STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the bull camp Monday afternoon at SPX 3779. Banks and retail stocks push the stock market higher and their jog moves are enough to push the algo into the bull camp. The quant is 4 points above the signal line. The same characters are in play.

Bulls win going forward if they push the VIX below 25.24. VIX is trading now, in the early morning on the East Coast at 27.45 with S&P futures +33. A sustainable rally will be confirmed if VIX drops below 25.24. If bulls are unable to push VIX below 25.24, stocks will roll over and sell off.

Bears need to attack banks and retail stocks reversing the Monday joy. Bears need XLF below 29.09 and RTH below 157.74. Everything is walking a tightrope.

Bears need weaker copper and must push CPER below 21.73. Yesterday, the bears were almost there but then the bulls jumped on retail stocks pumping them to heaven and copper followed. 

So the stage is set. Bulls win big if VIX drops below 25.24. Bears will stop the upside rally if XLF drops below 29.09, RTH below 157.74 and/or CPER below 21.73. Any downside in the stock market can be gauged by these three numbers.

Velly intalesting. Bears need about a -0.8% drop in copper futures and she is teasing right now. If any of the three parameters XLF, RTH or CPER turn bearish, and the SPX drops below 3726, Keybot will likely whipsaw back to the short side. That is a formidable task for today. Bears may try to lay the groundwork today and give it a go tomorrow. If the bulls succeed with lower vol, they will probably maintain elevated stocks for a few days.

On the last trade, that ran for a week, the quant program and actual trading each gain about a percent. On the year thus far, the SPX benchmark index is up a percent. The Keybot the Quant program is up +3% and the actual trading generated by the quant is up almost +6% so far in 2021. Keybot exited SDS and entered SSO remaining in the leveraged 2x ETF's.

2/7/21; 7:00 PM EST =
2/5/21; 9:00 AM EST =
2/1/21; 2:18 PM EST = +38; signal line is +34; go long 3779; (Benchmark SPX for 2021 = +0.6%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.9%; Keybot algo for 2021 = +3.0%)(Actual results this trade = +1.3%; Actual results for 2021 = +5.6%)
2/1/21; 1:52 PM EST = +38; signal line is +35 but algorithm remains short
2/1/21; 12:12 PM EST = +22; signal line is +36
2/1/21; 11:47 AM EST = +38; signal line is +37 but algorithm remains short
2/1/21; 11:07 AM EST = +22; signal line is +38
2/1/21; 10:56 AM EST = +6; signal line is +39
2/1/21; 9:36 AM EST = +22; signal line is +41
1/31/21; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +6; signal line is +43
1/29/21; 12:21 PM EST = +6; signal line is +45
1/29/21; 12:19 PM EST = +22; signal line is +47
1/29/21; 10:00 AM EST = +38; signal line is +48
1/28/21; 9:36 AM EST = +38; signal line is +49
1/27/21; 3:45 PM EST = +22; signal line is +50
1/27/21; 3:30 PM EST = +6; signal line is +51
1/27/21; 3:28 PM EST = +22; signal line is +53
1/27/21; 3:19 PM EST = +38; signal line is +55
1/27/21; 2:22 PM EST = +22; signal line is +55
1/27/21; 5:37 AM EST = +38; signal line is +57
1/26/21; 10:00 AM EST = +52; signal line is +57
1/25/21; 12:40 PM EST = +51; signal line is +57
1/25/21; 12:28 PM EST = +37; signal line is +57
1/25/21; 11:49 AM EST = +51; signal line is +58
1/25/21; 11:08 AM EST = +37; signal line is +58
1/25/21; 11:07 AM EST = +51; signal line is +60; go short 3812; (Benchmark SPX for 2021 = +1.5%)(Keybot algo this trade = +1.8%; Keybot algo for 2021 = +2.1%)(Actual results this trade = +3.7%; Actual results for 2021 = +4.3%)