Thursday, November 29, 2018

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the long side at SPX 2721 on Wednesday at lunch time as Federal Reserve Chairman Powell began flapping his dovish wings at New York's Economic Club. Copper and banks sky  rocket higher creating upside euphoria in the stock market. Short covering adds more fuel to the upside bull fire.

The Wednesday rally is the strongest since March. The SPX comes back up to 2743 only 8 points from the very important 2751 bull-bear line in the sand that dictates a cyclical bull market from a cyclical bear. If the SPX moves above 2751, the stock market will catapult higher. S&P futures are down -10 about 2-1/2 hours before the opening bell for the Thursday regular session.

The bears need weaker copper and banks. Bears need CPER under 17.34 and XLF below 26.80. Either parameter turning bearish will stop the upside rally in equities and place Keybot in position to likely flip back to the short side.

Bulls win big with SPX above 2751. Bears win big with either CPER below 17.34 and/or XLF below 26.80. Copper futures are trading down -0.4%.

On the last trade that lasted about 2-1/2 weeks, the Keybot algo program gains +1.5% and the actual trading is up +2.6%. Keybot exits SDS and enters SSO remaining in the 2x ETF's unless a whipsaw occurs. The benchmark S&P 500 is up about +2% this year with only one month of trading remaining. The Keybot the Quant algorithm program is up +5% this year and the actual trading is up +16% this year. That is an excellent yearly return especially in this environment so it would be great if it ended the year at this level.

There are 21 trading days remaining in 2018. November ends tomorrow (EOM). December trading begins on Monday, 12/3/18. SPX 2751 tells the market story regardless of whether you are a short-term trader or long-term investor; it is the demarcation line between bullish glory and bearish misery.

12/2/18; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
11/28/18; 12:09 PM EST = -4; signal line is -19; go long 2721; (Benchmark SPX for 2018 = +1.8%)(Keybot algorithm program this trade = +1.5%; Keybot algo for 2018 = +5.1%)(Actual results this trade = +2.6%; Actual trading results for 2018 = +15.7%)
11/28/18; 11:17 AM EST = -20; signal line is -20 but algorithm remains short
11/27/18; 10:00 AM EST = -36; signal line is -19
11/25/18; 7:00 PM EST = -36; signal line is -19
11/23/18; 12:49 PM EST = -36; signal line is -18
11/21/18; 10:52 AM EST = -20; signal line is -17
11/21/18; 10:00 AM EST = -4; signal line is -17 but algorithm remains short
11/21/18; 9:36 AM EST = -4; signal line is -16 but algorithm remains short
11/20/18; 12:38 PM EST = -20; signal line is -16
11/20/18; 10:59 AM EST = -4; signal line is -15 but algorithm remains short
11/20/18; 10:15 AM EST = -20; signal line is -14
11/20/18; 9:00 AM EST = -4; signal line is -12 but algorithm remains short
11/18/18; 7:00 PM EST = -4; signal line is -11 but algorithm remains short
11/16/18; 3:21 PM EST = -4; signal line is -11 but algorithm remains short
11/16/18; 12:36 PM EST = -20; signal line is -10
11/16/18; 11:45 AM EST = -36; signal line is -9
11/16/18; 10:16 AM EST = -20; signal line is -6
11/16/18; 10:01 AM EST = -36; signal line is -6
11/16/18; 9:53 AM EST = -20; signal line is -5
11/16/18; 9:51 AM EST = -4; signal line is -5 but algorithm remains short
11/16/18; 9:36 AM EST = -20; signal line is -5
11/14/18; 11:05 AM EST = -36; signal line is -4
11/14/18; 10:57 AM EST = -20; signal line is -3
11/14/18; 10:35 AM EST = -36; signal line is -3
11/14/18; 10:04 AM EST = -20; signal line is -2
11/14/18; 9:36 AM EST = -36; signal line is -2
11/13/18; 1:54 PM EST = -20; signal line is -1
11/13/18; 1:44 PM EST = -4; signal line is -1
11/13/18; 11:42 AM EST = -20; signal line is -2
11/13/18; 11:21 AM EST = -4; signal line is -2
11/13/18; 9:57 AM EST = -20; signal line is -2
11/13/18; 9:42 AM EST = -4; signal line is -2
11/12/18; 3:56 PM EST = -20; signal line is -1
11/12/18; 10:58 AM EST = -4; signal line is +1
11/12/18; 9:50 AM EST = +10; signal line is +1 but algorithm remains short
11/12/18; 9:49 AM EST = -6; signal line is +2; go short 2761; (Benchmark SPX for 2018 = +3.3%)(Keybot algorithm program this trade = -0.8%; Keybot algo for 2018 = +3.6%)(Actual results this trade = -0.8%; Actual trading results for 2018 = +13.1%)

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