Wednesday, September 11, 2019


Keybot the Quant remains long but is champing at the bit to go short with the algo number 7 points below the signal line. Hence, the imminent turn notation is in the title line. Both copper and commodities leap into the bear camp to create market negativity but the jack-booted central bankers are always fast to step on the throat of volatility to save the day. The VIX collapses to a 14-handle printing down at 14.55. Volatility drops so stocks pop.

President Trump wants to soften his stance on Iran which took more premium out of oil prices and helped to send commodities lower, however, the news is viewed more positively with other sectors. Global traders are waiting for the ECB decision and King Draghi press conference in the morning. It is not surprising to see equities float higher in front of Super Mario who is expected to flap his dovish wings. The central bankers are the market.

If the SPX drops below 2975, Keybot will likely flip short. The SPX will begin the day at 3001 right as the Draghi presser ends.

Bulls need CPER back above 16.39 and/or GTX above 2425 which will continue the upside rally. Bears need VIX above 15.84 which will crush stocks. If copper and commodities remain bearish, and volatility bullish, stocks will chop along sideways with a downward bias. Same dealio on tap for Thursday. As copper goes, so goes the markets.

Humorously, analysts and pundits tout a bull market into year end while copper and commodities, the building blocks of the global economy, break down. Draghi has more power than any other man on Earth tomorrow morning. How did the financial world ever deteriorate to such a place? Watch for SPX 2975.

9/13/19; 10:00 AM EST =
9/11/19; 11:46 AM EST = +54; signal line is +61 but algorithm remains long
9/11/19; 9:53 AM EST = +68; signal line is +60
9/10/19; 11:52 AM EST = +84; signal line is +58

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