STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant whipsaws back to the long side at SPX 3856 yesterday afternoon. Interestingly, that is the third turn in three days; Friday the robot flipped long, Tuesday short, now Wednesday long. In the long history of the algorithm, if memory serves, this has only happened one other time. Maybe Thursday will be a fourth turn?

The bears tried to open the UTIL trap-door but could not so the bulls rallied hoping to push VIX below 26.95, and they did creating upside energy. The quant is on the long side again but the markets remain a crap-shoot. The algo number and signal line are both at the -38 and -39 numbers so flip a coin to determine the path ahead.

UTIL 955 and VIX 26.95 remain the key to stock market direction currently. Both are sitting in the bull camp creating upside lift to the US stock market. Bears need UTIL below 955 (now at 968) to open the trap-door and create market mayhem. Bears need VIX above 26.95 (now at 26.69 in real-time) to create negativity in the stock market.

If either UTIL or VIX turns bearish, either one would do, and the SPX drops below 3809, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short. If both flip into the bear camp, the robot may flip short faster at SPX 3817, hence the imminent turn notation remains in the title line. It's a crap-shoot. Markets are erratic and unstable.

Bulls need to maintain UTIL above 955, VIX below 26.95, and to try and rally chips, banks, retail and other sectors.

Since VIX is battling at the 26.95 bull/bear line in the sand, that is the rudder for today's market ship. As VIX goes, so goes the stock market in the opposite direction.

On the last trade that did not last a full 2 days, the quant program and actual trading each lose 2-1/2%. For the year, the benchmark S&P 500 is down -19% back out of a bear market according to the silly -20% metric. For the year, the Keybot the Quant program is up about +12% and the actual trading generated by the quant is up about +10% outperforming the benchmark SPX by 29 percentage-points. Keybot the Quant exits SH and enters QQQ.

Watch VIX 26.95; it will tell you What's Up. VIX is trading at 26.66.

7/10/22; 7:00 PM EST =
7/8/22; 9:00 AM EST =
7/6/22; 3:12 PM EST = -38; signal line is -39; go long 3856; (Benchmark SPX for 2022 = -19.1%)(Keybot algo this trade = -2.6%; Keybot algo for 2022 = +11.6%)(Actual results this trade = -2.5%; Actual results for 2022 = +9.9%)
7/5/22; 3:08 PM EST = -52; signal line is -39
7/5/22; 12:21 PM EST = -68; signal line is -38
7/5/22; 12:00 PM EST = -52; signal line is -37
7/5/22; 11:00 AM EST = -68; signal line is -36
7/5/22; 9:36 AM EST = -52; signal line is -35; go short 3760; (Benchmark SPX for 2022 = -21.1%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.6%; Keybot algo for 2022 = +14.2%)(Actual results this trade = -1.6%; Actual results for 2022 = +12.4%)