STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long as the market continues whipsaw behavior. Bulls need JJC above 25.01 to prove up is the continued path ahead for the stock market so watch to see if copper trades higher. Bears need weaker utilities and financials, UTIL under 580.50 and XLF under 23.85, respectively, if they want to send stocks lower.

For the SPX starting at 2078, the bulls need to touch the 2082 handle and boom, price will accelerate higher to 2090 in quick order. The bears need to push under 2061 to accelerate the downside. A move through 2062-2081 is sideways action for Wednesday.

1/3/16; 7:00 PM EST EOM; EOQ4; EOY 2015 =

12/29/15; 10:00 AM EST = +52; signal line is +15

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long as the bulls throw a big party today. The pre-scheduled number bumps the algo number higher to +52. The algo is tracking copper which has started to ramp strongly higher. Watch JJC 25.01, price is now at 24.79. The market bulls need JJC above 25 to send the stock market far higher. Bears need to push copper, financials and utilities lower to stop the rally. The bulls are in control. Watch JJC 25.

1/3/16; 7:00 PM EST EOM; EOQ4; EOY 2015 =

12/29/15; 10:00 AM EST = +52; signal line is +15

12/28/15; 2:27 PM EST = +49; signal line is +12

Thank You for Your Generosity

Wikipedia, Mozilla and other sites are conducting membership drives so what better time and season to seek funding for those less fortunate than now when everyone is in a good mood. This message is not directed at the regular donors to the K E Stone Blog Series of sites including Keystone the Scribe, Keybot the Quant and The Keystone Speculator, but instead to the thousands of others that have not.

The sites seek to entertain and educate market participants on technical analysis, algorithmic trading and macro economics (remember that you must seek the advice of your financial advisor before making any investment decision). Thousands of international users enjoy the sites daily.

Ridiculously, the traffic to the three blogs increases month after month but the ad revenue from the sites has been cut in one-half over the last few months due to ad-blocking software. The ad blockers are killing the original content creators on the web. The ad revenue from web sites using services such as Google Adsense help deter any costs of a site. Ad blockers, however, are drastically changing the landscape. Original content creators will have to seek other methods of supplementing the losses in revenue from the ad blocking software. Comically, those that block out ads to read the original content in a simpler format may actually end up without having any original content to read.

So if you have some leftover change, press the button in the right margin. The original content posted on the sites will be provided as per the interest received in the sties. A couple other web sites are planned but will not be pursued if the current sites are not supported, especially with the increased use of ad blockers which has drastically changed the game for original content providers.

Food banks are on tough times. In Pennsylvania, USA, the idiot politicians cannot agree on a budget for the last six months and the loss of funding is negatively impacting schools and most importantly the food banks. Do not forget to clear out your pantry and toss the canned goods into a box and drop it off at the local food bank. Also donate any old coats since a child would be happy to have something warm to wear this winter.

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long with the algo logging an active day printing two more numbers in the afternoon. The algo number is 37 points above the signal line showing that the bulls are on easy street. Bears need either UTIL under 580.50, XLF under 23.85 and/or SPX under 2053. The algo probably wants all three to turn bearish for Keybot to flip short but if all three do turn bearish, the algo will probably flip short immediately. If one or two parameters remain bullish, stocks will likely float higher.

The bulls need higher copper to prove that they mean business to the upside. Bulls need JJC above 24.87 now at 24.00. For the SPX on Tuesday starting at 2057, the bulls only need one point in the overnight S&P futures and bingo, the SPX will accelerate higher at the opening bell into the 2060's. The bears need to push the SPX under 2044 to create an acceleration lower with market carnage on tap. In addition, bears will be fighting overnight to keep the S&P futures negative. A move through 2045-2056 is sideways action for Tuesday. Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number tomorrow morning shortly after the opening bell. The bulls are in charge. Bears need weaker utilities and financials.

12/29/15; 10:00 AM EST =

12/28/15; 2:27 PM EST = +49; signal line is +12

12/28/15; 1:59 PM EST = +35; signal line is +11

12/28/15; 1:21 PM EST = +49; signal line is +11

STOCK MARKET BULLISH - LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long but is very active in today's trading printing nine numbers to begin the last week of trading in 2015. The algo wanted to flip short but all the necessary parameters would not latch to allow the move.

SPX 2052.63 is a key level and price is dancing to and fro at this level as this is typed. Also watch XLF 23.85 and UTIL 580.51. These three parameters dictate broad market direction currently. If 2 of the 3 turn bearish, and the SPX drops down to 2044 and lower, Keybot will likely flip short.

1/3/16; 7:00 PM EST EOM; EOQ4; EOY 2015 =

12/29/15; 10:00 AM EST =

12/28/15; 1:21 PM EST = +49; signal line is +11

12/28/15; 11:57 AM EST = +35; signal line is +10

12/28/15; 11:52 AM EST = +19; signal line is +10

12/28/15; 11:45 AM EST = +3; signal line is +10 but algorithm remains long

12/28/15; 11:07 AM EST = +19; signal line is +11

12/28/15; 10:52 AM EST = +3; signal line is +11 but algorithm remains long

12/28/15; 9:57 AM EST = +19; signal line is +11

12/28/15; 9:49 AM EST = +33; signal line is +10

12/28/15; 9:36 AM EST = +19; signal line is +9

12/27/15; 7:00 PM EST = +33; signal line is +9

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant is on the long side moving into the new week of trading. The market bulls need UTIL above 581.70 which will verify more broad market upside. The market bears need to push the SPX under 2053 to create market negativity. Bears got nothing unless the SPX moves below 2053. If the SPX slips under 2053, the caution flag will be immediately out, and if XLF slips under 23.82, the imminent turn flag will be out; Keybot would likely be in position to flip short.

For the SPX starting at 2061, only 2 points positive on the entire year with 4 trading days remaining in 2015, the bulls need to push above 2067 to create an upside acceleration quickly into the 2070's. The bears need to push under 2059, only a couple points lower to create a downside acceleration that will quickly test the 2053 mentioned above for a critical bounce or die decision that would determine the broad stock market direction ahead. A move through 2060-2066 is sideways action to begin the week but since this is a fairly tight range, a winner and loser will likely be decided on Monday.

Keybot prints one pre-scheduled number this week on Tuesday morning and the year's data can be closed out and 2016 started next weekend.

1/3/16; 7:00 PM EST EOM; EOQ4; EOY 2015 =

12/29/15; 10:00 AM EST =

12/27/15; 7:00 PM EST = +33; signal line is +9

12/24/15; 11:07 AM EST = +33; signal line is +9

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long. It is interesting to watch the key UTIL 581.70 level. The bulls punched above but then slipped back below. UTIL is at 580.89 under by 81 cents. Bulls need to move utilities higher to prove that up is the direction for markets. If UTIL rolls over to the downside, the bears will need SPX under 2053 and XLF under 23.86 to prove they got the beans to accelerate the downside in the stock market. Status quo will send markets bumping along sideways.

UTIL is at 581.15. SPX is 2062. XLF is 24.03. The beat goes on.

12/27/15; 7:00 PM EST =

12/24/15; 11:07 AM EST = +33; signal line is +9

12/24/15; 10:57 AM EST = +49; signal line is +7

12/23/15; 10:42 AM EST = +33; signal line is +5

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is back on the long side with choppy action continuing. The site has not been updated since Monday. On Tuesday afternoon, Keybot flips long and yesterday (Wednesday) three numbers print increasing the bull strength. Lower volatility has  pumped the stock market higher since Tuesday and financials add more upside juice. The SPX also overtook the key SPX 2053 level (12-month MA) which accelerated the upside. Utilities are key currently. The bulls need to push UTIL above 581.70 and as this is typed that occurs. UTIL is at 582. Watch and see if UTIL remains above and moving higher, if so, the stock market will float higher. If UTIL drops under 581.70, equities should leak lower.

SPX 2053 is a key level and markets would quickly deteriorate if this level fail. The SPX is at 2062 as this is typed. So the bulls need UTIL to remain above 581.70 while the bears need SPX under 2053 and XLF (financials) under 23.86.

On the last trade, the Keybot program and actual trading gain a hair, call it flat. The whipsaw nature of markets continues. This is the style of action that occurred in the beginning of the year. Keybot exits RWM and enters IVV. The benchmark SPX will dance along 2059 which is the starting number for the year. UTIL is at 581.74 right now. As utilities go, so goes the markets. In these choppy markets, anything can happen. Markets close early today at 1 PM EST in a couple hours time.

12/27/15; 7:00 PM EST =

12/23/15; 10:42 AM EST = +33; signal line is +5

12/23/15; 10:00 AM EST = +19; signal line is +4

12/23/15; 9:51 AM EST = +18; signal line is +3

12/22/15; 12:35 PM EST = +2; signal line is +2; go long 2031; (Benchmark SPX for 2015 = -1.4%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.3%; Keybot algo for 2015 = +10.3%)(Actual results this trade = +0.2%; Actual results for 2015 = +18.8%)

12/21/15; 3:37 PM EST = +2; signal line is +2 but algorithm remains short

12/21/15; 3:15 PM EST = -12; signal line is +1

12/21/15; 1:07 PM EST = +2; signal line is -1 but algorithm remains short

12/21/15; 12:28 PM EST = -12; signal line is -2

12/21/15; 11:41 AM EST = -28; signal line is -3

12/21/15; 11:19 AM EST = -12; signal line is -3

12/21/15; 10:11 AM EST = +2; signal line is -3 but algorithm remains short

12/21/15; 10:07 AM EST = -14; signal line is -3

12/20/15; 7:00 PM EST = -28; signal line is -3

12/18/15; 9:30 AM EST = -28; signal line is -3; go short 2037; (Benchmark SPX for 2015 = -1.1%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.1%; Keybot algo for 2015 = +10.0%)(Actual results this trade = -1.0%; Actual results for 2015 = +18.6%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short after a very active day with the algo printing eight numbers to begin the week. The bulls are pumping chips and lowering volatility to create upside buoyancy in the stock market. Note that the algo number and signal line are dead flat at +2 verifying the knock-down, drag-out bull-bear fight in play. Flip a coin, someone will have to lose and the other win.

The bears need either SOX under 659.70 (now at 666) and/or VIX above 19.55 (now at 18.70). The bulls need either JJC above 25.10 (now at 24.67) and/or the SPX above 2052. So the bears need lower chips and higher volatility while the bulls need higher copper. Keep an eye on copper in the coming days since bulls are trying to ignite some life in the other yellow metal which will boost the broad stock market. Market bulls likely need higher copper to flip the model long but as always anything can happen. Keybot only reads the 1's and 0's and these color commentaries try to provide insight into the algo's behavior.

For the SPX starting at 2021, the bulls need to touch the 2023 handle, less than 2 points higher and bingo, the upside will accelerate towards 2030. The bears must push under 2006 which will create an acceleration under 2K quickly. A move through 2007-2022 is sideways action for Tuesday. Since the model appears to be at a standoff, a pivot may occur and commitment one way or the other. If semiconductors move lower and volatility higher, bears win. If copper moves higher, bulls win.

12/27/15; 7:00 PM EST =

12/21/15; 3:37 PM EST = +2; signal line is +2 but algorithm remains short

12/21/15; 3:15 PM EST = -12; signal line is +1

12/21/15; 1:07 PM EST = +2; signal line is -1 but algorithm remains short

12/21/15; 12:28 PM EST = -12; signal line is -2

12/21/15; 11:41 AM EST = -28; signal line is -3

12/21/15; 11:19 AM EST = -12; signal line is -3

12/21/15; 10:11 AM EST = +2; signal line is -3 but algorithm remains short

12/21/15; 10:07 AM EST = -14; signal line is -3

12/20/15; 7:00 PM EST = -28; signal line is -3

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant is short moving into the holiday-shortened week of trading. The stock market closes early at 1 PM EST on Thursday, Christmas Eve, and is closed for Friday, Christmas Day. The bulls will need higher financials, semiconductors and lower volatility to stop the downward slide in equities. Watch XLF 24.08, SOX 660.90 and VIX 19.19. Bulls got nothing unless one of these three parameters is achieved. If one parameter turns bullish consider the caution flag out and if 2 of the 3 turn bullish the algorithm will likely be in an imminent turn status ready to flip back to the long side.

The bears need retail stocks to crumble which would create a new flush lower in the stock market. Watch RTH 77.33 which would create carnage. If all four of the above parameters remains status quo, then the stock market will stagger sideways.

For the SPX on Monday starting at 2006, the market bulls need to retrace Friday's drubbing to regain their mojo which is very unlikely, so instead bulls will fight to send banks and chips higher while sending volatility lower. The bears only need to see a smidge of negativity in the overnight S&P futures and boom, stocks will accelerate lower after the opening bell. Keybot does not print any pre-scheduled numbers during this 3-1/2 day trading week.

12/27/15; 7:00 PM EST =

12/20/15; 7:00 PM EST = -28; signal line is -3

12/18/15; 9:30 AM EST = -28; signal line is -3; go short 2037; (Benchmark SPX for 2015 = -1.1%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.1%; Keybot algo for 2015 = +10.0%)(Actual results this trade = -1.0%; Actual results for 2015 = +18.6%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips back to the short side this morning at SPX 2037. At the opening bell, you saw financials and semiconductors collapse and volatility leap higher so the bears grab control and the algo whipsaws again this week. The choppy action is reminiscent of earlier in the year. Choppy action will chew up bulls and bears alike.

For Monday, financials, semi's and volatility will be key. Utilities may become important. Also retail stocks may be in play. The choppy action will likely continue. The bears are in charge with the algo number 25 points under the signal line.

On the last trade the program and the actual trading each lose -1%. The benchmark SPX is down -1.1% on the year with only seven trading days remaining. Keybot exited IWM and entered RWM. The erratic and unstable market action continues.

12/20/15; 7:00 PM EST =

12/18/15; 9:30 AM EST = -28; signal line is -3; go short 2037; (Benchmark SPX for 2015 = -1.1%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.1%; Keybot algo for 2015 = +10.0%)(Actual results this trade = -1.0%; Actual results for 2015 = +18.6%)

12/17/15; 2:56 PM EST = +18; signal line is -2

12/17/15; 1:13 PM EST = +32; signal line is -4

12/17/15; 12:40 PM EST = +18; signal line is -5

12/17/15; 11:42 AM EST = +32; signal line is -6

12/17/15; 11:22 AM EST = +18; signal line is -7

12/16/15; 2:10 PM EST = +32; signal line is -7; go long 2059; (Benchmark SPX for 2015 = +0.0%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.6%; Keybot algo for 2015 = +11.1%)(Actual results this trade = -0.5%; Actual results for 2015 = +19.6%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long and is very active in the Thursday trade printing five numbers. The bears did not violate key bull-bear levels (except for SPX 2052.65) so the algo remains long. You will know that down is the direction if any one, two or all three of these parameters fail; XLF under 24.08, SOX under 660.90 and/or VIX above 19.19. If two of the three turn bearish, Keybot will likely flip short.  If none of these three turn bearish, the bears got nothing and stocks will rally. The bulls need to push SPX above 2052.65 to regain their mojo. So bears will win with lower financials and chips and higher volatility while bulls win if the SPX moves above 2052.

For the SPX starting at 2042, the bulls need to retrace Thursday's down move, a formidable task, so instead bulls will focus on the above parameters. The bears need any smidge of negativity in the overnight S&P futures and the downside will accelerate at the opening bell. XLF 24.08 and SOX 660.90 will immediately tell you market direction after the opening bell.

12/20/15; 7:00 PM EST =

12/17/15; 2:56 PM EST = +18; signal line is -2

12/17/15; 1:13 PM EST = +32; signal line is -4

12/17/15; 12:40 PM EST = +18; signal line is -5

12/17/15; 11:42 AM EST = +32; signal line is -6

12/17/15; 11:22 AM EST = +18; signal line is -7

12/16/15; 2:10 PM EST = +32; signal line is -7; go long 2059; (Benchmark SPX for 2015 = +0.0%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.6%; Keybot algo for 2015 = +11.1%)(Actual results this trade = -0.5%; Actual results for 2015 = +19.6%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is long from SPX 2059 after printing a very rare intraday whipsaw day. The wild market action verifies an ongoing intense battle between bulls and bears. For now, the bulls are winning but this may change tomorrow. For Thursday, the market bears need the SPX under 2053 and/or the VIX above 19.15, otherwise, the bulls will likely keep floating the stock market higher.

For the SPX starting at 2073 on Thursday, the bulls need to touch the 2077 handle and boom, the upside will accelerate to 2080+ quickly. The bears need to retrace Wednesday's big move higher to regain their mojo, a formidable task, so instead bears will focus on pushing the SPX lower and volatility higher.

The whipsaw trades are marginal losses. The benchmark SPX is completely dead flat on the year at the 2059 entry point on the current long trade. The algo has logged six losses in a row but they are all marginal and the program remains up +11.1% this year and the actual trading up +19.6% with 9 trading days renaming in 2015. The algo continues to use single ETF's due to the whipsaw action and will remain in this mode until 1/21/16, at a minimum. Keybot exited the short trade which was SH and entered a long trade with DIA. The whipsaw forced an end to that trade and Keybot exited DIA and entered DOG. This trade was also short-lived. Keybot exited DOG and entered IWM.

The bulls are driving the bus but the caravan is careening down the boulevard. Markets remain erratic and unstable. Anything can happen.

12/20/15; 7:00 PM EST =

12/16/15; 2:10 PM EST = +32; signal line is -7; go long 2059; (Benchmark SPX for 2015 = +0.0%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.6%; Keybot algo for 2015 = +11.1%)(Actual results this trade = -0.5%; Actual results for 2015 = +19.6%)

12/16/15; 1:57 PM EST = +18; signal line is -8 but algorithm remains short

12/16/15; 11:39 PM EST = +4; signal line is -8 but algorithm remains short

12/16/15; 11:24 PM EST = -12; signal line is -8; go short 2047; (Benchmark SPX for 2015 = -0.6%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.2%; Keybot algo for 2015 = +11.7%)(Actual results this trade = -0.4%; Actual results for 2015 = +20.1%)

12/16/15; 10:35 PM EST = +4; signal line is -7; go long 2051; (Benchmark SPX for 2015 = -0.4%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.1%; Keybot algo for 2015 = +11.9%)(Actual results this trade = -0.1%; Actual results for 2015 = +20.5%)

12/16/15; 9:43 AM EST = +18; signal line is -6 but algorithm remains short

12/16/15; 9:36 AM EST = +32; signal line is -7 but algorithm remains short

12/16/15; 9:00 AM EST = -12; signal line is -8

12/15/15; 3:37 PM EST = -12; signal line is -8

12/15/15; 1:57 PM EST = +4; signal line is -8 but algorithm remains short

12/15/15; 1:27 PM EST = -12; signal line is -8

12/15/15; 1:03 PM EST = +4; signal line is -7 but algorithm remains short

12/15/15; 9:39 AM EST = -12; signal line is -7

12/14/15; 9:36 AM EST = -28; signal line is -6

12/13/15; 7:00 PM EST = -44; signal line is -4

12/11/15; 3:59 PM EST = -44 signal line is -2

12/11/15; 10:00 AM EST = -28; signal line is +0

12/10/15; 3:56 PM EST = -27; signal line is +2

12/10/15; 3:08 PM EST = -13; signal line is +3

12/10/15; 2:33 PM EST = +1; signal line is +4

12/10/15; 12:55 PM EST = -13; signal line is +4

12/10/15; 12:16 PM EST = -27; signal line is +4

12/10/15; 10:31 AM EST = -13; signal line is +5

12/9/15; 12:27 PM EST = -27; signal line is +4

12/9/15; 12:25 PM EST = -13; signal line is +5; go short 2050; (Benchmark SPX for 2015 = -0.4%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.9%; Keybot algo for 2015 = +12.0%)(Actual results this trade = -0.9%; Actual results for 2015 = +20.6%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short as the bulls and bears fight for control ahead of the Fed decision. The stock market is a coin flip. The model was in position to go long but the internal parameters would not latch to permit the move. The imminent turn warning is in the title line. A pre-scheduled number prints before the bell.

Financials are the key to market direction for Wednesday. Watch the XLF 24.09 bull-bear line in the sand. Price is at 24.05 only four pennies in the bear camp causing market negativity. As the banks go, so go the markets. Market bears will be in great shape if the XLF continues to drop from here. Market bulls will win if the XLF moves above 24.09. If the XLF moves above 24.09, and the SPX above the 2050-2054 area, Keybot will likely flip to the long side.

For the SPX on Wednesday starting at 2043, the bulls need to push above 2054 to create an upside acceleration to 2060+ in a flash. The bears need to push below 2026 to accelerate the downside, a formidable task, so the bears will focus on pushing XLF lower which will provide them victory. Watch XLF 24.09; it will dictate market direction.

12/20/15; 7:00 PM EST =

12/16/15; 9:00 AM EST =

12/15/15; 3:37 PM EST = -12; signal line is -8

12/15/15; 1:57 PM EST = +4; signal line is -8 but algorithm remains short

12/15/15; 1:27 PM EST = -12; signal line is -8

12/15/15; 1:03 PM EST = +4; signal line is -7 but algorithm remains short

12/15/15; 9:39 AM EST = -12; signal line is -7

12/14/15; 9:36 AM EST = -28; signal line is -6

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short moving into the Tuesday session. Keybot printed one number in the Monday session as was anticipated due to utilities supplying some bullish strength. The algo number remains 22 points under the signal line keeping market bears in control of the stock market.

For Tuesday, the bulls need SOX above 660.90, SPX above 2052, and/or VIX under 19.27. Any two of the three will likely cause Keybot to flip to the long side. If only one or none of the three flip to the long side, then any stock market rally will likely be short-lived and stocks will roll back over to the down side. Market bulls need at least two of the parameters to turn bullish to prove they have the beans to take stocks higher.

For the SPX starting at 2022, the bulls only need one point of upside and an acceleration higher will occur. S&P futures are up +17 two hours before the opening bell so this scenario is already in play. If an upside orgy occurs, watch that key SPX 2050-2053 area where price will likely make an important bounce or die decision. The SPX may choose to sit at this level when Fed Chair Yellen determines the fate of all global stock, currency and bond markets tomorrow afternoon.

The bears need to retrace yesterday's move and push the SPX under 1993 to regain their mojo, a formidable task especially with futures through the roof, so instead, bears will focus on keeping chips (SOX) weak and volatility (VIX) elevated.

12/16/15; 9:00 AM EST =

12/14/15; 9:36 AM EST = -28; signal line is -6

12/13/15; 7:00 PM EST = -44; signal line is -4

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant is bearish to begin the new week of trading. The bears took no prisoners on Friday slapping the bulls around like rag dolls. The algo number is 40 points under the signal line so the bears are cruising but in these markets things can change quickly. The VIX is elevated above 24 so the intraday and day-to-day moves in stock prices, up and down, will become larger and more violent.

An important bull-bear level for utilities this week is UTIL 542. Price is now at 551 so the bulls are going to receive a feather in their cap at the opening bell. However, the algo number will remain at -28 well under the signal line. Bears need UTIL to drop under 542 to create more broad market selling pressure.

Placing utilities to the side, Monday will be a fight between chips and retail stocks which will most greatly impact broad market direction. Watch SOX 660.90 now at 660.78 on the bear side, albeit by 12 pennies, creating market bearishness. Watch RTH 77.21 now at 77.72 in the bull camp creating upside for the stock market. Bears need RTH under 77.21 to continue downward carnage in the stock market. Bulls need SOX above 660.90 to stage a relief rally for equities. Since SOX sits directly on the bulll-bear line, semiconductors are the key to Monday. As chips go, so go the markets.

For the SPX starting at 2012, the bears need three points lower, to push under 2009 and the path to sub 2000 will occur quickly. The bulls need to retrace Friday's losses to regain their mojo, a formidable task, so instead bulls will focus on pushing semi's, retail stocks and utilities higher to try and stabilize markets. Keybot prints one pre-scheduled number this week on Wednesday morning.

12/20/15; 7:00 PM EST =

12/16/15; 9:00 AM EST =

12/13/15; 7:00 PM EST = -44; signal line is -4

12/11/15; 3:59 PM EST = -44 signal line is -2

12/11/15; 10:00 AM EST = -28; signal line is +0

12/10/15; 3:56 PM EST = -27; signal line is +2

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains on the short side heading into the Friday session. The algo was very active in the Thursday session printing six numbers. The bulls were using volatility and the SPX 2053 level to fight their way higher. Financials went higher with XLF at 24.21-24.23, the level the algo calls out, and then price was spanked down. The bulls did not have the juice to push XLF higher. Isn't it amazing the algo can identify these parameters and levels before they occur?

The bears remain in control. The algo number is 29 points under the signal line. Watch SPX 2052-2053 a very key level. The stock market will be in a cyclical bear market for weeks and months ahead if the SPX remains under 2052 and lower. Watch VIX 18.50. Bulls got nothing unless they push the VIX under 18.50.

For Friday for the SPX starting at 2052, the bulls need to push above 2068 to accelerate the upside. The bears need to push under 2046 to accelerate the downside. A move through 2047-2067 is sideways action to end the week. S&P futures are tanking -18 about 90 minutes before the opening bell. Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number at 10 AM.

A weak start is on tap, however, if markets recover and the SPX moves above 2068, and VIX under 18.50, Keybot will likely flip long.

12/13/15; 7:00 PM EST =

12/11/15; 10:00 AM EST =

12/10/15; 3:56 PM EST = -27; signal line is +2

12/10/15; 3:08 PM EST = -13; signal line is +3

12/10/15; 2:33 PM EST = +1; signal line is +4

12/10/15; 12:55 PM EST = -13; signal line is +4

12/10/15; 12:16 PM EST = -27; signal line is +4

12/10/15; 10:31 AM EST = -13; signal line is +5

12/9/15; 12:27 PM EST = -27; signal line is +4

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips short a short time ago at SPX 2050. The algo number is currently 31 points under the signal line. Watch the SPX 2052-2053 level as an important bull-bear line in the sand. Ditto VIX 18.50. Ditto XLF 24.23. Financials failed, then volatility, then the SPX 2053 level taking the broad stock market lower and flipping Keybot to the short side.

For the last trade, the model logs its third loss in a row with both the computer program and actual trading losing about -1%. The losses are marginal and Keybot remains strongly higher on the year with about three weeks of trading remaining. The benchmark SPX index is negative on the year. Keybot exited SPY and entered SH staying with the single ETF's due to the whipsaw volatility. The algo will employ single ETF's until early January (when a 35-day timing period ends) where it will resume trading 2x ETF's.

Watch SPX 2053 which would signal the all-clear for bulls and an upside rally. The stock market remains in trouble under SPX 2053 which is a 'cliff' level for the stock market. The bears are driving the bus. As always remain alert for a whipsaw back to the long side. With the VIX (volatility) rising, the intraday and day to day price swings in the major indexes (SPX, INDU, COMPQ, RUT) will become larger and more violent.

12/11/15; 10:00 AM EST =

12/9/15; 12:27 PM EST = -27; signal line is +4

12/9/15; 12:25 PM EST = -13; signal line is +5; go short 2050; (Benchmark SPX for 2015 = -0.4%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.9%; Keybot algo for 2015 = +12.0%)(Actual results this trade = -0.9%; Actual results for 2015 = +20.6%)

12/9/15; 11:25 AM EST = +1; signal line is +5 but algorithm remains long

12/9/15; 9:43 AM EST = +17; signal line is +5

12/9/15; 9:36 AM EST = +1; signal line is +5 but algorithm remains long

12/8/15; 3:50 PM EST = +17; signal line is +5

12/8/15; 3:31 PM EST = +1; signal line is +4 but algorithm remains long

12/6/15; 7:00 PM EST = +17; signal line is +4

12/4/15; 9:48 AM EST = +17; signal line is +3; go long 2069; (Benchmark SPX for 2015 = +0.5%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.2%; Keybot algo for 2015 = +12.9%)(Actual results this trade = -2.2%; Actual results for 2015 = +21.5%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long as the SPX comes down to tag the 2053-2054 called out by the algorithm before the bell. Isn't it amazing the algorithm can identify the most important parameters with their exact price level before they occur? It is absolutely astounding. The SPX bounced off this area shortly after the opening bell and never looked back. The algo prints two numbers but remains long.

The SPX 2052.82 level remains very key. Also VIX 18.50. Market bears were not able to push under SPX 2053, and hold it, or VIX above 18.50, so the bears got nothing. Interestingly, however, financials collapse late in the day creating negativity. Financials are the entire key for Wednesday so watch for any news on the banks overnight. XLF begins at 24.24 and 24.23 is the bull-bear line in the sand identified by Keybot. The XLF is only one single penny on the bull side. Whichever way finanicals go, the markets go. If XLF drops under 24.23 and the SPX drops under 2052, Keybot will likely flip short. If XLF remains above 24.24 and heads higher, the bears are toast and markets will rally higher all day.

For the SPX starting at 2064, the bulls need to touch the 2074 handle and the upside will accelerate quickly to 2080. The bears need to push under 2052 and stocks will be falling like a stone. A move through 2053-2073 is sideways action for Wednesday. Financials, XLF 24.23, hold the answer to stock market direction for Wednesday. The banks are the key.

12/13/15; 7:00 PM EST =

12/11/15; 10:00 AM EST =

12/8/15; 3:50 PM EST = +17; signal line is +5

12/8/15; 3:31 PM EST = +1; signal line is +4 but algorithm remains long

12/6/15; 7:00 PM EST = +17; signal line is +4

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long and did not print any numbers in the Monday session. Market bulls will benefit from higher utilities. Bears will benefit from the SPX dropping under 2054, and lower financials and higher volatility.

If the SPX drops under 2054, Keybot will likely flip short, hence the imminent turn notation is in the title line. For the SPX on Tuesday, starting at 2077, the bulls need to push above 2090 to accelerate the upside. The bears need to push under 2067 to accelerate the downside. A move through 2068-2089 is sideways action. The S&P futures are down 23 points about 90 minutes before the opening bell which would target that important SPX 2054 level. Bulls will be fine as long as they do not allow SPX 2054 to fail. Markets will be in trouble under SPX 2054.

12/13/15; 7:00 PM EST =

12/11/15; 10:00 AM EST =

12/6/15; 7:00 PM EST = +17; signal line is +4

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is long moving into the new week of trading. The bulls are driving the bus with the algo number 13 points above the signal line. The algo is not currently identifying any parameters that are on the verge of flipping sides to flip the model back to the short side but this can change in a heartbeat.

Generally, bears need higher volatility and lower financials. Bulls need higher copper and commodities which will float higher if the US dollar moves lower.

For the SPX starting at 2092, the bulls need to touch the 2094 handle, only two points higher, and bingo, stocks will accelerate strongly higher above 2100 so watch the S&P futures overnight to see if the bulls can muster up a couple of positive points. The bears need to retrace Friday's huge upside move, a formidable task, so instead bears will focus on pushing volatility higher and financials and retail stocks lower to stall the upside stock market rally. Keybot prints one pre-scheduled number this week on Friday morning.

12/13/15; 7:00 PM EST =

12/11/15; 10:00 AM EST =

12/6/15; 7:00 PM EST = +17; signal line is +4

12/4/15; 9:48 AM EST = +17; signal line is +3; go long 2069; (Benchmark SPX for 2015 = +0.5%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.2%; Keybot algo for 2015 = +12.9%)(Actual results this trade = -2.2%; Actual results for 2015 = +21.5%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips back to the long side this morning at SPX 2069. Each day has a new surprise. Stocks rally and volatility drops. Markets are back in the bifurcated mode with economic and market parameters either strongly bullish or strongly bearish with no middle ground; very odd behavior. Stocks overtook yesterday's highs which is bullish.

On the last trade, which was only a few hours in duration, the algo program lost -1.2% and the actual trading lost -2.2%. The SPX benchmark index is now a hair positive on the year. It would not be surprising to see a whipsaw occur again in these wild markets. Keybot exited the losing SDS trade and, since a whipsaw occurs, the model drops into a single ETF phase that will likely continue for the next 35 days, and rotates into SPY (long ETF reflecting the S&P 500). The beat goes on with the bulls back in the driver's seat. The algo number is only 14 points above the signal line.

12/6/15; 7:00 PM EST =

12/4/15; 9:48 AM EST = +17; signal line is +3; go long 2069; (Benchmark SPX for 2015 = +0.5%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.2%; Keybot algo for 2015 = +12.9%)(Actual results this trade = -2.2%; Actual results for 2015 = +21.5%)

12/4/15; 9:36 AM EST = +17; signal line is +1 but algorithm remains short

12/4/15; 9:00 AM EST = +3; signal line is -1 but algorithm remains short

12/3/15; 3:59 PM EST = +3; signal line is -2 but algorithm remains short

12/3/15; 2:45 PM EST = -11; signal line is -3; go short 2045; (Benchmark SPX for 2015 = -0.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.9%; Keybot algo for 2015 = +14.1%)(Actual results this trade = -1.7%; Actual results for 2015 = +23.7%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the short side this afternoon at SPX 2045. The move was a result of the ECB rate decision and the central bank failing to increase the monthly QE purchases. The SPX dropped a huge 43 handles intraday. The Monthly Jobs Report is tomorrow so the markets are a coin-flip and prone to another wild reaction like today either strongly up or strongly down. The algo wants to flip back to the long side with the algo number 5 points above the signal line but the programming rules will not currently allow the whipsaw back to the bull side.

The model will likely remain short to finish the week unless a huge upside day occurs. Volatility, the SPX and financials are causing the market unrest. For Friday, the bears need VIX above 18.46 and/or XLF under 24.10 and that will prove that down is the direction forward for stocks. The bulls need to push the SPX above 2052.45 (now at 2049.62) and that will confirm that the upside rally is back in business.

For the SPX starting at 2050, the bears can accelerate the downside if the 2042 level fails. The bulls need to push above 2085 to regain their mojo so instead the bulls will focus on pushing volatility lower and the SPX above 2052 and financials higher.

On the last trade, the algo program loses -1% and the actual trading loses -1.7%. Keybot exits SSO and enters SDS. Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number in the morning before the opening bell.

12/6/15; 7:00 PM EST =

12/4/15; 9:00 AM EST =

12/3/15; 3:59 PM EST = +3; signal line is -2 but algorithm remains short

12/3/15; 2:45 PM EST = -11; signal line is -3; go short 2045; (Benchmark SPX for 2015 = -0.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.9%; Keybot algo for 2015 = +14.1%)(Actual results this trade = -1.7%; Actual results for 2015 = +23.7%)

12/3/15; 2:32 PM EST = -11; signal line is -4 but algorithm remains long

12/3/15; 2:27 PM EST = +3; signal line is -5

12/3/15; 2:19 PM EST = +17; signal line is -7

12/3/15; 2:09 PM EST = +3; signal line is -9

11/30/15; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +17; signal line is -10

11/29/15; 7:00 PM EST = +17; signal line is -11

11/25/15; 10:00 AM EST = +17; signal line is -11

11/24/15; 10:00 AM EST = +16; signal line is -11

11/22/15; 7:00 PM EST = +19; signal line is -11

11/18/15; 11:19 AM EST = +19; signal line is -10; go long 2063; (Benchmark SPX for 2015 = +0.2%)(Keybot algo this trade = +1.5%; Keybot algo for 2015 = +15.0%)(Actual results this trade = +1.8%; Actual results for 2015 = +25.4%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long idling along without printing any numbers this week thus far except for the pre-scheduled EOM number on Monday evening. The bulls are cruising with the algo number 27 points above the signal line.

Markets are in limbo ahead of the important ECB decision tomorrow morning followed by the OPEC oil meeting and US Monthly Jobs Report on Friday morning.

The stock market remains bifurcated with a firm camp of bullish parameters fighting a firm camp of bearish indicators. Equities can only move higher with gains in utilities, copper, commodities and the NYA Index. If these parameters remain weak, the upside rally should stall. Bears need higher  volatility or they got nothing.

For the SPX starting Wednesday at 2103, the bulls need any smidge of positivity in S&P futures and the SPX will accelerate higher towards 2110 after the opening bell. S&P futures are +3 three hours before the opening bell. The bears need to push under 2083 to accelerate the downside, a formidable task, so instead bears will simply focus on pushing volatility higher to stop the upside rally. A move through 2084-2102 is sideways action.

12/6/15; 7:00 PM EST =

12/4/15; 9:00 AM EST =

11/30/15; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +17; signal line is -10

11/29/15; 7:00 PM EST = +17; signal line is -11