STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long as King Donnie dials-back the tariff rhetoric sending stocks higher. The bulls are in control but the algo number is only 17 points above the signal line.

It is all about the banks. They are the main driver of the stock market currently. XLF finishes last week at 48.02 only one penny above the 48.01 bull/bear line in the sand identified by the robot before it happened. Thus, the XLF 48.01 demarcation line is the whole show tomorrow morning.

If bulls send XLF higher after the opening bell, the upside party continues for stocks. If the bears can push XLF below 48.01, consider the imminent turn notation to be in the title line. If the XLF fails at 48.01, and the SPX prints below 5456 trending lower, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short. The banks slipping away would be an easy ask but the SPX would need to retrace about 70 points to the downside to get the negativity ball rolling downhill again.

The bulls saved utilities last week preventing a major stock market failure, at least for now. UTIL begins the week at 1021 with the bull/bear line in the sand at 1013. Bad things will happen in the short-term, and going forward in the intermediate and long-term, for the stock market if utilities slip away and go sub 1013 and then sub 1000.

Commodities remain key and bulls need GTX above 3680 to prove that they got the juice to take stocks higher.

Keybot prints 3 pre-scheduled numbers this week one on Tuesday morning, another on Wednesday evening that closes out the month (EOM), and another on Friday morning before the opening bell. Watch the banks tomorrow morning. XLF will tell you the answer in the pre-market.

5/4/25; 7:00 PM EST =
5/2/25; 9:00 AM EST =
4/30/25; 7:00 PM EST =
4/29/25; 10:00 AM EST =
4/27/25; 7:00 PM EST = -31; signal line is -48
4/25/25; 2:41 PM EST = -31; signal line is -50
4/25/25; 1:51 PM EST = -47; signal line is -52
4/25/25; 1:12 PM EST = -31; signal line is -54
4/25/25; 10:00 AM EST = -47; signal line is -56
4/25/25; 9:57 AM EST = -47; signal line is -56
4/24/25; 12:31 PM EST = -31; signal line is -56
4/23/25; 11:51 AM EST = -47; signal line is -57
4/23/25; 10:07 AM EST = -31; signal line is -55
4/23/25; 9:49 AM EST = -15; signal line is -54
4/23/25; 9:36 AM EST = -31; signal line is -54
4/22/25; 10:41 AM EST = -47; signal line is -54; go long 5254 (Benchmark SPX for 2025 = -10.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = +4.3%; Keybot algo for 2025 = +5.2%)(Actual results this trade = +3.1%; Actual results for 2025 = +9.5%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the long side this morning before munchtime at SPX 5254. Utilities run higher with an upside move so obscene it would make Caligula blush.  Utes and copper are holding-up the US stock market; everything else is in the crapper. The joyous rally today and happy futures this evening (S&P futures +100) are due to King Donnie backpedaling on the Powell besmirchment nonsense. The orange head says he will not fire Powell. Of course not, the idiot realized that he was only negotiating with himself while destroying the markets.

So the party is back on and now it is time to meet a hep girl at Big Town, as Roy sings. A classic. The bulls are running the show again with the algo number only 7 measly points above the signal line but that was enough to take control.

Utes, copper, banks and commodities are all that matter currently. Utes and copper are in the bull camp creating happy time. Banks and commodities are in the bear camp so if the bulls want to create upside strength, instead of petering out right away, they need these two parameters to flip bullish.

Bulls need XLF above 48.00 and/or GTX above 3680 to create strong upside in US stocks. If both turn bullish, stocks will be catapulting to the moon.

If status quo, with XLF and GTX remaining bearish and utes and copper bullish, stocks will stagger along sideways with a slight upward bias.

If UTIL loses the 1000 level, or if CPER loses 29.13, the Party Is Over, as Willie sings, and it is time to restart the beatings in the shed out behind the garage.

On the last trade that ran for about 3 weeks, the quant program gains about +4% and the actual trading gains about +3%. For the year, now well into Q2, the SPX benchmark is puking -11%. The quant program is up about +5% and the actual trading is up double-digits on the year +10%. The actual trading generated by Keybot the Quant is outperforming the S&P 500 benchmark index by a huge 21 percentage-points. Put that in your pipe and smoke it. Everyone else is cryin' and moanin' about losing their shirts; they should have stuck with the robot. Keybot the Quant exited SH and entered SPY remaining in the single 1x ETF's for another 11 days until the whipsaw timer expires. After 11 more days, the quant will use the 2x leveraged ETF's again when it changes direction, as long as whipsaw choppy slop is not occurring.

Utilities and copper can immediately tell you if the stock market is falling flat on its face if they fail. Banks and commodities tell you if there is further glory ahead for the bulls, or if it is a faux rally.

4/27/25; 7:00 PM EST =
4/25/25; 10:00 AM EST =
4/22/25; 10:41 AM EST = -47; signal line is -54; go long 5254 (Benchmark SPX for 2025 = -10.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = +4.3%; Keybot algo for 2025 = +5.2%)(Actual results this trade = +3.1%; Actual results for 2025 = +9.5%)
4/22/25; 9:36 AM EST = -47; signal line is -53 but algorithm remains short
4/21/25; 11:52 AM EST = -63; signal line is -52
4/20/25; 7:00 PM EST = -47; signal line is -51 but algorithm remains short
4/18/25; 11:15 AM EST = -47; signal line is -50 but algorithm remains short
4/18/25; 9:36 AM EST = -63; signal line is -48
4/17/25; 11:21 AM EST = -47; signal line is -47 but algorithm remains short
4/17/25; 9:36 AM EST = -63; signal line is -46
4/17/25; 9:00 AM EST = -47; signal line is -44
4/16/25; 10:49 AM EST = -47; signal line is -43
4/16/25; 10:33 AM EST = -63; signal line is -41
4/16/25; 10:26 AM EST = -47; signal line is -40
4/15/25; 9:36 AM EST = -63; signal line is -39
4/14/25; 1:32 PM EST = -47; signal line is -38
4/13/25; 7:00 PM EST = -63; signal line is -37
4/11/25; 1:46 PM EST = -63; signal line is -36
4/11/25; 12:22 PM EST = -79; signal line is -34
4/11/25; 10:00 AM EST = -95; signal line is -32
4/6/25; 7:00 PM EST = -95; signal line is -28
4/4/25; 12:45 PM EST = -95; signal line is -24
4/4/25; 12:21 PM EST = -79; signal line is -21
4/4/25; 9:36 AM EST = -63; signal line is -18
4/4/25; 9:00 AM EST = -47; signal line is -16
4/3/25; 9:36 AM EST = -47; signal line is -15; go short 5488 (Benchmark SPX for 2025 = -6.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = -3.0%; Keybot algo for 2025 = +0.9%)(Actual results this trade = -5.1%; Actual results for 2025 = +6.4%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short but is champing at the bit to go long with the algo number 4 points above the signal line. The internal parameters would not fully latch on Friday so the quant remains short to begin the new week of trading. S&P futures are in the tank down -61 because of King Donnie's Trade and Tariff War and his badgering of Fed Chairman Powell trying to force him to cut rates. Stocks will crash bigtime if Trump tries to fire Powell; it would be a major crisis. The dollar drops as foreign investors lose confidence in the orange head. S&P futures were down -13 last evening, only about 8 or 9 hours ago, and then news hits that China will continue retaliating against the Trump tariffs, followed by King Donnie's further besmirching of Powell on social media so that takes about 50 points off the futures.

Dr Copper is running the show currently along with commodities and banks. Copper is creating the remaining buoyancy in the stock market along with utilities. Copper futures are up right now going against the negativity in the S&P futures. Bears need CPER below 29.13, starting at 29.47, but it will likely bump higher after the opening bell. The downside in futures and stocks may be short-lived this morning with copper remaining bullish. However, if CPER loses 29.13, there will be Hell to pay.

Bulls need the SPX above 5256 trending higher to flip long, hence the imminent turn notation is in the title line. The futures say that stocks will drop instead of pop so the bulls will be left at the altar in the early going.

Bulls need GTX above 3685 and XLF above 48.07 to create strong upside in stocks.

The quant wants to flip long but only if the SPX moves above 5256 today. If that occurs, and then the bulls bring GTX and/or XLF into their camp, stocks will be in a joyous relief rally.

Bears must prevent SPX 5256 with all their might today and at the same time send CPER below 29.13. It is an extremely important bull/bear line in the sand. Bulls are using copper to pull themselves out of the darkness but the bears want to drag the red metal lower destroying the bull's hopes. CPER 29.13, SPX 5256 and GTX 3685 tell you all you need to know about the US stock market direction today.

As an aside, watch utilities this week. For the period 4/28/25 through 5/9/25 (the 2 weeks after this week), UTIL (DJU) 1013 will be a pivotal bull/bear line in the sand. Thus, the closing price for UTIL this week on Friday at 4 PM EST will tell the story ahead. If UTIL ends the week above 1013, a relief rally is either underway or about to begin and a crash scenario for the stock market is off the table for a few weeks. If, however, UTIL loses ground this week and ends below 1013, that spells big trouble ahead and places the US stock market back into a crash profile in the near term.

4/27/25; 7:00 PM EST =
4/25/25; 10:00 AM EST =
4/20/25; 7:00 PM EST = -47; signal line is -51 but algorithm remains short
4/18/25; 11:15 AM EST = -47; signal line is -50 but algorithm remains short
4/18/25; 9:36 AM EST = -63; signal line is -48
4/17/25; 11:21 AM EST = -47; signal line is -47 but algorithm remains short
4/17/25; 9:36 AM EST = -63; signal line is -46
4/17/25; 9:00 AM EST = -47; signal line is -44
4/16/25; 10:49 AM EST = -47; signal line is -43
4/16/25; 10:33 AM EST = -63; signal line is -41
4/16/25; 10:26 AM EST = -47; signal line is -40
4/15/25; 9:36 AM EST = -63; signal line is -39
4/14/25; 1:32 PM EST = -47; signal line is -38
4/13/25; 7:00 PM EST = -63; signal line is -37

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short. The algo was quiet last week only printing 3 numbers, all on Friday, and one was a pre-scheduled number. The bears remain in charge of the stock market with the algo number 26 points below the signal line.

Utilities recovered last week so this puts the crash scenario on the back burner. UTIL begins at 996 and needs to move above 1002 in the first few minutes of trading tomorrow morning to continue the positivity so watch it closely. If UTIL fails to achieve 1002, sogginess will come into the stock market.

Bulls must push UTIL above 1002 while bears need to keep it below. If bulls can push UTIL above 1002, the focus will be on copper and banks. Bulls need CPER above 29.12 and XLF above 48.31 to wrestle-back stock market control.

4/20/25; 7:00 PM EST =
4/17/25; 9:00 AM EST =
4/13/25; 7:00 PM EST = -63; signal line is -37
4/11/25; 1:46 PM EST = -63; signal line is -36
4/11/25; 12:22 PM EST = -79; signal line is -34
4/11/25; 10:00 AM EST = -95; signal line is -32
4/6/25; 7:00 PM EST = -95; signal line is -28

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short with a new week of fun ahead. The algo number is 67 points below the signal line so the bears are in full control of the US stock market.

Copper and utes sh*t the bed on Friday creating the market mayhem so it is very likely that a relief rally for stocks would occur as/when/if utes and copper recover.

Monday is 3 scenarios. UTIL 987.26 and 994.50 are two key bull/bear lines in the sand. UTIL begins the week at 974 in the bear camp creating stock market negativity. If UTIL remains below 987.26, the beatings in the shed behind the garage will continue uninterrupted. The Interrupters.

If UTIL regains 987.26, the stock market will stabilize and at least stop falling. If UTIL rises above 994, the relief rally for stocks will likely be underway. The bears are growling like Alice singing No More Mr Nice Guy. The bears are feelin' mean.

Keybot the Quant prints one pre-scheduled number this week on Friday morning shortly after the opening bell.

4/13/25; 7:00 PM EST =
4/11/25; 10:00 AM EST =
4/6/25; 7:00 PM EST = -95; signal line is -28
4/4/25; 12:45 PM EST = -95; signal line is -24

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short as the stock market crashes. Copper and utilities fail on Friday opening a trap-door to blood and carnage below. It is ugly. The algo number is 71 points below the signal line. It does not get any more negative than that. Equities are in a Breakdown, as Tom used to sing. The stock market is a mess circling the drain. 

4/6/25; 7:00 PM EST =
4/4/25; 12:45 PM EST = -95; signal line is -24
4/4/25; 12:21 PM EST = -79; signal line is -21
4/4/25; 9:36 AM EST = -63; signal line is -18
4/4/25; 9:00 AM EST = -47; signal line is -16
4/3/25; 9:36 AM EST = -47; signal line is -15; go short 5488 (Benchmark SPX for 2025 = -6.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = -3.0%; Keybot algo for 2025 = +0.9%)(Actual results this trade = -5.1%; Actual results for 2025 = +6.4%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips back to the bear side after the opening bell at SPX 5488 as was expected but the damage has been done. The bears are in control with the algo number 32 points below the signal line. King Donnie started the Trump Trade and Tariff War today calling it a liberation day because you are liberated from your money.

Banks, the NYA index and commodities took the pipe at the opening bell. Commodities had remained buoyant for many weeks supporting the bull case but that support has crumbled. Watch the GTX 3728 bull/bear line in the sand with price starting tomorrow at 3714. Bulls need GTX above 3728 to stabilize the stock market. If price remains below, the beatings will continue.

Copper is back in play for the first time in a long time. Bears need CPER below 29.65 and another ugly leg lower will occur for stocks. This represents about a -1.4% drop in copper futures so you can watch that overnight.

Tomorrow is the US Jobs Report so it will create drama. The robot is tracking commodities and copper with top interest. It is a cage match. Two enter but only one will exit. Bulls win with GTX above 3728. Bears win with CPER below 29.65. If the battle continues, stocks will stutter sideways until the victor raises his fist.

On the last trade that only ran for a few hours, the algo program loses -3% and the actual trading loses -5%. The drop would have been worse if Keybot would have been in a different index ETF but the Dow was the least dirty shirt in the laundry today (lucky it was in the que). For the year, the benchmark S&P 500 is getting slapped silly down almost -7% in Q1. The quant program is up +1% on the year and the actual trading generated by the robot is up about +6% taking it on the chin overnight because of the orange head's protectionism games but still outperforming the SPX benchmark by 13 percentage-points. Keybot exited DDM and entered SH dropping down into the 1x ETF's since the whipsaw timer was triggered. The robot will remain in the single ETF's for 30 days since it senses choppy whipsaw slop ahead.

4/6/25; 7:00 PM EST =
4/4/25; 9:00 AM EST =
4/3/25; 9:36 AM EST = -47; signal line is -15; go short 5488 (Benchmark SPX for 2025 = -6.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = -3.0%; Keybot algo for 2025 = +0.9%)(Actual results this trade = -5.1%; Actual results for 2025 = +6.4%)
4/2/25; 11:27 AM EST = -3; signal line is -13; go long 5656; (Benchmark SPX for 2025 = -3.8%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.2%; Keybot algo for 2025 = +3.9%)(Actual results this trade = -0.4%; Actual results for 2025 = +11.5%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant flips long at 5656 before munch time today but obviously, the timing is bad since King Donnie is trashing the stock market this evening after he kicks off the Trump Trade and Tariff War. S&P futures are in the tank down a couple hundo points about -3.4%. A 2x leveraged ETF to the long side is going to get bludgeoned by about -7% tomorrow if futures remain extremely negative.

This week is all about the NYA, SPX and banks. NYA 19365, SPX 5715 and XLF 49.67 are the bull/bear lines in the sand. XLF and NYA are creating bullishness while SPX is in the bear camp. Tomorrow all will likely be in the bear camp.

Do not be surprised if the quant flips back to the short side tomorrow and if so, it will be a hefty loss. Fortunately, the actual trading is up about +12% this year. Markets will be a mess overnight so you have to wait for the smoke to clear. 

On the last trade that ran for only 4 trading days, the quant program and actual trading log marginal losses. For the year thus far, the benchmark SPX is down about -4% while the algo program is up about +4% and actual trading generated by the quant up about +12%. Keybot exited SDS and entered DDM.

It looks like a Black Thursday is on tap. Trump flushed the stock market down the toilet with his protectionism a la the 1930's.

4/6/25; 7:00 PM EST =
4/4/25; 9:00 AM EST =
4/2/25; 11:27 AM EST = -3; signal line is -13; go long 5656; (Benchmark SPX for 2025 = -3.8%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.2%; Keybot algo for 2025 = +3.9%)(Actual results this trade = -0.4%; Actual results for 2025 = +11.5%)
4/2/25; 10:29 AM EST = -3; signal line is -14 but algorithm remains short
4/2/25; 10:06 AM EST = -17; signal line is -14
4/2/25; 9:36 AM EST = -33; signal line is -13
4/1/25; 3:59 PM EST = -3; signal line is -12 but algorithm remains short
4/1/25; 3:48 PM EST = -19; signal line is -12
4/1/25; 1:33 PM EST = -33; signal line is -12
4/1/25; 1:25 PM EST = -19; signal line is -11
4/1/25; 11:04 AM EST = -3; signal line is -12 but algorithm remains short
4/1/25; 10:59 AM EST = -19; signal line is -12
4/1/25; 9:41 AM EST = -33; signal line is -13
4/1/25; 9:36 AM EST = -17; signal line is -12
3/31/25; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ1 = -3; signal line is -13 but algorithm remains short
3/31/25; 3:10 PM EST = -3; signal line is -13 but algorithm remains short
3/31/25; 2:42 PM EST = -19; signal line is -14
3/30/25; 7:00 PM EST = -33; signal line is -14
3/28/25; 11:57 AM EST = -33; signal line is -14
3/28/25; 11:37 AM EST = -19; signal line is -15
3/28/25; 10:36 AM EST = -33; signal line is -16
3/28/25; 10:11 AM EST = -19; signal line is -17; go short 5643; (Benchmark SPX for 2025 = -4.1%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.4%; Keybot algo for 2025 = +4.1%)(Actual results this trade = -1.3%; Actual results for 2025 = +11.9%)