SPX Charts Show the Effects of Prior Maximum and Minimum Keybot the Quant Algo Numbers

The +81 algo number is an overbot indication. At its heart, the Keybot the Quant algorithm is an oscillator. That is a fancy word that simply means an indicator that fluctuates above and below a zero line which represents neutral with no advantage to bulls or bears. Keybot has a maximum upside possible of +100 and minimum possible of -100. Thus, just like the RSI, stochastics or money flow chart indicators, all three are oscillators, an overbot condition exists at +70 to +100 (markets are topping out) and oversold conditions at -70 to -100 (markets are bottoming) where market inflection points typically occur.

Keybot came on line in the middle of the financial crisis in late 2008/2009 so -100 has printed for the algo which identified an absolute minimum number and grossly oversold market that has no where to go but up. These low readings in June 2010 lead to a strong pop and then also the -100 occurs for the algo number on 7/16/10 which identified the significant market low. Similarly, -88 oversold reading were triggering in August 2011 and also at the start of October 2011 identifying significant market lows. The SPX experienced strong powerful bounces from all the lows. Focus on the short term and the low readings led to about 100 to 200 upside SPX handles in only about one-month's time.

The algo number has not ventured above +80 in its history until the last couple months. Keybot remains relatively young for a program only on line for 5-1/2 years thus far. But referencing the recent VST peaks (red circles), all correspond to market tops with +79 on 4/24/14, +81 on 5/12/14 and +80 on 5/27/14. The algo number is currently +81 in overbot territory. Directly correlating to the mid-May pull back, that +81 led to a drop from 1905 to 1865 in three days time, 40 handles, -2.1%. The other two incidents create 35 and paltry 10-point pull backs. So minor blips but the overbot levels at +79 and higher do lead to pull backs in the markets as the chart shows. At +81, what do you think will happen going forward?

If the oversold readings from 2010 and 2011 are used as a mirror image to help project what the overbot levels may bring, the SPX may drop from 100 to 200 handles to correct the current overbot +81 reading. Mixing all outcomes together the expectation would be at least a 30 or 40 SPX point sell off and  perhaps over 100 points. Keybot is a robot, however, so it simply motors along calculating 1's and 0's doing its thing completely unaffected by human emotion which accounts for its success. Remember, Keybot is not designed to call tops and bottoms but instead the algo provides the smoothest trading ride through the year with the highest gains possible while assuming the lowest possible risk. Keybot's data is very useful in providing insight into makret direction and forecasting, however, as the above analysis shows.

The overbot level at +81 is very lofty and likely will lead to a 30 to 100 SPX handle sell off. Keybot will likely miss the first 20 handles since it is not designed to tag the tops. For now, the algo remains long so this is the market direction. The market bears need weaker retail stocks, weaker copper and higher volatility to create significant downside. The bulls continue to drive the bus. The easiest way to sum it all up is to make sure you are standing at the exit door. Keep one foot outside and one foot inside. The run to the exits may become quite ugly. If you stand by the exit you can be first out the door plus you can still hear and enjoy the band playing what is likely the swan song.

If the markets sell off, watch to see if Keybot flips short; that will be the confirmation that the bears got game. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long through the weekend moving into the new week of trading. The bulls are riding the bears slapping them around left and right. Keybot is in idle mode only printing the pre-scheduled numbers in the back half of last week. The algo continues to surprise by ticking up one more tick to +81 with the algo number. The loftiness and overbot nature of this number cannot be understated. The algo is at levels that are rarely seen only once or twice per year at most. Thus, a multi-month top may be in the offing, however, Keybot only sees 1's and 0's and for now the band plays on as the Fed easy money continues flowing like water pumping the stock market higher.

Looking at the algorithm internals, the retail sector appears to be the best chance for bears to reverse the market upside. Volatility would wreak havoc on markets if the VIX popped higher a couple bucks, over VIX 13.47, but the main parameter to watch is RTH 59.04. The RTH begins at 59.47 forty-three cents on the bull side creating higher equity markets. The bears need to push RTH under 59.04 or they got nothing. Under 59.04 and you will know that extended downside market selling is on tap. So listen for any news concerning retailers since each news snippet will send RTH up or down.

Of particular interest is the West Coast port slowdown where the unions and shipping companies must agree on a contract by Monday evening. Obviously, with back-to-school supplies already en route to stores, and holiday shipments following close behind, the strike, or resolution, will be key in determining retail, and subsequently, overall equity market direction. During the Monday session it will likely become apparent if the two sides will kiss and make up, or perhaps extend the deadline and keep talking, or storm out of the room calling each others' momma's bad names. RTH will respond.

For the SPX starting at 1961, the bulls need to push up through 1961.50 less than one point higher, and bingo, the upside orgy continues with a several handle acceleration occurring which tests the all-time highs in the upper 1960's. Therefore, watch the overnight S&P futures since any positivity will result in the bullish path described and bulls will be popping the champagne corks for breakfast.

The bears need to push the SPX under 1952, about nine points lower, to regain their mojo which will immediately drop price lower to test the strong 1949 support for a bounce or die decision. A move through 1953-1961 is sideways action for Monday. Keybot prints two pre-scheduled numbers this week; one on Monday evening after the closing bell due to the EOM, EOQ2 and EOH1, and the other on Thursday morning before the opening. The trading week is a four-day holiday shortened week with the markets closed on Friday for the Independence Day July 4th holiday.

7/6/14; 7:00 PM EST =

7/3/14; 9:00 AM EST =

6/30/14; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

6/29/14; 7:00 PM EST = +81; signal line is +63

6/27/14; 10:00 AM EST = +81; signal line is +62

6/24/14; 10:00 AM EST = +80; signal line is +62

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long and did not print any numbers in the Thursday session. The bears simply do not have the juice but did manage to push the retail stocks lower. RTH dropped to tease near the 59.04 failure line but then recovered. The algo is tracking RTH 59.04 as the best case for bears to introduce market negativity. As long as RTH remains above 59.04, now at 59.35, the bulls are cruising without any care or concern.

For the SPX starting at 1957, the bulls need to punch up through the strong 1960 resistance and an acceleration higher to the all-time highs will occur into the weekend. The bears need to push under 1945 to accelerate the downside. A move through 1946-1959 is sideways action to end the week. S&P futures are -1, whoops, check that, now -4 taking a dip lower over the last few minutes.The weakness in equities is meaningless unless the bears slap retail stocks lower and RTH drops under 59-ish. Bulls are fine without worry if RTH stays above 59-ish. Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number this morning at 10 AM. 

6/29/14; 7:00 PM EST =

6/27/14; 10:00 AM EST =

6/24/14; 10:00 AM EST = +80; signal line is +62

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long and did not print any numbers today. The market bears are weak since they cannot push copper or the retail stocks lower and at the same time cannot push volatility higher. Three strikes and you're out to use a baseball metaphor. The bulls have an easy time pushing the SPX higher and tests the 1956, 1958 and 1960 resistance levels spending the night at 1960 to decide either to pivot higher to the all-time highs, or, pivot lower to 1949. Bounce or die from 1960.

Bears need either JJC under 37.65, RTH under 59.04 and/or VIX above 13.50 to create downside pressure in stocks. Without at least one of these, the bears got nothing and equities will float along sideways with an upward bias. For the SPX starting at 1960 for Thursday, the bulls need only one point, to touch the 1961 handle and boom, price will be running higher to the all-time highs. Watch the S&P futures overnight to see if the bulls can muster one point, or not. The bears need to push the SPX under 1948 to accelerate the downside. The 1948-1949 level is strong support. A move through 1949-1960 is sideways action. The bulls continue to cruise down the road without a care in the world honking at the pretty girls and waving to the children.

6/29/14; 7:00 PM EST =

6/27/14; 10:00 AM EST =

6/24/14; 10:00 AM EST = +80; signal line is +62

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long. Equities sell off on Tuesday but the algo motors along without printing any numbers. The market bears need either JJC 37.65 or RTH 59.03, otherwise, they got nothing. For the SPX starting at 1950, the bulls need to push up through 1968 to regain their mojo, a formidable task, so instead the bulls will simply keep copper and the retail sector elevated to frustrate the bears. The bears need to push SPX under 1948 to accelerate the downside and continue the path lower. A move through 1949-1967 is sideways action for Wednesday. S&P futures are -4. The caution and/or imminent turn warnings will likely not appear in the title line unless copper and the retail sectors weaken.

6/27/14; 10:00 AM EST =

6/24/14; 10:00 AM EST = +80; signal line is +62

6/22/14; 7:00 PM EST = +79; signal line is +62

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long cruising higher without concern. Just when it was mentioned previously that the algo number would likely not move higher, it squeezes out one more tick to print an even, and elevated, +80. The algo is an oscillator at its heart and this is what enables it to navigate both the bull and bear markets seamlessly. As with all oscillators, like the RSI, stochastics and money flow indicators on a stock chart, a +70 to +80 reading is a move into overbot conditions. Keybot's maximum and minimum readings are +100 and -100, respectively, and looking at all the parameters the algo has to deal with, this +80 reading does appear to be an extremely toppy number. That said, the bears are snoozing in the den and do not show any sign of strength. The SPX touches 1964 and popped to near 1968. The beat goes on.

6/27/14; 10:00 AM EST =

6/24/14; 10:00 AM EST = +80; signal line is +62

6/22/14; 7:00 PM EST = +79; signal line is +62

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long as the algo does not print any numbers in the sleepy Monday session. The bulls are in full control. The algo is rating copper as the bears likely best chance to turn the tables. Market bears need JJC under 37.65 to gather downside strength. Keybot is also tracking RTH 59.03 and GTX 5025. All three parameters are firmly bullish creating upside fuel and allowing equities to remain elevated.

For the SPX starting at 1963, and surprisingly staying within that tight sideways range highlighted previously, the bulls only need to touch the 1964 handle and the upside will accelerate to 1970. The bears need to push under 1959 to accelerate the downside so the same set up as the prior day. A move through 1960-1963 is sideways action and again, unlikely to occur since it is such a tight range. Bulls win at 1964 and higher. Bears win at 1959 and lower. S&P futures are -2. Bears need lower copper, retail and/or commodities, otherwise, they got nothing. Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number in about an hour.

6/27/14; 10:00 AM EST =

6/24/14; 10:00 AM EST =

6/22/14; 7:00 PM EST = +79; signal line is +62

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long moving into the new week of trading. The bears were bludgeoned last week with the SPX and Dow running higher for six consecutive days. Copper is a bear killer. The algo is tracking both copper and retail as the two major influences on market direction currently. The bulls are cruising with JJC above 37.60 and RTH above 59.00. The bullish strength is also evident with the +79 algo number which is an overbot condition for the algorithm. The algo number is likely pegged as high as it will go so the question would be how far the broad indexes can move higher before the pending turnaround. Bears got absolutely nothing without sending the copper and retail sectors lower.

For the SPX starting at 1963, ending near the highs again, the bulls only need one point, to touch the 1964 handle, and the upside orgy will continue with a several handle acceleration to 1970. The bears need to push under 1959 to accelerate the downside. A move through 1960-1963 is sideways action for Monday and since it is such a tight range a winner will likely be decided. Watch the overnight futures to see if the bulls are providing that one point of oomph in the S&P's, or not. Also watch to see how copper is trading which will set the tone.

The bulls are driving the bus with their feet up on the dash. The caution and/or imminent turn status will return to the title line above if copper and/or retail weakens. Keybot prints two pre-scheduled numbers this week one on Tuesday and the other on Friday. The month of June ends in six trading days. June began at 1923.57 about 40 points lower.

6/30/14; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

6/29/14; 7:00 PM EST =

6/27/14; 10:00 AM EST =

6/24/14; 10:00 AM EST =

6/22/14; 7:00 PM EST = +79; signal line is +62

6/20/14; 9:36 AM EST = +79; signal line is +62

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long through the weekend. The thrust higher with copper is a dagger in the heart of the bears. The bears will need to send copper and the retail sector lower to stop the market upside. For now, the bulls are cruising without worry or concern. The areas and levels of most interest to the algo can be identified once the Sunday pre-scheduled number prints tomorrow.

6/22/14; 7:00 PM EST =

6/20/14; 9:36 AM EST = +79; signal line is +62

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long as the bulls continue to slap the bears around. Copper explodes +1.6% higher with JJC leaping to 38, well above the 37.60 bull-bear line in the sand, mortally stabbing the bears. Bears got nothing but pain unless they push JJC back under 37.60.

The SPX sneaks out the one point of upside mentioned in the prior post so an acceleration occurs to print a new all-time intraday high at 1963.91. The algo is now pushed into the ovebot ceiling again with a lofty +79 reading. As with other oscillator-type indicators, the overbot conditions confirm the bullish fun but at the same time warn that downside is likely around the corner. For now, the bulls are driving the party bus into the weekend without a care or worry. Watch copper.

6/22/14; 7:00 PM EST =

6/20/14; 9:36 AM EST = +79; signal line is +62

6/17/14; 9:00 AM EST = +63; signal line is +61

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long as another day goes by without the algo printing any numbers. The market bears are holding the line with JJC 37.60 keeping the equity markets in check. Bulls need JJC above 37.60 and the SPX is on its way to 1980. Bears need to keep JJC under 37.60 and a lid is placed on any further market upside.

For the SPX for Friday starting at 1959 another all-time high, the bulls need to touch the 1960 handle, less than one point higher, and an upside acceleration will occur to the mid and upper 1960's. Watch the overnight futures to see if the bulls can muster up one point to continue the stock market rally. The bears need to push under 1952 to accelerate the downside. A move through 1953-1959 is sideways action. Markets appear as if they are in suspended animation. Copper controls broad market direction so monitor copper direction in the morning before the opening bell. The bulls continue driving the bus and JJC 37.60 determines if the fun ride higher continues, or, if the bus veers off into a ditch.

6/22/14; 7:00 PM EST =

6/17/14; 9:00 AM EST = +63; signal line is +61

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long and did not print any numbers yesterday during the Fed circus. The algo number remains only two ticks from the signal line indicating an ongoing bull-bear struggle but the bulls clearly slapped the bears in the face. The retail sector exploded higher while volatility has collapsed. The VIX drops to a 7-1/2 year low at 10.61. Everyone is long and no one wants to short the market.

The bulls have one fly in the ointment as identified by Keybot--copper. The bulls need higher copper to prove that the upside is the preferred direction forward. Watch JJC 37.60 (now at 37.37 in the bear camp causing market negativity). If JJC moves above 37.60, the SPX is likely heading to 1980. Copper is the key market directional driver currently. Basically, as copper goes, so goes the market. Copper is slightly weaker in early trading.

For the SPX starting at a new all-time high at 1957, the bulls need to touch the 1958 handle, only one-point higher, and another upside acceleration of several points will occur. The bears need to push under 1940 to accelerate the downside. A move through 1941-1957 is sideways action for Thursday. Copper tells the story. Watch JJC 37.60. The bulls are cruising and copper will dictate whether the party continues, or not.

6/22/14; 7:00 PM EST =

6/17/14; 9:00 AM EST = +63; signal line is +61

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long as markets stagger towards the Fed decision and press conference Wednesday afternoon. The algo did not print any numbers during the Tuesday session. The RTH remains above 59.00 during the entire session so sideways with an upward bias is expected for equities which occurs. Market bears got nothing unless they push RTH under 59.00. The bulls need JJC above 37.59 (now at 37.26 causing market bearishness) which will guarantee a test of the all-time highs for the SPX and higher. Thus, bears need weaker retail stocks and bulls need stronger copper. Copper direction overnight will provide insight into the stock market for Wednesday. Copper is currently trading flat to higher so this would add a few pennies to JJC after the opening bell tomorrow.

For the SPX starting at 1942, the bulls need to touch the 1944 handle and an upside acceleration will occur to 1949 where price will decide to test the all-time highs at 1951-1956, or not. The bears need to push under 1934 to accelerate the downside. A move through 1935-1943 is sideways action and may very well occur until Fed Chair Yellen brings the tablets down from on high to direct markets how to trade.

The imminent turn notation is not in the title line above, despite the two-tick difference between the algo number and signal line, since copper moves higher (towards JJC 37.59) and the retail stocks move firmly higher (RTH above 59.00). If RTH loses 59, consider the imminent turn notation to be back in play and if the SPX then loses 1934, Keybot will likely flip short. The Fed decision and press conference between 2 PM EST and 3:30 PM EST will greatly impact market direction. Bulls win with JJC 37.59 and SPX 1944. Bears win with RTH 59 and SPX 1934.

6/22/14; 7:00 PM EST =

6/17/14; 9:00 AM EST = +63; signal line is +61

6/16/14; 3:03 PM EST = +63; signal line is +61

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains bullish as the bull-bear struggle continues; evidenced by the tiny two-tick difference between the algo number and signal line. The algo is tracking retail and copper with interest. The bulls need JJC 37.55 to take the SPX back to the all-time highs. The top number affecting market direction currently is RTH 58.98. Price is 59.08 one dime in the bull camp creating market lift. The reatail sector carried the broad indexes higher during the last hour of trading yesterday. If the RTH drops under 58.98, and the SPX drops under 1931, Keybot will likely flip short. The bears would also benefit if the VIX moves above 13.75 (now at 12.75 creating lift in equity markets).

For the SPX starting at 1938, the bulls need to push up through 1941 and 1949 will print in quick order. The bears need to push under 1931 to accelerate the downside. A move through 1932-1940 is sideways action. Markets may meander sideways considering the Fed decision and press conference is on tap tomorrow afternoon. S&P futures are -4 so if the bears can create a few more points of negativity and punch RTH in the gut, they may finally be able to flip Keybot to the short side. RTH 58.98 provides the market directional answer today. The turn to the short side remains imminent.

6/22/14; 7:00 PM EST =

6/17/14; 9:00 AM EST = +63; signal line is +61

6/16/14; 3:03 PM EST = +63; signal line is +61

6/16/14; 11:35 AM EST = +47; signal line is +60 but algorithm remains long

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long as the market theatrics continue. Keybot prints two numbers to begin the new week of trading. RTH oscillates above and below 58.98 today sending the markets in the same respective directions. Keybot wants to go short and will do so if the SPX drops under 1928 and remains under (RTH must stay under 58.98 as well). The SPX is at 1932 so the bears need another four points to create the conditions where Keybot likely flips short.

6/17/14; 9:00 AM EST =

6/16/14; 11:35 AM EST = +47; signal line is +60 but algorithm remains long

6/16/14; 9:44 AM EST = +63; signal line is +61

6/15/14; 7:00 PM EST = +47; signal line is +61 but algorithm remains long

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant is long as the new week of trading begins but the algo is champing at the bit to go short. The algo number is 14 points under the signal line to create the move to the short side but the program has not latched all parameters properly as yet to allow the move.

The retail sector remains key. Watch RTH 58.98 as the main market directional rudder for Monday. Price is 58.93 only a nickel in the bear camp creating market negativity. Bears need to keep sending RTH lower and at the same time pushing volatility higher. The algo identifies VIX 14.05 as the level that would lock in sustainable market selling. The bulls need to push RTH above 58.98 and they will be in relaxation mode with equities floating along sideways with an upward bias with the fears for the short side eliminated. The rise in equities on Friday is surprising considering the weaker retail stocks.

For the SPX starting at 1936, the bulls only need one-point of upside, to push up through 1937, and the upside acceleration party begins the week with the SPX moving above 1940 quickly. So watch to see if the overnight futures are positive, or not. The bears need to push under 1928 to accelerate the downside. A move through 1929-1936 is sideways action. If the SPX drops under 1928, Keybot will likely flip short, hence the imminent turn notation in the title line. If equities gap-down at the open, Keybot will likely not flip short at the opening bell since a timer will kick in that prevents the move for about 90 minutes. RTH 58.98 will tell you the market story. Keybot prints one pre-scheduled number this week at 9 AM EST on Tuesday morning.

6/22/14; 7:00 PM EST =

6/17/14; 9:00 AM EST =

6/15/14; 7:00 PM EST = +47; signal line is +61 but algorithm remains long

6/13/14; 12:27 PM EST = +47; signal line is +60 but algorithm remains long

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long through the weekend. The algo prints two more numbers in the Friday session and continues to want to go short but the internal parameters will not yet latch to permit the move. RTH 58.98 will remain key but this number can be verified after the Sunday pre-scheduled number prints tomorrow. The algo likely needs the SPX to drop under 1928 on Monday to flip to the short side.

6/15/14; 7:00 PM EST =

6/13/14; 12:27 PM EST = +47; signal line is +60 but algorithm remains long

6/13/14; 10:42 AM EST = +63; signal line is +60

6/13/14; 10:00 AM EST = +47; signal line is +60 but algorithm remains long

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long but the algo is champing at the bit to go short. A turn to the short side may be imminent. RTH drops under the critical 58.98 bull-bear line in the sand creating market negativity. The algo wants to go short and is currently seeking to latch the various parameters to allow the move to occur. The key component would be the SPX dropping under 1925.78. If this occurs and holds for about five or more minutes, Keybot will likely flip to the short side. The low print is 1929.69 thus far today so bears need another four points under this level. The bulls will try to push RTH above 58.98 and if they succeed, equities will recover and float higher today.

6/15/14; 7:00 PM EST =

6/13/14; 10:00 AM EST = +47; signal line is +60 but algorithm remains long

6/13/14; 9:36 AM EST = +47; signal line is +60 but algorithm remains long

6/12/14; 3:53 PM EST = +63; signal line is +60

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long as the bears flex their muscles a wee bit over the last couple days. The algo finally prints a couple of numbers this week. Commodities have exploded higher with oil jumping on the Iraq turmoil so instead of pulling GTX lower, the bears focus attention on the retail sector and this morning's retail sale data creates a negative mood.

Watch RTH 58.98 as the most important bull-bear line in the sand identified by Keybot. RTH dropped briefly below in the final one-half hour of trading but recovered to sit only two cents on the bull side at 59.00. If RTH drops under 58.98, and the SPX drops under 1926, Keybot will likely flip to the short side. The algo was in position to flip short late today but the bulls remain in control. If RTH stays above 58.98 and moves higher, the stock market will recover and move higher.

VIX 14.05 is another bull-bear line worth watching. VIX is at 12.56 causing market bullishness. Bears need the VIX above 14.05.

For the SPX starting at 1930, the bulls need to push above 1943 to accelerate the upside. The bears need to push under 1926 to accelerate the downside. A move through 1927-1942 is sideways action to end the week. Watch RTH 58.98. Basically, whichever way the retail sector goes, so goes equities. The bulls are driving the bus. Markets remain very unstable.

6/15/14; 7:00 PM EST =

6/13/14; 10:00 AM EST =

6/12/14; 3:53 PM EST = +63; signal line is +60

6/12/14; 3:29 PM EST = +47; signal line is +60 but algorithm remains long

6/8/14; 7:00 PM EST = +63; signal line is +60

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long as the SPX moves through a tight 5-point range on Tuesday. The bulls brought copper off the lows yesterday which enabled equities to remain elevated and stagger sideways. The algo has not printed any numbers thus far this week. Same-o set up for Wednesday. Keybot is tracking copper and commodities.

Bulls need JJC above 37.77 to signal the all-clear and the path higher for equities. Bears need GTX under 4990 to create downside selling in equities. If GTX loses 4990 (only 20 points away from the current 5010 print), and the SPX loses 1945, and both remain under, Keybot will likely flip short. The imminent turn notation is not in the title line, for now, but if GTX turns bearish consider a flip to the short side imminent.

For the SPX starting at 1951 closing at the highs for another day, the bulls only need a smidge of green in the futures and it is off to the races higher for another day. S&P futures are -3 about 4-1/2 hours before the opening bell. The bears need to push under 1945 to accelerate the downside. A move through 1946-1950 is sideways action. Considering the tight 4-point range, one side or the other will likely win today. Bulls win above 1950-1951. Bears win under 1944-1945.

6/13/14; 10:00 AM EST =

6/8/14; 7:00 PM EST = +63; signal line is +60

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long as markets idled sideways in Monday trading. Copper becomes more bearish while commodities become more bullish each camp digging in deeper refusing to relinquish control. Thus, status quo and equities float sideways with an upward bias. The bulls push SPX above 1949.50 so price accelerated to a new all-time high at 1955.55. Same-o story today. Bulls need JJC 37.81 to confirm further sustainable market upside while the bears need GTX 4990 to create market selling and lower equity markets. If copper remains bearish, and commodities bullish, respectively, equities float along sideways with an upward bias like yesterday.

For the SPX starting at 1951, the bulls need to move above 1955.50 and another upside acceleration will occur sending price above 1960. The bears need to push under 1947 to accelerate the downside quickly to 1942. A move through 1948-1955 is sideways action. S&P futures are -4 about four hours before the opening bell which would send the SPX price lower to test the 1947 level at the start. If copper keeps creeping lower it is a signal that the upside in equities will fail. If copper reverses and starts moving to the upside again then the bulls are going to run equities higher moving forward.

If the GTX drops under 4990, and the SPX under 1947, and both remain under, Keybot will likely flip short, however, GTX jumped about +1% yesterday and sits at 5026 so the imminent turn notation is removed for now but caution must be maintained. The algo number and signal line are only three points difference showing that markets remain in a bull-bear struggle despite the rally over the last few days.

6/13/14; 10:00 AM EST =

6/8/14; 7:00 PM EST = +63; signal line is +60

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long and did not print any further numbers last week after the pre-scheduled number on Friday. The bulls push higher. The new week of trading begins with a fight between copper and commodities to control market direction. Bears need lower commodities pushing GTX under 4969 (now at 4983 causing market bullishness). Bulls need higher copper pushing JJC above 37.88 (now at 37.29 causing market bearishness). JJC 37.88 will verify more market upside ahead. GTX 4969 verifies a ceiling in the market upside with equities selling off moving forward.

If both remain as is, markets will float along sideways with a slight upward bias. If GTX loses 4969, and the SPX loses 1942.50, and both remain under, Keybot will likely flip short as surprising as that may sound considering the ongoing upside bullish orgy. Therefore, the imminent turn notation is added to the title line (the difference between the algo number and the signal line is only 3 points signaling an intense bull-bear struggle in play despite the bulls racking up points). 

For the SPX starting at the highs at 1949.44, any smidge of green in the overnight futures charts the course for another several handle upside move well into the mid 1950's. Market bears must keep the overnight futures negative with all their might at the same time pushing copper lower. Bears need the SPX under 1942.50 which will create a downside acceleration. A move through 1943-1949 is sideways action to begin the week. Keybot prints one pre-scheduled number this week on Friday morning; Friday the 13th. Markets remain very unstable.

6/15/14; 7:00 PM EST =

6/13/14; 10:00 AM EST =

6/8/14; 7:00 PM EST = +63; signal line is +60

6/6/14; 9:00 AM EST = +63; signal line is +59

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long as the Friday session is set to begin. The algo prints the pre-scheduled number which results in a one-tick increase for the signal line. The difference between the algo number and signal line is only four points indicating a bull-bear struggle ongoing despite all the recent market upside.

Copper is taking the pipe today losing -1.6% in the early going therefore the bulls are going to have a tough time making upside headway with weaker copper (despite S&P futures at +4). Use GTX 4969 as the main rudder steering the direction of the market ship today. Bulls will continue winning if GTX stays above 4969. Equities will weaken and a market top will be in place if GTX loses 4969.

6/8/14; 7:00 PM EST =

6/6/14; 9:00 AM EST = +63; signal line is +59

6/5/14; 1:31 PM EST = +63; signal line is +58

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG --CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long with the algo very active today printing six numbers. Keybot was in position to go short but the internal parameters would not latch to allow the move. GTX danced above and below the 4969 bull-bear line in the sand all day long but ended in the bull camp. Copper remains in the bear camp. Thus, bulls win with JJC above 37.90. Bears win with GTX under 4969. If the GTX loses 4969, and the SPX drops under 1923, and both remain under, Keybot will likely flip short.

For the SPX starting at 1940, the bulls need to touch the 1942 handle and the upside acceleration continues towards 1950 in quick order. The bears need to push under 1923 to regain their downside mojo. A move through 1924-1941 is sideways action. The caution flag remains. If GTX loses 4969, an imminent turn is in play.

6/8/14; 7:00 PM EST =

6/6/14; 9:00 AM EST =

6/5/14; 1:31 PM EST = +63; signal line is +58

6/5/14; 12:47 PM EST = +47; signal line is +57 but algorithm remains long

6/5/14; 12:25 PM EST = +63; signal line is +57

6/5/14; 12:07 PM EST = +47; signal line is +57 but algorithm remains long

6/5/14; 11:15 AM EST = +63; signal line is +57

6/5/14; 9:36 AM EST = +47; signal line is +58 but algorithm remains long

6/4/14; 9:36 AM EST = +63; signal line is +59

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long moving into the Thursday session. Interestingly, Keybot came close to flipping short with copper weak and commodities weakening. The GTX dropped to the 4969 bull-bear line in the sand and bounced only to weaken again and now sit only 3 bucks above at 4972 in the bull camp. Copper and commodities are having the strongest impact on broad market direction currently. Bulls win if JJC moves above 37.91. Bears win if GTX moves under 4969. If GTX loses 4969, and the SPX drops under 1919, and both remain under, it is very likely that Keybot will flip to the short side. Since this can easily occur with very little effort, the imminent turn notation is displayed. ECB's Draghi will decide the fate of the markets.

For the SPX starting at 1928 at new all-time highs, the bulls need to touch the 1929 handle and price will run to 1932 and higher quickly. The bears need to push under 1919 to accelerate the downside. A move through 1920-1928 is sideways action. Watch copper overnight since that will provide an initial projection for markets. The ECB Rate Decision announcement is 7:45 AM EST and the Draghi Press Conference begins 8:30 AM EST so futures should be active ahead of the US opening bell. Bulls win with JJC 37.91 and SPX 1929. Bears win with GTX 4969 and SPX 1919.

6/6/14; 9:00 AM EST =

6/4/14; 9:36 AM EST = +63; signal line is +59

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long but bears are fighting back with the weaker copper as their rallying cry. JJC fails at 37.92 ushering in today's market weakness. GTX remains at 4992 in the bull camp flat in today's trade. The algo is tracking JJC 37.92 and RTH 58.67 with interest, copper and retail, respectively. Bears have created a ceiling in markets with JJC 37.92 and lower. Bulls obviously need JJC above 37.92 and the market upside resumes. Bears need RTH under 58.67 to create firm negativity and likely cause Keybot to flip to the short side.

Note the bears took the SPX down to the 1919 but price bounced instead of failing. Bears will throw confetti if the RTH loses 58.67 and SPX loses 1919. Bulls will throw confetti by simply sending JJC back above 37.92 and the SPX above 1925. Markets will stagger sideways if JJC stays under 37.92 and RTH above 58.67. The algo number is only four points from the signal line verifying the coin-flip markets ahead of the ECB decision tomorrow morning. Caution is warranted and the price levels provided will determine market direction.

6/6/14; 9:00 AM EST =

6/4/14; 9:36 AM EST = +63; signal line is +59

6/1/14; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +79; signal line is +59

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long and has not printed any numbers thus far this week. Today should change that with copper dropping -1.5% this morning. The bears can stop the market upside with either JJC 37.92, GTX 4970 and/or RTH 58.65, so weaker copper, commodities and retail, respectively. All 3 are above the levels listed creating market bullishness. Yesterday, GTX came down to 4974 and bounced so the bears did not have enough oomph. JJC should drop under 37.92 at the opening bell today, however, and will place a lid on any further equity upside. Keybot will likely need to see at least 2 of the 3 parameters above turn bearish to move into position for a potential flip to the short side.

For the SPX starting at 1924, the bulls need to move above 1925 and price will accelerate to 1930 in quick order. The bears need to push under 1919 to create a downside acceleration. A move through 1920-1924 is sideways action. Markets may favor a sideways move considering the ECB stimulus announcement occurs this time tomorrow. The caution flag is out since copper is weakening. Watch JJC 37.92 and GTX 4970 closely going forward.

6/6/14; 9:00 AM EST =

6/1/14; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +79; signal line is +59

STOCK MARKET BULLISH - LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long continuing to motor along on the bull caravan. The algo did not print any numbers in the Monday session. The bears are trying to push copper and commodities lower to stop the upside market thrust. The algo is tracking JJC 37.92 and GTX 4970 with interest, respectively. Prices for both are above, in the bull camp, creating broad market lift. Pay attention to GTX 4970 bull-bear line in the sand since price is at 4991 only 21 ticks away. If bears are going to stop the equity market upside, they must push GTX under 4970. Copper is down -0.8% this morning so the JJC should drop about 31 cents to 38.31 at the opening bell but remaining well above the 37.92 danger line. Bears need double this drop to attack the danger line.

For the SPX closing at another new all-time high at 1925, and new all-time intraday high at 1926, the bulls only need to touch the 1926 handle and bingo, price will be above 1930 in quick order. The bears need to push under 1916 to accelerate the downside. A move through 1917-1925 is sideways action. S&P futures are -2 about four hours before the opening bell. The bulls are cruising with their feet up on the dash. Watch copper and commodities to see if the market upside stalls, or not.

6/6/14; 9:00 AM EST =

6/1/14; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +79; signal line is +59

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant is long moving into the new week of trading. The algo is tracking JJC 37.85 and GTX 4966 as two important bull-bear lines in the sand. Both are currently bullish which create higher equity markets. Bears are in for more pain unless they send copper and commodities lower.

For the SPX starting at 1924, closing near the highs just like the day before, the bulls need any amount of positivity in the overnight S&P futures and it is off to the races higher with the SPX printing 1930. The bears must keep the overnight futures negative and push the SPX under 1917 to accelerate the downside. A move through 1918-1923 is sideways action to begin the week.

The bulls are cruising but the model is overbot at +79 indicating that a market top may be occurring. Copper strength overnight will make for happy bulls since equities will likely keep running higher but copper weakness overnight will make for happy bears since the equity upside will likely stall. Keybot prints one pre-scheduled number this week on Friday morning.

6/8/14; 7:00 PM EST =

6/6/14; 9:00 AM EST =

6/1/14; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +79; signal line is +59

5/30/14; 10:00 AM EST = +79; signal line is +59