STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short and was not impressed with last week's action. The robot only printed 2 numbers last week and one was a prescheduled number on Friday. Perhaps the quant will be awakened from its idle slumber in the holiday-shortened week ahead.

Utilities, copper and volatility are running the show right now. The bulls jammed utes higher last week to try and take out the risk of a major crash in stocks. The UTIL lines in the sand this week are 1121.89 and 1118. Price begins at 1166 so this surpasses the 1122 and will create bullishness in the stock market. The bears need to pull UTIL, or DJU, below 1122 pronto to prove they still got downside game.

For the week of 7/6/26, UTIL 1151.70 will be a line in the sand replacing the 1121.89. Perhaps the bulls can keep utes elevated this week but watch the closing price on Thursday afternoon to receive a heads-up for the following week.

There is a lot jammed into this week only a 4-day week due to the July 4th holiday weekend. US markets are closed on Friday. Keybot the Quant prints a prescheduled number on Tuesday morning and then on Tuesday evening since it is the end of June trading that is also the end of the first quarter and the end of the first half of the year. Time flies when you're having fun. Keybot prints a prescheduled number on Thursday morning before the opening bell.

VIX 20.67 is a key line in the sand for the week ahead. Price begins at 18.41 in overnight trading so watch to see if it wants to run above 20 and higher, or not. Rising volatility would create negativity offsetting the positivity from the utilities.

CPER 37.93 is another line in the sand with price starting at 37.33 creating negativity. This corresponds to about a +1.6% gain in copper futures that the bulls need so watch that overnight. Commodities and copper have collapsed as oil prices retreat so goods inflation, and to some extent services inflation, should decrease going forward contrary to Fed Chairman Warsh's comments otherwise.

UTIL above 1122 will place the model in position to go long. If the SPX then runs above 7393 heading higher (about +40 points on the S&P futures), Keybot the Quant will likely flip long, hence the imminent turn notation in the title line. If CPER can regain 37.93, the bulls will be throwing a bigtime upside party.

The bears are likely going to have to live with the utes turning positive so their focus will be to prevent SPX 7393 from happening at all costs. The bears need VIX above 20.67 to introduce serious selling pressure. It has been a lot of choppy baby stuff the last couple weeks because volatility remains tame.

Bulls win big with UTIL above 1122, SPX above 7393, and CPER above 37.93.

Bears win big if they can pull UTIL below 1122 or at least end the week on Thursday with UTIL below 1152 to set up trouble for the following week. Bears need VIX above 20.67 to create stock market ugliness. Bears are going to fold like your cheap suit if they cannot push volatility higher.

The bulls can take the ball and run with it so it will be an interesting couple days to close out June trading. The US and Iran keep trading missile and drone strikes around the Strait of Hormuz. A wild card would be stocks tanking out of the gate Monday because King Donnie is clueless and has no strategy for his Iran War. Futures begin trading at 6 PM EST 12 hours from now. No doubt Donnie will bloviate this afternoon to try and influence the futures trading.

7/5/26; 7:00 PM EST =
7/2/26; 9:00 AM EST =
6/30/26; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ2 EOH1 =
6/30/26; 10:00 AM EST =
6/28/26; 7:00 PM EST = +23; signal line is +32
6/26/26; 10:00 AM EST = +23; signal line is +32
6/23/26; 9:36 AM EST = +23; signal line is +33