STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long but that does not tell the story of recent days. The quant flipped short on Tuesday and then back to the long side yesterday. By the time the flip to the shot side could be posted, the robot whipsawed back to the long side. Chips and retail stocks lead the way higher yesterday out of the gate and the banks and commodities are dictating if the party continues.

The VIX remained below the levels mentioned in previous posts so you knew that the bulls were still in control. The algo number is 18 points above the signal line not that big of a difference so the caution flag remains out.

Bulls need GTX above 3773 (now at 3719) to signal the all-clear for more upside stock market joy. Bears need XLF below 32.90 (now at 33.24) to stop the stock market rally and introduce negativity. Higher volatility and weaker chips and retail stocks would fuel negativity.

If XLF loses 32.90, it will likely not be enough to flip the quant short on the first try. If this occurs, however, watch to see if XLF jogs to and fro across the 32.90 line in the sand. If XLF loses 32.90, then regains it for a little while, then loses it again, that is a sign that the stock market is likely weakening, and the robot is likely setting-up to go short. Bulls are in good shape if XLF remains above 32.90.

The trade that ended on Tuesday ran for 11 days. The quant program and the actual trading generated by the quant each gain about +2% on that trade. Keybot the Quant exits SPY and enters RWM. On the whipsaw trade back to the long side, that trade lasting only about 4-1/2 hours, the algorithm program and the actual trading each lose about a percent. Keybot the Quant exits RWM and enters SPY remaining in 1x ETF's. For the year, the S&P 500, which is the US stock market, is down -17%. The Keybot the Quant program is up +11% and the actual trading generated by the quant is up +10% with the robot outperforming the S&P 500 by 27 percentage points.

Markets remain chop suey. Watch the bull/bear lines in the sand that currently dictate US stock market direction. XLF 32.90. GTX 3773. VIX 25.84.

7/31/22; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
7/28/22; 11:34 AM EST = +9; signal line is -9
7/28/22; 9:57 AM EST = -7; signal line is -11
7/27/22; 3:09 PM EST = +9; signal line is -10
7/27/22; 9:36 AM EST = -7; signal line is -12; go long 3959; (Benchmark SPX for 2022 = -16.9%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.8%; Keybot algo for 2022 = +11.3%)(Actual results this trade = -0.7%; Actual results for 2022 = +9.7%)
7/26/22; 2:31 PM EST = -39; signal line is -12
7/26/22; 12:28 PM EST = -23; signal line is -11
7/26/22; 11:58 AM EST = -39; signal line is -11
7/26/22; 11:28 AM EST = -23; signal line is -12; go short 3926; (Benchmark SPX for 2022 = -17.6%)(Keybot algo this trade = +1.8%; Keybot algo for 2022 = +12.1%)(Actual results this trade = +2.0%; Actual results for 2022 = +10.4%)
7/26/22; 11:10 AM EST = -23; signal line is -13 but algorithm remains long
7/26/22; 10:44 AM EST = -7; signal line is -14
7/26/22; 10:34 AM EST = -23; signal line is -14 but algorithm remains long
7/26/22; 10:17 AM EST = -7; signal line is -15
7/26/22; 10:16 AM EST = +9; signal line is -15
7/26/22; 10:00 AM EST = -7; signal line is -17
7/26/22; 9:51 AM EST = -6; signal line is -18
7/25/22; 3:44 PM EST = +10; signal line is -19
7/25/22; 3:09 PM EST = -6; signal line is -20
7/25/22; 9:54 AM EST = +10; signal line is -22
7/24/22; 7:00 PM EST = -6; signal line is -24
7/22/22; 3:43 PM EST = -6; signal line is -25
7/22/22; 2:05 PM EST = -22; signal line is -27
7/22/22; 11:39 AM EST = -6; signal line is -29
7/22/22; 10:20 AM EST = +10; signal line is -30
7/22/22; 10:05 AM EST = -6; signal line is -32
7/22/22; 10:02 AM EST = -22; signal line is -34
7/21/22; 3:54 PM EST = -6; signal line is -35
7/20/22; 12:41 PM EST = -22; signal line is -37
7/20/22; 12:02 PM EST = -6; signal line is -38
7/20/22; 9:44 AM EST = -22; signal line is -39
7/19/22; 12:36 PM EST = -6; signal line is -40
7/19/22; 12:09 PM EST = -22; signal line is -42
7/19/22; 10:26 AM EST = -6; signal line is -42
7/19/22; 9:48 AM EST = -22; signal line is -43
7/19/22; 9:36 AM EST = -38; signal line is -44
7/19/22; 9:00 AM EST = -54; signal line is -44 but algorithm remains long
7/18/22; 3:45 PM EST = -54; signal line is -45 but algorithm remains long
7/18/22; 11:27 AM EST = -38; signal line is -45
7/18/22; 10:18 AM EST = -22; signal line is -46
7/18/22; 9:38 AM EST = -38; signal line is -47
7/18/22; 9:36 AM EST = -22; signal line is -47
7/17/22; 7:00 PM EST = -38; signal line is -47
7/15/22; 3:08 PM EST = -38; signal line is -46
7/15/22; 11:09 AM EST = -22; signal line is -46
7/15/22; 10:33 AM EST = -38; signal line is -46; go long 3855; (Benchmark SPX for 2022 = -19.1%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.6%; Keybot algo for 2022 = +10.3%)(Actual results this trade = -0.5%; Actual results for 2022 = +8.4%)