Friday, December 4, 2015

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips back to the long side this morning at SPX 2069. Each day has a new surprise. Stocks rally and volatility drops. Markets are back in the bifurcated mode with economic and market parameters either strongly bullish or strongly bearish with no middle ground; very odd behavior. Stocks overtook yesterday's highs which is bullish.

On the last trade, which was only a few hours in duration, the algo program lost -1.2% and the actual trading lost -2.2%. The SPX benchmark index is now a hair positive on the year. It would not be surprising to see a whipsaw occur again in these wild markets. Keybot exited the losing SDS trade and, since a whipsaw occurs, the model drops into a single ETF phase that will likely continue for the next 35 days, and rotates into SPY (long ETF reflecting the S&P 500). The beat goes on with the bulls back in the driver's seat. The algo number is only 14 points above the signal line.

12/6/15; 7:00 PM EST =
12/4/15; 9:48 AM EST = +17; signal line is +3; go long 2069; (Benchmark SPX for 2015 = +0.5%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.2%; Keybot algo for 2015 = +12.9%)(Actual results this trade = -2.2%; Actual results for 2015 = +21.5%)
12/4/15; 9:36 AM EST = +17; signal line is +1 but algorithm remains short
12/4/15; 9:00 AM EST = +3; signal line is -1 but algorithm remains short
12/3/15; 3:59 PM EST = +3; signal line is -2 but algorithm remains short
12/3/15; 2:45 PM EST = -11; signal line is -3; go short 2045; (Benchmark SPX for 2015 = -0.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.9%; Keybot algo for 2015 = +14.1%)(Actual results this trade = -1.7%; Actual results for 2015 = +23.7%)

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