Thursday, October 30, 2014


Keybot the Quant remains long moving into the Friday session. The bulls recover on Thursday sending semiconductors higher creating bull fuel in the afternoon. Friday is a battle of copper and semi's. JJC closes at 37.04 a hair away from the 37.16 line in the sand. Bears win if JJC stays under 37.16. Bulls win above and will send the SPX towards 2K. Watch SOX 612.95. Bulls win if SOX stays above 612.95. Bears win below and will send stocks lower if the chips fail.

For the SPX starting at 1995, the bulls need to touch the 2000 handle and bingo, the upside will accelerate several more handles. The bears need to push under 1975 to regain their mojo and accelerate lower. A move through 1976-1999 is sideways action to end the week. The bears were threatening today and many traders were likely caught in a bear trap at SPX 1975-ish and then the SPX rallied over 20 handles intraday.

NYA is above the 10648 line in the sand (40-week MA) which is a deadly blow to bears for the weeks and months ahead. Bears need to focus on keeping copper lower and making semiconductors fail; then they can set their sights on NYA 10648 to right the bear ship. Bulls only need higher copper to party into the weekend perhaps with a 2 handle on the SPX. Watch the overnight copper futures. Basically, for Friday, as copper goes, so goes the stock market. The caution flag is taken down until the bears can flex their muscles again. The algo number is 22 points above the signal line so the bulls remain in good shape. Listen for any semiconductor news overnight.

10/31/14; 10:00 AM EST =
10/30/14; 1:11 PM EST = +44; signal line is +22
10/30/14; 11:03 AM EST = +28; signal line is +20

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