Monday, February 25, 2013

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant flips back to the long side creating a whipsaw (a move from short back to long within 2 days trading). The algo exits the double-leveraged SDS taking a 3% loss and rotates back to SPY, a single ETF. Markets remain highly unstable and erratic so the quant wants to stick with single ETF's again. The SPX Benchmark Index is now up almost 7% on the year. The bulls keep running. As always with a turn, stay alert for a whipsaw back to the short side. The markets are in a sideways churn through 1497-1531. As noted by the one tick difference between the algo number and signal line, the markets are a toss-up and anything can happen. It would not even be surprising to see Keybot whipsaw back to the short side today which is a very rare occurrence where two moves occur in one day, only happening once in the history of the algorithm. Use VIX 15.60+ (now under causing market bullishness) as a key metric today.

3/3/13; 7:00 PM EST =
3/1/13; 10:00 AM EST =
2/28/13; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
2/26/13; 10:00 AM EST =
2/25/13; 9:30 AM EST = +63; signal line is +62; go long 1522; (Benchmark SPX for 2013  = +6.7%)(Keybot this trade = -1.6%; Keybot for 2013 = -3.5%)(Actual this trade = -3.3%; Actual for 2013 = +2.5%)
2/24/13; 7:00 PM EST = +63; signal line is +62 but algorithm says stay short
2/21/13; 3:04 PM EST = +63; signal line is +60 but algorithm says stay short
2/21/13; 2:08 PM EST = +47; signal line is +59; go short 1498; (Benchmark SPX for 2013  = +5.1%)(Keybot this trade = +5.1%; Keybot for 2013 = +5.1%)(Actual this trade = +5.8%; Actual for 2013 = +5.8%)

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