Tuesday, September 13, 2022

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the bear side at 11 AM EST today at SPX 3987. The move comes out of left field as the bulls were sitting on easy street. The inflation data is hotter than expected so panic sets in that the Fed will have to raise rates faster and higher. Volatility was first to flip creating weakness. The banks and retail stocks are what flushed the whole shooting match to Hell. It was a major bed-sh*tting.

The stock market remains a choppy coin-flip with the quant wanting to flip back to the long side in the afternoon but when that failed (the bulls pushed the VIX down to 25.25 as the robot called out ahead of time but the VIX bounced leading into the final 2 hours of market carnage) it was all over but the crying.

One key sector continues helping the bulls; utilities. There are a lot of moving parts right now but to pull out a few parameters, watch UTIL 1020.31, XLF 33.76 and VIX 25.28.

Bears need UTIL below 1020.31. If this occurs, there will be more stock market carnage and a blood-bath on Wall Street without end.

Bulls need XLF above 33.76 and/or VIX below 25.28 to stop the selling and at least stabilize stocks sideways. Both parameters turning bullish will create a big reversal rally to the upside.

Caution is warranted since markets remain unstable and erratic and the algo number is only 12 points below the signal line.

On the last trade, that ran for not even a week, the quant program gains about +1% and the actual trading gains +2%. For the year thus far, finishing up with Q3 in a couple weeks, the benchmark S&P 500 is down -16%. The Keybot the Quant program is up +18% and the actual trading generated by the quant is up +21% so far in 2022. Keybot exits SSO and enters SDS remaining in the 2x leveraged ETF's.

9/18/22; 7:00 PM EST =
9/16/22; 10:00 AM EST =
9/13/22; 1:49 PM EST = -34; signal line is -22
9/13/22; 1:33 PM EST = -20; signal line is -22 but algorithm remains short
9/13/22; 10:56 AM EST = -34; signal line is -21; go short 3987; (Benchmark SPX for 2022 = -16.3%)(Keybot algo this trade = +1.1%; Keybot algo for 2022 = +18.1%)(Actual results this trade = +2.0%; Actual results for 2022 = +21.2%)
9/13/22; 10:39 AM EST = -18; signal line is -22
9/13/22; 10:04 AM EST = -2; signal line is -22
9/11/22; 7:00 PM EST = +12; signal line is -21
9/8/22; 10:21 AM EST = +12; signal line is -21
9/7/22; 12:32 PM EST = -4; signal line is -22
9/7/22; 12:24 PM EST = -20; signal line is -22
9/7/22; 11:25 AM EST = -4; signal line is -21; go long 3944; (Benchmark SPX for 2022 = -17.3%)(Keybot algo this trade = +3.0%; Keybot algo for 2022 = +17.0%)(Actual results this trade = +6.1%; Actual results for 2022 = +19.2%)

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