STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long as the bulls mount a stellar relief rally. The algo number is 60 points above the signal line with the bulls on easy street without concern. The bulls sing What, Me Worry? by Portugal. The Man.

Bulls need VIX below 23.60 and NYA above 16674 to continue the upside party. If these are not attained, the bull rally will stall. VIX is trading higher now, about 100 minutes before the opening in the US, at 24.34. The NYA begins the week at 16613 only 61 points from bull victory. If the NYA 16674 is breached, the rally has bigtime legs higher. The bulls got nothing and there is likely serious pain ahead if NYA 16674 is not breached.

3/27/22; 7:00 PM EST =
3/25/22; 10:00 AM EST =
3/20/22; 7:00 PM EST = +60; signal line is +0
3/18/22; 1:12 PM EST = +60; signal line is -3
3/18/22; 12:56 PM EST = +46; signal line is -5
3/17/22; 12:38 PM EST = +30; signal line is -7
3/17/22; 9:00 AM EST = +14; signal line is -8
3/16/22; 3:48 PM EST = +14; signal line is -9

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant whipsaws long after the opening bell at SPX 4314. The quant did not print any numbers on Tuesday but copper whipsawed back to the bull side and the stock market followed. The algo number is 23 points above the signal line so the bulls are gathering strength. During the last 20 minutes of trading, the bulls bent the retail stocks over the lingerie counter on the fifth floor, pumping RTH, creating the upside orgy into the closing bell. Copper and retail stocks were the bull fuel today.

Stock market direction is determined by copper and retail, in the bull camp, versus banks and chips, in the bear camp. Bulls need XLF above 38.52 and SOX above 3409 to receive an enduring rally. Bears need CPER below 27.75 and RTH below 179.13 to create negativity. The movement of these 4 parameters dictates stock market direction.

Key in on retail stocks (RTH) versus banks (XLF). One or both of these parameters are going to dictate stock market direction for Thursday.

Today was Fed day so stocks are typically higher (80% of the time) during the 2 days into and through the FOMC meeting and decision and voila, it occurs. Tomorrow and Friday the markets will react after they have time to chew on the first rate hike. Stocks are also trading on China covid fears and Russia's war against Ukraine. It is all this craziness creating the whipsaw choppy slop, chop suey, chopping up bulls and bears alike.

Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number before the opening bell tomorrow but that is no great shakes, as Alabama Shakes sings Hold On. Tomorrow is St Patty's Day a day when everyone is Irish. People will be puking green beer on the sidewalks tomorrow evening. It is spring and time to let that famous Irishman out of the shed; Pat-i-o Furniture.

The last trade is a whipsaw as per the quant program only lasting 10 hours. Keybot the Quant drops into 1x ETF mode for at least 30 days. This will cut down on the losses due to the chop suey. During the last 3 weeks, the SPX changes direction at least 6 times if not 8; that is every 2 to 3 days the stock market is whipsawing back in the other direction, on average. That is erratic and nutso price action.

The quant program lost -3% on the last trade and the actual trading loses -6%. For the year, the SPX benchmark is down -10%, actually -9.5%, so it is technically out of the -10% correction phase. The Keybot the Quant program is down -5% this year and the actual trading is bludgeoned -15%. It is interesting that without the whipsaw, the robot would be flat on the year. The -15% number is likely a record negative number for the quant that is operating for 13 years running. The actual trading has been down negative double-digits before but rarely. It will be fun to watch it make a comeback. The quant exits SDS with the loss and enters SPY the 1x long ETF.

Do not be surprised if the robot whipsaws back to the short side over the next day or two. If CPER and RTH fail, this outcome is likely. Watch RTH 179.13 and XLF 38.52 tomorrow because they likely dictate stock market direction.

3/20/22; 7:00 PM EST =
3/17/22; 9:00 AM EST =
3/16/22; 3:48 PM EST = +14; signal line is -9
3/16/22; 9:36 AM EST = -2; signal line is -11; go long 4314; (Benchmark SPX for 2022 = -9.5%)(Keybot algo this trade = -3.1%; Keybot algo for 2022 = -5.3%)(Actual results this trade = -6.0%; Actual results for 2022 = -14.9%)
3/14/22; 12:56 PM EST = -18; signal line is -12; go short 4185; (Benchmark SPX for 2022 = -12.2%)(Keybot algo this trade = -3.4%; Keybot algo for 2022 = -2.2%)(Actual results this trade = -13.5%; Actual results for 2022 = -8.9%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the quant flips to the short side at SPX 4185 at munch time. Copper finally fails but it would have been more helpful if it would have failed days ago. This morning, with S&P futures up over 30 points, you saw that copper was down -2.2% so you knew the bears would growl.

Watch the CPER 27.66 bull/bear line in the sand. Bulls win above and bears below.

On the last trade that lingered for a little over 2 weeks, the quant program loses -3.4% and the actual trading loses a whopping -13.5%. The 2x technology ETF was taken to the shed out back and whipped good. Sometimes you win with the indexes, sometimes you lose. For the year thus far, the benchmark S&P 500 index, the United States stock market, is down more than -12%, in correction mode, and in a bear market by several technical metrics. The Keybot the Quant program is down a couple percent on the year thus far and the actual trading triggered by the quant is down -9% on the year giving up the gains due to the tech shellacking. Keybot exits QLD and enters SDS. The robot should be able to make up for the lost ground.

The stock market is erratic and unstable so do not be surprised if a whipsaw occurs. Copper is in control of stock market direction currently. If CPER pops back above 27.66, consider the imminent turn to the long side to be back in play. Copper provided all the hope in the stock market over the last 2 weeks keeping stocks buoyant but the hope in the red metal, and the market, was lost today. Dr Copper is the star of the show.

3/20/22; 7:00 PM EST =
3/17/22; 9:00 AM EST =
3/14/22; 12:56 PM EST = -18; signal line is -12; go short 4185; (Benchmark SPX for 2022 = -12.2%)(Keybot algo this trade = -3.4%; Keybot algo for 2022 = -2.2%)(Actual results this trade = -13.5%; Actual results for 2022 = -8.9%)
3/14/22; 9:36 AM EST = -18; signal line is -12 but algorithm remains long
3/13/22; 7:00 PM EST = -2; signal line is -12
3/11/22; 10:00 AM EST = -2; signal line is -13
3/6/22; 7:00 PM EST = -2; signal line is -13
3/4/22; 9:00 AM EST = -2; signal line is -13
2/28/22; 7:00 PM EST EOM = -2; signal line is -15
2/28/22; 1:28 PM EST = -2; signal line is -15
2/28/22; 12:28 PM EST = -18; signal line is -15 but algorithm remains long
2/27/22; 7:00 PM EST = -2; signal line is -14
2/25/22; 10:45 AM EST = -2; signal line is -14; go long 4332; (Benchmark SPX for 2022 = -9.1%)(Keybot algo this trade = +2.0%; Keybot algo for 2022 = +1.2%)(Actual results this trade = +3.7%; Actual results for 2022 = +4.6%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long through the ongoing choppy slop. Chop suey chops up bulls and bears alike. The SPX is at 4204 about 128 points below where the quant entered at 4332. This is extremely odd behavior not exhibited by Keybot before. The quant has not printed any numbers except for the pre-scheduled numbers for the month of March. "What's up wit dat?" as they say in the Bronx.

On closer inspection it is easy to see why. The stock market is extremely polarized. Parameters such as the banks, retail stocks and semiconductors, to name a few, are beat-up and lying in the alleyway behind the dumpster. Typically, all the sectors would be lower in unison even if some may only be flat or marginally lower. Not now. The inflation sends copper and commodities to the moon. Wheat prices leap higher leaving dirtbag Dictator Xi wondering if he can feed 1.4 billion mouths.

Also, investors are hiding in the perceived safety of utilities following a playbook from 2 decades ago. The economic cycle stuff should be chucked in the trash. The four central bank horseman of the financial apocalypse, the BOJ (Japan), ECB (Europe), PBOC (China) and Federal Reserve (USA), have destroyed the economic cycles with their interventions over the last decade. Now the fun begins. The idiots buying utes do not realize they are only covering themselves with a gauze loin cloth. The 12 years of obscene money printing by the Fed has pumped all asset classes into the stratosphere.

Parameters across the board have chosen the bull or bear camp and remain deeply entrenched in their respective camps. Hence, Keybot the Quant idles along, putt, putt, putt, dit, dit, dit, and only spits out the pre-scheduled numbers.

However, there is one parameter that is the star of the show and will dictate what happens in the week ahead. Dr Copper. The red metal is in the bull camp and the main reason the quant has not flipped short as yet despite the soggy market action last week. The bull/bear line in the sand for CPER is 27.66. Nothing Else Matters, as Metallica sings. CPER begins the new week of trading at 28.00.

Thus, the bulls are happy despite the price action in stocks, since they have copper in their camp. The bears need a -1.2% drop in CPER which will be a knife through the heart of the market with a collapse in stocks occurring. The -1.2% applies to the copper futures as well so the trading overnight will tell you how things will be going in the States on Monday.

If copper futures are negative but down -1% or less, this is no biggie, and stocks may flat line or even become buoyant moving higher. If copper futures are positive, stocks will likely rally big on Monday.

On the bear side, if copper futures drop more than -1.2%, there will be Hell to pay. The bulls are whipping the copper miner's telling the bastards to work harder to save the stock market for the elite class as the peons breathe the asbestos like the Blue Sky Mine.

If copper turns bearish (CPER 27.66) and the SPX loses 4200, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short, hence the imminent turn notation is in the title line. It's all about copper.

3/20/22; 7:00 PM EST =
3/17/22; 9:00 AM EST =
3/13/22; 7:00 PM EST = -2; signal line is -12
3/11/22; 10:00 AM EST = -2; signal line is -13
3/6/22; 7:00 PM EST = -2; signal line is -13
3/4/22; 9:00 AM EST = -2; signal line is -13
2/28/22; 7:00 PM EST EOM = -2; signal line is -15

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long as Russia's war on Ukraine continues. In addition, President Biden provides the State of the Onion this evening at 9 PM EST.  S&P futures are down about -22 points 3-1/2 hours before the opening bell in the States.

The bears smacked copper yesterday creating the sogginess in the stock market but the bulls jammed the red metal higher and copper futures are higher overnight saving the day. February ends and March begins with 2022 flying along.

Each day the SPX remains below 4393-4394 is another nail in the bull's coffin. Bulls will throw confetti if the SPX moves above 4394. Bulls also need stronger chips and banks, SOX above 3515 and XLF above 39.30, respectively. If stocks rally, these parameters dictate the strength of any rally.

The bears need weaker copper, CPER below 27.16, but the futures are up +1.5%. Bears need weaker utilities but UTIL leaps to 943. Bears need UTIL under 915 to create trouble. The bulls are pumping utes because in a couple weeks UTIL must be above the 935 level or there will be market trouble. If UTIL collapses lower, and loses 915, and loses 9 hundo, it is likely the US stock market will go into a major crash profile.

Watch to see if copper flips negative today, if so, that likely tells you the stock market is in trouble. If CPER loses 27.16, and the SPX loses 4315, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short.

For now, the caution flag is out but if you see weaker copper and/or utilities, consider the imminent turn to the short side to be in play.

SPX 4393-4394 dictates whether Americans will have a happy year or two ahead, or, if it will be a sustained period of pain and misery. Whatever happens, face it head-on, don't be a "Big Baby" as Wanda Jackson sings.

3/6/22; 7:00 PM EST =
3/4/22; 9:00 AM EST =
2/28/22; 7:00 PM EST EOM = -2; signal line is -15
2/28/22; 1:28 PM EST = -2; signal line is -15
2/28/22; 12:28 PM EST = -18; signal line is -15 but algorithm remains long
2/27/22; 7:00 PM EST = -2; signal line is -14
2/25/22; 10:45 AM EST = -2; signal line is -14; go long 4332; (Benchmark SPX for 2022 = -9.1%)(Keybot algo this trade = +2.0%; Keybot algo for 2022 = +1.2%)(Actual results this trade = +3.7%; Actual results for 2022 = +4.6%)