Wednesday, July 13, 2022

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant flips to the short side yesterday afternoon at SPX 3831 as volatility ran higher. US stocks are about to open for the regular hump day session and futures are in a sour mood after the inflation report. Markets continue the chop and don't be surprised if a chop higher occurs again.

VIX 26.78 is the bull/bear line in the sand and it pops over 28 after the data remaining firmly in the bear camp that started yesterday at 3 PM EST. Bears remain in control of the stock market as long as the VIX remains above 26.78. If VIX drops below 26.78, the bulls will take over.

Boom. The utility trap-door opens. It's not good for bulls but great for bears. If you were watching yesterday, the bears tried to open it but failed, nonetheless, they created negativity with the higher vol. UTIL 956 is the trap-door that fails in the opening minutes with price down to 953. Can it hold? UTIL 956 will tell you a lot about what happens today. Ditto VIX 26.78.

On the last trade that ran for only a few days, the quant program and actual trading each lose about a percent. For the year, the SPX benchmark index is down about -20%, the quant program is up +11% and the actual trading generated by the quant is up +9% (outperforming the US stock market by nearly 30 percentage points). Keybot the Quant exits QQQ and enters DOG.

Boom. Nullification. UTIL is at 957 the bulls closing the trap-door. Watch UTIL 956 and VIX 26.78. Nothing Else Matters.

7/17/22; 7:00 PM EST =
7/15/22; 10:00 AM EST =
7/12/22; 3:02 PM EST = -52; signal line is -41; go short 3831; (Benchmark SPX for 2022 = -19.6%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.7%; Keybot algo for 2022 = +10.9%)(Actual results this trade = -1.0%; Actual results for 2022 = +8.9%)
7/12/22; 8:56 AM EST = -38; signal line is -40
7/12/22; 3:06 AM EST = -52; signal line is -40 but algorithm remains long
7/11/22; 10:57 AM EST = -38; signal line is -39
7/11/22; 10:36 AM EST = -54; signal line is -39 but algorithm remains long
7/10/22; 7:00 PM EST = -38; signal line is -39
7/8/22; 9:00 AM EST = -38; signal line is -38 but algorithm remains long
7/6/22; 3:12 PM EST = -38; signal line is -39; go long 3856; (Benchmark SPX for 2022 = -19.1%)(Keybot algo this trade = -2.6%; Keybot algo for 2022 = +11.6%)(Actual results this trade = -2.5%; Actual results for 2022 = +9.9%)

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