STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant is long as the market craziness continues. The algo number and signal line are both at +36 so flip a coin. The bulls and bears are in a dead-even tug-o-war for control of the stock market direction.

The market bulls need higher banks and copper either XLF above 27.91 (now at 27.70) and/or JJCTF above 34.92 (now at 34.46). Either one will confirm that the bulls are going to take the stock market higher.

The bears need higher volatility for the VIX to move above 16.04 (now at 15.41). If volatility turns bearish, and the SPX drops below 2659, Keybot will likely flip back to the short side, hence the imminent turn notation is in the title line.

Bulls need higher banks and copper. Bears need higher volatility. Copper futures trade overnight and the VIX comes on line at 3 AM EST so these two parameters will provide hints on the direction of the stock market for the Monday session before it begins.

Monday is EOM (end-of-month) so a pre-scheduled number will print. Another pre-scheduled number prints Friday morning before the opening bell. The beat goes on.

5/6/18; 7:00 PM EST =

5/4/18; 9:00 AM EST =

4/30/18; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

4/29/18; 7:00 PM EST = +36; signal line is +36 but algorithm remains long

4/27/18; 12:52 PM EST = +36; signal line is +37 but algorithm remains long

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is long after a wild whipsaw period in markets over the last six trading days. Keybot flipped short on Friday, 4/20/18, then flipped long last Monday, then to the short side on Tuesday, then flipped to the long side on Thursday. That is market craziness. Keybot the Quant is an algorithm designed to take the smoothest path through the year so the activity is testimony to how markets are erratic and unstable.

Humorously, the quant is now long from SPX 2654 which is basically the same as being long from SPX 2645 on 4/10/18. In other words, the algo is in the same place as it was a couple weeks ago without the whipsaws.

On the rapid flips in trades, the algo cycled from SPY into DOG into SPY into RWM into IWM. The benchmark S&P 500 is down a percent on the year. The Keybot algorithm computer program is up +2% on the year. The actual trading, triggered by the algo, is up +8.3% on the year despite the whipsaws. Keybot is in the single ETF's due to the sawtooth market pattern. Any bull or bear in the 2x, and especially 3x ETF's, are getting chewed up and spit out daily. Serves everyone right for whoever is in a 3x ETF; these vehicles should be completely ignored and never played.

There are three parameters most impacting stock market direction currently; financials, copper and volatility. Bulls need higher banks and copper. Bears need higher volatility.

4/30/18; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

4/29/18; 7:00 PM EST =

4/27/18; 12:52 PM EST = +36; signal line is +37 but algorithm remains long

4/27/18; 10:32 AM EST = +22; signal line is +37 but algorithm remains long

4/27/18; 10:00 AM EST = +36; signal line is +37 but algorithm remains long

4/27/18; 9:36 AM EST = +36; signal line is +36 but algorithm remains long

4/26/18; 3:16 PM EST = +22; signal line is +35 but algorithm remains long

4/26/18; 9:58 AM EST = +38; signal line is +34; go long 2654; (Benchmark SPX for 2018 = -0.8%)(Keybot algorithm program this trade = -0.3%; Keybot algo for 2018 = +2.0%)(Actual results this trade = +0.3%; Actual trading results for 2018 = +8.3%)

4/26/18; 9:36 AM EST = +38; signal line is +33 but algorithm remains short

4/25/18; 1:36 PM EST = +22; signal line is +32

4/25/18; 9:37 AM EST = +8; signal line is +32

4/24/18; 3:53 PM EST = +22; signal line is +33

4/24/18; 3:38 PM EST = +8; signal line is +33

4/24/18; 3:09 PM EST = +22; signal line is +34

4/24/18; 1:56 PM EST = +8; signal line is +34
4/24/18; 12:45 PM EST = +22; signal line is +36; go short 2647; (Benchmark SPX for 2018 = -1.0%)(Keybot algorithm program this trade = -1.3%; Keybot algo for 2018 = +2.3%)(Actual results this trade = -1.2%; Actual trading results for 2018 = +8.0%)

4/24/18; 12:24 PM EST = +38; signal line is +37

4/24/18; 11:18 AM EST = +54; signal line is +37

4/24/18; 11:10 AM EST = +38; signal line is +36

4/24/18; 10:22 AM EST = +54; signal line is +37

4/24/18; 10:00 AM EST = +68; signal line is +36
4/24/18; 9:36 AM EST = +68; signal line is +35

4/23/18; 3:41 PM EST = +38; signal line is +33

4/23/18; 2:56 PM EST = +22; signal line is +32 but algorithm remains long

4/23/18; 2:10 PM EST = +38; signal line is +32

4/23/18; 1:57 PM EST = +54; signal line is +30

4/23/18; 1:45 PM EST = +38; signal line is +28

4/23/18; 12:48 PM EST = +54; signal line is +28

4/23/18; 11:34 AM EST = +68; signal line is +26

4/23/18; 11:14 AM EST = +52; signal line is +25; go long 2682; (Benchmark SPX for 2018 = +0.3%)(Keybot algorithm program this trade = -0.8%; Keybot algo for 2018 = +3.6%)(Actual results this trade = -0.5%; Actual trading results for 2018 = +9.2%)

4/23/18; 10:51 AM EST = +38; signal line is +23 but algorithm remains short

4/23/18; 9:36 AM EST = +22; signal line is +21 but algorithm remains short

4/22/18; 7:00 PM EST = +6; signal line is +20

4/20/18; 3:09 PM EST = +6; signal line is +20; go short 2662; (Benchmark SPX for 2018 = -0.5%)(Keybot algorithm program this trade = +0.6%; Keybot algo for 2018 = +4.4%)(Actual results this trade = +0.7%; Actual trading results for 2018 = +9.7%)

4/20/18; 2:17 PM EST = +6; signal line is +19 but algorithm remains long

4/20/18; 1:33 PM EST = +22; signal line is +19

4/20/18; 12:07 PM EST = +6; signal line is +18 but algorithm remains long

4/20/18; 12:02 PM EST = +22; signal line is +18

4/20/18; 11:48 AM EST = +38; signal line is +18

4/20/18; 11:03 AM EST = +22; signal line is +16
4/20/18; 9:36 AM EST = +38; signal line is +15

4/19/18; 9:36 AM EST = +22; signal line is +13
4/18/18; 2:20 PM EST = +52; signal line is +12

4/18/18; 1:42 PM EST = +38; signal line is +9

4/18/18; 9:36 AM EST = +54; signal line is +7

4/17/18; 3:59 PM EST = +36; signal line is +5

4/17/18; 3:16 PM EST = +52; signal line is +3

4/17/18; 10:00 AM EST = +36; signal line is +1

4/17/18; 9:36 AM EST = +22; signal line is -1

4/17/18; 9:00 AM EST = +22; signal line is -3

4/16/18; 3:48 PM EST = +22; signal line is -4

4/16/18; 3:41 PM EST = +6; signal line is -6

4/16/18; 3:12 PM EST = -10; signal line is -7 but the algorithm remains long

4/16/18; 1:21 PM EST = +6; signal line is -8

4/16/18; 12:14 PM EST = +22; signal line is -9

4/16/18; 10:52 AM EST = +6; signal line is -11

4/16/18; 10:33 AM EST = +22; signal line is -12

4/16/18; 9:36 AM EST = +6; signal line is -14
4/15/18; 7:00 PM EST = -10; signal line is -16
4/13/18; 3:07 PM EST = -10; signal line is -16

4/13/18; 11:31 AM EST = +6; signal line is -16

4/13/18; 11:05 AM EST = -10; signal line is -17

4/13/18; 10:54 AM EST = +6; signal line is -17

4/13/18; 10:30 AM EST = -10; signal line is -18

4/13/18; 10:00 AM EST = +6; signal line is -18
4/12/18; 10:06 AM EST = +6; signal line is -19

4/12/18; 9:36 AM EST = -10; signal line is -20

4/10/18; 9:36 AM EST = +6; signal line is -20; go long 2645; (Benchmark SPX for 2018 = -1.1%)(Keybot algorithm program this trade = -0.8%; Keybot algo for 2018 = +3.8%)(Actual results this trade = -0.9%; Actual trading results for 2018 = +9.0%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long as the bulls push stocks higher. Copper failed at the opening bell but retail stocks rallied nullifying the weakness. Volatility dropped like a stone and the VIX fell through the key 15.66 level which launched the SPX above 2700. The algo number is comfortably 31 points above the signal line with the bulls in firm control.

For the hump day trade, bulls need JJCTF above 34.86 and/or UTIL above 700.74 which will send equities higher. If both turn bullish, the stock market will be in a melt-up.

The market bears need to push the VIX above 15.66 pronto to stop the rally. If the VIX remains below 15.66, the bears are toast. Bears can also benefit if RTH drops below 93.95.

If copper and utilities remain in the bear camp, and volatility and retail stocks remain in the bull camp, stocks will trend choppy sideways with a slight upward bias. One or more of the four parameters will likely flip camps and that will tell you the stock market direction forward.

4/22/18; 7:00 PM EST =

4/17/18; 3:59 PM EST = +36; signal line is +5

4/17/18; 3:16 PM EST = +52; signal line is +3

4/17/18; 10:00 AM EST = +36; signal line is +1

4/17/18; 9:36 AM EST = +22; signal line is -1

4/17/18; 9:00 AM EST = +22; signal line is -3

4/16/18; 3:48 PM EST = +22; signal line is -4

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains bullish as the stock market chops along. Keybot is active to begin the week printing eight numbers in the Monday session. The bulls are in charge with the algo number comfortably 26 points above the signal line.

There are many parameters impacting stock market direction currently. Boiling it down as simple as possible, the bulls need lower volatility and higher banks, retail stocks and utilities.

The market bears need weaker copper and semiconductors. Use the bull-bear lines in the sand for the chips at SOX 1331.50 and for copper at JJCTF 34.86 as the key parameters to follow to determine broad stock market direction. SOX begins the Tuesday session at 1332.52 creating stock market bullishness. JJCTF begins at 34.89 only 3 pennies on the bull side.

Bears win big if SOX slips below 1331.50 or if JJCTF falls below 34.86. If semi's or copper climb higher, the stock market is going to rally strongly higher.

Keybot likely needs to see both the chips and copper to fail, and for the SPX to drop below 2665, to flip the model short. If either SOX or JJCTF flip bearish, consider the imminent turn to the short side to be on the table.

Keybot prints one pre-scheduled number this week Tuesday (tomorrow) morning. The beat goes on.

4/22/18; 7:00 PM EST =

4/17/18; 9:00 AM EST =

4/16/18; 3:48 PM EST = +22; signal line is -4

4/16/18; 3:41 PM EST = +6; signal line is -6

4/16/18; 3:12 PM EST = -10; signal line is -7 but the algorithm remains long

4/16/18; 1:21 PM EST = +6; signal line is -8

4/16/18; 12:14 PM EST = +22; signal line is -9

4/16/18; 10:52 AM EST = +6; signal line is -11

4/16/18; 10:33 AM EST = +22; signal line is -12

4/16/18; 9:36 AM EST = +6; signal line is -14
4/15/18; 7:00 PM EST = -10; signal line is -16
4/13/18; 3:07 PM EST = -10; signal line is -16

4/13/18; 11:31 AM EST = +6; signal line is -16

4/13/18; 11:05 AM EST = -10; signal line is -17

4/13/18; 10:54 AM EST = +6; signal line is -17

4/13/18; 10:30 AM EST = -10; signal line is -18

4/13/18; 10:00 AM EST = +6; signal line is -18
4/12/18; 10:06 AM EST = +6; signal line is -19

4/12/18; 9:36 AM EST = -10; signal line is -20
4/10/18; 9:36 AM EST = +6; signal line is -20; go long 2645; (Benchmark SPX for 2018 = -1.1%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.8%; Keybot algo for 2018 = +3.8%)(Actual results this trade = -0.9%; Actual results for 2018 = +9.0%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips back to the long side at the opening bell yesterday at SPX 2645. Copper strength and the rally in the NYSE Composite carry stocks higher. The algo number is 26 points above the signal line so the bulls are proud of themselves. S&P futures are down -13 four hours ahead of the US opening bell for the hump day trade.

The bulls are targeting banks and chips to gain more upside strength. Bulls need either XLF above 28.05 (now at 27.73) and/or SOX above 1330 (now at 1315). Either one will supply solid bull fuel creating higher stock prices.

The bears need weaker copper and NYSE Comp. Bears need either JJC under 34.97 (now at 35.45) and/or NYA under 12452 (now at 12566). Either one will supply solid bear fuel creating weaker stock prices. Keybot likely needs to see both parameters turn bearish to place the algo in the position to flip back to the short side. The SPX LOD yesterday is 2635.78 and an important number for today.

The benchmark SPX is down -1.1% on the year. On the last trade, the algo loses one percent with both the algorithm program and the actual trading. The Keybot program is up +3.8% this year and the actual trading is up +9%. Keybot exited SH and entered SPY remaining in the single ETF's due to the whipsaw action in the stock market. The beat goes on.

4/15/18; 7:00 PM EST =

4/13/18; 10:00 AM EST =

4/10/18; 9:36 AM EST = +6; signal line is -20; go long 2645; (Benchmark SPX for 2018 = -1.1%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.8%; Keybot algo for 2018 = +3.8%)(Actual results this trade = -0.9%; Actual results for 2018 = +9.0%)

4/9/18; 3:40 PM EST = -24; signal line is -21

4/9/18; 10:57 AM EST = -10; signal line is -20 but algorithm remains short

4/8/18; 7:00 PM EST = -24; signal line is -20

4/6/18; 1:44 PM EST = -24; signal line is -19

4/6/18; 12:43 PM EST = -10; signal line is -18 but algorithm remains short

4/6/18; 12:25 PM EST = -24; signal line is -18; go short 2625; (Benchmark SPX for 2018 = -1.8%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.5%; Keybot algo for 2018 = +4.6%)(Actual results this trade = -1.0%; Actual results for 2018 = +9.9%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips back to the short side during the Friday selloff. You saw the NYA lose the critical 12437 level so you knew stocks were in trouble and falling down the rabbit hole. Stocks may go into a crash if SPX 2581 is lost. Before that, the commodities would likely fail first so watch GTX 2550. Bulls must move NYA above 12437 as quick as possible, otherwise, the stock market will deteriorate. Thus, GTX 2550, SPX 2581 and NYA 12437 dictate stock market direction forward.

On the last trade, a whipsaw occurs so Keybot drops into single ETF mode for at least the next 35 days. Single ETF's reduce risk as compared to 2x ETF's. Sideways whipsaw markets chew up both bulls and bears. The algo loses a half percent on the last trade and the actual trading loss is -1%. The benchmark S&P 500 is down nearly -2% this year. The Keybot algo computer program is up almost +5% and the actual trading is up +10%. It has been an odd year thus far. The beat goes on.

4/8/18; 7:00 PM EST =

4/6/18; 1:44 PM EST = -24; signal line is -19

4/6/18; 12:43 PM EST = -10; signal line is -18 but algorithm remains short

4/6/18; 12:25 PM EST = -24; signal line is -18; go short 2625; (Benchmark SPX for 2018 = -1.8%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.5%; Keybot algo for 2018 = +4.6%)(Actual results this trade = -1.0%; Actual results for 2018 = +9.9%)

4/6/18; 9:00 AM EST = -10; signal line is -18

4/4/18; 3:27 PM EST = -10; signal line is -18

4/4/18; 3:20 PM EST = -24; signal line is -18 but algorithm remains long

4/4/18; 3:09 PM EST = -10; signal line is -18; go long 2638; (Benchmark SPX for 2018 = -1.4%)(Keybot algo this trade = +3.4%; Keybot algo for 2018 = +5.1%)(Actual results this trade = +6.0%; Actual results for 2018 = +10.9%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the long side on Wednesday afternoon at SPX 2638. The algo did not print any numbers today. A pre-scheduled number prints before the opening bell tomorrow morning. S&P futures are tanking -38 handles on Thursday evening (Friday morning Asia) after President Trump doubles-down on the tariffs against China.

Market bulls need higher copper and utilities to push stocks higher. Watch JJC 35.08 and UTIL 700.74. Either one will create upside fuel for equities. The UTIL 700.74 number is in play for all next week so write it down and watch it. Market bulls receive strength if UTIL moves above 701 while bears receive strength if price remains below.

Market bears need weaker commodities and NYSE Composite index. Watch GTX 2553 and NYA 12438. Either one will create downside juice for the stock market. If both flip into the bearish camp, stocks will be dropping like a rock. If either parameter turns bearish, and the SPX drops below 2649, Keybot will likely flip short.

On the last trade, the S&P 500 benchmark index turns negative this year down -1.4%. The Keybot the Quant algorithm computer program gains +3.4% on the last trade and is up +5.1% this year. The actual trading gains +6% on the last trade and is up a big +11% on the year. Keybot exits SDS and enters SSO remaining in 2x ETF's. Friday morning may be interesting since the algo may flip back to the bear side.

If either GTX or NYA turns bearish, consider the imminent turn notation to be in the title line. If stocks sell off big but GTX and NYA remain bullish, the stock market will likely recover and move higher. S&P futures are down -40 at 7:26 PM EST Thursday evening (8:26 AM Tokyo Friday morning).

4/8/18; 7:00 PM EST =

4/6/18; 9:00 AM EST =

4/4/18; 3:27 PM EST = -10; signal line is -18

4/4/18; 3:20 PM EST = -24; signal line is -18 but algorithm remains long

4/4/18; 3:09 PM EST = -10; signal line is -18; go long 2638; (Benchmark SPX for 2018 = -1.4%)(Keybot algo this trade = +3.4%; Keybot algo for 2018 = +5.1%)(Actual results this trade = +6.0%; Actual results for 2018 = +10.9%)

4/4/18; 10:51 AM EST = -24; signal line is -18

4/4/18; 10:42 AM EST = -38; signal line is -18

4/4/18; 10:35 AM EST = -24; signal line is -17

4/4/18; 9:36 AM EST = -38; signal line is -16

4/2/18; 3:59 PM EST = -24; signal line is -15
4/2/18; 1:18 PM EST = -38; signal line is -14

4/2/18; 12:36 PM EST = -24; signal line is -12

4/2/18; 12:10 PM EST = -38; signal line is -11

4/2/18; 9:51 AM EST = -24; signal line is -9
4/1/18; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ1 = -10; signal line is -7

3/29/18; 12:34 PM EST = -10; signal line is -6

3/29/18; 12:08 PM EST = -24; signal line is -6

3/29/18; 11:53 AM EST = -10; signal line is -4

3/29/18; 11:35 AM EST = -24; signal line is -4

3/29/18; 10:58 AM EST = -10; signal line is -2

3/29/18; 10:00 AM EST = -24; signal line is -1
3/27/18; 3:00 PM EST = -24; signal line is +2

3/27/18; 2:31 PM EST = -10; signal line is +4

3/27/18; 10:44 AM EST = +6; signal line is +5 but algorithm remains short

3/27/18; 10:37 AM EST = -8; signal line is +7

3/27/18; 10:00 AM EST = +6; signal line is +8

3/26/18; 3:47 PM EST = +6; signal line is +9

3/26/18; 1:10 PM EST = -8; signal line is +11

3/26/18; 10:35 AM EST = -24; signal line is +12

3/26/18; 9:36 AM EST = -8; signal line is +14

3/25/18; 7:00 PM EST = -24; signal line is +15

3/23/18; 11:11 AM EST = -24; signal line is +17

3/23/18; 10:06 AM EST = -10; signal line is +19

3/23/18; 9:49 AM EST = -24; signal line is +20

3/23/18; 9:40 AM EST = -10; signal line is +22

3/23/18; 9:36 AM EST = +6; signal line is +23

3/22/18; 3:51 PM EST = -8; signal line is +23

3/21/18; 3:59 PM EST = +6; signal line is +24

3/21/18; 11:48 AM EST = +22; signal line is +24

3/21/18; 9:54 AM EST = +6; signal line is +24
3/20/18; 2:34 PM EST = +22; signal line is +24

3/20/18; 2:03 PM EST = +6; signal line is +24

3/20/18; 10:34 AM EST = +22; signal line is +25

3/20/18; 10:12 AM EST = +6; signal line is +25

3/20/18; 9:44 AM EST = +22; signal line is +27

3/19/18; 11:38 AM EST = +6; signal line is +28

3/19/18; 10:12 AM EST = +22; signal line is +29; go short 2730; (Benchmark SPX for 2018 = +2.1%)(Keybot algo this trade = +1.9%; Keybot algo for 2018 = +1.7%)(Actual results this trade = +2.7%; Actual results for 2018 = +4.9%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short. The algo number is only 9 points below the signal line so caution is warranted. The most important number that dictates stock market direction going forward is SPX 2579 which was breached today; this is why the market is very sick. This is serious business.

If the SPX drops below 2579 (now at 2582) and stays under, the stock market will accelerate lower and a potential stock market crash is on the table. SPX 2579 determines the fate of the stock market in the days ahead. The bears will also benefit from weaker commodities with GTX under 2551 (now at 2567).

The market bulls need to push either NYA above 12432 (now at 12216) and/or JJC above 35.08 (now at 34.42). If either parameter turns bullish, consider the imminent turn to the long side to be firmly in play. Bulls need the NYSE Composite to rally tomorrow and for copper to trade higher.

Bears need SPX under 2579 and there will be carnage on trading floors. Tomorrow may be an epic day in the stock market. Keybot prints one pre-scheduled number this week on Friday morning. The beat goes on. 

4/8/18; 7:00 PM EST = 

4/6/18; 9:00 AM EST = 

4/2/18; 3:59 PM EST = -24; signal line is -15

4/2/18; 1:18 PM EST = -38; signal line is -14

4/2/18; 12:36 PM EST = -24; signal line is -12

4/2/18; 12:10 PM EST = -38; signal line is -11

4/2/18; 9:51 AM EST = -24; signal line is -9
4/1/18; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ1 = -10; signal line is -7

3/29/18; 12:34 PM EST = -10; signal line is -6

3/29/18; 12:08 PM EST = -24; signal line is -6

3/29/18; 11:53 AM EST = -10; signal line is -4

3/29/18; 11:35 AM EST = -24; signal line is -4

3/29/18; 10:58 AM EST = -10; signal line is -2

3/29/18; 10:00 AM EST = -24; signal line is -1
3/27/18; 3:00 PM EST = -24; signal line is +2

March Publication of the Daily Chronology of Global Markets and World Economics 2018-03 is Available from Amazon; COMPQ, NDX and SOX Print Record Highs then Crash; Stock Indexes Slip Negative on the Year; FAANG Defanged; FB Data Scandal; AMZN in Trump Crosshairs; 2-10 Yield Spread Narrows to 46 Bips; Yield Curve Flattens; Libor; Chinese President Xi is Dictator for Life; Trade Wars Escalate; Tariffs

The March Publication of the Daily Chronology of Global Markets and World Economics 2018-03 is available through Amazon. The 2018-02 and 2018-03 publications describe and explain the stock market collapse in great detail in real-time as the event unfolds.

The April 2018-04 publication of the Daily Chronology of Global Markets and World Economics is tentatively set for Saturday, 4/5/18.