Thursday, June 12, 2014

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long as the bears flex their muscles a wee bit over the last couple days. The algo finally prints a couple of numbers this week. Commodities have exploded higher with oil jumping on the Iraq turmoil so instead of pulling GTX lower, the bears focus attention on the retail sector and this morning's retail sale data creates a negative mood.

Watch RTH 58.98 as the most important bull-bear line in the sand identified by Keybot. RTH dropped briefly below in the final one-half hour of trading but recovered to sit only two cents on the bull side at 59.00. If RTH drops under 58.98, and the SPX drops under 1926, Keybot will likely flip to the short side. The algo was in position to flip short late today but the bulls remain in control. If RTH stays above 58.98 and moves higher, the stock market will recover and move higher.

VIX 14.05 is another bull-bear line worth watching. VIX is at 12.56 causing market bullishness. Bears need the VIX above 14.05.

For the SPX starting at 1930, the bulls need to push above 1943 to accelerate the upside. The bears need to push under 1926 to accelerate the downside. A move through 1927-1942 is sideways action to end the week. Watch RTH 58.98. Basically, whichever way the retail sector goes, so goes equities. The bulls are driving the bus. Markets remain very unstable.

6/15/14; 7:00 PM EST =
6/13/14; 10:00 AM EST =
6/12/14; 3:53 PM EST = +63; signal line is +60
6/12/14; 3:29 PM EST = +47; signal line is +60 but algorithm remains long
6/8/14; 7:00 PM EST = +63; signal line is +60

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