STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant whipsaws long after the opening bell at SPX 4314. The quant did not print any numbers on Tuesday but copper whipsawed back to the bull side and the stock market followed. The algo number is 23 points above the signal line so the bulls are gathering strength. During the last 20 minutes of trading, the bulls bent the retail stocks over the lingerie counter on the fifth floor, pumping RTH, creating the upside orgy into the closing bell. Copper and retail stocks were the bull fuel today.

Stock market direction is determined by copper and retail, in the bull camp, versus banks and chips, in the bear camp. Bulls need XLF above 38.52 and SOX above 3409 to receive an enduring rally. Bears need CPER below 27.75 and RTH below 179.13 to create negativity. The movement of these 4 parameters dictates stock market direction.

Key in on retail stocks (RTH) versus banks (XLF). One or both of these parameters are going to dictate stock market direction for Thursday.

Today was Fed day so stocks are typically higher (80% of the time) during the 2 days into and through the FOMC meeting and decision and voila, it occurs. Tomorrow and Friday the markets will react after they have time to chew on the first rate hike. Stocks are also trading on China covid fears and Russia's war against Ukraine. It is all this craziness creating the whipsaw choppy slop, chop suey, chopping up bulls and bears alike.

Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number before the opening bell tomorrow but that is no great shakes, as Alabama Shakes sings Hold On. Tomorrow is St Patty's Day a day when everyone is Irish. People will be puking green beer on the sidewalks tomorrow evening. It is spring and time to let that famous Irishman out of the shed; Pat-i-o Furniture.

The last trade is a whipsaw as per the quant program only lasting 10 hours. Keybot the Quant drops into 1x ETF mode for at least 30 days. This will cut down on the losses due to the chop suey. During the last 3 weeks, the SPX changes direction at least 6 times if not 8; that is every 2 to 3 days the stock market is whipsawing back in the other direction, on average. That is erratic and nutso price action.

The quant program lost -3% on the last trade and the actual trading loses -6%. For the year, the SPX benchmark is down -10%, actually -9.5%, so it is technically out of the -10% correction phase. The Keybot the Quant program is down -5% this year and the actual trading is bludgeoned -15%. It is interesting that without the whipsaw, the robot would be flat on the year. The -15% number is likely a record negative number for the quant that is operating for 13 years running. The actual trading has been down negative double-digits before but rarely. It will be fun to watch it make a comeback. The quant exits SDS with the loss and enters SPY the 1x long ETF.

Do not be surprised if the robot whipsaws back to the short side over the next day or two. If CPER and RTH fail, this outcome is likely. Watch RTH 179.13 and XLF 38.52 tomorrow because they likely dictate stock market direction.

3/20/22; 7:00 PM EST =
3/17/22; 9:00 AM EST =
3/16/22; 3:48 PM EST = +14; signal line is -9
3/16/22; 9:36 AM EST = -2; signal line is -11; go long 4314; (Benchmark SPX for 2022 = -9.5%)(Keybot algo this trade = -3.1%; Keybot algo for 2022 = -5.3%)(Actual results this trade = -6.0%; Actual results for 2022 = -14.9%)
3/14/22; 12:56 PM EST = -18; signal line is -12; go short 4185; (Benchmark SPX for 2022 = -12.2%)(Keybot algo this trade = -3.4%; Keybot algo for 2022 = -2.2%)(Actual results this trade = -13.5%; Actual results for 2022 = -8.9%)