Tuesday, September 13, 2022

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long. The bulls are cruising with  the algo number 33 points above the signal line. Short covering creates spurts higher in stocks as bears capitulate exiting short positions. Bulls need higher chips, copper and commodities to keep the party going and copper is already cooperating this morning creating buoyancy in US stock futures.

Bulls need SOX above 2800. SMH and XSD are not trading as yet but both INTC and AMD are a hair higher. Bulls need CPER above 21.85. Price begins the day only a dime below. Copper futures are up +0.7% this morning so CPER should pop to 21.90 leaping into the bull camp. Stronger copper is the main driver of the higher futures currently. Stronger commodities will also help bulls that need GTX above 3705.

On the bear side, it is really all about volatility. Bears need higher volatility to stop the stock market rally. Bears need VIX to move higher and pop above 25.25 which would at least stop the rally from proceeding higher.

Bears need VIX above 25.25. Bulls need CPER above 21.85 which will likely happen at the opening bell creating market joy, SOX above 2800 and GTX above 3705. Use these four parameters to forecast stock market direction.

For example, if stocks rally to beat the band but copper, chips and commodities do not achieve any of the bull targets, the rally is phony-baloney and will fade. If stocks go into a big selloff but the VIX does not go above 25.25, the bears got nothing and the selling will stop, reverse, and a rally will begin. Everything is going the bulls way but inflation data is on tap which may change the mood.

9/18/22; 7:00 PM EST =
9/16/22; 10:00 AM EST =
9/11/22; 7:00 PM EST = +12; signal line is -21
9/8/22; 10:21 AM EST = +12; signal line is -21

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