST =

2/28/13; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

2/27/13; 10:21 AM EST = +49; signal line is +53

2/26/13; 11:51 AM EST = +33; signal line is +53

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains bearish moving into the Wednesday session. The markets are highly unstable and erratic.  Financials broke down yesterday but recovered. To create market downside, the bears need to push the XLF under 17.21, then to gain even more bear fuel, push UTIL under 469.  The bulls will fight back by keeping XLF and UTIL in the bull camp and at the same time push the VIX under 15.70. Lower volatility (VIX under 15.70) will signal that the bulls have a solid recovery rally in place.

For the SPX starting at 1497, the bulls need to touch the 1499 handle and hold it a few minutes. This would launch an upside acceleration to 1503 and/or 1505. The bears need to push the SPX lower to 1485. This would accelerate the downside towards testing the 50-day MA at 1478. A move through 1486-1498 is sideways action today. Watch XLF 17.21 closely at the opening bell.

3/3/13; 7:00 PM EST =

3/1/13; 10:00 AM EST =

2/28/13; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

2/26/13; 11:51 AM EST = +33; signal line is +53

2/26/13; 11:13 AM EST = +17; signal line is +54

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short. The drama continues around XLF 17.21. The XLF is now at 17.28 which allows the bulls to maintain sideways to slightly higher markets. The bears need to push the XLF under 17.21 to create another down leg in the broad indexes.

3/1/13; 10:00 AM EST =

2/28/13; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

2/26/13; 11:51 AM EST = +33; signal line is +53

2/26/13; 11:13 AM EST = +17; signal line is +54

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short as the Tuesday session motors along. The XLF is fighting at the 17.21 bull-bear line in the sand. Watch to see who wins. The broad indexes will follow the winner. The bears are comfortably in control.

3/1/13; 10:00 AM EST =

2/28/13; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

2/26/13; 11:13 AM EST = +17; signal line is +54

2/26/13; 10:00 AM EST = +33; signal line is +56

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short as an active day for the algo begins. The pre-scheduled print a short time ago shows the algo number 22 points under the signal line. Thus, the caution flag is removed, for now. Yesterday shows how wildly the market can change and with elevated volatility now, this action will only become more dramatic. RTH recovered above 45.54 as anticipated, now back in the bull camp. The financials are on the ragged edge of causing serious market downside. Watch XLF 17.21 and the current print is 17.26 only hanging on by a nickel. VIX is 17.76, creating bearishness, well above the critical bull-bear line at 15.70.

The SPX is moving sideways today so far. The broad indexes will travel flat today if the XLF stays above 17.21. Watch XLF closely since a failure at 17.21 will usher in strong market selling sending the SPX to the 50-day MA at 1478-ish.

3/1/13; 10:00 AM EST =

2/28/13; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

2/26/13; 10:00 AM EST = +33; signal line is +56

2/26/13; 9:37 AM EST = +33; signal line is +57

2/26/13; 9:35 AM EST = +17; signal line is +58

2/26/13; 9:32 AM EST = +31; signal line is +59

2/26/13; 9:30 AM EST = +17; signal line is +60

2/25/13; 3:59 PM EST = +31; signal line is +61

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is bearish going into the Tuesday session. Yesterday was a wild market day.  RTH dropped under 45.54, by pennies, which creates market bearishness. At the opening bell it would not be surprising to see RTH recover. XLF 17.21 is important as well and remains one nickel on the bullish side. Thus, as an initial gauge for markets at the opening bell, the bears want RTH to stay under 45.54 and pull XLF under 17.21. The market bulls want to keep XLF above 17.21 and pull RTH above 45.54.  VIX 15.70 is most important. Even if the broad indexes recover substantially today, if the VIX stays above 15.70 the bears have no worries.

For the SPX starting today at 1488, the bears only need to see a smidge of red in the futures and that will create a further downside acceleration at the open. The bulls will simply try to stop the downside momo by targeting RTH 45.54 and VIX 15.70.  The HD earnings is due to hit in minutes and that will dictate the RTH movement. A move through 1489-1525 is sideways movement today. Markets remain unstable and erratic. Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number at 10 AM so the action can be updated at that time.

2/28/13; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

2/26/13; 10:00 AM EST =

2/25/13; 3:59 PM EST = +31; signal line is +61

2/25/13; 3:20 PM EST = +47; signal line is +62; go short 1502; (Benchmark SPX for 2013  = +5.3%)(Keybot this trade = -1.3%; Keybot for 2013 = +2.2%)(Actual this trade = -1.5%; Actual for 2013 = +1.0%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips back to the bear side at SPX 1502. It is very rare for the algorithm to flip twice in one day. It's easy to see that today was a special market day.  The huge jump in volatility caused the mayhem, the VIX is up 34% today. The bears are fine as long as the VIX stays above 15.60. The retail sector crumbled into the close adding additional bear fuel. The erratic market behavior will probably continue. Keybot took a second loss today exiting SPY and entering SH. The set up for markets tomorrow can be studied after the dust clears. Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number tomorrow morning.

3/3/13; 7:00 PM EST =

3/1/13; 10:00 AM EST =

2/28/13; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

2/26/13; 10:00 AM EST =

2/25/13; 3:59 PM EST = +31; signal line is +61

2/25/13; 3:20 PM EST = +47; signal line is +62; go short 1502; (Benchmark SPX for 2013  = +5.3%)(Keybot this trade = -1.3%; Keybot for 2013 = +2.2%)(Actual this trade = -1.5%; Actual for 2013 = +1.0%)

2/25/13; 1:40 PM EST = +47; signal line is +62 but algorithm says stay long

2/25/13; 9:30 AM EST = +63; signal line is +62; go long 1522; (Benchmark SPX for 2013  = +6.7%)(Keybot this trade = -1.6%; Keybot for 2013 = +3.5%)(Actual this trade = -3.3%; Actual for 2013 = +2.5%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long through today's wild roller coaster ride.  The algo wants to filp back to the short side but internal programming rules are holding it back and keeping it long. SPX 1502 is important for the quant; under 1502 and a flip to the short side is likely. Markets remain erratic and a big reversal does occur today. The VIX catapulted higher creating the negativity. VIX is now printing 16.63.

3/3/13; 7:00 PM EST =

3/1/13; 10:00 AM EST =

2/28/13; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

2/26/13; 10:00 AM EST =

2/25/13; 1:40 PM EST = +47; signal line is +62 but algorithm says stay long

2/25/13; 9:30 AM EST = +63; signal line is +62; go long 1522; (Benchmark SPX for 2013  = +6.7%)(Keybot this trade = -1.6%; Keybot for 2013 = +3.5%)(Actual this trade = -3.3%; Actual for 2013 = +2.5%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant flips back to the long side creating a whipsaw (a move from short back to long within 2 days trading). The algo exits the double-leveraged SDS taking a 3% loss and rotates back to SPY, a single ETF. Markets remain highly unstable and erratic so the quant wants to stick with single ETF's again. The SPX Benchmark Index is now up almost 7% on the year. The bulls keep running. As always with a turn, stay alert for a whipsaw back to the short side. The markets are in a sideways churn through 1497-1531. As noted by the one tick difference between the algo number and signal line, the markets are a toss-up and anything can happen. It would not even be surprising to see Keybot whipsaw back to the short side today which is a very rare occurrence where two moves occur in one day, only happening once in the history of the algorithm. Use VIX 15.60+ (now under causing market bullishness) as a key metric today.

3/3/13; 7:00 PM EST =

3/1/13; 10:00 AM EST =

2/28/13; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

2/26/13; 10:00 AM EST =

2/25/13; 9:30 AM EST = +63; signal line is +62; go long 1522; (Benchmark SPX for 2013  = +6.7%)(Keybot this trade = -1.6%; Keybot for 2013 = -3.5%)(Actual this trade = -3.3%; Actual for 2013 = +2.5%)

2/24/13; 7:00 PM EST = +63; signal line is +62 but algorithm says stay short

2/21/13; 3:04 PM EST = +63; signal line is +60 but algorithm says stay short

2/21/13; 2:08 PM EST = +47; signal line is +59; go short 1498; (Benchmark SPX for 2013  = +5.1%)(Keybot this trade = +5.1%; Keybot for 2013 = +5.1%)(Actual this trade = +5.8%; Actual for 2013 = +5.8%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant is short going into the Monday opening bell but a whipsaw back to the long side is anticipated. The algo would not latch as price moved up Friday but should click in to flip long tomorrow and log a loss for the move.  Note however, how the bulls and bears are on a fine line, the algo number and signal line are on top of each other at 62-63, so a move either way can occur right now. The markets remain very indecisive, erratic and unstable. Watch GTX 4927, VIX 15.70 and RTH 45.50 for clues (all three are contributing bullishly to markets currently).  RTH will be greatly affected by the retail earnings reports this week. The China Flash PMI this evening at 8:45 PM EST is key. The data will immediately push copper and commodities one way or the other and this may determine broad market direction into Tuesday.

For the SPX starting at 1516, closing at the highs on Friday after the Fed's Bullard created a large money-pumping day, the bulls only need a smidge of positivity in the futures overnight and the upside will run higher to test the 1520 resistance in a heartbeat. The bears need to retrace Friday's move and push under 1503 to regain mojo, a formidable task but not impossible. A move through 1504-1515 is sideways action. Three pre-scheduled numbers print this week. An active week is anticipated for the algo and even if Keybot flips long tomorrow stay alert because a whipsaw back to the short side would not be unreasonable.

3/3/13; 7:00 PM EST =

3/1/13; 10:00 AM EST =

2/28/13; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

2/26/13; 10:00 AM EST =

2/24/13; 7:00 PM EST = +63; signal line is +62 but algorithm says stay short

2/21/13; 3:04 PM EST = +63; signal line is +60 but algorithm says stay short

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short motoring along yesterday without printing any numbers. The algo number is three ticks above the signal line and the quant wants to go long but is held back by internal programming rules. Keybot will likely flip back to the long side at Monday's opening bell. Copper, commodities and volatility are the three main influences on the market as the week closed out.  The stronger dollar helped the bears last week. Next week can be set up once the pre-scheduled Sunday number prints tomorrow. Interestingly, China Flash PMI will immediately push copper and commodities strongly in one direction or the other on Monday and that will likely dictate market direction early in the new week. 

2/24/13; 7:00 PM EST =

2/21/13; 3:04 PM EST = +63; signal line is +60 but algorithm says stay short

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is short after two months of pure non-stop upside.  The bearish move may be quickly negated tomorrow unless the bears keep pushing.  VIX 15.74 is key; bears need to push volatility back above this level, otherwise, the bulls will move the broad indexes higher.  Other sectors and levels to watch are GTX 4927, RTH 45.50, and interestingly, SOX 409. Semiconductors are now back on the radar screen after their collapse today. If the bulls can keep all four parameters bullish, the markets will rise.  If the bears touch any of the levels above, the downside will accelerate in force.

For the SPX starting at 1502, the bulls need to push through the 1512-1513 level, if so, the upside will accelerate further. Keybot will likely whipsaw back to the long side if the 1512-1513 level is achieved.  The bears need to push the SPX under 1497 and the downside will accelerate. A move through 1498-1511 is sideways action. VIX 15.74 will tell you a lot at the opening bell. The bears are driving the bus but the bulls are already fighting to regain control. Stay alert. Markets remain very unstable.

2/24/13; 7:00 PM EST =

2/21/13; 3:04 PM EST = +63; signal line is +60 but algorithm says stay short

2/21/13; 2:08 PM EST = +47; signal line is +59; go short 1498; (Benchmark SPX for 2013  = +5.1%)(Keybot this trade = +5.1%; Keybot for 2013 = +5.1%)(Actual this trade = +5.8%; Actual for 2013 = +5.8%)

SPX Daily Chart Showing Keybot the Quant Algorithm Turns

Current signal remains valid until a change occurs.
2/21/13:  Keybot the Quant flipped to the short side at 2:08 PM EST at SPX 1498.  For the year thus far, SPX Benchmark Index is up 5.1%; Keybot is up 5.1%; Keybot actual trading is up 5.8%.
12/31/12:  Keybot the Quant flipped to the long side at 2:51 PM EST at SPX 1419 and the year ended only a few hours later resulting in the following closing numbers for 2012; SPX Benchmark was up 13.4% closing at 1426; Keybot was up 22.3%; Keybot actual trading was up 20.0%.
12/20/12:  Keybot the Quant flipped to the short side at 9:44 AM EST at SPX 1435.  For the year thus far, SPX Benchmark is up 14.1%; Keybot is up 20.8%; Keybot actual trading is up 18.1%.
12/11/12:  Keybot the Quant flipped to the long side at 9:35 AM EST at SPX 1426.  For the year thus far, SPX Benchmark is up 13.4%; Keybot is up 20.2%; Keybot actual trading is up 18.0%.
12/4/12:  Keybot the Quant flipped to the short side at 11:05 AM EST at SPX 1407.  For the year thus far, SPX Benchmark is up 12.0%; Keybot is up 21.6%; Keybot actual trading is up 19.5%.
11/28/12:  Keybot the Quant flipped to the long side at 3:51 PM EST at SPX 1409.  For the year thus far, SPX Benchmark is up 12.0%; Keybot is up 21.7%; Keybot actual trading is up 19.6%.
11/27/12: Keybot the Quant flipped the short side at 3:56 PM EST at SPX 1399. For the year thus far, SPX Benchmark is up 11.2%; Keybot is up 22.4%; Keybot actual trading is up 21.1%.
11/19/12:  Keybot the Quant flipped to the long side at 9:30 AM EST at SPX 1370.  For the year thus far, SPX Benchmark is up 8.9%; Keybot is up 20.3%; Keybot actual trading is up 17.5%.
10/19/12:  Keybot the Quant flipped to the short side at 11:49 AM EST at SPX 1442; for the year thus far, SPX Benchmark is up 14.6%; Keybot is up 15.3%; Keybot actual trading is up 8.6%.
10/16/12: Keybot the Quant flipped to the long side at 9:31 AM EST at SPX 1446; for the year thus far, SPX Benchmark is up 14.9%; Keybot is up 15.6%; Keybot actual trading is up 9.3%.
10/9/12: Keybot the Quant flipped to the short side at 10:42 AM EST at SPX 1452.  For the year thus far, SPX Benchmark is up 15.4%; Keybot is up 15.2%; Keybot actual trading is up 8.8%.
10/1/12: Keybot the Quant flipped to the long side at 10:00 AM EST at SPX 1453.  For the year thus far, SPX Benchmark is up 15.5%; Keybot is up 15.3%; Keybot actual trading is up 8.9%.
9/17/12: Keybot the Quant flipped to the short side at 2:11 PM EST at SPX 1460.  For the year thus far, SPX Benchmark is up 16.1%; Keybot is up 14.7%; Keybot actual trading is up 7.7%.

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is short but the bulls waste no time to fight back. The VIX drops back under 15.74 turning bullish once again.  The SPX is moving higher.

2/24/13; 7:00 PM EST =

2/21/13; 3:04 PM EST = +63; signal line is +60 but algorithm says stay short

2/21/13; 2:08 PM EST = +47; signal line is +59; go short 1498; (Benchmark SPX for 2013  = +5.1%)(Keybot this trade = +5.1%; Keybot for 2013 = +5.1%)(Actual this trade = +5.8%; Actual for 2013 = +5.8%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH - -SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flipped to the short side but as always, stay alert for a whipsaw move, especially in these markets. Keybot sold the DIA long trade and entered SDS for the short side. The year begins with a 5% gain in the SPX, the algorithm program and the actual trading. The VIX is dropping again through the critical 15.74 bull-bear line in the sand. This is important moving forward.

2/24/13; 7:00 PM EST =

2/21/13; 2:08 PM EST = +47; signal line is +59; go short 1498; (Benchmark SPX for 2013  = +5.1%)(Keybot this trade = +5.1%; Keybot for 2013 = +5.1%)(Actual this trade = +5.8%; Actual for 2013 = +5.8%)

2/21/13; 12:22 PM EST = +47; signal line is +58 but algorithm says stay long

2/20/13; 9:00 AM EST = +63; signal line is +57

2/19/13; 9:37 AM EST = +63; signal line is +56

2/17/13; 7:00 PM EST = +79; signal line is +54

2/15/13; 10:00 AM EST = +79; signal line is +53

2/14/13; 1:17 PM EST = +79; signal line is +51

2/14/13; 1:07 PM EST = +63; signal line is +50

2/11/13; 9:37 AM EST = +79; signal line is +49

2/10/13; 7:00 PM EST = +63; signal line is +47

2/7/13; 10:10 AM EST = +63; signal line is +47

2/7/13; 9:36 AM EST = +79; signal line is +46

2/3/13; 7:00 PM EST = +63; signal line is +44

2/1/13; 10:00 AM EST = +63; signal line is +44

2/1/13; 9:00 AM EST = +63; signal line is +42

1/31/13; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +63; signal line is +41

1/29/13; 10:00 AM EST = +63; signal line is +40

1/27/13; 7:00 PM EST = +63; signal line is +40

1/25/13; 12:06 PM EST = +63; signal line is +39

1/25/13; 10:24 AM EST = +47; signal line is +37

1/24/13; 2:43 PM EST = +63; signal line is +36

1/24/13; 1:43 PM EST = +47; signal line is +34

1/24/13; 9:50 AM EST = +63; signal line is +33

1/20/13; 7:00 PM EST = +47; signal line is +30

1/18/13; 10:00 AM EST = +47; signal line is +28

1/17/13; 9:30 AM EST = +47; signal line is +26

1/17/13; 9:00 AM EST = +17; signal line is +23 but algorithm says stay long

1/16/13; 3:52 PM EST = +17; signal line is +22 but algorithm says stay long

1/16/13; 3:00 PM EST = +31; signal line is +20

1/16/13; 12:02 PM EST = +17; signal line is +19 but algorithm says stay long

1/16/13; 11:04 AM EST = +31; signal line is +18

1/16/13; 9:30 AM EST = +17; signal line is +17 but algorithm says stay long

1/15/13; 2:10 PM EST = +33; signal line is +16

1/15/13; 11:14 AM EST = +47; signal line is +15

1/15/13; 10:50 AM EST = +31; signal line is +13

1/15/13; 10:12 AM EST = +47; signal line is +12

1/15/13; 9:30 AM EST = +31; signal line is +9

1/14/13; 2:15 PM EST = +47; signal line is +8

1/13/13; 7:00 PM EST = +33; signal line is +7

1/10/13; 10:15 AM EST = +33; signal line is +5

1/10/13; 9:30 AM EST = +47; signal line is +4

1/6/13; 7:00 PM EST = +33; signal line is +3

1/4/13; 9:00 AM EST = +33; signal line is +2

1/2/13; 10:45 AM EST = +33; signal line is +0

1/2/13; 10:26 AM EST = +47; signal line is -1

1/2/13; 9:30 AM EST = +33; signal line is -3

1/1/13; Begin 2013 Data Set = +17; signal line is -4; go long 1426; (Benchmark SPX for 2013  = 0%)(Keybot this trade = 0%; Keybot for 2013 = 0%)(Actual this trade = 0%; Actual for 2013 = 0%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant is long but the algo wants to go short right now. The algo number slipped under the signal line but internal programming rules are holding the quant back from flipping short. There are several metrics that must fall into place but as a general rule, if the SPX drops under 1499.50 and stays under for about five minutes, that should finally create the trigger for the move to the short side. Stay tuned. A turn appears imminent, now only pennies away. Watch VIX 15.74 which will dictate market direction the remainder of the day.

2/24/13; 7:00 PM EST =

2/21/13; 12:22 PM EST = +47; signal line is +58 but algorithm says stay long

2/20/13; 9:00 AM EST = +63; signal line is +57

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long although the bears are pushing hard.  VIX ran up through 15.70 but could not hold the level. GTX is knocking on the 4930 door. For now, the bulls are hanging on, however, a turn may be imminent. Pay attention to the LOD's today for the SPX; today's low thus far is 1499.56.  As an internal programming rule, Keybot will not flip short unless this level is lost today.

2/24/13; 7:00 PM EST =

2/20/13; 9:00 AM EST = +63; signal line is +57

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant is long going into the Thursday session. The algorithm motored along yesterday without printing any numbers. The algo number is only six ticks away from the signal line. Watch UTIL 468, RTH 45.45, GTX 4930, XLF 17.20 and VIX 15.70.  If any of the levels are touched, Keybot will likely flip to the short side.  The bulls need to push JJC back up above 46.35 to stop the market slide but copper is further weakening this morning.

For the SPX starting at 1512, the bulls need to retrace yesterday's move, a formidable task, so instead they will simply try to prevent more downside and that can be accomplished if all five parameters above stay in the bull camp.  The bears only need a smidge of negativity in the futures and the downside will continue, the SPX likely testing strong support at 1505. A move through 1513-1530 is sideways action today. A turn may be imminent. Keybot has been long since 12/31/12, about two months. Pay close attention to RTH 45.45 and VIX 15.70.

2/24/13; 7:00 PM EST =

2/20/13; 9:00 AM EST = +63; signal line is +57

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is long moving into the Wednesday session. The pre-scheduled number prints resulting in a one-tick increase to the signal line. Watch UTIL 468, JJC 46.50 and GTX 4930. Copper is weak again this morning.  The dollar is higher. The futures are flat unable to firmly commit to the bull case as yet. The bulls only need to see a smidge of upside and this will accelerate a move higher once again. The bears must push the SPX under 1520 to accelerate the downside. A move through 1521-1530 is sideways action today.

2/24/13; 7:00 PM EST =

2/20/13; 9:00 AM EST = +63; signal line is +57

2/19/13; 9:37 AM EST = +63; signal line is +56

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is long and does not print any additional numbers today after this morning's print. It is very surprising and uncharacteristic market behavior to see copper take such a dramatic fall today and the SPX to run higher and punch out new highs. The SPX punched through the 1524.69 previous high so the run to 1531 resistance occurred and that is exactly where price stopped for the evening. The VIX was flat today, finishing down one percent, but would have been expected to be down about 3% considering the upside market move. Watch UTIL 468 (now bullish), JJC 46.50 (now bearish) and GTX 4930 (now bullish). The bulls will be in full control if they bring JJC back above 46.50. The bears need a higher dollar and lower euro which will drag JJC and GTX lower.

For the SPX, starting at a new yearly high at 1531, the bulls only need to see a smidge of positivity in the overnight futures and the upside will accelerate further to test 1540 resistance.  Above that is strong R at 1548 and 1553. The bears need to push under 1520, eleven points lower, to regain their momo, a formidable task but not at all impossible. A move through 1521-1530 is sideways action. Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number at 9 AM tomorrow so the action can be updated at that time.

2/20/13; 9:00 AM EST =

2/19/13; 9:37 AM EST = +63; signal line is +56

2/17/13; 7:00 PM EST = +79; signal line is +54

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is long and prints a number right away to start the holiday-shortened week of trading. The algo number is now only seven ticks away from the signal line. JJC dropped like a stone helping bears but UTIL catapults higher helping bulls. The broad indexes should weaken as long as JJC stays under 46.50. JJC is now printing 46.41.

2/20/13; 9:00 AM EST =

2/19/13; 9:37 AM EST = +63; signal line is +56

2/17/13; 7:00 PM EST = +79; signal line is +54

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is bullish moving into the new week of trading which begins on Tuesday morning. Markets are closed Monday in Observance of President's Day.  The +79 is an uber bullish number that indicates a top is occurring at anytime forward. The quant is tracking, in order of importance, UTIL 468.08, JJC 46.50, VIX 15.75 and RTH 45.35. All four parameters are bullish so if any of the levels are touched the markets will sell off and the number of parameters that turn bearish determines the extent of the broad market selling. If all four parameters remain bullish, the bulls are sitting back with their feet up on the desk. Watch the dollar and euro closely over the coming days. Higher dollar = lower euro = lower copper, commodities and equities, and, lower dollar = higher euro = higher copper, commodities and equities.

For the SPX beginning at 1520, the bulls need to punch through the intraday high for this year at 1524.69 and the upside will accelerate to test 1531. The bears need to push under the 1514-1515 support and that will accelerate a move to 1511, 1509 and 1505. A move through 1516-1523 is sideways action. Markets are at an inflection point. Expect the unexpected. Utilities and copper are very important.

2/24/13; 7:00 PM EST =

2/20/13; 9:00 AM EST =

2/17/13; 7:00 PM EST = +79; signal line is +54

2/15/13; 10:00 AM EST = +79; signal line is +53

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is long through the holiday weekend. Markets are closed on Monday in Observance of President's  Day. The algo idled along in the Friday session without printing any numbers after the pre-scheduled number. The utilities sector remains important but only one number next week, the UTIL 50-week MA at 468.08. Retail, volatility, copper and commodities all are receiving attention by the quant as well. The dollar direction will be very important next week since a stronger dollar means a weaker euro and weaker copper and commodities (bear-friendly), or, a weaker dollar will mean a stronger euro and stronger copper and commodities (bull-friendly). The sectors and levels of interest for the shorter trading week next week can be identified once the Sunday number prints tomorrow. The bulls continue to drive the bus but the +79 number tells you a trend change to the downside can occur at anytime, any day forward.

2/17/13; 7:00 PM EST =

2/15/13; 10:00 AM EST = +79; signal line is +53

2/14/13; 1:17 PM EST = +79; signal line is +51

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is long as the pre-scheduled number prints increasing the signal line a couple ticks. The higher the signal line the easier it is for Keybot to flip short, when the time comes. The utilities sector moves higher with UTIL at 472.66 three points above danger and JJC at 47 also above danger. The bulls are trying to push through the SPX 1523-1524 level as the day continues.

2/17/13; 7:00 PM EST =

2/15/13; 10:00 AM EST = +79; signal line is +53

2/14/13; 1:17 PM EST = +79; signal line is +51

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is long moving into the Friday session. Excitement occurred yesterday as the utilities sector faltered but then recovered. The bulls are in control but the +79 number continues to indicate that markets are at or near a top. UTIL begins today at 471.02. The bulls are enjoying market buoyancy since UTIL is above 469.78 and 468.05. If these levels fail, the broad indexes will take a strong leg lower for each failure. Even though the current market rally is all sunshine and rainbows, if UTIL loses only three points, and if the SPX loses the 1514 level, it is very likely that Keybot will flip short, so the markets dance a finer line than most folks think. Interestingly, the utes are weak in European trading as this is typed. Also watch copper, JJC 46.50, another bull-bear line in the sand that would create broad market downside.

For the SPX today starting at 1521, the bulls need two points higher, to punch up through 1523, and an upside acceleration to 1530 will occur. The bears need to push under 1514, about seven points lower, to create a downside acceleration. A move through 1515-1522 is sideways action. Stay alert and pay attention to the utilities sector. A pre-scheduled number prints at 10 AM so the market action can be updated at that time.

2/15/13; 10:00 AM EST =

2/14/13; 1:17 PM EST = +79; signal line is +51

2/14/13; 1:07 PM EST = +63; signal line is +50

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is long as the Thursday session motors along. The broad indexes are flat all day long. The utilities sector leaks slowly lower and ruptures the UTIL 469.78 mentioned this morning. UTIL has recovered in the last few minutes. If UTIL drops under 469.78 and stays there the broad indexes will weaken into the close.  The algo prints two number so far today.

2/15/13; 10:00 AM EST =

2/14/13; 1:17 PM EST = +79; signal line is +51

2/14/13; 1:07 PM EST = +63; signal line is +50

2/11/13; 9:37 AM EST = +79; signal line is +49

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long moving into the Thursday session. The bears tried to push lower yesterday but did not have any energy. The algo did not print any numbers during the Wednesday session. UTIL is 475.61 well above the two key levels at 469.78 and 468.14.  Copper also remains elevated with JJC at 47.18 above the 46.45 bull-bear line in the sand. Thus, the markets remain elevated and float along sideways.

For the SPX today starting at 1520, the bulls need to touch the 1525 handle, if so, an upside acceleration to touch 1530 is on tap. The bears need to push under 1516 to accelerate a downside move. A move through 1517-1524 is sideways action. Markets appear to be topping now and the +79 reading indicates that markets should begin to roll over moving forward, however, the bears got nothing unless they can touch UTIL 469.78 or JJC 46.45. Markets are extremely unstable and erratic currently. Exercise caution.

2/15/13; 10:00 AM EST =

2/11/13; 9:37 AM EST = +79; signal line is +49

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains bullish moving into the Wednesday session. The algo did not print any numbers yesterday. The bulls are on cruise control pumping the utilities higher to keep them up away from danger. Copper also ran higher yesterday which keeps the broad indexes elevated. Watch UTIL 469.78, UTIL 468.13 and JJC 46.43. Bears got nothing unless they can move price through one of these three levels and two would be needed to position Keybot to flip short. The bears could sneak around the back door by sending the retail sector lower and/or pushing volatility higher.

For the SPX starting at 1519, the bulls need to push up through 1522, if so, an upside acceleration will occur into the high 1520's. The bears need to push under 1516 and a downside acceleration will occur to test 1511 quickly. A move through 1517-1521 is sideways action. The bulls have their feet up on the desk without worry but the elevated +79 algo number suggests a market top at anytime in the days ahead. Stay alert and cautious.

2/15/13; 10:00 AM EST =

2/11/13; 9:37 AM EST = +79; signal line is +49

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long moving into the Tuesday session. The algo printed +79 today which indicates a strongly overbot market and a top occurring now (see the previous message). Three key parameters require attention for Tuesday; UTIL 469.78, UTIL 468.13 and JJC 46.43. The bears need to touch any two of the three for Keybot to likely flip short. If the bulls keep all three in the bull camp, like now, or at least two of the three in the bull camp, the bulls will maintain control of the markets. Utilities and copper are key. Retail and volatility will likely gain prominence perhaps by late week.

For the SPX starting at 1517, the bulls only need one point higher, to poke up thru the flat-top 1518 resistance and hold above for seven to ten minutes, if so, an upside acceleration into the 1520's will occur in quick order.  The bears are left standing at the altar each day waiting for a move lower that never comes.  Bears need to push under 1514 to accelerate a downside move to test 1511 then lower.  A move thru 1515-1517 is sideways action. Stay alert since the markets may be hitting an inflection point over the next day or two.

2/15/13; 10:00 AM EST =

2/11/13; 9:37 AM EST = +79; signal line is +49

2/10/13; 7:00 PM EST = +63; signal line is +47

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long as the new week of trading is underway.  UTIL is flat at 474.13 so the bulls rule remaining elevated above 469.78 and 468.12 (note the 50-week MA for $UTIL is moving up). The algo is now tracking copper, JJC 46.43, as a bull-bear line in the sand. JJC is now printing 46.97 fifty-four cents away. The markets are moving flat today. The SPX cannot yet move above 1518 to launch an upside acceleration and the low is no where near the 1509, yet, thus, sideways.  Interestingly, if UTIL falls under both levels shown, Keybot will likely flip short, also, if UTIL 469.78 is lost, and JJC 46.43 is lost, that would likely be enough for the algo to put on the bear suit. For now, the bulls continue driving the bus.

Note the lofty +79 reading, very high.  Keybot the Quant algorithm is an oscillator at its heart, so when the quant prints very low numbers, say -73 and lower, that signals oversold conditions and a market that is bottoming and ready to recover. Conversely, when the quant prints very high numbers, say +73 and higher, that signals overbot conditions and a market that is topping and ready to sell off. The RSI, MACD and stochastics are examples of other oscillators where overbot and oversold levels are used for analysis so view this discussion in a similar context.  The quant just printed +79, what does that tell you?  Here are three other hints.  In February-March 2012, the quant printed +76 which identified the market top.  In September 2012, Keybot printed +76 identifying the market top. In mid-November 2012, the quant printed -74 which identified the 11/15/12 market bottom. Well, what do you think?  Stay alert and guarded.  Markets appear to be far too elevated.

2/17/13; 7:00 PM EST =

2/15/13; 10:00 AM EST =

2/11/13; 9:37 AM EST = +79; signal line is +49

2/10/13; 7:00 PM EST = +63; signal line is +47

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is bullish moving into the new week. The utilities are key with UTIL 469.78 and 467.71 two very important levels. UTIL starts the week at 474.46, above both levels, so the bulls are in control of the broad markets, and the algo will likely print a higher number shortly after the opening bell. If both of those levels are lost, however, Keybot will likely flip short. UTIL 470 would serve as the warning signal. If the bulls keep UTIL above 470 they are fine, if 470 fails, the markets are in serious trouble.

For the SPX starting at 1518, the bulls only need to see a smidge of positivity in the futures overnight and an upside acceleration will occur into the 1520's.  The bears need to push under 1509 to accelerate the downside to 1505 and 1503. A move through 1510-1517 is sideways action. Keybot prints one pre-scheduled number this week on Friday morning. Markets remains erratic and unstable.

2/17/13; 7:00 PM EST =

2/15/13; 10:00 AM EST =

2/10/13; 7:00 PM EST = +63; signal line is +47

2/7/13; 10:10 AM EST = +63; signal line is +47

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long through the weekend. The utilities remain the prime focus of the algo. Even though UTIL did not move and stay above 475.49 last week, this number goes away and is replaced with 469.78, which would place the current print, at 474.46 above, and place another feather in the bulls cap moving forward.  However, something else interesting is setting up with the utes and the markets are much closer to the edge than traders realize. Next week's areas and numbers of interest can be highlighted tomorrow after the pre-scheduled Sunday number prints.

2/10/13; 7:00 PM EST =

2/7/13; 10:10 AM EST = +63; signal line is +47

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long going into the Friday session. The bulls continue to steer the bus and need to see UTIL 475.49 today to launch another market up move. It becomes easier for the bulls since next week the UTIL 469.78 is in play all week long, a much easier beat. Watch UTIL 469.78 into the closing bell today since this will place bulls in a strong position for Monday with a close above.  The bears need to push UTIL under 469.78 before the closing bell today and also target 467.71 to regain their mojo. The algo is now tracking copper again. Watch JJC 46.25 as a bull-bear line in the sand, JJC starts today at 47.08. VIX 15.90 is also important and starts today at 13.50.

For the SPX starting at 1509, the bulls need to touch the 1513 handle and it will launch an upside acceleration. The bears need to push under the strong 1498-1499 support level to accelerate the downside. A move through 1500-1512 is sideways action. Markets are erratic and unstable but the bulls continue to grind higher.

2/10/13; 7:00 PM EST =

2/7/13; 10:10 AM EST = +63; signal line is +47

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long.  It took four days for the algo to print numbers this week.  The utilities moved into the bull camp but quickly retreated back to the bears and now drops lower with UTIL printing 472.72. The signal line is ratcheting higher and causing the caution flag to return. If UTIL drops under 467.67, or, if VIX moves above 16, Keybot will likely flip short. The SPX dropped under 1505 highlighted last evening so the LOD at 1499.65 came quickly.  Watch the utes.

2/10/13; 7:00 PM EST =

2/7/13; 10:10 AM EST = +63; signal line is +47

2/7/13; 9:36 AM EST = +79; signal line is +46

2/3/13; 7:00 PM EST = +63; signal line is +44

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long as three days pass this week and the algo has not printed any numbers yet this week.  The excitement settles around the utilities sector which will determine market direction.  The bulls need UTIL 475.49 and higher. The bears need UTIL 467.69 and lower.  UTIL sits at 473.39. Tomorrow may tell the tale.

For the SPX on Thursdays starting at 1512, the bulls only need to push pennies higher to ignite an upside acceleration. Therefore, the overnight futures are uber important, and the ECB rate decision occurs at 7:45 AM EST, which will push the futures one way or the other providing the answer. The bears need negative futures and to push under 1505 to accelerate the downside to 1498 in quick order.  A move thru 1506-1511 is sideways action. Bears got nothing unless they can grab UTIL 467.69.

2/10/13; 7:00 PM EST =

2/3/13; 7:00 PM EST = +63; signal line is +44

2/1/13; 10:00 AM EST = +63; signal line is +44

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long as the drama plays out in the utilities sector.  UTIL closed at 472.52 unable to decide if the nod is given for market bulls to take markets higher (UTIL 475.49), or, if the bears will win forcing markets well under SPX 1500 if UTIL 467.67 is lost.  The theatrics continue until a winner is decided. VIX 16 is also key and RTH 45.20 is coming on the radar screen.

For the SPX starting at 1511, the bulls need to touch the 1515 handle, if so, the markets will accelerate higher and 1520's are on the way.  The bears must retrace the Tuesday up move and push under 1496 to regain downside momo. A move thru 1497-1514 is sideways action.

2/10/13; 7:00 PM EST =

2/3/13; 7:00 PM EST = +63; signal line is +44

2/1/13; 10:00 AM EST = +63; signal line is +44

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long and did not print any numbers during the Monday session. The algo identifies utilities as the main sector influencing broad market direction. Yesterday, the bears prevented the UTIL 475.49 from occurring which weakened markets. However, the bears could not push under UTIL 467.65 so this stalls the market downside. Very simply, bulls win and markets go up if UTIL moves above 475.49. The bears win and markets move lower if UTIL drops under 467.65.  UTIL is at 471.36, smack-dab in the middle of the two parameters, thus, equilibrium. Basically, whichever way the utes move, the markets will move.  The quant is also showing increased interest in volatility. VIX is 14.67 and the 15.90-16.00 area is setting up as the bull-bear line in the sand. If UTIL drops under 467.65 and VIX moves above 16, Keybot will likely flip short. The futures show that an up move is on tap for the SPX this morning.

For the SPX starting at the strong 1496 support, the bulls need to retrace yesterday's move to 1513 to regain their momo, formidable, but not impossible. Look at how yesterday's down move retraced Friday's up move, and then some. The bears only need one single point lower, to push under 1495 and the downside will accelerate to a test of 1489 quickly. The 1485 level is very strong support. A move though 1497-1512 is sideways action today. Markets are erratic and unstable. The caution flag is not displayed in the title but the markets appear shaky. UTIL 475.49 and 467.65 will tell a lot today.

2/10/13; 7:00 PM EST =

2/3/13; 7:00 PM EST = +63; signal line is +44

2/1/13; 10:00 AM EST = +63; signal line is +44

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant is long going into the new week of trading. There are no pre-scheduled numbers this week so Keybot is at the mercy of the markets. UTIL is now at 474.53.  The bulls need to push UTIL up thru 475.49 and the upside will explode higher. The bears must prevent 475.49 since this will prevent further market upside.  The bears then must push UTIL lower and under 467.29, if so, that will dramatically increase market selling.

For the SPX starting at 1513, the bulls only need to see one point higher, 1514+, and the upside orgy will continue to begin the week. The bears need to retrace Friday's move to develop any mojo, a formidable task, but not impossible. The bears would be content with simply driving UTIL lower since that will bring the markets down. A move thru SPX 1499-1513 is sideways action. Markets are erratic and unstable. Stay alert. UTIL 475.49 will dictate market direction after the opening bell rings.

2/10/13; 7:00 PM EST =

2/3/13; 7:00 PM EST = +63; signal line is +44

2/1/13; 10:00 AM EST = +63; signal line is +44

STOCK MARKET BULLISH - LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long thru the weekend. The bulls are taking no prisoners. The free money in the world is pumping new asset bubbles. The only remaining line of defense for bears is UTIL 475.49. This number is in play all next week. The broad markets will take another leg higher if UTIL punches up thru 475.49. The bears must prevent 475.49.  Note in the Friday session, how the utilities fought to move through this level but the bears stopped the bulls, for now. Next weeks areas and levels of interest can be identified once Keybot prints the pre-scheduled number tomorrow.

2/3/13; 7:00 PM EST =

2/1/13; 10:00 AM EST = +63; signal line is +44

2/1/13; 9:00 AM EST = +63; signal line is +42

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long. The pre-scheduled number causes a two point tick higher in the signal line. The bulls are running strong.  UTIL came up to test 475.49 and pulled back. Watch this closely today. Markets are highly unstable and erratic.

2/3/13; 7:00 PM EST =

2/1/13; 10:00 AM EST = +63; signal line is +44

2/1/13; 9:00 AM EST = +63; signal line is +42

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long moving into the Friday session. The pre-scheduled number results in a one tick move higher in the signal line. Another pre-scheduled number prints at 10 AM.

2/3/13; 7:00 PM EST =

2/1/13; 10:00 AM EST =

2/1/13; 9:00 AM EST = +63; signal line is +42

1/31/13; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +63; signal line is +41