STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short. Utilities and copper continue running the show over the last week or so. Note how UTIL tested the important 708.93 bull-bear line in the sand on Friday and remains above. The stock market will fall apart if UTIL drops below 708.93.

The bulls will mount a strong recovery rally if copper rallies. Bulls need CPER above 17.15. If this occurs, Keybot will likely flip to the long side. The move in copper will have to be about +2.5% higher to reward the bulls.

If UTIL remains above 709, and CPER below 17.15, the stock market will chop sideways with a very slight upward bias.

Many global stock markets are already closed for the year. Monday, 12/31/18, is the last day of trading for 2018; EOM, EOQ4, EOY2018. US markets are closed Tuesday for New Year's Day. Wednesday, 1/2/19, begins the 2019 trading year.

On Tuesday, the Keybot the Quant algorithm will be re-zeroed for the 2019 trading year and the 2018 performance will be assessed. Keybot the Quant smoked most other algorithms on Wall Street in 2018. The quant's outperformance is not surprising. The model could not care less whether the stock market goes up or down. All Keybot sees is 1's and 0's. The model is programmed to take the smoothest path through the trading year always tracking the dominant trend, up or down.

12/31/18; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ4 EOH2 EOY2018 =

12/30/18; 7:00 PM EST = -36; signal line is -20

12/27/18; 3:59 PM EST = -36; signal line is -18

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short as the stock market stages a record-setting comeback rally intraday on Thursday. UTIL moves above the critical 709 level to 711 which creates upside joy for equities. However, the bears remain in control of the stock market with the algo number 18 points below the signal line. Things are getting interesting now. Bulls need stronger utes and copper and the two may be finally cooperating, hence the caution flag is out.

Bulls need CPER above 17.17 to create more upside strength for the stock market. Interestingly, even if copper turns bullish, Keybot may not flip long. If CPER comes up to 17.17, watch its behavior closely. If it oscillates above 17.17 for a while, then back below for a while, then back above, jogging above and below, that tells you the stock market will likely continue higher and begin mounting a strong relief rally higher and Keybot is likely ready to flip to the long side.

Bears need UTIL to fall back below 708.93 because pain and misery will immediately begin for stocks. There are only two trading days remaining in the year; today and Monday. Volume should be light. Continue watching copper and utilities.

12/31/18; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ4 EOH2 EOY2018 =

12/30/18; 7:00 PM EST =

12/27/18; 3:59 PM EST = -36; signal line is -18

12/27/18; 10:00 AM EST = -52; signal line is -17

12/24/18; 10:13 AM EST = -52; signal line is -15

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short as the bulls stage a humongous rally due to the uber negative sentiment. The bulls are all smiles patting each other on the back. However, the bulls need stronger copper and utilities; so far they got buptkis.

Bulls need UTIL above 708-709 pronto (now at 704), otherwise, stocks will roll back over into oblivion. Bulls need CPER above 17.18 (now at 16.88) which would also verify that a substantive relief rally has begun.

The bears are cruising with the algo number 37 points below the signal line. Keybot likely wants to see both the utes and copper above the levels indicated for the algo to flip long. Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number tomorrow morning.

12/30/18; 7:00 PM EST =

12/27/18; 10:00 AM EST =

12/24/18; 10:13 AM EST = -52; signal line is -15

12/23/18; 7:00 PM EST = -36; signal line is -14

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short as the new week of trading is set to begin. The bears are cruising with the algo number 22 points below the signal line. As the previous post explains, UTIL 736.88, UTIL 708 and CPER 17.27 will tell the market directional story. Watch utilities and copper.

Keybot prints one pre-scheduled number this week on Thursday. There are only five trading days remaining in the year. The Monday session, Christmas Eve, is a shortened session in the US. Markets are closed tomorrow for Christmas Day. Liquidity is thin so it will be another tricky week ahead. The beat goes on.

1/6/19; 7:00 PM EST =

1/4/19; 9:00 AM EST =

12/31/18; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ4 EOH2 EOY2018 =

12/30/18; 7:00 PM EST =

12/27/18; 10:00 AM EST =

12/23/18; 7:00 PM EST = -36; signal line is -14

12/21/18; 1:56 PM EST = -36; signal line is -13

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short. President Trump harpoons the stock market over the last couple days. A US partial government shutdown, that caused stock market angst, is underway.

The Friday session started out with bulls hopeful. Utilities jump strongly higher with UTIL above the key bull-bear levels which stops the stock market selling. However, bulls need stronger copper to mount a strong relief rally but copper was negative and sinking. This told you that the bulls do not have strength to push higher. Sure enough, the utes rolled over to the downside and the stock market slid down the rabbit hole printing the worst week in a couple decades. December is the worst month since the 1930's and the Great Depression.

Utes and copper remain a key focus of the algorithm which is now tracking the UTIL 736.88 and 708.35 levels, extremely important for all of next week, and CPER 17.27. Bulls need UTIL above 737 and CPER above 17.27 to mount a strong stock market relief rally.

If UTIL loses the 708 level, the stock market will likely crash a la 1929.

IF UTIL remains between 709 and 736, and CPER below 17.27, status quo, the stock market will likely chop sideways with a slight downward bias. However, anything can happen since the Keybot algorithm only sees 1's and 0's as the "Trump Shutdown," according to the democrats, plays out. Poor Santa Claus is stuck in the middle.

12/23/18; 7:00 PM EST =

12/21/18; 1:56 PM EST = -36; signal line is -13

12/21/18; 10:00 AM EST = -20; signal line is -11

12/21/18; 9:41 AM EST = -20; signal line is -10

12/20/18; 1:46 PM EST = -36; signal line is -10

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short. Utes move back into the bear camp which created more stock market weakness into the closing bell. The bears are cruising. Stock market weakness will continue if UTIL remains below 733.60.

Bulls need UTIL above 733.60 and CPER above 17.28. UTIL 736.88 is important for all of next week instead of 733.60 so watch how UTIL ends the Friday session since this will hint at stock market direction on Monday. Bulls need to push UTIL above 737 in the Friday session to prove that they can create a strong relief rally. Watch copper since bulls cannot gain upside acceleration without Dr Copper on their team.

12/23/18; 7:00 PM EST =

12/21/18; 10:00 AM EST =

12/20/18; 1:46 PM EST = -36; signal line is -10

12/20/18; 11:21 AM EST = -20; signal line is -10

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short as the stock market drama continues. The bears remain in charge with the algo number 10 points below the signal line. Steady negative news bites keep stocks weak. Fed Chairman Powell harpooned equities yesterday. President Trump started crushing markets today by not agreeing to sign a stop-gap bill to prevent a government shutdown. So there is lots of negativity and doom and gloom in the air.

Utilities remain bullish which are the bulls big hope. UTIL is at 734 above the critical 733.60 bull-bear level for all of this week but only above by pennies. Next week this key level changes to 736.88 so the bulls need to push utes higher as the week ends or that portends a weak stock market come Monday.

Bulls need to keep UTIL above 733.60 and must also push copper higher. Bulls need CPER above 17.28.

Bears need weaker utilities, UTIL under 733.60, and stocks will collapse. Ho, whoa, whoa. UTIL is now printing 733.63........

12/23/18; 7:00 PM EST =

12/21/18; 10:00 AM EST =

12/20/18; 11:21 AM EST = -20; signal line is -10

12/19/18; 1:03 PM EST = -36; signal line is -11

12/19/18; 12:46 PM EST = -20; signal line is -11

12/18/18; 12:39 PM EST = -36; signal line is -11

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short and the algo becomes more active today printing five numbers including the pre-market pre-scheduled number. The algo number is 25 points below the signal line so the bears are happy and throwing confetti.

You can see the battle at the UTIL 733.60 bull-bear level that is ongoing. Bulls need UTIL above 733.60 while bears are happy with UTIL sitting on the underside.

Bulls need stronger copper but futures collapse -3% today. The bulls are trying to push the semiconductors higher to gain strength from the chips. Bulls need SOX above 1217.

12/23/18; 7:00 PM EST =

12/21/18; 10:00 AM EST =

12/18/18; 12:39 PM EST = -36; signal line is -11

12/18/18; 12:24 PM EST = -20; signal line is -10

12/18/18; 11:06 AM EST = -36; signal line is -9

12/18/18; 9:36 AM EST = -20; signal line is -9

12/18/18; 9:00 AM EST = -36; signal line is -8

12/17/18; 3:29 PM EST = -36; signal line is -7

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains bearish as the bears spank the bulls to begin the new week of trading. Utilities failed. UTIL slips below the critical 733.60 bull-bear line in the sand creating and verifying today's stock market negativity. The bears are cruising along with the algo number 29 points below the signal line. The bulls are begging for mercy but they never showed the bears mercy during the near-one-decade central banker induced stock market rally.

If UTIL moves above 733.60, the stock market selling will stop and prices will stabilize sideways. Bulls still need higher copper; CPER above 17.33.

Bears need UTIL to remain below 733.60 and the stock market mayhem and carnage will continue going forward. If UTIL 709 fails, there is a high probability the stock market will crash. Thus, watch utes and copper the two most important parameters in the stock market currently.

12/21/18; 10:00 AM EST =

12/18/18; 9:00 AM EST =

12/17/18; 3:29 PM EST = -36; signal line is -7

12/16/18; 7:00 PM EST = -20; signal line is -6

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is short as the new week of trading is set to begin. The algo did not print any numbers last week. Parameters remain very bearish sans utilities. The bears remain in control with the algo number 14 points below the signal line.

Bears need weaker utilities to continue the downside fun. Bears need UTIL under 733.60 (now up at 758) to create long-term market carnage. The 733.60 number is valid for all of this week and then it will change to 736.88 for all of the following week. Thus, the UTIL 733-737 level can be considered an important support gauntlet into year end. The stock market could potentially crash if this UTIL 733-737 level fails into the new year; especially if UTIL then fails at 708.

Bulls need to keep utes buoyant. It appears, looking at Keybot's data, that copper remains the key for the bulls. Stronger copper will stop the downward slide in stocks. Bulls need CPER above 17.34 (now at 17.22) which will signal that the stock market selling is over. Let's see, that is 12 cents, or a +0.7% increase needed in copper to make the bulls happy. Thus, watch the copper futures overnight to see if the bulls can rally the red metal +0.7%, or not. It will tell you the story for the US stock market on Monday.

If copper turns bullish, consider the imminent turn to the upside to be in play and if the SPX would move above 2635, Keybot the Quant will likely flip long.

Keybot prints two pre-scheduled numbers this week; one on Tuesday morning and one on Friday morning. Watch to see if copper shines higher, or, if it is tarnished and shunned.

12/23/18; 7:00 PM EST =

12/21/18; 10:00 AM EST =

12/18/18; 9:00 AM EST =

12/16/18; 7:00 PM EST = -20; signal line is -6

12/9/18; 7:00 PM EST = -20; signal line is -6

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short and the whole week goes by without the algorithm printing one number. That is a rarity but it does occur now and then. The market strangeness continues. Friday was a huge flush lower for stocks, however, the utilities remain strongly positive. If this was a long-term downturn, you would expect the utes to be far lower.

The bulls keep trying to push copper higher so they can put a floor in the stock market selling. They only manage to move it sideways.

12/16/18; 7:00 PM EST =

12/9/18; 7:00 PM EST = -20; signal line is -6

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short. The algorithm idles along all week not yet printing any numbers. The bears remain in control with the algo number 14 points below the signal line.

Copper remains key. Bulls need CPER above 17.34 to prove that they can stop the stock market selling. Copper futures are flat to lower. No, check that. Copper futures turn a hair positive up +0.1% as this message is typed 5-1/2 hours before the Wednesday regular stock market trading session. The bears are growling but S&P futures are starting to receive a bid higher. The beat goes on.

12/16/18; 7:00 PM EST =

12/9/18; 7:00 PM EST = -20; signal line is -6

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short as the new week of trading is set to begin. The bears are in charge with the algo number 14 points below the signal line. Friday was bear carnage.

The bulls are hurting. Bulls will likely try to push copper higher on Monday to try and start a relief rally in the stock market. Bulls need CPER above 17.35 (now at 17.23). Thus, watch the copper futures overnight to see if they are up or down and if up, if they are over +0.7% higher. That will tell you about the stock market direction when Monday begins trading in the regular session. If CPER moves above 17.35, consider the imminent turn to be in play for the algorithm, however, the SPX will likely need a rally above 2708 on Monday to flip long.

Utilities are in the stratosphere. UTIL is at 754. Bears need this to drop to 726.41 any day this week to create further weakness in stocks. Keybot does not print any pre-scheduled numbers this week. Copper should be key on Monday.

12/16/18; 7:00 PM EST =
12/9/18; 7:00 PM EST = -20; signal line is -6
12/7/18; 10:00 AM EST = -20; signal line is -5

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short as the carnage occurs on Wall Street. There is blood in the streets. Two traders, unable to deal with the turmoil, jumped from windows; fortunately they were on the ground floor. The bears remain in control of the stock market with the algo number 15 points below the signal line. The algo idles along quietly since Tuesday only printing the two pre-scheduled numbers yesterday morning.

Bulls will likely need stronger copper to stop the stock market selling and begin a relief rally.

Despite the stock market bearishness, it is interesting to see utilities run higher. Bears need weaker utilities if they want to create a sustainable market malaise for many months. The price action in markets is historic. Markets remain erratic and unstable. The S&P 500 is negative on the year.

12/9/18; 7:00 PM EST =
12/7/18; 10:00 AM EST = -20; signal line is -5

12/7/18; 9:00 AM EST = -20; signal line is -5

12/4/18; 12:11 PM EST = -20; signal line is -6

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the short side a short time ago at SPX 2767. Markets obviously remain erratic and unstable. The bulls were on easy street but the stock market deteriorated after the US-China trade deal is looking like smoke and mirrors. The yield curve is inverting spooking investors. It is one heck of a turnaround.

The banks are in an all-out free fall down -3% as a sector. Utilities catapult higher. The bulls are going to need to push the SPX back above 2752 to steady the ship. Price is at the lows of the day as this message is typed at 1:37 PM EST. The SPX is at 2713 a 77-point drubbing, down -2.8% on the day; a mini-crash.

On the last trade that lasted about a week, the Keybot computer program gains +1.7% and the actual trading gains +3.5%. The S&P 500 benchmark is up +3.5% on the year with only 16 days trading remaining in the year. The algo program is up +7% this year and the actual trading is up over +19%. Keybot is a smart robot. US markets are closed tomorrow for the funeral of former President George HW Bush; Bush 41. Keybot exits SSO and enters SDS remaining in the 2x ETF's. The beat goes on.

12/9/18; 7:00 PM EST =
12/7/18; 10:00 AM EST =

12/7/18; 9:00 AM EST =
12/4/18; 12:11 PM EST = -20; signal line is -6
12/4/18; 11:32 AM EST = -6; signal line is -6; go short 2767; (Benchmark SPX for 2018 = +3.5%)(Keybot algorithm program this trade = +1.7%; Keybot algo for 2018 = +6.8%)(Actual results this trade = +3.5%; Actual trading results for 2018 = +19.2%)
12/4/18; 11:19 AM EST = +10; signal line is -7
12/4/18; 10:59 AM EST = +26; signal line is -8
12/4/18; 9:58 AM EST = +42; signal line is -9
12/3/18; 9:36 AM EST = +58; signal line is -11

12/2/18; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +10; signal line is -15

11/30/18; 3:13 PM EST = +10; signal line is -16

11/30/18; 11:43 AM EST = -4; signal line is -17
11/30/18; 11:16 AM EST = -20; signal line is -18 but algorithm remains long

11/29/18; 3:11 PM EST = -4; signal line is -18

11/29/18; 2:59 PM EST = +10; signal line is -19
11/28/18; 12:09 PM EST = -4; signal line is -19; go long 2721; (Benchmark SPX for 2018 = +1.8%)(Keybot algorithm program this trade = +1.5%; Keybot algo for 2018 = +5.1%)(Actual results this trade = +2.6%; Actual trading results for 2018 = +15.7%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long as stocks rocket launch higher in the Monday session. The happy talk from the Trump-Xi meeting on the weekend creates an orgy of bullish joy. The algo number spikes to +58 so the bulls are in full control of the markets with the algo number 69 points above the signal line.

Bulls will continue the stock market rally if NYA moves above 12668 (now at 12577). VIX below 15.83 will launch the stock market into the stratosphere.

Bears need the NYA and VIX to remain in the bear camp and at the same time need stronger banks. Bears need XLF below 26.84 (now at 27.14) and a visible leg lower in the stock market will occur. There are a lot of moving parts right now with many parameters in play. The bulls are on easy street cruising down the road with their feet up on the dashboard. Markets remain erratic and unstable.

12/7/18; 10:00 AM EST =

12/7/18; 9:00 AM EST =

12/3/18; 9:36 AM EST = +58; signal line is -11

12/2/18; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +10; signal line is -15

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long with the new week of trading set to begin. The bulls are driving the bus with the algo number 25 points above the signal line. The bulls are cruising. The algo number should jump even higher in the opening minutes of trading Monday morning because UTIL will be above 731.08 an important bull-bear level for the week ahead.

The bulls are on easy street with UTIL above 731.08. Going forward, you can tell that the upside stock market rally has additional legs higher if either SOX moves above 1246 or RTH above 104.26. The upside in equities may stall if the chips and retail stocks do not join the bullish party.

The bears need UTIL to drop below 731, CPER below 17.34, XLF below 26.79 and/or SPX below 2752. There are lots of moving parts in the market right now. The S&P 500 begins at 2760 so pay close attention to that 2752 level; bulls are happy above 2752 while bears will begin growling strongly under 2752.

Keybot prints two pre-scheduled numbers this week both on Friday morning. President's Trump and Xi agree to delay further implementation of increased tariffs so the markets should view that positively.

12/9/18; 7:00 PM EST =
12/7/18; 10:00 AM EST =
12/7/18; 9:00 AM EST =
12/2/18; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +10; signal line is -15

11/30/18; 3:13 PM EST = +10; signal line is -16

November Publication of the Daily Chronology of Global Markets and World Economics 2018-11 is Available from Amazon

The November publication of the Daily Chronology of Global Markets and World Economics 2018-11 is available from Amazon. The October crash is explained in real-time as it occurs in the 2018-10 publication. November is sideways choppiness with AAPL crashing -18% and oil crashing -22%.

The Daily Chronology of Global Markets and World Economics 2018-12 for December is tentatively set for publication by Amazon on Tuesday, 1/1/19.

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant is on the long side as the bulls and bears battle. The algo is tracking copper, utilities and banks. The key SPX 2751-2752 level was breached to the upside. Stock market bulls cheer and throw confetti since this level is the demarcation line between a cyclical bull and cyclical bear market. The fight will likely continue at this level.

The bulls are in charge with the algo number 26 points above the signal line. Utilities will likely add more bullish joy on Monday morning. UTIL 731.08 is a key bull-bear line in the sand for all of next week and utes are in position to blow up through here on Monday's opening bell.

The bulls are walking around with their chests puffed out. The meeting between President's Trump and Xi begins shortly (Saturday) and the two leaders will either be dancing the tango come later this evening, or, both will be doing the two-step out opposite doors. Obviously, the results of the meeting will move markets on Sunday evening and Monday. November is in the bag. Trading for December begins Monday. The Sunday and end-of-month (EOM) November pre-scheduled number prints tomorrow.

12/2/18; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

11/30/18; 3:13 PM EST = +10; signal line is -16
11/30/18; 11:43 AM EST = -4; signal line is -17

11/30/18; 11:16 AM EST = -20; signal line is -18 but algorithm remains long
11/29/18; 3:11 PM EST = -4; signal line is -18

11/29/18; 2:59 PM EST = +10; signal line is -19

11/28/18; 12:09 PM EST = -4; signal line is -19; go long 2721; (Benchmark SPX for 2018 = +1.8%)(Keybot algorithm program this trade = +1.5%; Keybot algo for 2018 = +5.1%)(Actual results this trade = +2.6%; Actual trading results for 2018 = +15.7%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the long side at SPX 2721 on Wednesday at lunch time as Federal Reserve Chairman Powell began flapping his dovish wings at New York's Economic Club. Copper and banks sky  rocket higher creating upside euphoria in the stock market. Short covering adds more fuel to the upside bull fire.

The Wednesday rally is the strongest since March. The SPX comes back up to 2743 only 8 points from the very important 2751 bull-bear line in the sand that dictates a cyclical bull market from a cyclical bear. If the SPX moves above 2751, the stock market will catapult higher. S&P futures are down -10 about 2-1/2 hours before the opening bell for the Thursday regular session.

The bears need weaker copper and banks. Bears need CPER under 17.34 and XLF below 26.80. Either parameter turning bearish will stop the upside rally in equities and place Keybot in position to likely flip back to the short side.

Bulls win big with SPX above 2751. Bears win big with either CPER below 17.34 and/or XLF below 26.80. Copper futures are trading down -0.4%.

On the last trade that lasted about 2-1/2 weeks, the Keybot algo program gains +1.5% and the actual trading is up +2.6%. Keybot exits SDS and enters SSO remaining in the 2x ETF's unless a whipsaw occurs. The benchmark S&P 500 is up about +2% this year with only one month of trading remaining. The Keybot the Quant algorithm program is up +5% this year and the actual trading is up +16% this year. That is an excellent yearly return especially in this environment so it would be great if it ended the year at this level.

There are 21 trading days remaining in 2018. November ends tomorrow (EOM). December trading begins on Monday, 12/3/18. SPX 2751 tells the market story regardless of whether you are a short-term trader or long-term investor; it is the demarcation line between bullish glory and bearish misery.

12/2/18; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

11/28/18; 12:09 PM EST = -4; signal line is -19; go long 2721; (Benchmark SPX for 2018 = +1.8%)(Keybot algorithm program this trade = +1.5%; Keybot algo for 2018 = +5.1%)(Actual results this trade = +2.6%; Actual trading results for 2018 = +15.7%)

11/28/18; 11:17 AM EST = -20; signal line is -20 but algorithm remains short

11/27/18; 10:00 AM EST = -36; signal line is -19

11/25/18; 7:00 PM EST = -36; signal line is -19
11/23/18; 12:49 PM EST = -36; signal line is -18

11/21/18; 10:52 AM EST = -20; signal line is -17
11/21/18; 10:00 AM EST = -4; signal line is -17 but algorithm remains short

11/21/18; 9:36 AM EST = -4; signal line is -16 but algorithm remains short

11/20/18; 12:38 PM EST = -20; signal line is -16

11/20/18; 10:59 AM EST = -4; signal line is -15 but algorithm remains short

11/20/18; 10:15 AM EST = -20; signal line is -14

11/20/18; 9:00 AM EST = -4; signal line is -12 but algorithm remains short

11/18/18; 7:00 PM EST = -4; signal line is -11 but algorithm remains short

11/16/18; 3:21 PM EST = -4; signal line is -11 but algorithm remains short

11/16/18; 12:36 PM EST = -20; signal line is -10

11/16/18; 11:45 AM EST = -36; signal line is -9

11/16/18; 10:16 AM EST = -20; signal line is -6

11/16/18; 10:01 AM EST = -36; signal line is -6

11/16/18; 9:53 AM EST = -20; signal line is -5
11/16/18; 9:51 AM EST = -4; signal line is -5 but algorithm remains short

11/16/18; 9:36 AM EST = -20; signal line is -5

11/14/18; 11:05 AM EST = -36; signal line is -4

11/14/18; 10:57 AM EST = -20; signal line is -3

11/14/18; 10:35 AM EST = -36; signal line is -3

11/14/18; 10:04 AM EST = -20; signal line is -2

11/14/18; 9:36 AM EST = -36; signal line is -2

11/13/18; 1:54 PM EST = -20; signal line is -1

11/13/18; 1:44 PM EST = -4; signal line is -1

11/13/18; 11:42 AM EST = -20; signal line is -2

11/13/18; 11:21 AM EST = -4; signal line is -2

11/13/18; 9:57 AM EST = -20; signal line is -2

11/13/18; 9:42 AM EST = -4; signal line is -2

11/12/18; 3:56 PM EST = -20; signal line is -1
11/12/18; 10:58 AM EST = -4; signal line is +1

11/12/18; 9:50 AM EST = +10; signal line is +1 but algorithm remains short

11/12/18; 9:49 AM EST = -6; signal line is +2; go short 2761; (Benchmark SPX for 2018 = +3.3%)(Keybot algorithm program this trade = -0.8%; Keybot algo for 2018 = +3.6%)(Actual results this trade = -0.8%; Actual trading results for 2018 = +13.1%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains bearish as the stock market machinations continue. Copper fell into the bear camp on Friday creating the collapse in equities late in the holiday-shortened session. CPER ends the week at....... wait for it....... wait a little bit longer for it..... a bit longer...... 17.34; the exact number that Keybot called out ahead of time. There is no other Wall Street algorithm that can perform such a feat; Keybot is the best.

The bears are in control. If UTIL loses 706.85 (now at 720), it's Armageddon time. It is the last piece of the puzzle the bears need. You will see ugliness in the stock market that will knock your socks off. The selloff from October to now will look like child's play as equities collapse into free fall if UTIL loses 706.85.

Bulls need copper to jump back into the their camp if they want the market mayhem to stop. Bulls need CPER above 17.35 (now at 17.34) which will immediately halt the stock market selling. Watch the copper futures overnight which will dictate the direction of the stock market on Monday.

Bulls must keep UTIL above 706.85 or it is over for the stock market as mentioned above. For this week, the bulls must push UTIL above 744 to create bullishness in the stock market. That may be a tall order. For the first week in December, the UTIL 731 number will be key for all five of those days a much easier bar for the bulls to climb over. Thus, as the week ahead plays out, watch to see if UTIL wants to migrate higher and move above the 731 a week from now, or not.

Utilities and copper tell the market story to begin the new week of trading. Bears need weaker utilities which will create a potential stock market crash. Bulls need stronger copper and utilities to stop the market selling and create a relief rally.

Keybot prints one pre-scheduled number this week on Tuesday. The month ends on Friday (EOM) and December trading begins on Monday 12/3/18. There is 25 trading days remaining in 2018. CPER 17.35 and UTIL 706.83 dictate the path ahead for the stock market this week.

12/2/18; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

11/27/18; 10:00 AM EST =
11/25/18; 7:00 PM EST = -36; signal line is -19
11/23/18; 12:49 PM EST = -36; signal line is -18

11/21/18; 10:52 AM EST = -20; signal line is -17

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short. The algo came very close to flipping long on Friday, with the SPX coming up to test the 2669 level, that Keybot called out ahead of time, but then price collapsed. Utilities drop creating broad market weakness. Copper rallies creating lift to the markets.

The breakdown in utilities is gravely concerning. UTIL lost the important 723.51 level for this week ending the day at 719. The next key level to watch is UTIL 706.83. This is a trap-door for the stock market. If UTIL 706.83 fails, Armageddon begins. There would be a high likelihood that the stock market may flash crash. At a minimum, the S&P 500 will likely dump 30 handles in a heartbeat. Stock market bears win big if UTIL loses 706.83. Market bulls will recover and start a relief rally if they move UTIL back above 723.51.

Copper is helping the bulls. CPER is above 17.34, however, if CPER loses this level, the stock market will likely fall apart and crumble.

IF CPER loses 17.34 and UTIL loses 706.83, Goodnight Irene, Irene goodnight. If both turn bearish you will see carnage in the stock market that will be historic.

If copper remains in the bull camp, and UTIL moves above 723.51, the bulls are going to create a relief rally.

US markets are closed today for Thanksgiving Day feasts. The US stock market trades tomorrow in a shortened session from 9:30 AM EST to 1 PM EST.

Happy Thanksgiving to all. Do not forget about the poor and disadvantaged this holiday season.

11/25/18; 7:00 PM EST =

11/21/18; 10:52 AM EST = -20; signal line is -17

11/21/18; 10:00 AM EST = -4; signal line is -17 but algorithm remains short

11/21/18; 9:36 AM EST = -4; signal line is -16 but algorithm remains short

11/20/18; 12:38 PM EST = -20; signal line is -16

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short as the bears continue to tear away bull flesh this week. The bears are in control with the algo number 4 points below the signal line. Bulls need stronger copper so watch copper trading overnight for a clue on market direction tomorrow (Wednesday). Bulls need CPER above 17.34 and the imminent turn will be in play. If copper turns bullish and the SPX moves above 2669, Keybot will likely flip long.

Bears need to keep copper and banks weak. Also, bears will benefit greatly if they can pull UTIL below 723.51. Stocks will immediately take a leg lower if the utes fail.

Thus, bulls will win with higher copper while bears win with weaker utilities. Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number tomorrow at 10 AM EST. Wednesday is the last full trading day this week. US markets are closed on Thursday for Thanksgiving Day and Friday is only a half-session.

11/25/18; 7:00 PM EST =

11/21/18; 10:00 AM EST =

11/20/18; 12:38 PM EST = -20; signal line is -16

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short as the choppy market drama continues. Keybot did not print any numbers on Monday but prints the pre-scheduled number and three others today thus far. The bears are in control with the algo number 4 points below the signal line.

Bulls need stronger copper, CPER above 17.34, to create stock market upside. If copper turns bullish, and the SPX moves above 2733, which is a long way higher, Keybot will likely flip long. For now, this week, the bears are running the show.

11/25/18; 7:00 PM EST =

11/21/18; 10:00 AM EST =

11/20/18; 12:38 PM EST = -20; signal line is -16

11/20/18; 10:59 AM EST = -4; signal line is -15 but algorithm remains short

11/20/18; 10:15 AM EST = -20; signal line is -14

11/20/18; 9:00 AM EST = -4; signal line is -12 but algorithm remains short

11/18/18; 7:00 PM EST = -4; signal line is -11 but algorithm remains short

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short but is champing at the bit to go long as the new week of trading begins. The algo number is 7 points above the signal line so the model wants to flip long but the internal parameters are not yet fully latched to permit the move.

If the SPX moves above 2747 (starting the week at 2736), Keybot will likely flip long. S&P futures are -10 about 90 minutes before Monday's opening bell. Bulls will benefit from stronger banks. Bulls need XLF above 26.98 (now at 26.79) which will send the stock market higher.

Bears need weaker copper and utilities. Bears need CPER under 17.32 (now at 17.50) and UTIL under 723.51 (now at 729.43). Either parameter turning bearish will indicate that the bears are going to take the stock market south again.

Keybot prints two pre-scheduled numbers this week one on Tuesday morning and the other Wednesday morning. Thanksgiving Day is Thursday in the States so a holiday-shortened trading week begins. US markets will be closed on Thursday and only open for a half-day on Friday. Watch copper, utilities and banks. Copper futures trade down -0.4% so CPER will be moving lower.

11/25/18; 7:00 PM EST =

11/21/18; 10:00 AM EST =

11/20/18; 9:00 AM EST =

11/18/18; 7:00 PM EST = -4; signal line is -11 but algorithm remains short

11/16/18; 3:21 PM EST = -4; signal line is -11 but algorithm remains short

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short but is champing at the bit to go long. The algo was active on Friday printing eight numbers. The algo number is 7 points above the signal line so the model wants to flip to the bull side, however, the internal parameters are not yet fully latched to permit the move.

The SPX begins Monday trading at 2736. If the bulls can find 11 points and push the S&P 500 above 2747, Keybot will likely flip long, hence the imminent turn notation is in the title line.

You saw the utilities rally on Friday, and also copper, so you knew the bulls had the day in hand. UTIL ends last week at 729 above the 723.51 bull/bear line in the sand in play for the week ahead so the bulls receive upside strength. Bears will growl if UTIL loses 723.51.

Next week can be set up after the Sunday number prints. Utilities, copper and banks are key. Bulls will need stronger banks to kick a relief rally into high gear. Bears need weaker utes and copper to bring on more downside carnage.

11/18/18; 7:00 PM EST =

11/16/18; 3:21 PM EST = -4; signal line is -11 but algorithm remains short

11/16/18; 12:36 PM EST = -20; signal line is -10

11/16/18; 11:45 AM EST = -36; signal line is -9

11/16/18; 10:16 AM EST = -20; signal line is -6

11/16/18; 10:01 AM EST = -36; signal line is -6
11/16/18; 9:53 AM EST = -20; signal line is -5

11/16/18; 9:51 AM EST = -4; signal line is -5 but algorithm remains short

11/16/18; 9:36 AM EST = -20; signal line is -5

11/14/18; 11:05 AM EST = -36; signal line is -4

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short with the algo number 32 points below the signal line. The bears are cruising. Keybot prints five numbers in the Wednesday session but no numbers in the Thursday session.

Utilities fail ushering in more broad stock market weakness. UTIL 728.81 is key this week and price is at 715 creating negativity. For next week, UTIL 723.51 is key replacing the 728.81 so it is an easier bar for the bulls to cross above and create stock market strength. At 4 PM EST today, at the closing bell, when the week ends, note the UTIL price in relation to 723.51 since it will provide information on how the stock market will trade on Monday.

UTIL 707.32 is extremely important. If UTIL loses 707.32, there will be epic stock market carnage ahead. A flash crash of the US stock market will be on the table and at the least, the S&P 500 would be expected to dump about 30 handles in quick order. Stocks will likely drop into free fall. The bulls must hold the UTIL 707.32 support. If the bulls fail, they are toast and investors will be shocked at how fast the stock market collapses. Interestingly, UTIL fell to 710.11 yesterday only 3 points from creating Armageddon, and very few realize the extreme danger.

The bulls need stronger copper, utilities, banks and for the SPX index to get back above 2749, to create stock market upside. Bulls will create a rally for the stock market if CPER moves above 17.32, UTIL above 729, XLF above 26.98 and/or SPX above 2749. Any 1 of the 4 parameters turning bullish will immediately halt the downward slide in the stock market. Any 2 of the 4 parameters turning bullish will create a strong relief rally and set Keybot up for potentially going long. Copper futures are rallying overnight into Friday morning as this message is typed about 6 hours before the opening bell for the US regular trading session.

UTIL 728.81 (723.51 for next week), UTIL 707.32, CPER 17.32 and XLF 26.98 tell the stock market directional story today. Copper futures are up +0.5% so CPER should turn bullish at the opening bell (if the copper rally holds) providing hope for the bulls. Remember, if UTIL 707.32 fails, and the other parameters remain bearish, stock market Armageddon is about to occur.

11/18/18; 7:00 PM EST =

11/14/18; 11:05 AM EST = -36; signal line is -4

11/14/18; 10:57 AM EST = -20; signal line is -3

11/14/18; 10:35 AM EST = -36; signal line is -3

11/14/18; 10:04 AM EST = -20; signal line is -2

11/14/18; 9:36 AM EST = -36; signal line is -2

11/13/18; 1:54 PM EST = -20; signal line is -1

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short. The algo remains active printing six numbers in the Tuesday session. The bears remain in control with the algo number 19 points below the signal line.

Bears need UTIL below 728.81 to create market carnage. Bulls need RTH above 106.38, SPX above 2749.65 and/or XLF above 26.98. The downward bias in the stock market will not stop until one of these three bearish parameters turn positive. Bulls need 2 of the 3 to turn bullish to create a strong relief rally.

Bears need weaker utilities while bulls need stronger retail stocks. The beat goes on.

11/18/18; 7:00 PM EST =

11/13/18; 1:54 PM EST = -20; signal line is -1

11/13/18; 1:44 PM EST = -4; signal line is -1

11/13/18; 11:42 AM EST = -20; signal line is -2

11/13/18; 11:21 AM EST = -4; signal line is -2

11/13/18; 9:57 AM EST = -20; signal line is -2

11/13/18; 9:42 AM EST = -4; signal line is -2

11/12/18; 3:56 PM EST = -20; signal line is -1

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant flips to the short side yesterday at SPX 2761 as markets tanked. The choppy violent price action continues with the VIX around 20 and higher. Banks and retail stocks collapse. Utilizes fail but recover. The key SPX 2749 level fails so it was Goodnight Irene. The move was swift and sudden. The bears are in control with the algo number 19 points under the signal line.

Bears need weaker utilities to create more downside carnage. Bears need UTIL under 728.81.

Bulls need SPX above 2749, RTH above 106.38 and/or XLF above 26.98. Any one of the three will immediately stop the stock market downside. 2 of the 3 will create a relief rally. If the stock market rallies, but none of these three parameters move into the bull camp, stocks will stall, roll over and head lower.

The last trade only lasted for three days. The algo was on the long side but stocks collapse on the oil price reversal to the downside. Both the Keybot program and the actual trading lose a percent on the last trade. The S&P 500 benchmark index is up about +3% this year. The actual trading generated by Keybot is up +13% on the year with about 7 weeks remaining in 2018. Keybot exits SPY and enters SDS. The algo flips back into the 2x ETF mode since a 30-day timer expires from the last whipsaw move back on 10/9/18. The choppy action may continue, however (2x ETF's will chew you up in choppy whipsaw price action). Time will tell.

Stay alert for a whipsaw especially if the choppy action continues. SPX 2749 is the most important number that exists in the stock market right now. It separates the cyclical (weeks and months ahead) bull from the cyclical bear. The SPX begins Tuesday at 2726. S&P futures are +11.

11/18/18; 7:00 PM EST =

11/12/18; 3:56 PM EST = -20; signal line is -1

11/12/18; 10:58 AM EST = -4; signal line is +1

11/12/18; 9:50 AM EST = +10; signal line is +1 but algorithm remains short

11/12/18; 9:49 AM EST = -6; signal line is +2; go short 2761; (Benchmark SPX for 2018 = +3.3%)(Keybot algorithm program this trade = -0.8%; Keybot algo for 2018 = +3.6%)(Actual results this trade = -0.8%; Actual trading results for 2018 = +13.1%)

11/12/18; 9:36 AM EST = +10; signal line is +3

11/11/18; 7:00 PM EST = +26; signal line is +3

11/9/18; 10:00 AM EST = +26; signal line is +3

11/7/18; 12:11 PM EST = +26; signal line is +2

11/7/18; 11:05 AM EST = +10; signal line is +2

11/7/18; 10:46 AM EST = +26; signal line is +2
11/7/18; 10:02 AM EST = +10; signal line is +2

11/7/18; 9:36 AM EST = +26; signal line is +3; go long 2783; (Benchmark SPX for 2018 = +4.1%)(Keybot algorithm program this trade = +2.2%; Keybot algo for 2018 = +4.4%)(Actual results this trade = +2.2%; Actual trading results for 2018 = +13.9%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long as the stock market roller coaster ride continues. The bulls remain in control with the algo number 23 points above the signal line.

The bears need weaker banks, utilities and retail stocks to verify a downward direction ahead for the stock market. Bears need XLF below 26.98 (now at 27.121) and/or UTIL below 728.81 (now at 738).

Bulls will benefit from stronger copper and lower volatility. Bulls need CPER above 17.40 (now at 16.84). Keybot does not print any pre-scheduled numbers this week. Watch the banks. XLF 26.98 will immediately tell you the stock market direction for Monday after the opening bell. The beat goes on.

11/18/18; 7:00 PM EST =

11/11/18; 7:00 PM EST = +26; signal line is +3

11/9/18; 10:00 AM EST = +26; signal line is +3

11/7/18; 12:11 PM EST = +26; signal line is +2