STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short as the stock market reacts to every news bite. Volatility and the utilities are running the show currently. Bulls need VIX below 27.00 (now at 27.23) to signal the all-clear for more upside fun. VIX begins trading at 3 AM EST so volatility will tell you early-on how the US trade is going to go.

Bears need UTIL below 952.30 to reopen the trap-door for US stocks. UTIL begins at 953.63 only pennies away in the bull camp but this can change at the opening bell. The stock market will deteriorate if UTIL loses 952.30. If utilities rally, the bulls must next push UTIL above 983 to create more upside fuel for stocks. This number is in play all week and then becomes worse for bulls at UTIL 1017 for next week (the week of 7/5/22 after the holiday).

In other words, UTIL has to rally this week from 953 to 1017 by 4 PM EST Friday, otherwise, there is likely Hell to pay. Utes will tell you a lot about the stock market this week. If utilities rally strong and start moving towards 1000 that will be a strong bullish signal for stocks. The numbers get hard for UTIL to meet, however, over the next month. Thus, an epic and historic stock market crash may occur in the stock market over the next month. UTIL will provide guidance.

If UTIL rallies, but the VIX remains above 27, the bulls got nothing and utes will likely roll over and die. If VIX drops under 27 out of the gate in the middle of the night, it will set up party-time for the US stock market for Monday.

Keybot the Quant likely needs more than the VIX turning bullish to flip long but if VIX goes sub 27, Monday may develop into a very bullish day. The bears are cruising with the algo number 25 points below the signal line.

The Independence Day holiday is next weekend and stocks are typically buoyant into a 3-day holiday weekend (Thursday and Friday). Keybot prints 2 pre-scheduled numbers this week one on Tuesday the other Thursday. June ends on Thursday which is EOM, EOQ2 and EOH1. End of first half and end of quarter window dressing may help bulls.

7/3/22; 7:00 PM EST =
6/30/22; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ2 EOH1 =
6/28/22; 10:00 AM EST =
6/26/22; 7:00 PM EST = -35; signal line is -10
6/24/22; 3:23 PM EST = -35; signal line is -7
6/24/22; 3:00 PM EST = -21; signal line is -5
6/24/22; 1:48 PM EST = -37; signal line is -4
6/24/22; 10:00 AM EST = -51; signal line is -2
6/19/22; 7:00 PM EST = -51; signal line is +1
6/16/22; 9:00 AM EST = -51; signal line is +3
6/13/22; 10:48 AM EST = -51; signal line is +6