Wednesday, September 17, 2014

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant flips to the long side just before Fed Chair Yellen begins speaking today at SPX 2005. Equities continue to react wildly, down, up, sideways, down, big up, down, like a ping-pong ball. Volatility is key. Watch VIX 12.37. Copper is weak today remaining in the bear camp. The VIX turns bullish and the market is in Fed rally mode although leaking lower as this message is typed.

The broad indexes are printing at new all-time highs. The algo takes a -0.4% loss with the computer program on the last trade and a -1.0% loss with the actual trade. Keybot switches out of SDS and into SSO.

The markets keep dropping off the highs and VIX is coming back up to the bull-bear line at 12.37. It is very rare for the algo to whipsaw on the same day; it may have happened only a two times in the last five years. If the VIX moves above 12.37 and it holds, the SPX likely has to print down at 1985-1994 to create a whipsaw back to the short side so the bulls may be okay into the closing bell. Bulls and bears continue fighting it out. Stay alert for a whipsaw move probably not in the final minutes today but perhaps for tomorrow.

9/21/14; 7:00 PM EST =
9/18/14; 9:00 AM EST =
9/17/14; 2:24 PM EST = +56; signal line is +42; go long 2005; (Benchmark SPX for 2014 = +8.5%)(Keybot this trade = -0.4%; Keybot for 2014 = +8.1%)(Actual this trade = -1.0%; Actual for 2014 = +9.3%)
9/16/14; 9:52 AM EST = +42; signal line is +42 but algorithm remains short
9/15/14; 3:48 PM EST = +26; signal line is +43
9/15/14; 2:32 PM EST = +42; signal line is +44
9/15/14; 2:11 PM EST = +26; signal line is +45
9/15/14; 12:55 PM EST = +42; signal line is +47
9/15/14; 12:54 PM EST = +26; signal line is +48
9/15/14; 12:09 PM EST = +10; signal line is +49
9/15/14; 11:23 AM EST = +26; signal line is +51
9/14/14; 7:00 PM EST = +42; signal line is +52
9/12/14; 10:00 AM EST = +42; signal line is +53
9/8/14; 11:57 AM EST = +40; signal line is +53
9/8/14; 9:36 AM EST = +56; signal line is +54 but algorithm remains short
9/7/14; 7:00 PM EST = +54; signal line is +53 but algorithm remains short
9/5/14; 12:36 PM EST = +54; signal line is +53 but algorithm remains short
9/5/14; 9:00 AM EST = +40; signal line is +52
9/4/14; 3:03 PM EST = +40; signal line is +51; go short 1997; (Benchmark SPX for 2014 = +8.1%)(Keybot this trade = +2.3%; Keybot for 2014 = +8.5%)(Actual this trade = +4.7%; Actual for 2014 = +10.3%)

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