Monday, December 30, 2013

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long. The last day of trading for 2013 is on tap tomorrow and Keybot prints two pre-scheduled numbers. The algo has to be closed out for the year and then 2014 begins with a clean slate again. UTIL is at 489 between the 493.50 the bulls need to signal more markets upside, and the 485.33 that will create broad market selling. Volatility jumped today but the bears need VIX 14.15 and higher to create market selling. VIX is at 13.56. Commodities lost ground as well dropping to GTX 4856 but the bears need 4822 to create market selling. Thus, things are status quo in Monday's trade. Equities float sideways.

For Tuesday, the EOM, EOQ4, EOY2013, last trading day of the year, starting at SPX 1841, the bulls need to push up through 1842.50 and the upside will accelerate to 1845 in a heartbeat and then potentially on to 1850. The bears need to push under 1839 to accelerate the downside. A move through 1840-1842 is sideways action. Surprisingly, the SPX remained in a tight 3-point range to begin the week. Considering the tight available sideways range for Tuesday, one side or the other should win; happy bulls above 1842.50 and happy bears under 1839. If UTIL drops under 485.33, GTX under 4822, and/or VIX above 14.15, any 2 of the 3 would do, Keybot would be in position to flip short. If any of the 3 parameters turn bearish a lid will be placed on the market upside and the caution flag will be out. Bulls need UTIL above 493.50 to take the SPX above 1850.

12/31/13; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ4 EOY2013 =
12/31/13; 10:00 AM EST =
12/29/13; 7:00 PM EST = +61; signal line is +38

Sunday, December 29, 2013

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long as the markets continue higher on holiday cheer. The bulls need to push UTIL above 492.93 and the bears need to push UTIL under 485.33. UTIL begins the week at 487.94. Without UTIL 492.93, the broad indexes should float sideways with a slight upward bias but instead the bulls are pushing price strongly higher. The bears need to push VIX above 14 to create market downside in addition to a push under UTIL 485.33. The bulls are cruising. Markets remain erratic and unstable.

The month, quarter and year ends on Tuesday evening; EOM, EOQ4, EOY2013. Despite the near non-stop upside for equities this year, the algorithms in general have difficulty due to the low volatility and low volume overall environment. A clean slate begins on Thursday morning for 2014. Keybot's results will be closed out for the end of the year and a new year for the algo will begin.

12/31/13; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ4 EOY2013 =
12/31/13; 10:00 AM EST = 
12/29/13; 7:00 PM EST = +61; signal line is +38
12/23/13; 10:00 AM EST = +61; signal line is +38

Friday, December 27, 2013

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long as the bulls continue the upside market orgy in thin trading. The key parameters currently tracked by the algo continue to maintain status quo so the sideways to upward bias markets continue. The surprise is the extent of the price thrust higher. Utilities are the top parameter in focus currently. UTIL is 487.12. For this week, ending today, the bulls need UTIL 493 and higher to signal extended broad market upside ahead and the bears need UTIL under 477 to begin market selling. Price remains between the two parameters so there is very little impact on equities. For next week, however, the UTIL 477 number becomes meaningless and is replaced by 485.33. This is important since price is less than two ticks above. Watch UTIL into the closing bell today. If UTIL closes above 485.33, Monday will continue the bull party higher. If UTIL closes below 485.33, the market bears will show up first thing on Monday morning to flex their muscles in the broad indexes.

For the SPX starting at 1842, the bulls need less than one point higher, to touch the 1843 handle, and the upside acceleration continues. The bears need to drop below 1835 to accelerate the downside. A move through 1836-1842 is sideways action. The bulls are in charge but markets remain erratic and unstable.

12/29/13; 7:00 PM EST =
12/23/13; 10:00 AM EST = +61; signal line is +38

Thursday, December 26, 2013

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant is bullish as the upside holiday melt-up continues. U.S. markets reopen for trading this morning after the Christmas holiday. UTIL is at 489. The bulls need to push above 493 and further upside in equities is justified. The bears will strive to prevent UTIL 493 and at the same time try to push price under 477 to create negativity. The bulls are cruising along in Santa's sleigh without a care or worry. Bears need to push utilities, copper and retail lower, and volatility higher, to stop the upside market momentum.

For the SPX starting at 1833, at new all-time highs, any positivity in the futures will create another upside acceleration, and S&P futures are +3 a couple hours before the opening bell. The bears need to push under 1828 to accelerate the downside. A move through 1829-1833 is sideways action. Low volume is expected so the bulls will likely keep markets elevated. Equities remain very unstable and erratic.

12/29/13; 7:00 PM EST =
12/23/13; 10:00 AM EST = +61; signal line is +38

Tuesday, December 24, 2013

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long with the bulls cruising towards Christmas. Equity markets close at 1 PM EST. The algo is tracking utilities, copper, volatility and retail with interest. The bulls need UTIL above 492.95 to signal further market upside. The bears need UTIL under 476.89, JJC under 39.92 and/or VIX above 14.20 to firmly stop the market upside. For the SPX starting at 1828, the bulls need 2 points, to touch the 1830 handle, and the upside party continues with an acceleration into the low and mid-1830's. UTIL 492.95 will dictate whether the upside is warranted, or not. The bears need to push under 1823, 5 points lower, to accelerate the downside. Markets remain highly unstable.

12/29/13; 7:00 PM EST =
12/23/13; 10:00 AM EST = +61; signal line is +38

Monday, December 23, 2013

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long as the new holiday-shortened week of trading begins. The pre-scheduled number bumps the algo number up by one tick. UTIL remains between the upper and lower boundaries, VIX remains calm, and copper remains elevated, status quo with the key market directional parameters right now, so markets float sideways to sideways higher. The bulls need UTIL 493.00 to prove that equities deserve to be moving higher from here. If UTIL cannot confirm the move higher, then equities will weaken ahead, however, bears got nothing unless they smash utes or copper, or pump volatility higher. The SPX punched through the 1823-1825 ceiling and ran to near 1829. Since the bears cannot yet weaken one of the parameters, the caution flag is removed. The bulls are driving the bus in firm control. Markets are erratic and unstable and can change on a dime, however.

12/29/13; 7:00 PM EST =
12/23/13; 10:00 AM EST = +61; signal line is +38
12/22/13; 7:00 PM EST = +60; signal line is +38

Sunday, December 22, 2013

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is long to begin the new week of trading. The bulls need UTIL 492.35 and that will light the way for higher equities. The bears need UTIL 476.89, JJC 39.82 and/or VIX above 14.20, any 1 of the 3 would do, to stop the upside market rally. If all 4 parameters remain status quo, markets will float sideways with an upward bias.

For the SPX, starting the week at 1818, the bulls need to touch the 1824 handle and upside acceleration happy time occurs again with the SPX moving to 1830. The bears need to push under 1810 to accelerate the downside. A move through 1811-1823 is sideways action for Monday. S&P futures on Sunday evening indicate a move higher of +5 which would send the SPX higher to tease the 1823-1824 resistance area. Copper is weak in early trading.  The bears need lower utilities, lower copper and/or higher volatility, and for the SPX to drop under 1810, to create the conditions for Keybot to potentially flip short. Therefore, the bulls are comfortably driving the bus but the markets remain very erratic and unstable so the caution flag remains out for another day. Keybot prints one pre-scheduled number tomorrow morning during this holiday-shortened Christmas week.

12/29/13; 7:00 PM EST =
12/23/13; 10:00 AM EST =
12/22/13; 7:00 PM EST = +60; signal line is +38
12/19/13; 10:36 AM EST = +60; signal line is +37

Saturday, December 21, 2013

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long and did not print any numbers during the Friday session. The VIX collapsed at yesterday's opening bell so it was obvious that the bears were folding like a cheap suit. Interestingly, the VIX climbed all day after that and finished at the highs at 13.79 but remaining under the 14.20 bull-bear line in the sand (favoring bulls). The SPX performed the acceleration move and printed in the 1820's. UTIL moved higher closing at 488.34. The bulls need UTIL 492.35 to send the SPX to the 1820-1840 zone. The 4 parameters in the previous missive all remain bullish providing the upside market fuel. The bulls are comfortably driving the bus (algo number 23 points above the signal line) but if the bears create higher volatility and lower utilities, a move to the short side can be on tap in quick order, hence the caution flag remains out. The algo's priority areas and levels of interest can be identified once the Sunday pre-scheduled number prints tomorrow.

12/22/13; 7:00 PM EST =
12/19/13; 10:36 AM EST = +60; signal line is +37

Thursday, December 19, 2013

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long as the market drama continues. VIX came up to tease the 14.20 bull-bear line but remains one nickel on the bull side. Copper is very weak. JJC is at 40.20 and the 39.82 level will usher in market trouble. GTX is causing bullishness above 4807. Ditto UTIL remaining above 473.37.  For next week, the 473.37 level is meaningless and instead, 476.89 is key. Thus, into the Friday close, watch UTIL 477. Any closing print in this neighborhood and under tells you the markets will be weak Monday morning. If UTIL remains above 477, bulls will be happy. All 4 parameters above are bullish; bears need any one or more to cross the levels shown to create market negativity. If any 2 of the 4 parameters turn bearish, and the SPX drops under 1801, and remains under, Keybot will likely flip short.

For the SPX starting at 1810, the bulls need to touch the 1811 handle and an acceleration will occur through the all-time high at 1814 in a heartbeat with price moving to 1820. If UTIL moves above 492.25, the SPX will be moving above 1820. The bears need to push under 1801 to accelerate the downside. A move through 1802-1810 is sideways action. Huge trading volume is expected due to OpEx and the S&P and Nasdaq rebalancing so a wild day may be on tap. The bulls are driving the bus but markets remain erratic and unstable. The imminent turn notation is displayed but if all 4 parameters above remain bullish, the bears got nothing.

12/22/13; 7:00 PM EST =
12/19/13; 10:36 AM EST = +60; signal line is +37
12/19/13; 10:11 AM EST = +46; signal line is +36

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains bullish. GTX moves above 4806 so this creates a support floor for equities and opens the door to higher numbers. The bulls are driving the bus. Watch GTX 4805.75 as the bull-bear line in the sand that will push equities one way or the other. Copper jumps to a higher priority since it is collapsing today. JJC is maintaining above 40. The bull-bear line in the sand that would cause broad market weakness is JJC 39.80 not that far away. If the dollar rises, copper and commodities should leak lower.

12/22/13; 7:00 PM EST =
12/19/13; 10:36 AM EST = +60; signal line is +37
12/19/13; 10:11 AM EST = +46; signal line is +36
12/19/13; 9:39 AM EST = +60; signal line is +36
12/18/13; 3:20 PM EST = +46; signal line is +35

Wednesday, December 18, 2013

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is on the long side. For Thursday, the bulls need either GTX above 4805 and/or UTIL above 492.30 and it will be blue skies above for the broad markets. The bears need to push the VIX back above 14.20 or they got nothing. If GTX and UTIL stay bearish, and VIX stays bullish, markets stumble sideways.

For the SPX starting at 1811, the bulls need any smidge of green in the overnight futures and the upside party continues to immediately test the 1814 all-time intraday high and higher. The bears need to retrace the large 30-point up move to create mojo, a formidable task but not outside the realm of possibility, but instead, the bears will focus on an easier task of keeping commodities and utilities lower while pushing volatility higher to stop the upside market path. The bulls are driving the bus. Watch for a reversal at any time forward since the markets remain erratic and unstable, today's action a case in point. Pay attention to GTX 4805 and VIX 14.20.

12/22/13; 7:00 PM EST =
12/18/13; 3:20 PM EST = +46; signal line is +35

12/18/13; 2:38 PM EST = +32; signal line is +35 but algorithm stays long

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips long this afternoon at SPX 1797. The drop in the VIX is dramatic, losing the bull-bear line at 14.20 creating the big market bounce. The bulls are back in the driver's seat. As long as VIX stays under 14.20, equities should float higher. The algo program gained a smidge on the last trade but the actual trading lost -1.6% with the leveraged inverse ETF (due to the overall flatness of the broad indexes over the period). Keybot exited TWM and entered SSO. As always, stay alert for a whipsaw tomorrow or Friday. For now, the imminent turn status is removed due to the big jump in the SPX but if the VIX moves above 14.20 the imminent turn status would return.

12/22/13; 7:00 PM EST =
12/18/13; 3:20 PM EST = +46; signal line is +35
12/18/13; 2:38 PM EST = +32; signal line is +35 but algorithm stays long
12/10/13; 2:36 PM EST = +46; signal line is +36; go long 1797; (Benchmark SPX for 2013 = +26.0%)(Keybot this trade = +0.3%; Keybot for 2013 = +15.0%)(Actual this trade = -1.6%; Actual for 2013 = +6.4%)
12/18/13; 2:30 PM EST = +46; signal line is +36 but algorithm remains short
12/18/13; 9:00 AM EST = +32; signal line is +36
12/16/13; 9:37 AM EST = +32; signal line is +37
12/15/13; 7:00 PM EST = +16; signal line is +37
12/13/13; 3:59 PM EST = +16; signal line is +39
12/13/13; 2:54 PM EST = +32; signal line is +40
12/13/13; 2:10 PM EST = +16; signal line is +41
12/13/13; 12:33 PM EST = +32; signal line is +42
12/13/13; 11:32 AM EST = +16; signal line is +43
12/13/13; 11:19 AM EST = +32; signal line is +44
12/13/13; 10:14 AM EST = +16; signal line is +44
12/12/13; 9:37 AM EST = +32; signal line is +45
12/11/13; 3:59 PM EST = +46; signal line is +45 but algorithm remains short
12/11/13; 3:11 PM EST = +32; signal line is +45
12/11/13; 2:36 PM EST = +46; signal line is +46
12/11/13; 11:31 AM EST = +32; signal line is +45
12/11/13; 11:21 AM EST = +46; signal line is +45 but algorithm remains short
12/11/13; 9:39 AM EST = +32; signal line is +44
12/11/13; 9:37 AM EST = +46; signal line is +44 but algorithm remains short
12/10/13; 3:59 PM EST = +60; signal line is +43 but algorithm remains short
12/10/13; 1:47 PM EST = +46; signal line is +42 but algorithm remains short
12/10/13; 12:31 PM EST = +32; signal line is +41
12/10/13; 12:21 PM EST = +46; signal line is +41 but algorithm remains short
12/10/13; 11:56 AM EST = +32; signal line is +41; go short 1803; (Benchmark SPX for 2013 = +26.4%)(Keybot this trade = +0.0%; Keybot for 2013 = +14.7%)(Actual this trade = +0.0%; Actual for 2013 = +8.0%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short moving into the all-important Fed decision day. The algo did not print any numbers yesterday and prints a pre-scheduled number in about 3 hours. The algo appears most interested in financials and commodities. Bears need to push XLF under 21 to create market selling. Bulls need to push GTX above 4805 to create market buying. For the SPX starting at 1781, the bulls need to touch the 1787 handle to create an upside acceleration that will pop to 1794 in quick order. The bears need to push under 1777 to accelerate the downside to 1765 in quick order. A move through 1778-1786 is sideways action. If GTX moves above 4805 or VIX under 14.20, either one would do, and the SPX moves above 1787, and stays above, Keybot will likely flip long. If commodities and volatility, respectively, remain bearish, Keybot will likely remain short moving forward.

12/18/13; 9:00 AM EST =
12/16/13; 9:37 AM EST = +32; signal line is +37
12/15/13; 7:00 PM EST = +16; signal line is +37

Monday, December 16, 2013

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short. Despite the up day, the 5 parameters listed in the previous post remain in place, status quo.  GTX moved higher to the 4805.75 bull-bear line in the sand but did not have the juice to move up through, as yet. The VIX is above 16; both the VIX and the SPX were up so one of them is wrong. Bears need XLF under 21. Bulls need GTX above 4805.75.

For the SPX starting at 1787, the bulls need to push above 1792 to accelerate the upside. The bears need to push under 1777.50 to accelerate the downside. A move through 1778-1791 is sideways action. If GTX moves above 4805.75, and the SPX above 1792, and both remain above, Keybot will likely flip long. Markets are erratic and unstable and a rising VIX will increase the market moves up and down day to day and intraday.

12/18/13; 9:00 AM EST =
12/16/13; 9:37 AM EST = +32; signal line is +37
12/15/13; 7:00 PM EST = +16; signal line is +37

Sunday, December 15, 2013

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains bearish to begin the new week of trading. Watch UTIL 473.37, XLF 20.98 and SOX 503.25. All 3 will begin the week on the bull side, and the algo number will likely jump higher after the opening bell, so the bears need to move any one into the bear camp to continue the market downside. Watch GTX 4808 and VIX 14.04. Both are causing bearishness so the bulls need either one to turn bullish to begin an upside market rally party. If all 5 parameters remain in their respective camps, equities will move sideways.

For the SPX starting at 1775, the bulls need to touch the 1781 handle and an upside acceleration will occur. Bears need to push under the strong 1772 support to create a downside acceleration. A move through 1773-1780 is sideways action.

12/22/13; 7:00 PM EST =
12/18/13; 9:00 AM EST =
12/15/13; 7:00 PM EST = +16; signal line is +37
12/13/13; 3:59 PM EST = +16; signal line is +39

Saturday, December 14, 2013

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short through the weekend. UTIL kept bouncing above and below the 477.87 trap-door number and in the final minute of trading, closed 6 pennies under at 477.81. Isn't it amazing how Keybot can identify these numbers before they occur? The picture changes for next week, however, since the UTIL 477.87 number is now meaningless and is replaced by 473.37. Therefore, the market bulls will actually benefit at Monday's opening bell since UTIL will begin the week at 487 about 4 points above the new UTIL 473.37 trap-door number in effect for all of next week

Keybot is now tracking financials and semiconductors as a priority. Key areas of interest and price levels can be identified once the Sunday pre-scheduled number prints. Since UTIL will likely flip to the bull camp at Monday's opening bell, the caution notation remains in the title line, otherwise, it would have been removed. The bears are driving the bus.

12/15/13; 7:00 PM EST =
12/13/13; 3:59 PM EST = +16; signal line is +39
12/13/13; 2:54 PM EST = +32; signal line is +40
12/13/13; 2:10 PM EST = +16; signal line is +41
12/13/13; 12:33 PM EST = +32; signal line is +42
12/13/13; 11:32 AM EST = +16; signal line is +43
12/13/13; 11:19 AM EST = +32; signal line is +44
12/13/13; 10:14 AM EST = +16; signal line is +44

Friday, December 13, 2013

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short as the Friday session is underway. UTIL falls through the 477.87 trap-door so market weakness is expected today--unless the bulls can push UTIL back above 477.87. The longer UTIL stays under 477.87, the chances increase greatly for a strong market flush lower. Bulls must push UTIL above 477.87 immediately to stop potential market mayhem today and instead send equities flat to higher into the closing bell. UTIL 477.87 is the key; watch it closely.

12/15/13; 7:00 PM EST =
12/13/13; 10:14 AM EST = +16; signal line is +44
12/12/13; 9:37 AM EST = +32; signal line is +45

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short.  The algo settles-in after a wild start to the week only printing one number yesterday. Note how UTIL danced above the 478 trap-door danger level all day long. Next week this number is no longer valid and instead 473.37 is in play, a much easier level for bulls to remain above. Thus, even if the 478 trap-door would open today, it would shut again come Monday morning so any negative affects may be muted. Watch to see where UTIL closes in relation to 473.37 today. Bears need either UTIL 477.87, XLF 20.98, JJC 39.70 and/or SOX 503.25 to continue the market downside. Bulls need GTX 4810 and/or VIX 14.03 to stop the equity selling. If all 6 parameters remain status quo, markets will stumble sideways into the weekend.

For the SPX starting at 1776, the bulls need to touch the 1783 handle and an upside acceleration will occur. This is about 7 or 8 handles and lo and behold, S&P futures are +7.4 at this writing about 2-1/2 hours before the opening bell. So the bulls are going to try and run to the 1783 to begin the day to create upside mojo. The bears need to push under 1772.50 to accelerate the downside. A move through 1773-1782 is sideways action.

12/15/13; 7:00 PM EST =
12/12/13; 9:37 AM EST = +32; signal line is +45
12/11/13; 3:59 PM EST = +46; signal line is +45 but algorithm remains short

Wednesday, December 11, 2013

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short as the wild market action rolls along. At the bell, Keybot wants to go long but is held back since internal programming rules will not yet permit the move. If all things remain as is, Keybot will flip long if the SPX moves above 1803 on Thursday, a formidable task that requires a retracement of today's selloff, but, not impossible in these unstable and erratic markets. The algo is now tracking UTIL 477.87, XLF 20.98, GTX 4811 and VIX 14.02. Utilities, financials and commodities are creating market bullishness while volatility creates bearishness, respectively, thus, bulls need to push the VIX under 14.02 while the bears need to meet the UTIL, XLF and GTX thresholds to gain downside fuel. UTIL 477.87 is the trap-door for markets and it opened for a few minutes today but would not remain open. GTX closed at 4812 only one single point in the bull camp.

The SPX begins at 1782, a strong support level so price will either bounce, or die. The bears need to push under 1780, only 2 points lower, to accelerate the downside. The bulls need to retrace today's drop and push the SPX above 1803 to regain their mojo. Since this is a difficult task, the bulls will simply be happy to keep UTIL, XLF and GTX all elevated, while pushing volatility any amount lower, and this will be enough to stop the market downside. Markets remain a coin-toss and this is verified by the algo number and signal line at only one point difference. Note the 2:36 PM EST print today where the numbers were dead even at +46.

12/15/13; 7:00 PM EST =
12/11/13; 3:59 PM EST = +46; signal line is +45 but algorithm remains short
12/11/13; 3:11 PM EST = +32; signal line is +45
12/11/13; 2:36 PM EST = +46; signal line is +46
12/11/13; 11:31 AM EST = +32; signal line is +45
12/11/13; 11:21 AM EST = +46; signal line is +45 but algorithm remains short
12/11/13; 9:39 AM EST = +32; signal line is +44

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short as the Wednesday session is underway. The algo continues an active week printing 2 numbers in the early going. VIX catapults higher well over 14 and GTX drops under 4811 creating market bearishness. The bulls are pumping copper higher to try and stop the market move lower. Utilities drop lower and tease near the market trap-door at UTIL 477.87. Bulls need GTX 4811 and they will encourage the dip buyers to come into the market. Bears need UTIL 477.87 and equities should collapse lower. Bulls will need about 15 or more SPX handles higher from the current 1794 print to hope to regain the upside mojo, thus, for now, the imminent turn status is removed. Markets remain highly unstable so anything can happen up or down.

12/15/13; 7:00 PM EST =
12/11/13; 9:39 AM EST = +32; signal line is +44
12/11/13; 9:37 AM EST = +46; signal line is +44 but algorithm remains short
12/10/13; 3:59 PM EST = +60; signal line is +43 but algorithm remains short

Tuesday, December 10, 2013

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant is short moving into the Wednesday session. The markets are exhibiting more drama than a Shakespearean play. The bulls move GTX above 4811 and VIX below 14 creating market bullishness, but equities fell into the closing bell. The algo wants to flip back to the long side (algo number is above the signal line). There are several internal programming rules that will need to latch to trigger the move, but, in general, if the SPX moves above 1808.50, and stays above, Keybot will likely flip long. The bears need to keep the SPX under 1808.50 while at the same time pushing GTX under 4811 and the VIX back above 14. As if this drama was not enough, the algo is also tracking JJC 39.66 which is causing market bullishness but only by 16 pennies. Bears need JJC under 39.66 to create market negativity so watch copper in overnight trading.

Utilities collapse today which is odd since yields drop as well. UTIL is 482.42 (under the 483 number the bears needed last week but it is meaningless this week) and the bears need 477.87 to create negativity.  This UTIL 477.87 is also the trap-door which would create a large and quick drop in equities if it fails. For the SPX starting at 1803, the bulls need to push above 1808.50 to create an upside acceleration and likely cause the algo to flip long. The bears need to push under 1802 to accelerate the downside. A move through 1803-1808 is sideways action. Bulls have it on a silver platter only needing to push above SPX 1808.50 for Keybot to flip long and the path to the 1820's will begin. The bears must push at least 2 of the following 4 parameters into the bear camp to create downside mojo (all 4 are currently bullish); UTIL 477.87, JJC 39.66, GTX 4811 and VIX 14. The odd market behavior continues. Equities remain erratic and unstable. Wednesday is a very important day.

12/15/13; 7:00 PM EST =
12/10/13; 3:59 PM EST = +60; signal line is +43 but algorithm remains short
12/10/13; 1:47 PM EST = +46; signal line is +42 but algorithm remains short
12/10/13; 12:31 PM EST = +32; signal line is +41

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant flips to the short side at 1803. The market action remains nutty and unstable. VIX moves above 14 and GTX below 4811.05 creating market weakness but both remain on the bull-bear lines in the sand and can continue to go either way. For now, the bears are driving the bus again. Stay alert for a potential whipsaw back to the long side today or tomorrow. The last trade results in a dead flat trade. The algo exits SSO and enters TWM. Markets remain a crap-shoot. Watch VIX 14.00 and GTX 4811. VIX is currently printing 14.08 helping bears but the GTX is sneaking back above 4811 trying to help the bulls. This is very wild market action. The algo has printed 15 numbers already this week. The imminent turn status must remain since markets are very indecisive and erratic.

12/15/13; 7:00 PM EST =
12/10/13; 12:31 PM EST = +32; signal line is +41
12/10/13; 12:21 PM EST = +46; signal line is +41 but algorithm remains short
12/10/13; 11:56 AM EST = +32; signal line is +41; go short 1803; (Benchmark SPX for 2013 = +26.4%)(Keybot this trade = +0.0%; Keybot for 2013 = +14.7%)(Actual this trade = +0.0%; Actual for 2013 = +8.0%)
12/10/13; 11:37 AM EST = +32; signal line is +42 but algorithm remains long
12/10/13; 10:45 AM EST = +46; signal line is +42
12/10/13; 10:07 AM EST = +60; signal line is +41
12/10/13; 9:37 AM EST = +46; signal line is +40
12/9/13; 2:26 PM EST = +46; signal line is +39
12/9/13; 2:14 PM EST = +60; signal line is +39
12/9/13; 1:38 PM EST = +46; signal line is +38
12/9/13; 1:18 PM EST = +60; signal line is +38
12/9/13; 12:35 PM EST = +46; signal line is +37
12/9/13; 11:01 AM EST = +60; signal line is +37
12/9/13; 10:30 AM EST = +46; signal line is +36
12/9/13; 9:46 AM EST = +60; signal line is +35
12/8/13; 7:00 PM EST = +44; signal line is +34
12/6/13; 12:41 PM EST = +44; signal line is +34; go long 1803; (Benchmark SPX for 2013 = +26.4%)(Keybot this trade = -3.3%; Keybot for 2013 = +14.7%)(Actual this trade = -7.1%; Actual for 2013 = +8.0%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long as the algo prints two numbers in the early going today. At the open, the bears push equities lower because the VIX jumps above 14, but alas, the bears fold like a cheap suit as GTX moves above 4811 and then the VIX drops back below 14. Bears need VIX above 14 and/or GTX below 4811 or they got nothing. If both fail, and the SPX prints below 1803.85, and stays below, Keybot will likely flip short. For now the bulls continue steering the ship running over any bear that steps out into the crosswalk. The SPX dropped under 1806 and accelerated lower to the 1803 handle but the jump in commodities and lower volatility send markets higher.

12/15/13; 7:00 PM EST =
12/10/13; 10:07 AM EST = +60; signal line is +41
12/10/13; 9:37 AM EST = +46; signal line is +40
12/9/13; 2:26 PM EST = +46; signal line is +39

Monday, December 9, 2013

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long moving into the Tuesday session. The algo has a wild start to the week printing 8 numbers today. The bulls remain in the drivers seat and need higher utilities and commodities, UTIL 492.05 and GTX 4811, respectively, to push markets higher. The bears need lower copper and higher volatility, JJC 39.65 and VIX 14, respectively, to push markets lower. If all 4 parameters remain status quo, equities will stumble sideways. If either JJC moves below 39.65 or VIX above 14, and the SPX moves under 1806, and stays under, Keybot will likely flip short. This is a very easy threshold to cross so stay alert during the trading hours ahead; the imminent turn status is very pertinent; Tuesday may be an important market day.

For the SPX starting at 1808, the bulls need to push up through 1811.50 and an upside acceleration will occur to immediately test the 1814 all-time high which will likely give way with new highs printing and the SPX moving to the 1820's. The bears need to push under 1806, only 2 points lower, and the downside will accelerate with a drop back below 1800 likely in short order. A move through 1807-1811 is sideways action.

12/15/13; 7:00 PM EST =
12/9/13; 2:26 PM EST = +46; signal line is +39
12/9/13; 2:14 PM EST = +60; signal line is +39
12/9/13; 1:38 PM EST = +46; signal line is +38
12/9/13; 1:18 PM EST = +60; signal line is +38
12/9/13; 12:35 PM EST = +46; signal line is +37

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long as the algo prints 3 more numbers starting off an active week of action. VIX keeps oscillating above and below 14 and spiked above, helping bears, a few minutes ago. Watch to see if VIX stays above 14, or not. GTX keeps teasing 4811 but remains on the bull side. JJC is only a penny away from the 39.65 bull-bear danger line. If GTX fails 4811 and/or JJC loses 39.65, and the SPX drops about 20 handles, Keybot will likely flip short. Therefore, even if the algo wants to go short today, if the algo number slips under the signal line number, it probably will not since the internal programming rules will likely not latch properly. The algo tracks highs and lows intraday and from the previous session. Thus, Keybot may place itself into position to take out the current intraday low at 1806.21, tomorrow.

Lots of drama is on tap. Markets remain unstable. Bulls need to push VIX back under 14 to keep the upside market party alive. Bears need GTX 4811 and/or JJC 39.65 to develop selling in the markets. Current print on VIX is 14.03 in the bear camp, causing market negativity, by 3 pennies.

12/15/13; 7:00 PM EST =
12/9/13; 12:35 PM EST = +46; signal line is +37
12/9/13; 11:01 AM EST = +60; signal line is +37
12/9/13; 10:30 AM EST = +46; signal line is +36
12/9/13; 9:46 AM EST = +60; signal line is +35

STOCK MARKET BULLISH - -LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long as the new week of trading begins and the algo prints a number shortly after the opening bell. Copper was weak overnight until before the opening bell when it catches a bid creating market buoyancy and the SPX is now considering a test of the all-time high at 1814. Watch JJC 39.67, GTX 4811, VIX 14 and UTIL 492.10. Copper, commodities and volatility are all in the bull camp, hence, the markets float higher. Utilities tumble lower today but they simply remain status quo bearish not offering any further market negativity.

GTX keeps teasing 4811 this morning. Bears need sub 4811 to cap the equity upside and weaken the markets. Bears are also teasing VIX 14 and need to move above to start the market selling. Ditto JJC 39.67. Bears need sub 39.67 to initiate market selling. This behavior illustrates the continuing market indecision. Thus, the bulls are pushing higher but the broad indexes remain very much a coin-flip. Conceivably, the bears could cause strong selling if they reverse JJC, GTX and VIX which are all dancing on the bull-bear lines in the sand. Bulls will receive further upside juice with UTIL 492.10. The week starts off with lots of drama and copper, commodities and volatility are steering the market ship forward. Watch JJC 39.67, VIX 14 and GTX 4811 as the bull-bear lines in the sand that will dictate market direction (all 3 are currently causing market bullishness). GTX is at 4812 clinging on to the bull side with one fingernail.

12/15/13; 7:00 PM EST =
12/9/13; 9:46 AM EST = +60; signal line is +35
12/8/13; 7:00 PM EST = +44; signal line is +34

Sunday, December 8, 2013

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant is bullish moving into the new week of trading. Equities remain a toss-up moving forward. The bulls need UTIL 491.25 and/or JJC 39.68 to verify further upside and the SPX moving to new all-time highs. The bears need VIX 13.95 and/or GTX 4810 to restart the market downside. If all 4 parameters remain in their respective camps, then equities move sideways. If the VIX moves above 13.95 and/or GTX loses 4810, and the SPX drops under 1789, and stays below, Keybot will likely flip short. Watch copper trading overnight since copper and commodities generally move together and strong copper is a big plus for the bulls while weak copper will help the bears.

For the SPX today starting at 1805, the bulls need only one point higher, to push up through 1806, and the upside acceleration will continue testing 1808-1809 quickly then moving up to the 1814 all-time high. Watch the overnight futures. Any hint of green and bulls will be happy campers come tomorrow morning. The bears need to reverse much of Friday's move pushing under 1789 to accelerate a move lower. A move through 1790-1805 is sideways action. Markets remain highly unstable. Exercise caution. Keybot does not print any pre-scheduled numbers this week.

12/15/13; 7:00 PM EST =
12/8/13; 7:00 PM EST = +44; signal line is +34
12/6/13; 12:41 PM EST = +44; signal line is +34; go long 1803; (Benchmark SPX for 2013 = +26.4%)(Keybot this trade = -3.3%; Keybot for 2013 = +14.7%)(Actual this trade = -7.1%; Actual for 2013 = +8.0%)

Saturday, December 7, 2013

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long through the weekend. Monday will be interesting to see if a whipsaw occurs, or, price marching to new all-time highs. Bulls need higher utilities and/or higher copper to create more all-time highs. Bears need higher volatility and/or lower commodities to reverse the Friday spurt. The price levels of interest can be identified once Keybot prints the pre-scheduled Sunday number tomorrow. Markets remain erratic, unstable and a coin-flip.

12/8/13; 7:00 PM EST =
12/6/13; 12:41 PM EST = +44; signal line is +34; go long 1803; (Benchmark SPX for 2013 = +26.4%)(Keybot this trade = -3.3%; Keybot for 2013 = +14.7%)(Actual this trade = -7.1%; Actual for 2013 = +8.0%)

Friday, December 6, 2013

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant flips to the long side at SPX 1803. Volatility collapsed catapulting the SPX higher. VIX is under 13.95 causing market bullishness. The near one-month of market drama finally gives way to a move to the upside. The algo exits SDS and enters SSO. The last trade lost about -3% for the algorithm program and -7% for the actual trading. The imminent turn status remains since the markets can very well whipsaw back to the bear side either today or Monday. Markets remain erratic and unstable but the bulls are driving the bus now. Bears need VIX above 13.95.  Bulls need either JJC above 39.68 and/or UTIL above 491.25 to gain more upside fuel. If you do not see copper and utilities moving higher it will be a tell that the upside may be limited moving forward.

12/8/13; 7:00 PM EST =
12/6/13; 12:41 PM EST = +44; signal line is +34; go long 1803; (Benchmark SPX for 2013 = +26.4%)(Keybot this trade = -3.3%; Keybot for 2013 = +14.7%)(Actual this trade = -7.1%; Actual for 2013 = +8.0%)
12/6/13; 11:52 AM EST = +44; signal line is +33 but algorithm remains short
12/6/13; 10:49 AM EST = +30; signal line is +33
12/6/13; 10:00 AM EST = +44; signal line is +33 but algorithm remains short
12/6/13; 9:46 AM EST = +44; signal line is +33 but algorithm remains short
12/6/13; 9:00 AM EST = +30; signal line is +33
12/3/13; 1:22 PM EST = +30; signal line is +33
12/2/13; 3:32 PM EST = +16; signal line is +34
12/2/13; 11:48 AM EST = +30; signal line is +34
12/2/13; 9:48 AM EST = +16; signal line is +35
12/1/13; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +30; signal line is +35
11/27/13; 10:00 AM EST = +30; signal line is +36
11/26/13; 10:20 AM EST = +30; signal line is +36
11/26/13; 10:00 AM EST = +46; signal line is +37 but algorithm remains short
11/26/13; 9:00 AM EST = +46; signal line is +37 but algorithm remains short
11/25/13; 9:37 AM EST = +46; signal line is +37 but algorithm remains short
11/24/13; 7:00 PM EST = +30; signal line is +37
11/21/13; 9:39 AM EST = +30; signal line is +39
11/20/13; 2:43 AM EST = +14; signal line is +39
11/20/13; 10:43 AM EST = +30; signal line is +40
11/20/13; 10:00 AM EST = +46; signal line is +40 but algorithm remains short
11/19/13; 1:01 PM EST = +30; signal line is +41
11/19/13; 12:41 PM EST = +46; signal line is +41 but algorithm remains short
11/19/13; 11:26 AM EST = +30; signal line is +42
11/18/13; 9:37 AM EST = +46; signal line is +42 but algorithm remains short
11/17/13; 7:00 PM EST = +30; signal line is +42
11/10/13; 7:00 PM EST = +30; signal line is +42
11/8/13; 10:00 AM EST = +30; signal line is +43
11/8/13; 9:00 AM EST = +30; signal line is +43
11/7/13; 3:32 PM EST = +30; signal line is +44
11/7/13; 2:40 PM EST = +46; signal line is +44 but algorithm remains short
11/7/13; 1:51 PM EST = +30; signal line is +45
11/6/13; 9:54 AM EST = +46; signal line is +47
11/5/13; 2:02 PM EST = +30; signal line is +47
11/5/13; 10:25 AM EST = +46; signal line is +48
11/5/13; 9:37 AM EST = +30; signal line is +48
11/4/13; 12:52 PM EST = +46; signal line is +49
11/4/13; 9:49 AM EST = +30; signal line is +50
11/4/13; 9:37 AM EST = +46; signal line is +52
11/3/13; 7:00 PM EST = +46; signal line is +53
10/31/13; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +46; signal line is +54
10/30/13; 1:17 PM EST = +46; signal line is +54
10/30/13; 10:35 AM EST = +62; signal line is +56 but algorithm remains short
10/30/13; 10:24 AM EST = +46; signal line is +56
10/30/13; 10:10 AM EST = +62; signal line is +57 but algorithm remains short
10/29/13; 2:05 PM EST = +46; signal line is +56
10/29/13; 1:33 PM EST = +30; signal line is +57
10/29/13; 10:43 AM EST = +46; signal line is +58
10/29/13; 10:26 AM EST = +62; signal line is +57 but algorithm remains short
10/29/13; 10:00 AM EST = +46; signal line is +57
10/29/13; 9:37 AM EST = +48; signal line is +57
10/28/13; 10:31 AM EST = +32; signal line is +57
10/27/13; 7:00 PM EST = +48; signal line is +58
10/25/13; 10:00 AM EST = +48; signal line is +58
10/23/13; 11:29 AM EST = +48; signal line is +59
10/23/13; 10:20 AM EST = +32; signal line is +59
10/23/13; 9:51 AM EST = +48; signal line is +60; go short 1746; (Benchmark SPX for 2013 = +22.4%)(Keybot this trade = +3.9%; Keybot for 2013 = +18.0%)(Actual this trade = +7.8%; Actual for 2013 = +15.1%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short as the intense market action continues. The bulls spike markets higher today. UTIL tags the 491.25 number but retreats. JJC tags 39.68 but retreats. VIX drops under 13.95 supplying bull fuel, but moves back above 13.95, now at 14.00, favoring bears. How interesting it is that the price action is tagging all three areas and levels Keybot identified ahead of time? The algo was a hair away from flipping long due to the lower volatility but did not trigger. Watch VIX 13.95; bulls need lower volatility to be able to get the model to flip long. JJC is now at 39.53 and needs to move above 39.68+ to help bulls. UTIL needs to move above 491.25 to help bulls. Markets are a coin-flip. Watch VIX 13.95 and the current SPX HOD at 1802.36; these are the 2 key elements in real-time right now.

12/8/13; 7:00 PM EST =
12/6/13; 10:49 AM EST = +30; signal line is +33
12/6/13; 10:00 AM EST = +44; signal line is +33 but algorithm remains short
12/6/13; 9:46 AM EST = +44; signal line is +33 but algorithm remains short
12/6/13; 9:00 AM EST = +30; signal line is +33
12/3/13; 1:22 PM EST = +30; signal line is +33

Thursday, December 5, 2013

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short and 2 days pass with the algo idling and not printing any numbers. 2 pre-scheduled numbers print tomorrow morning. The algo is prioritizing a similar theme. Bears need GTX 4809, UTIL 482.94 and/or XLF 20.90. Note that UTIL keeps drifting lower to tease the 482.94 trap-door trigger for markets but the bulls keep finding a way to prevent the collapse.  Bulls need JJC 39.67 and/or UTIL 491.25 and if 1 of these 2 turn bullish, and the SPX prints above 1793, and stays above, Keybot will likely flip long. Therefore, copper trading overnight is important. In addition, the lower UTIL number to watch next week will be 477.87 instead of the 482.94, a much easier level for bulls to maintain. Into the closing bell, watch to see how UTIL moves. Any print under UTIL 480 is bearish for markets next week but if UTIL heads up towards 490+, this hints that the bulls will be in good shape for the days ahead. Obviously, the 10-year yield will move off the Monthly Jobs Report number and a jump higher in yields will send utilities plummeting and a drop in yields will send utes higher. The retail sector is weakening and the algo is monitoring RTH 58.90 so keep that in mind should markets deteriorate.

For the SPX, starting at 1785, the bulls need to push above 1793, and it will be a big bull party into the weekend with SPX heading towards 1800. The bears need to push under 1783 and the downside will accelerate to test the 1778-ish level quickly where price will either bounce, or die. A move through 1784-1792 is sideways action. The 3 weeks of sideways action through SPX 1782-1814 may all come to a head tomorrow. A decision is needed. Markets remain erratic and unstable.

12/8/13; 7:00 PM EST =
12/6/13; 10:00 AM EST =
12/6/13; 9:00 AM EST =
12/3/13; 1:22 PM EST = +30; signal line is +33
12/2/13; 3:32 PM EST = +16; signal line is +34

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short and idles through the Wednesday session without printing any numbers. The algo is currently tracking copper, JJC 39.67, commodities, GTX 4809, utilities, UTIL 483 and 491, volatility, VIX 13.95 and financials, XLF 20.90. The Thursday session will begin with JJC causing bearishness, GTX causing bullishness, UTIL 483 causing bullishness, UTIL 491 causing bearishness, VIX causing bearishness and XLF causing bullishness. Thus, bulls need JJC 39.67 (only 23 cents away), VIX 13.95 and/or UTIL 491, and it will be smooth sailing higher for the stock market. If 1 of these 3 turn bullish, and the SPX prints above 1800 and stays above, Keybot will likely flip long. The bears need to push GTX under 4809, UTIL under 483 and/or XLF under 20.90 to create a strong down leg in equities.

For the SPX starting at 1793, the bulls need to push above 1800 to accelerate the upside. The bears need to push under 1779 to accelerate the downside. A move through 1780-1799 is sideways action. S&P futures are flat 4 hours before the opening bell. Markets remain a coin-flip but will probably commit to a firm direction at any time (the SPX is sideways through 1780-1810 for the last 3 weeks), and the direction will be identified by the parameters above. Bulls need higher copper. Bears need lower commodities. Copper and commodities are weak in early trading. Watch JJC 39.67 and GTX 4809 closely.

12/6/13; 9:00 AM EST =
12/3/13; 1:22 PM EST = +30; signal line is +33
12/2/13; 3:32 PM EST = +16; signal line is +34

Tuesday, December 3, 2013

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short as the market drama continues. The markets remain a coin-flip as evidenced by the algo number only 3 ticks from the signal line. Bulls pushed commodities higher to keep markets elevated. Watch GTX 4808.90, now at 4812.20, creating market bullishness. For Wednesday, the bulls need UTIL above 491.20 and/or VIX below 13.94, and the SPX will begin moving higher again. If 1 of these 2 turn bullish, and the SPX moves above 1800, and stays above, Keybot will likely flip long. The bears need GTX under 4808.90, UTIL under 482.94 and/or XLF under 20.91 to lock in more downside.

For the SPX starting at 1795, the bulls need to move above 1800 to accelerate the upside. The bears need to push under 1788 to accelerate the downside. A move through 1789-1799 is sideways action. GTX 4808.90, VIX 13.94, UTIL 491.20 and 482.94, XLF 20.91 and SPX 1800 and 1788, will dictate market direction forward. The imminent turn notation is back in the title line. Markets continue dancing on a knife edge and must decide on a firm direction. Watch GTX 4808.90 at the opening bell.

12/6/13; 9:00 AM EST =
12/3/13; 1:22 PM EST = +30; signal line is +33
12/2/13; 3:32 PM EST = +16; signal line is +34

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short. The market oddness continues with the algo weakening but equities remaining elevated. Market bears are a hair away from creating strong downside if UTIL 482.94 fails. UTIL begins at 485.15 only 2 points away from opening the trap-door. The market weakness yesterday was created with the VIX moving above 13.94 and this bull-bear danger line remains in play. Equities will leak lower as long as the VIX stays above 13.94, now at 14.23. The bulls need either UTIL 491.20, VIX 13.94 and/or GTX 4805, any one of these will do, and equities will recover and move higher again. The bears need UTIL 482.94 and all Hades will likely break loose for markets with a substantial drop lower.

For the SPX starting at 1801, the bulls need to push above 1810 and that will start the trek to the 1820's. The bears need to push only a couple points lower, under 1799, to accelerate the downside. S&P futures are -4.4 at this writing 3-1/2 hours before the opening bell. A move through 1800-1809 is sideways action for Tuesday trading. The imminent turn notation is temporarily removed from the title line since the algo number is now 18 points under the signal line, however, if utes, volatility and/or commodities turn bullish, as described above, consider the imminent turn notation to be back in play for the bulls. The bears have markets on a silver platter only needing to send UTIL under 482.94 to begin more extensive downside selling.

12/6/13; 9:00 AM EST =
12/2/13; 3:32 PM EST = +16; signal line is +34
12/2/13; 11:48 AM EST = +30; signal line is +34

Monday, December 2, 2013

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short and the odd market behavior continues. The algo weakened this morning but the stock market refuses to die and remains buoyant. Watch VIX 13.94 as the bull-bear line in the sand. Volatility dances above and below. Bears need VIX above 13.94.  Bulls need VIX under 13.94. UTIL remains in the middle of the happy bear level at 483 and happy bull level at 491 unable to commit. Copper is weak. GTX gains priority in the hierarchy. Watch GTX 4806, now at 4772 causing market negativity. Bulls would receive upside fuel with GTX 4806 and/or UTIL 491. If one of these two turn bullish, and the SPX moves above 1814, and stays above, Keybot will likely flip long. Bears need VIX above 13.94 and UTIL under 483 for equities to start dropping in earnest. The beat goes on. 

12/6/13; 9:00 AM EST =
12/2/13; 11:48 AM EST = +30; signal line is +34
12/2/13; 9:48 AM EST = +16; signal line is +35
12/1/13; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +30; signal line is +35

Sunday, December 1, 2013

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant is short moving into the new week of trading. Markets remain a crap shoot for nearly 3 weeks. The broad indexes drift higher but have not received the much needed confirmation energy from utilities, copper and/or commodities. Thus, bulls need UTIL 490.63 and/or JJC 39.75 to confirm the move to the SPX 1820's. Bears will take control with either UTIL 482.94 and/or VIX 13.89. So bulls need higher utilities and copper while bears need lower utilities and higher volatility. If the 4 parameters above remain in their respective camps, markets move sideways.

For the SPX starting at 1806, the bulls need to touch the 1814 handle and an acceleration to the 1820's will occur in quick order. The bears need to push under 1804, only 2 points lower, to accelerate the downside. A move through 1805-1813 is sideways action. S&P futures in early Sunday evening action are +2. Copper is flat. The algo continues to favor the bears despite the markets floating higher each day. If UTIL moves above 490.63 or JJC above 39.75, and the SPX above 1814, and stay above, Keybot will likely flip long.  If UTIL loses 482.94, this will have a trap-door affect on markets and the broad indexes should deteriorate in quick order. If UTIL moves under 483 and the VIX moves above 13.89, the markets will be selling off rapidly.  Watch UTIL 490.63, UTIL 482.94, JJC 39.75, VIX 13.89 and SPX 1814 and 1804 to determine market direction. Keybot prints 2 pre-scheduled numbers this week, both of them Friday morning. Markets remain erratic and unstable.

12/8/13; 7:00 PM EST =
12/6/13; 10:00 AM EST =
12/6/13; 9:00 AM EST =
12/1/13; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +30; signal line is +35
11/27/13; 10:00 AM EST = +30; signal line is +36