Wednesday, December 16, 2015

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is long from SPX 2059 after printing a very rare intraday whipsaw day. The wild market action verifies an ongoing intense battle between bulls and bears. For now, the bulls are winning but this may change tomorrow. For Thursday, the market bears need the SPX under 2053 and/or the VIX above 19.15, otherwise, the bulls will likely keep floating the stock market higher.

For the SPX starting at 2073 on Thursday, the bulls need to touch the 2077 handle and boom, the upside will accelerate to 2080+ quickly. The bears need to retrace Wednesday's big move higher to regain their mojo, a formidable task, so instead bears will focus on pushing the SPX lower and volatility higher.

The whipsaw trades are marginal losses. The benchmark SPX is completely dead flat on the year at the 2059 entry point on the current long trade. The algo has logged six losses in a row but they are all marginal and the program remains up +11.1% this year and the actual trading up +19.6% with 9 trading days renaming in 2015. The algo continues to use single ETF's due to the whipsaw action and will remain in this mode until 1/21/16, at a minimum. Keybot exited the short trade which was SH and entered a long trade with DIA. The whipsaw forced an end to that trade and Keybot exited DIA and entered DOG. This trade was also short-lived. Keybot exited DOG and entered IWM.

The bulls are driving the bus but the caravan is careening down the boulevard. Markets remain erratic and unstable. Anything can happen.

12/20/15; 7:00 PM EST =
12/16/15; 2:10 PM EST = +32; signal line is -7; go long 2059; (Benchmark SPX for 2015 = +0.0%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.6%; Keybot algo for 2015 = +11.1%)(Actual results this trade = -0.5%; Actual results for 2015 = +19.6%)
12/16/15; 1:57 PM EST = +18; signal line is -8 but algorithm remains short
12/16/15; 11:39 PM EST = +4; signal line is -8 but algorithm remains short
12/16/15; 11:24 PM EST = -12; signal line is -8; go short 2047; (Benchmark SPX for 2015 = -0.6%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.2%; Keybot algo for 2015 = +11.7%)(Actual results this trade = -0.4%; Actual results for 2015 = +20.1%)
12/16/15; 10:35 PM EST = +4; signal line is -7; go long 2051; (Benchmark SPX for 2015 = -0.4%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.1%; Keybot algo for 2015 = +11.9%)(Actual results this trade = -0.1%; Actual results for 2015 = +20.5%)
12/16/15; 9:43 AM EST = +18; signal line is -6 but algorithm remains short
12/16/15; 9:36 AM EST = +32; signal line is -7 but algorithm remains short
12/16/15; 9:00 AM EST = -12; signal line is -8
12/15/15; 3:37 PM EST = -12; signal line is -8
12/15/15; 1:57 PM EST = +4; signal line is -8 but algorithm remains short
12/15/15; 1:27 PM EST = -12; signal line is -8
12/15/15; 1:03 PM EST = +4; signal line is -7 but algorithm remains short
12/15/15; 9:39 AM EST = -12; signal line is -7
12/14/15; 9:36 AM EST = -28; signal line is -6
12/13/15; 7:00 PM EST = -44; signal line is -4
12/11/15; 3:59 PM EST = -44 signal line is -2
12/11/15; 10:00 AM EST = -28; signal line is +0
12/10/15; 3:56 PM EST = -27; signal line is +2
12/10/15; 3:08 PM EST = -13; signal line is +3
12/10/15; 2:33 PM EST = +1; signal line is +4
12/10/15; 12:55 PM EST = -13; signal line is +4
12/10/15; 12:16 PM EST = -27; signal line is +4
12/10/15; 10:31 AM EST = -13; signal line is +5
12/9/15; 12:27 PM EST = -27; signal line is +4
12/9/15; 12:25 PM EST = -13; signal line is +5; go short 2050; (Benchmark SPX for 2015 = -0.4%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.9%; Keybot algo for 2015 = +12.0%)(Actual results this trade = -0.9%; Actual results for 2015 = +20.6%)

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