STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips short short yesterday at SPX 4420. Utilities and banks create market ugliness. US markets are closed on Monday for President's Day. Stocks are usually higher the 2 days ahead of a long 3-day holiday weekend, but not yesterday. There is still a lot of chop suey going on slicing bulls and bears alike. The algo goes crazy yesterday spitting out 14 numbers including the flip to the short side.

Bears need to push UTIL back below 914 (now at 915) which will usher in immediate weakness. If UTIL remains above 914 floating higher, that is a tell that a relief rally is likely occurring and may run a couple-few days. If UTIL falls through 914, serious trouble is on tap, and then if the day ends with UTIL below 908.29 (which will be an important number next week), there will be Hell to pay next week.

The SPX fell through the 4394 cliff-edge yesterday ushering in bigtime weakness. SPX 4394 and lower forecasts a bear market that will last a few months if not year or two. Price is at 4380 to begin Friday trading and S&P futures are up +30. The top priority for bulls is to regain SPX 4394. If so, the stock market can be salvaged. If not, carnage will follow.

Watch the banks. XLF 39.47 is the bull/bear line in the sand. Price is at 39.23 in the bear camp.

Bears win if XLF remains below 39.47 and SPX below 4394 while pushing UTIL below 914 and preferably below 908 by the closing bell to start real trouble.

Bulls win if UTIL remains above 914 moving higher and if they can flip XLF 39.47 and SPX 4394 into their camp. Bulls need both of these parameters; one is not good enough.

On the last trade, that ran for only 2 days, the quant program loses a percent and the actual trading loses a couple percent. Keybot the Quant remains flat on the year while the benchmark S&&P 500 is down more than -7%. Keybot exits SSO with the loss and enters SDS remaining in the 2x ETF's. If the flip would have occurred on Wednesday afternoon, the robot would have probably went into single 1x ETF mode for 30 days but it did not. It will be interesting to see if a whipsaw occurs today.

2/20/22; 7:00 PM EST =
2/17/22; 3:31 PM EST = -18; signal line is +6
2/17/22; 3:15 PM EST = -34; signal line is +7
2/17/22; 3:09 PM EST = -18; signal line is +8
2/17/22; 1:44 PM EST = -4; signal line is +8
2/17/22; 1:05 PM EST = +12; signal line is +7 but algorithm remains short
2/17/22; 12:44 PM EST = -4; signal line is +6
2/17/22; 12:22 PM EST = +12; signal line is +6 but algorithm remains short
2/17/22; 10:59 AM EST = -4; signal line is +6
2/17/22; 10:29 AM EST = -20; signal line is +6
2/17/22; 10:19 AM EST = -4; signal line is +6
2/17/22; 10:05 AM EST = -20; signal line is +6
2/17/22; 9:55 AM EST = -4; signal line is +7; go short 4420; (Benchmark SPX for 2022 = -7.3%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.9%; Keybot algo for 2022 = -0.8%)(Actual results this trade = -1.8%; Actual results for 2022 = +0.9%)
2/17/22; 9:36 AM EST = -4; signal line is +8 but algorithm remains long
2/17/22; 9:00 AM EST = +10; signal line is +10 but algorithm remains long
2/16/22; 3:59 PM EST = +10; signal line is +11 but algorithm remains long
2/16/22; 3:21 PM EST = +26; signal line is +11
2/16/22; 3:09 PM EST = +12; signal line is +12 but algorithm remains long
2/16/22; 9:58 PM EST = -4; signal line is +13 but algorithm remains long
2/15/22; 3:56 PM EST = +10; signal line is +15 but algorithm remains long
2/15/22; 3:40 PM EST = -4; signal line is +16 but algorithm remains long
2/15/22; 2:11 PM EST = +10; signal line is +19 but algorithm remains long
2/15/22; 1:27 PM EST = +26; signal line is +21
2/15/22; 12:21 PM EST = +12; signal line is +22 but algorithm remains long
2/15/22; 11:19 AM EST = +26; signal line is +24
2/15/22; 10:47 AM EST = +42; signal line is +25
2/15/22; 9:55 AM EST = +28; signal line is +25
2/15/22; 9:43 AM EST = +42; signal line is +27; go long 4461; (Benchmark SPX for 2022 = -6.4%)(Keybot algo this trade = +1.8%; Keybot algo for 2022 = +0.1%)(Actual results this trade = +3.9%; Actual results for 2022 = +2.7%)