STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short as the King Donnie Trumpski drama continues. The orange one keeps saying a deal is near with Iran, while he threatens military action, and the schtick is getting old with everyone. Nonetheless, Donnie's words send oil and markets to and fro.

The stock market staggers along following the metrics the quant laid out on the weekend. Utilities and banks are controlling the show right now. The bulls attacked out of the gate this morning pushing utilities higher to try and regain their footing. Banzai! UTIL ran up to 1109-1110 signaling that the bulls got game, but that lasted 5 minutes and the utes folded like a cheap suit.

UTIL 1110.51 (was 1109) and UTIL 1089.25 are the two key bull/bear lines in the sand for utilities. Price is at 1107 creating bullishness because it is above 1089 but also creating bearishness in equities since it is below 1110. Watch the utilities.

XLF 51.12 is the line in the sand for banks. Price slip-slides down to 51.10 creating bearishness albeit by two little pennies. These three metrics will dictate the path ahead for equities.

The Memorial Day holiday is Monday and stocks are typically bullish the two days in front of a three-day holiday weekend, so the professional traders may create buoyancy into the happy weekend when booze will be guzzled, flags will be waved, and copious amounts of hamburgers, hotdogs, corn on the cob, apple pie and watermelon will be consumed.

The scenarios write themselves. The status quo with UTIL price between the two key levels and the XLF below 51.10, will continue creating soggy stocks and a sideways malaise for equities with a downward bias. If UTIL 1089 fails, it is lights out for the stock market.

If copper futures drop about -3% or more, or if the VIX spikes higher above 20, the bears will receive extra downside fuel and the stock market selling will intensify.

If the bulls push XLF above 51.10, it is only two cents away, stocks will maintain a sideways path with an upward bias.

If the bulls push XLF above 51.10, and UTIL above 1110, stocks will be gathering significant upside steam and the quant will be champing at the bit to go long. If these two turn bullish, and the SPX moves above 7395, Keybot the Quant may flip long.

Utes and the banksters will determine the stock market's fate into the holiday weekend. Check XLF in the premarket tomorrow morning to see if the fix is in, or not. Lots of traders nowadays wish they had a million dollars. If I Had a Million Dollars.

5/24/26; 7:00 PM EST =
5/22/26; 10:00 AM EST =
5/21/26; 9:00 AM EST =
5/19/26; 3:56 PM EST = +21; signal line is +42
5/19/26; 1:33 PM EST = +37; signal line is +43
5/19/26; 12:29 PM EST = +53; signal line is +44 but algorithm remains short
5/18/26; 9:41 AM EST = +37; signal line is +45
5/17/26; 7:00 PM EST = +21; signal line is +46