STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short as the stock market roller coaster ride continues. The robot is active this week except for hump day when it did not print any numbers. The algo number is 18 points below the signal line so the bears remain in charge. Utilities, volatility and commodities are controlling the stock market direction currently. After a long run, commodities took the pipe creating the negative market mood.

Bulls must keep the stock market trap-door closed that is at UTIL 953 with price at 969. If/when UTIL loses 953, stock market Hell will be unleashed. The short-term picture for utes is encouraging (UTIL above 953) and should help stocks gain their footing. It is actually a huge win for bulls to keep UTIL above 953. Watch it every day forward because, again, when it fails, you will see the Grim Reaper. If utes fall into a weekly downtrend (see previous post), it will paint an ugly picture for the weeks ahead for stocks.

Setting utes aside assuming UTIL will remain above 953 but not have anymore upside gusto, volatility and commodities will be the big drivers of stocks. A weaker dollar would help commodities recover and aid the bull case. Goldman's GTX index needs to move above 3837 (now at 3768) to create upside market joy.  

Bulls need the VIX to drop below 27.03 (now trading in real-time at 28.64) to create a bullish rally. Watch for jog moves in the VIX and GTX that will hint that the quant is getting ready to go long (VIX or GTX crosses the lines in the sand but then a short time later (minutes or an hour or so) revert back but then a little while after that move back over the bull/bear line). For example, if VIX drops below 27, then a half hour later is at 27.50 or more, and then a half hour after that is down to 26.80, the robot is likely ready to flip long.

The SPX would likely need to be above 3819 or higher for Keybot the Quant to flip long. If VIX or GTX turn bullish, consider the caution flag to be out and if the SPX is above 3819 moving higher, Keybot the Quant is likely ready to go long (imminent turn to the long side).

Volatility is the big tell. Bulls have absolutely zero oomph unless they move the VIX under 27. If so, you will notice a huge rally develop.

7/3/22; 7:00 PM EST =
6/30/22; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ2 EOH1 = -52; signal line is -34
6/30/22; 10:18 AM EST = -52; signal line is -33
6/28/22; 11:25 AM EST = -38; signal line is -32
6/28/22; 11:13 AM EST = -24; signal line is -30 but algorithm remains short
6/28/22; 10:36 AM EST = -38; signal line is -29
6/28/22; 10:00 AM EST = -24; signal line is -27 but algorithm remains short
6/28/22; 6:35 AM EST = -21; signal line is -26 but algorithm remains short
6/28/22; 5:41 AM EST = -35; signal line is -24
6/28/22; 4:58 AM EST = -21; signal line is -23 but algorithm remains short
6/28/22; 3:06 AM EST = -35; signal line is -21
6/27/22; 3:59 PM EST = -21; signal line is -19
6/27/22; 10:13 AM EST = -35; signal line is -19
6/27/22; 10:01 AM EST = -51; signal line is -17
6/27/22; 9:47 AM EST = -35; signal line is -14
6/27/22; 9:36 AM EST = -51; signal line is -13
6/26/22; 7:00 PM EST = -35; signal line is -10