Thursday, September 4, 2014

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the short side this afternoon as volatility climbs and the SPX drops. The algo has been threatening a move to the short side for the last week. The Monthly Jobs Report occurs in the morning and may catapult markets wildly one way or the other so a whipsaw may occur. The algo prints a pre-scheduled number before the opening bell.

For the last trade, the algorithm computer program gains +2.3% and the actual trading gains +4.7%. Keybot exits UWM and enters SDS. The algo continues using double leveraged ETF's since whipsaw moves have not occurred in recent weeks. The benchmark SPX index is up +8% on the year. Adding in last year's +30% and the SPX is up nearly +40% in only about one and one-half year's time. The central bankers are throwing one heck of a party.

For Friday, the same two key parameters are effecting market direction the most; VIX 12.45 and JJC 38.68. Bears need volatility to keep moving higher to prove they got game. Bulls need to push the VIX back under 12.45 which will ruin the bear's day and at the same time push copper higher. The bulls may be able to flip Keybot back to the long side on Friday if the SPX prints above 2011. Due to the erratic nature of the stock market currently and considering the Jobs Report is on tap in the morning, anything is game for Friday.

For the SPX starting at 1998, the bulls need to print above 2011 to launch an upside acceleration. The bears need to push below 1993 to accelerate the downside which will likely cause a failure at the strong 1991 support and send price to 1988. A move through 1994-2010 is sideways action to end the week. The bears are driving the bus. How far will they travel?

9/7/14; 7:00 PM EST =
9/5/14; 9:00 AM EST =
9/4/14; 3:03 PM EST = +40; signal line is +51; go short 1997; (Benchmark SPX for 2014 = +8.1%)(Keybot this trade = +2.3%; Keybot for 2014 = +8.5%)(Actual this trade = +4.7%; Actual for 2014 = +10.3%)
9/4/14; 2:55 PM EST = +40; signal line is +51 but algorithm remains long
9/3/14; 12:15 PM EST = +54; signal line is +51
9/3/14; 11:57 AM EST = +40; signal line is +51 but algorithm remains long
9/2/14; 2:52 PM EST = +54; signal line is +51
9/2/14; 11:52 AM EST = +40; signal line is +51 but algorithm remains long
9/2/14; 11:03 AM EST = +54; signal line is +51
9/2/14; 9:42 AM EST = +40; signal line is +51 but algorithm remains long
8/31/14; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +54; signal line is +51
8/29/14; 10:00 AM EST = +54; signal line is +51
8/28/14; 10:00 AM EST = +54; signal line is +50
8/28/14; 9:45 AM EST = +40; signal line is +49 but algorithm remains long
8/28/14; 9:36 AM EST = +54; signal line is +48
8/27/14; 3:47 PM EST = +70; signal line is +47
8/27/14; 9:39 AM EST = +54; signal line is +45
8/26/14; 10:00 AM EST = +70; signal line is +42
8/24/14; 7:00 PM EST = +69; signal line is +40
8/21/14; 10:02 AM EST = +69; signal line is +37
8/20/14; 3:57 PM EST = +53; signal line is +34
8/20/14; 1:53 PM EST = +69; signal line is +32
8/20/14; 1:26 PM EST = +53; signal line is +29
8/20/14; 12:17 PM EST = +69; signal line is +27
8/19/14; 9:00 AM EST = +53; signal line is +24
8/18/14; 9:36 AM EST = +53; signal line is +22
8/17/14; 7:00 PM EST = +39; signal line is +20
8/15/14; 2:31 PM EST = +39; signal line is +18
8/15/14; 1:05 PM EST = +23; signal line is +17
8/15/14; 12:43 PM EST = +39; signal line is +16
8/15/14; 11:58 AM EST = +23; signal line is +15
8/15/14; 10:57 AM EST = +39; signal line is +16
8/15/14; 10:00 AM EST = +53; signal line is +15
8/14/14; 12:01 PM EST = +53; signal line is +15
8/14/14; 11:46 AM EST = +37; signal line is +15
8/14/14; 11:17 AM EST = +53; signal line is +15
8/14/14; 10:31 AM EST = +37; signal line is +15
8/14/14; 10:32 AM EST = +53; signal line is +15; go long 1952; (Benchmark SPX for 2014 = +5.6%)(Keybot this trade = +1.2%; Keybot for 2014 = +6.2%)(Actual this trade = +0.2%; Actual for 2014 = +5.6%)

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