STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long but there is a story to be told. Craziness. The stock market has been psycho this week up, down, and all around. The quant flips short on hump day then whipsaws back to the long side this morning. It is wild action. If you ignored the last 2 days you would not notice that anything happened. Copper exploded higher which maintains buoyancy in stocks.

Semiconductors, volatility and banks are what matters as previous posts highlight. Copper matters but it has rocket launched higher and should remain in the bull camp for a little while.

Chips and volatility are creating bull fuel while the banks remain in the bear camp. The thrust higher today in stocks is initiated by the chips. Volatility drops and is comfortably below the bull/bear line in the sand at VIX 26.80 creating upside strength in the stock market.

Thus, the battle is chips versus banks. Bears need SOX below 3083 (now at 3137 running higher creating upside joy for stocks). Bulls need XLF above 35.55 (now at 35.22 in the bear camp) to seal the deal for an upside orgy party in the stock market. One of these two will flinch and it will tell you the stock market direction forward.

For the trade from last Friday to Tuesday, the quant program and actual trading each lost about -1%. Keybot the Quant exited SSO and entered SDS remaining in the 2x ETF's.

That trade lasted all of one day from Wednesday to today. The algo program and the actual trading are flat on this trade. For the year thus far, the benchmark S&P 500 is down -14% while the Keybot the Quant program is up +10% and the actual trading generated by the quant is up +9% (outperforming the benchmark by +23%). Keybot exits SDS and enters SPY the 1x ETF since the quant considers the last trade a technical whipsaw. Markets are too erratic so the robot drops down into the single less risky ETF's for the next 30 days.

Watch SOX 3083 and XLF 35.55. One of them will win and one will lose and the path forward will be written. There are always Winners and Losers in the Big City.

6/5/22; 7:00 PM EST =
6/3/22; 9:00 AM EST =
6/2/22; 10:53 AM EST = +27; signal line is +0
6/2/22; 10:25 AM EST = +11; signal line is -1
6/2/22; 10:17 AM EST = +27; signal line is -2; go long 4102; (Benchmark SPX for 2022 = -13.9%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.0%; Keybot algo for 2022 = +10.1%)(Actual results this trade = +0.1%; Actual results for 2022 = +8.5%)
6/2/22; 9:37 AM EST = +11; signal line is -4 but algorithm remains short
6/1/22; 1:38 PM EST = -5; signal line is -5 but algorithm remains short
6/1/22; 11:24 AM EST = -19; signal line is -5
6/1/22; 10:46 AM EST = -5; signal line is -5 but algorithm remains short
6/1/22; 10:39 AM EST = -19; signal line is -6; go short 4103; (Benchmark SPX for 2022 = -13.9%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.6%; Keybot algo for 2022 = +10.1%)(Actual results this trade = -1.2%; Actual results for 2022 = +8.4%)
6/1/22; 10:22 AM EST = -5; signal line is -6
5/31/22; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +11; signal line is -6
5/31/22; 3:59 PM EST = +11; signal line is -7
5/31/22; 3:28 PM EST = +27; signal line is -8
5/31/22; 2:48 PM EST = +11; signal line is -8
5/31/22; 1:45 PM EST = +27; signal line is -8
5/31/22; 11:40 AM EST = +11; signal line is -7
5/31/22; 10:25 AM EST = -3; signal line is -6
5/31/22; 10:00 AM EST = -19; signal line is -3 but algorithm remains long
5/31/22; 9:39 AM EST = -19; signal line is +0 but algorithm remains long
5/31/22; 3:06 AM EST = -3; signal line is +3 but algorithm remains long
5/29/22; 7:00 PM EST = +11; signal line is +5
5/27/22; 11:43 AM EST = +11; signal line is +6; go long 4127; (Benchmark SPX for 2022 = -13.4%)(Keybot algo this trade = +7.3%; Keybot algo for 2022 = +10.7%)(Actual results this trade = +12.5%; Actual results for 2022 = +9.6%)

Note Added 3:26 PM EST: SOX 3141. XLF 35.29.

Note Added 3:28 PM EST: SOX 3130. XLF 35.22. Craziness.

Note Added 4:22 PM EST: SOX 3158. XLF 35.38. VIX 24.72. The bulls pumped the banks into the closing bell but XLF needs another 17 pennies to prove that the stock market will run far higher. Tomorrow's another day. SOX is a comfortable 75 points above 3083 its bear danger line.