STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the long side after an extended fight this morning.  Price moved up over 1363 but continually failed to maintain levels as identified by the algo, until a few minutes after noon time.  The two-day trade, which does qualify as a whipsaw move since it was within 48 hours of the intial short signal, lost 1.6% both with the program and also with the actual trading.  The whipsaw keeps the quant in a lower risk mode where it only trades single ETF's without leverage, for at least another six weeks.

About an hour or so ago, the Nasdaq started to outpace the SPX to the upside, that was your tell that the bulls were making a run higher.  The bulls also sliced up thru the 20-day MA today wihtout much trouble which was bullish. Remain cautious, however. Copper helped pump the indexes higher today but JJC is running out of gas.  It would not be surprising to see Keybot flip to the short side again either this afternoon or tomorrow. Markets are very unstable currently. Watch JJC 48.43. Stay on guard for a whipsaw back to the short side.

3/11/12; 7:00 PM EST =

3/9/12; 9:00 AM EST =

3/8/12; 12:04 PM EST = +76; signal line is +66; go long 1364; (Benchmark SPX for 2012  = +8.4%)(Keybot this trade = -1.6%; Keybot for 2012 = +3.1%)(Actual this trade = -1.6%; Actual for 2012 = +5.8%)

3/8/12; 9:37 AM EST = +76; signal line is +66 but algorithm says stay short

3/7/12; 3:53 PM EST = +60; signal line is +66

3/7/12; 3:29 PM EST = +76; signal line is +66 but algorithm says stay short

3/7/12; 11:55 AM EST = +60; signal line is +66

3/7/12; 11:40 AM EST = +76; signal line is +66 but algorithm says stay short

3/7/12; 11:17 AM EST = +60; signal line is +66

3/7/12; 11:10 AM EST = +76; signal line is +66 but algorithm says stay short

3/7/12; 10:59 AM EST = +60; signal line is +66

3/7/12; 10:44 AM EST = +44; signal line is +66

3/7/12; 10:28 AM EST = +60; signal line is +67

3/6/12; 12:18 PM EST = +44; signal line is +67; go short 1343; (Benchmark SPX for 2012  = +6.8%)(Keybot this trade = -1.0%; Keybot for 2012 = +4.7%)(Actual this trade = -0.8%; Actual for 2012 = +7.4%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short but a hair away from going long.  Copper, JJC, jumped above the important 48.43 bull-bear line providing bull fuel for markets.  SPX gapped up at the open tagging 1363 as the HOD so far.  The algo wants to return to the long side as seen by the higher algo number versus the signal line but internal rules are holding it back.  If SPX moves above 1363 and it holds for a couple minutes, Keybot will probably trigger to return to the long side.

3/11/12; 7:00 PM EST =

3/9/12; 9:00 AM EST =

3/8/12; 9:37 AM EST = +76; signal line is +66 but algorithm says stay short

3/7/12; 3:53 PM EST = +60; signal line is +66

3/7/12; 3:29 PM EST = +76; signal line is +66 but algorithm says stay short

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is short to start the Thursday session. The quant printed nine numbers yesterday.  The semiconductors rejoined the bulls while copper languished sideways ending in the bear camp. CRB came down towards 313 but remains above favoring bulls.  Markets rallied yesterday as the Fed leaked news concerning a new sterilized quantitative easing program under consideration which sent markets higher and futures are higher overnight.  The junkie (markets) needs its crack cocaine (stimulus, quantitative easing).

Keybot did not whipsaw yesterday but with the hype around the Fed liquidity bump now goosing markets, the algorithm may move back to the long side after the opening bell.  If JJC, copper, moves above 48.43, now at 48.31, and if the SPX touches the 1355 handle, Keybot will likely flip back to the long side.  The futures currently show the move to the long side on tap, but the BOE and ECB rate decisions are ahead, as well as the Greece debt drama, and considering the erratic and unstable nature of markets, expect anything.

If the opening gaps up, watch to see if the markets then move sideways with a slight upward bias, or, if markets drift lower. If SPX 1355 is held for 7 to 10 minutes, chances are that Keybot will probably flip long.  The 20-day MA is 1358.39 so pay close attention here; see if price comes up and hits its head and is knocked back down, or, if price slices up thru like a hot knife thru butter.  The ECB decision and press conference occurring shortly is important.

3/11/12; 7:00 PM EST =

3/9/12; 9:00 AM EST =

3/7/12; 3:53 PM EST = +60; signal line is +66

3/7/12; 3:29 PM EST = +76; signal line is +66 but algorithm says stay short

3/7/12; 11:55 AM EST = +60; signal line is +66

3/7/12; 11:40 AM EST = +76; signal line is +66 but algorithm says stay short

3/7/12; 11:17 AM EST = +60; signal line is +66

3/7/12; 11:10 AM EST = +76; signal line is +66 but algorithm says stay short

3/7/12; 10:59 AM EST = +60; signal line is +66

3/7/12; 10:44 AM EST = +44; signal line is +66

3/7/12; 10:28 AM EST = +60; signal line is +67

3/6/12; 12:18 PM EST = +44; signal line is +67; go short 1343; (Benchmark SPX for 2012  = +6.8%)(Keybot this trade = -1.0%; Keybot for 2012 = +4.7%)(Actual this trade = -0.8%; Actual for 2012 = +7.4%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short and springs to life today now printing two more numbers over the last hour. Copper continues a dance across the JJC 48.43 number (remember these numbers are constantly recalculating in real-time so the change slightly continuously). JJC now printing 48.25 so the market bears are temporarily enjoying a vicotry by keeping the JJC down.  AAPL iPad3 release occurs within a half hour.

3/11/12; 7:00 PM EST =

3/9/12; 9:00 AM EST =

3/7/12; 11:55 AM EST = +60; signal line is +66

3/7/12; 11:40 AM EST = +76; signal line is +66 but algorithm says stay short

3/7/12; 11:17 AM EST = +60; signal line is +66

3/7/12; 11:10 AM EST = +76; signal line is +66 but algorithm says stay short

3/7/12; 10:59 AM EST = +60; signal line is +66

3/7/12; 10:44 AM EST = +44; signal line is +66

3/7/12; 10:28 AM EST = +60; signal line is +67

3/6/12; 12:18 PM EST = +44; signal line is +67; go short 1343; (Benchmark SPX for 2012  = +6.8%)(Keybot this trade = -1.0%; Keybot for 2012 = +4.7%)(Actual this trade = -0.8%; Actual for 2012 = +7.4%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is short and begins an active day by printing five numbers thus far.  The semiconductors are enjoying buoyancy as traders anticipate the iPad3 release, pumping up AAPL, which pumps the tech sector, Nasdaq and semi's. Thus, this may become dramatic once Apple announces the news today at 1 PM EST about an hour away. Copper is fighting along the JJC 48.44 line in the sand between bulls and bears.  Watch SOX 410.20 and JJC 48.44 as the bull-bear lines that will push markets negatively or positively.

CRB was weakening towards 313 but is now moving higher with  copper and the markets. The SPX went straight up at the open so the bears never had a chance to attack 1340, at least so far today. The SPX:VIX ratio moved above 68 which signals a big bull rally today (now printing 69.71), however, see how it plays out into the Apple news. Market bears remain in control for now, watch semiconductors and copper. The algo will likely continue to favor bears today as long as the SPX does not exceed 1363.

3/11/12; 7:00 PM EST =

3/9/12; 9:00 AM EST =

3/7/12; 11:17 AM EST = +60; signal line is +66

3/7/12; 11:10 AM EST = +76; signal line is +66 but algorithm says stay short

3/7/12; 10:59 AM EST = +60; signal line is +66

3/7/12; 10:44 AM EST = +44; signal line is +66

3/7/12; 10:28 AM EST = +60; signal line is +67

3/6/12; 12:18 PM EST = +44; signal line is +67; go short 1343; (Benchmark SPX for 2012  = +6.8%)(Keybot this trade = -1.0%; Keybot for 2012 = +4.7%)(Actual this trade = -0.8%; Actual for 2012 = +7.4%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is short. The market bears are keeping markets weak by keeping copper, JJC, under 48.40 and semiconductors, SOX, under 410.00. If the bears decide to push lower, they will do it with either the commodities or the financials.  Watch CRB 313, now at 314.45, and XLF 14.30, now at 14.44. If either of these two levels fail tomorrow or in the days ahead, the broad markest will weaken substantially.

For the SPX for Wednesday, starting at 1343, the market bears obviously have the momo. If the bears can push three points lower, to lose the 1340 handle, the broad market downside will accelerate likely in concert with the CRB or XLF giving up the ghost.  Price would move lower to likely test 1333 support. The market bulls simply need to stop the market slide and will be happy with a sideways day thru 1341-1362.

Stay on guard to see if a whipsaw move occurs. The bears are in control now. The trading excitement will increase into the end of the week with Greece's drama and the Jobs Report on deck.

3/11/12; 7:00 PM EST =

3/9/12; 9:00 AM EST =

3/6/12; 12:18 PM EST = +44; signal line is +67; go short 1343; (Benchmark SPX for 2012  = +6.8%)(Keybot this trade = -1.0%; Keybot for 2012 = +4.7%)(Actual this trade = -0.8%; Actual for 2012 = +7.4%)

SPX Daily Chart Showing Keybot the Quant Algorithm Turns -- Bearish from 3/6/12

3/6/12: Keybot the Quant flipped to the short side at 12:18 PM at SPX 1343; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is up 6.8%; Keybot algo is up 4.7%; Keybot actual trading is up 7.4%. Stay on guard for a whipsaw either this afternoon or tomorrow.
2/16/12: Keybot the Quant flipped to the long side at 1:10 PM at SPX 1356; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is up 7.8%; Keybot algo is up 5.7%; Keybot actual trading is up 8.2%. Stay on guard for a whipsaw.
2/14/12: Keybot the Quant flipped to the short side at 2:30 PM at SPX 1342; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is up 6.7%; Keybot algo is up 6.7%; Keybot actual trading is up 10.2%. Stay on guard for a whipsaw.
1/1/12: The new year begins. For 2011, the SPX Benchmark is flat finishing up 0%; Keybot algo finished the year up 33%; Keybot actual trading ended the year up 37%. Keybot begins 2012 remaining long. The new year begins at SPX 1258.
12/20/11: Keybot the Quant flipped to the long side at 2:49 PM at SPX 1240; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is down 1.4%; Keybot algo is up 31.2%; Keybot actual trading is up 35.5%. Stay on guard for a whipsaw.
12/12/11: Keybot the Quant flipped to the short side at 10:25 AM at SPX 1234; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is down 1.9%; Keybot algo is up 31.7%; Keybot actual trading is up 37.0%. Stay on guard for a whipsaw today or tomorrow.
11/28/11: Keybot the Quant flipped to the long side at 9:52 AM at SPX 1194; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is down 5.1%; Keybot algo is up 28.3%; Keybot actual trading is up 32.3%. Stay on guard for a whipsaw today or tomorrow.

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the short side. Three weeks of drama and the algorithm finally triggers the short side.  Semiconductors and copper are now in the bearish camp, JJC now testing the 48 level, well below the quant's level of interest at 48.40.

The recent trade lasted about three weeks and resulted in about a one percent loss overall for the algorithm program and the actual trading. The year remains up. Note that the algo dropped into a lower risk mode due to the previous whipsaw at 2/16/12, so this limited the trading loss to about one percent to mimic the actual broad market loss. Keybot should operate in the lower risk mode for about two more weeks, and, as long as a whipsaw does not occur, the algorithm will increase risk and return to trading double leveraged ETF's. For now the single ETF's are used for the lower risk trade.

Moving forward, watch JJC 48.40, bears are in good shape if copper stays below here.  Also watch SPX:VIX ratio 68 level, now at 65. Bears stay in command as long as the ratio stays under 68.  As always, stay alert for a whipsaw that may occur today or tomorrow.

3/11/12; 7:00 PM EST =

3/9/12; 9:00 AM EST =

3/6/12; 12:18 PM EST = +44; signal line is +67; go short 1343; (Benchmark SPX for 2012  = +6.8%)(Keybot this trade = -1.0%; Keybot for 2012 = +4.7%)(Actual this trade = -0.8%; Actual for 2012 = +7.4%)

3/6/12; 9:50 AM EST = +44; signal line is +68 but algorithm says stay long

3/5/12; 3:46 PM EST = +60; signal line is +68 but algorithm says stay long

3/5/12; 3:02 PM EST = +76; signal line is +67

3/5/12; 12:21 PM EST = +60; signal line is +66 but algorithm says stay long

3/4/12; 7:00 PM EST = +76; signal line is +66

2/29/12; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +76; signal line is +65

2/28/12; 10:00 AM = +76; signal line is +64

2/26/12; 7:00 PM EST = +76; signal line is +63

2/24/12; 3:05 PM EST = +76; signal line is +62

2/24/12; 2:30 PM EST = +60; signal line is +62 but algorithm says stay long

2/24/12; 11:41 AM EST = +76; signal line is +62

2/24/12; 11:16 AM EST = +60; signal line is +61 but algorithm says stay long

2/24/12; 10:47 AM EST = +76; signal line is +61

2/24/12; 10:00 AM EST = +60; signal line is +60 but algorithm says stay long

2/22/12; 3:26 PM EST = +60; signal line is +60 but algorithm says stay long

2/22/12; 3:03 PM EST = +76; signal line is +60

2/22/12; 2:55 PM EST = +60; signal line is +59

2/22/12; 2:15 PM EST = +76; signal line is +59

2/22/12; 1:42 PM EST = +60; signal line is +59

2/22/12; 1:08 PM EST = +76; signal line is +59

2/21/12; 1:18 PM EST = +60; signal line is +57

2/21/12; 10:42 AM EST = +76; signal line is +57

2/21/12; 9:48 AM EST = +60; signal line is +55

2/19/12; 7:00 PM EST = +76; signal line is +55

2/16/12; 1:10 PM EST = +76; signal line is +54; go long 1356; (Benchmark SPX for 2012  = +7.8%)(Keybot this trade = -1.0%; Keybot for 2012 = +5.7%)(Actual this trade = -2.0%; Actual for 2012 = +8.2%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is long but a turn appears imminent, the quant is cycling thru a timer that expires 10:57 AM EST. At that time we see if the algo wants to commit to the short side.  It is looking good for the bears.  Copper has now joined the bear camp so two major sectors, semi's and copper are now bearish.  Watch commodities, CRB, the 313 level.  CRB is only three points higher at 316.  If 313 fails, this creates further bear fuel.

3/11/12; 7:00 PM EST =

3/9/12; 9:00 AM EST =

3/6/12; 9:50 AM EST = +44; signal line is +68 but algorithm says stay long

3/5/12; 3:46 PM EST = +60; signal line is +68 but algorithm says stay long

3/5/12; 3:02 PM EST = +76; signal line is +67

Note Added 3/6/12 at 10:59 AM:  Keybot's gap-down timer expired which now leads to more drama.  The algorithm wants to flip to the short side but several internal parameters are no longer lined up.  Watch SPX LOD today at 1344.23.  Keybot will likely flip short if 1344.23 fails in the time ahead, and, this is held for five minutes. Current SPX print is 1345.65, thus about a point or so higher. Bears need to push lower and take out the lows for today to lock in a more extended down move.

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long but this may not last for long. The SOX plummeted at the open, and the SPX easily dropped under 1359, however, the large gap down triggered an internal function on the agorithm that now demands a time-out of 87 minutes past the open. Thus, Keybot the Quant is only one single hair from flipping short but the quant has to wait until 10:57 AM EST to firmly commit to the short side.

The market bears have strong bite today. The SPX:VIX ratio dropped under 68 which is very bearish.  The soap opera continues. A turn appears imminent and we will know positively one way or the other at 11 AM EST when the timing function expires.

3/11/12; 7:00 PM EST =

3/9/12; 9:00 AM EST =

3/5/12; 3:46 PM EST = +60; signal line is +68 but algorithm says stay long

3/5/12; 3:02 PM EST = +76; signal line is +67

IBM's Watson of Jeopardy Fame Put to Use at Citigroup

IBM's Watson computer that dazzled Jeopardy television show viewer's months ago will now be placed into use by Citigroup to perform deep content analysis to improve the banking experience.  For now, C and IBM say that Watson will not be used for stock picking but who knows what goes on in the back room, wink, wink, nudge, nudge. Watson can read and understand over 2 million pages of information in only three seconds.

Congratulations to a robot friend.

IBM's Watson Computer In Use at C

STOCK MARKET BEARISH - -LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long as the clock runs out for the Monday session. The algo printed three numbers today and wants to flip to the short side but their are internal programming rules that remain unsatisfied, so, we wait for tomorrow.

The semiconductor weakness is a big deal today.  If SOX stays below 410.10, now at 409.65, then the market bears will resume today's selling. The market bulls need to move the SOX back above 410.10 to regain control.

For the SPX for Tuesday, starting at 1364.33, if the 1359 level is lost, the bears will finally be able to push the markets substantially lower. The bulls need to touch 1370, if so, the upside will accelerate, the SOX will surely be back above 410.10 and the bulls will be back in control.  A move thru 1361-1368 is sideways action. A turn appears imminent and if the SPX loses the 1359 level, Keybot will likely flip to the short side. Tomorrow we find out if the bulls can save the day again, or not.

3/11/12; 7:00 PM EST =

3/9/12; 9:00 AM EST =

3/5/12; 3:46 PM EST = +60; signal line is +68 but algorithm says stay long

3/5/12; 3:02 PM EST = +76; signal line is +67

3/5/12; 12:21 PM EST = +60; signal line is +66 but algorithm says stay long

3/4/12; 7:00 PM EST = +76; signal line is +66

Note Added 3/6/12 at 7:08 AM EST:  The S&P futures are strongly lower for today's open.  At this juncture, SOX would be expected to weaken further and SPX should break down thru 1359.  The opening should prove dramatic.  If the SPX stays under 1359 for about ten minutes, Keybot will likely have flipped to the short side. A broad market turn appears imminent.

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is long but on the edge of flipping short.  In fact, as seen below, the signal line now demands that the algo flip to the short side, but, internal programming rules are holding it back for now.  If the SPX loses 1359 today, Keybot will likely have all its ducks in a row and flip short.  The semiconductors, SOX, are breaking down dragging the markets lower.  Watch SOX 410.10 level and price is now printing 409.73. The market bears are making a run.  Hang on, a turn appears imminent.

3/11/12; 7:00 PM EST =

3/9/12; 9:00 AM EST =

3/5/12; 12:21 PM EST = +60; signal line is +66 but algorithm says stay long

3/4/12; 7:00 PM EST = +76; signal line is +66

The World of the Quant -- Computational Finance

Here is a link to an FT Magazine article School for Quants, by Sam Knight; Inside UCL's Financial Computing Centre, the planet's brightest quantitative analysts are now calculating our future.

A glimpse into Keybot's world.

Robots trade without emotion; that is why they trade superiorly.

FT Magazine -- School for Quants

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is long as the new trading week begins. Last week the algorithm motored thru the week without printing any real-time numbers.  The quant has a mind of its own. That behavior highlights the sideways movement of markets in recent days.  Perhaps this week the activity will increase. There is only one pre-scheduled number that prints this week on Friday morning.

The market bulls maintain control by keeping the majority of sectors buoyant.  The weak dollar lifts commodites, copper, gold, silver, etc..., which in turn raises the broad indexes. The market bears need to see a stronger dollar weaker euro, or they got nothing. JJC 48.50 and CRB 313 are important levels for the bulls to maintain, if lost, the market bears will accelerate the broad indexes downwards.

Watch semiconductors, SOX, the 411 level.  SOX is now at 420 comfortably 9 points above helping to keep the broad markets elevated.  The retail sector is truly remarkable in its resiliency in the face of ever-increasing gasoline prices. Watch RTH 39.10, the current print is 39.96, thus the bulls receive strength off the retail sector, unless 86 cents is lost on the RTH. Look for a huge spike in volatility, VIX, which will have market bears dancing with glee. The interesting aspect moving forward is that even though the broad markets may go into sell mode the algorithm may or may not flip to the short side.  With the signal line ticking upwards, however, Keybot does appear poised for a move to the short side at any time.

For the SPX, starting the week at 1370, if the bulls can move up and over 1374.50, and hold it a few minutes, the upside will launch, the SPX will attack 1378.04, the intraday high from a couple days ago. The bears need to need to lose the 1366 handle which is a confluence of support formed by horizontal support, the 10-day MA and Friday's LOD. If 1366 is lost, large block sellers will enter the markets and the broad indexes will accelerate lower. The SPX would test 1363.61 (2011 closing high) quickly, and likely fail.  Once 1366 is lost, the SPX should move lower to test the 20-day MA support at 1357.19. A move thru 1367-1373 is sideways action.

Stay on guard, do not be lulled into complacency as the majority of the long-side players are currently. Markets are unstable and can react violently at any time depending on the dollar and volatility behavior moving forward.

3/11/12; 7:00 PM EST =

3/9/12; 9:00 AM EST =

3/4/12; 7:00 PM EST = +76; signal line is +66

2/29/12; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +76; signal line is +65

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long.  Note how the only two printouts this week were the pre-scheduled numbers.  This highlights how Keybot is simply idling along on the bull side as the indexes remain elevated, now in a sideways pattern with bulls and bears fighting it out.  Friday's action moved thru the sideways range, testing near both the bullish upper level and bearish bottom level, resulting in neither side having the strength to dominate.

The semiconductors and retail will be key sectors next week.  Also, the dollar is important since the entire rally is built on the weaker dollar stronger euro move. Last week we saw cracks in the euro form. A stronger dollar will push commodities and copper lower and provide bear fuel.  After the Sunday pre-scheduled number prints tomorrow we can take a look at more specific levels to watch for the indexes and sectors for next week. Keybot remains long but do not be lulled into complacency, the algorithm can start wildly printing numbers at any time. Markets remain unstable.

3/4/12; 7:00 PM EST =

2/29/12; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +76; signal line is +65

2/28/12; 10:00 AM = +76; signal line is +64

2/26/12; 7:00 PM EST = +76; signal line is +63

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long. The printout below shows how the algorithm has not printed any random numbers all week long; the only two numbers that printed were the pre-scheduled numbers on Tuesday and Wednesday.  This indicates an algorithm simply motoring along on the long side without any bearish pressure occurring at all.

The bulls are cruising especially after VIX collapsed after yesterday's open, collapsing down thru the 20-day MA, then under 18, and then closing at the lows of the day at 17.26.  This indicates the lack of fear by traders and how they simply expect markets to continue upwards without a care. Continue watching the VIX since a rocket spike higher can occur anytime.

Watch the dollar and commodities.  The CRB is at 324 and has printed a 319 handle over the last couple days.  If the CRB 313 level fails, this will enable bears to bring negativity to the markets. Commodities move down when the dollar moves up.

For the SPX today, starting at 1374, the market bulls need to move up and over the 1376 handle, if that occurs, the bulls will be running higher into the weekend. The 1377-1378 overhead resistance is very important. If the SPX moves above this zone, the uber bullish strength will carry markets another leg higher. The market bears need to push the SPX down to lose the 1366 handle. If you see 1365 numbers start to print, the broad markets will accelerate lower into the weekend. A move thru 1367-1375 is sideways action. Futures currently indicate a slightly down open.

Perhaps Keybot will explode to life today printing numbers, but, considering the calmness all week so far, the algorithm may simply idle along into the weekend maintaining a bullish posture. Stay on guard, markets remain highly unstable, expect the unexpected.

3/4/12; 7:00 PM EST =

2/29/12; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +76; signal line is +65

2/28/12; 10:00 AM = +76; signal line is +64

2/26/12; 7:00 PM EST = +76; signal line is +63

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long after the pre-scheduled number prints this evening with no change for the algo number but another tick higher occurs for the signal line.  Keybot remains on the edge of going short but today's market negativity did not offer a firm direction for bears.  The SPX broke thru the 1373 level so 1377 R was tested, where the SPX fell on its sword, and rolled over. The 1365 level broke in the final hour, which is what the bears needed to create a thrust move lower, but afer a few minutes, the SPX popped back above.

Watch the VIX 23 level and higher to indicate serious market bearishness. The VIX closed one penny above its 20-day MA at 18.42 which is a bullish development for VIX, bearish for markets.  Use the VIX 20-day MA as a gauge for markets tomorrow, above 18.42 and market bears are happy, below 18.42 and market bulls are regaining market control, under 18 and bulls place their feet back up on the desk, and light a cigar. Watch commodities, CRB, the 313 level, now at 321.  Remember when CRB was important a week or two ago, then it broke out to the upside signaling more bullish upside? Well time to start watching CRB again, especially in light of the dollar bounce today. The CRB under 313 signals major market trouble and would likely lead to Keybot going short.

For the SPX for Thursday, starting at 1365, the market bears have the ball, do they fumble or start driving markets lower? The bears need to push the SPX only two points lower to lose the 1364 handle, if so, the bears are going to be exploring lower market levels in short order. The SPX would quickly test the 10-day MA at 1362-ish and likely fail. The bulls need to recover today's drop and then some, to touch the 1378 level, about 12 points higher, to regain control. A move thru 1365-1377 is sideways action. Listen for the China PMI numbers which will effect copper and commodities markets. The market instabilty highlighted each day here finally started to show its ugly face today.  Stay on guard.

3/4/12; 7:00 PM EST =

2/29/12; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +76; signal line is +65

2/28/12; 10:00 AM = +76; signal line is +64

2/26/12; 7:00 PM EST = +76; signal line is +63

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long. The algo idled along calmly today after the 10 AM number without printing any activity. The SPX closed above the intraday 2011 high of 1370.58, a big feather in the bull's cap. Of interest is that the breach of 1272 should have catapulted the SPX towards 1377 R but instead it barely had the gas to move thru 1373 before pulling back.

What a rally, from SPX 1200 to SPX 1372, let's call it 175 points, since mid-December, eleven weeks.  That is 16 spoo points per week, week after week, from December thru almost March. Very impressive and the market bulls must be given their due. The major sectors remain bullish, sans trannies, and volatility remains low. The driver overnight tonight is the LTRO2 news, tentatively hitting the futures markets at 5 AM EST, about ten hours away as this is written.

If the SPX, starting at 1372, gains one point and stays above 1373 for five or ten minutes tomorrow, the bulls will launch another upside run, attacking the 1377 R. The market bears need to drop under the 1365 handle to ignite the short side. A move thru 1366-1372 is sideways action. Note that with the LTRO2 news known in the morning before the U.S. open, the fate of the markets will likely be decided before the bell rings.

The bulls remain in control.  Watch RTH 39 and XLF 14.40 but the bulls are comfortably cruising well above these critical levels. Perhaps GS's announcement that it received a Wells Notice will weaken financials.  Markets remain highly unstable and appear frothy but Keybot remains long.  Trading tomorrow and Thursday may prove quite dramatic.

3/4/12; 7:00 PM EST =

2/29/12; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

2/28/12; 10:00 AM = +76; signal line is +64

2/26/12; 7:00 PM EST = +76; signal line is +63

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long.  The pre-scheduled number prints without changing the algo number but the signal line increases by one.  As the signal line continues to move higher, this actually favors bears since it makes the flip to the short side, whenever it decides to come, easier.  For now, the bulls are cruising along without a worry or care. Oddly, however, the SPX has not yet launched a stab at the 1372 level to ignite a new bull run. Watch 1372.

The sectors remain elevated favoring the bulls.  VIX is printing 18.09 not yet able to overcome the 20-day MA at 18.5-ish so the bulls have their feet up on the desk lighting cigars. Do not be fooled, however, caution is required, markets are very unstable currently. The LTRO2 news within the next 24 hours will dictate market action.

3/4/12; 7:00 PM EST =

2/29/12; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

2/28/12; 10:00 AM = +76; signal line is +64

2/26/12; 7:00 PM EST = +76; signal line is +63

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long. The algo idled along yesterday without printing any numbers. The drop in the indexes after the open did not impress Keybot; the majority of market sectors remain elevated. The algorithm is currently watching the following levels for several key sectors so pay attention to these numbers; SOX 412, RTH 39, XLF 14.40 and JJC 48.50. Volatility, VIX, requires close watching as well. VIX closed above 18 yesterday. Today will be a resumption of the fight for the 20-day MA at 18.54. Market bears win if the VIX moves above 18.54 while bulls stay in control under 18.54. Even if the VIX moves above 18.54, bulls will only develop serious concern if VIX 23 is taken out.

Thus, the bulls are at cruise altitude as they try to burn off negative energy by moving the markets sideways.  For the SPX starting at 1368 today, the bulls need to touch 1372, if so, the bulls will enjoy an upside acceleration.  The price behavior at the 2011 intraday high at 1370.58 is important.  Futures project about a six point gain at the open currently, which easily overcomes 1372, so the bulls appear in good shape, but the U.S. open remains over four hours away.

Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number at 10 AM and this is expected to be a market pivot point, thus, if markets are up going into 10 AM a reversal may occur, or visa versa. The broad markets can be reassessed at that time. The market bears need to push the SPX down to lose the 1355 handle, which was yesterday's low support test, if they want to ignite negativity. A move thru 1356-1370 is sideways action.

3/4/12; 7:00 PM EST =

2/29/12; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

2/28/12; 10:00 AM =

2/26/12; 7:00 PM EST = +76; signal line is +63

2/24/12; 3:05 PM EST = +76; signal line is +62

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is long to start the new trading week.  The algo is monitoring the retail sector closely as the week begins.  If RTH falls under 39, now at 39.63, the broad markets will be in trouble.  The financials may be effected this week by the LTRO and Fed news. If XLF drops under 14.20, now at 14.67, the broad markets will be in trouble.  The utilities, UTIL, that was so much a focus last week, favors the bulls this week, at least at the start, since UTIL 442 must be maintianed to keep the markets buoyant and UTIL is comfortably eleven handles higher.  Of interest, however, is that the utes have logged three weekly downtrend weeks over the last four weeks which is very bearish for markets moving forward. Thus, UTIL 442 must be watched and a big win will occur for bulls if the new week ends on Friday with UTIL remaining above 442.

For the SPX starting at 1366, the market bulls only have to touch 1369, if so, another bull run higher is on tap.  SPX 1370.58, the intraday high from 2011, will then be tested, then 1377 if the 1370.58 R fails.  The market bears need to push back under the 2011 closing high at 1363.61 to accelerate the negativity.  A move thru 1365-1367 is sideways action.  Since the projected range for Monday is tight, one side will win, likely determined by the move up thru 1369.00, or, down thru 1363.61.

Markets remain unstable and require close attention. Two pre-scheduled numbers occur this week for the quant, one on Tuesday morning and the other on Wednesday evening.

3/4/12; 7:00 PM EST =

2/29/12; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

2/28/12; 10:00 AM =

2/26/12; 7:00 PM EST = +76; signal line is +63

2/24/12; 3:05 PM EST = +76; signal line is +62

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long.  Friday offered up some excitement with the algorithm moving itself into position to go short but the proper signals would not line up to allow the quant to commit.  Thus, the algorithm number is now back above the signal line allowing the bulls to breathe a little easier over the weekend.

The utilities provided high drama last week.  This drama will subside unless UTIL moves down towards 442, but with price eleven handles above at 453, the bulls appear to have wrestled back temporary control.  The algo is constantly scanning sectors and identifies the most pertinent sectors affecting broad market direction. The retail sector, RTH, is becoming more important to the quant each day, so keep an eye on RTH 39 next week.  The algo prints out the pre-scheduled number tomorrow so at that time we can set things up for the Monday trade. Markets are not to be trusted currently, expect the unexpected.

2/26/12; 7:00 PM EST =

2/24/12; 3:05 PM EST = +76; signal line is +62

2/24/12; 2:30 PM EST = +60; signal line is +62 but algorithm says stay long

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is long.  The algo prints two more numbers this afternoon, six in all today, signaling a preference to flip short but now content with staying in the bull camp once again.

2/26/12; 7:00 PM EST =

2/24/12; 3:05 PM EST = +76; signal line is +62

2/24/12; 2:30 PM EST = +60; signal line is +62 but algorithm says stay long

2/24/12; 11:41 AM EST = +76; signal line is +62

2/24/12; 11:16 AM EST = +60; signal line is +61 but algorithm says stay long

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long.  The bulls pushed the utilities higher, UTIL up and over 454 now, to boost the SPX thru 1368 R, and are looking very strong again.  UTIL 452.91 will remain important into the close. SPX 1368 now becomes support and 1370.58 is then next overhead resistance. Bulls dodged a bullet again, for now. Lots of trading remaining for today.

2/26/12; 7:00 PM EST =

2/24/12; 11:41 AM EST = +76; signal line is +62

2/24/12; 11:16 AM EST = +60; signal line is +61 but algorithm says stay long

2/24/12; 10:47 AM EST = +76; signal line is +61

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is long but on the very edge of flipping short.  The algo number is now under the signal line triggering the quant to go short but there are other internal programming rules that must also be satisfied to allow the signal to follow thru.  Just when you think the day will be quiet, Keybot roars to life printing two numbers and now more firmly moves towards the short side.  Looking at the program internals, Keybot will probably flip short if you see the SPX move down to 1352-ish today. This target is about 15 handles lower from the current print so it is a formidable goal for bears today but it is within possibility. This is very interesting market behavior currently, watch UTIL 452.91 for more drama as the day moves along.  This afternoon may be a wild ride for the broad indexes. Markets are erratic and unstable, extreme caution must be exercised. A turn to the short side appears imminent for today or Monday.

2/26/12; 7:00 PM EST =

2/24/12; 11:16 AM EST = +60; signal line is +61 but algorithm says stay long

2/24/12; 10:47 AM EST = +76; signal line is +61

2/24/12; 10:00 AM EST = +60; signal line is +60 but algorithm says stay long

2/22/12; 3:26 PM EST = +60; signal line is +60 but algorithm says stay long

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is long. The pre-scheduled number results in no change.  The algo remains on the verge of going short but not yet. Today the SPX would probably have to give up ten handles or more for Keybot to go short so it is looking like the algo will stay long into the weekend.  But, the quant can explode into wild action at any time and there is a long day ahead that has yet to be played out.

UTIL 452.91 remains important for today but at 4 PM today, and all next week, this value drops to 442.01 making life far easier for the market bulls.  The market bears need to see JJC 48 and/or RTH 39 to develop any downside mojo.

The SPX moved up thru the 1363.61, and touched the 1364.25, so the upside accelerated, the HOD thus far at 1366.94, a few ticks shy of 1367. The quant is increasingly focused on the retail sector, use RTH 39 as an important level to monitor now.  Reference UTIL at today's close in reference to the 442 level. Markets remain highly unstable, stay alert.

2/26/12; 7:00 PM EST =

2/24/12; 10:00 AM EST = +60; signal line is +60 but algorithm says stay long

2/22/12; 3:26 PM EST = +60; signal line is +60 but algorithm says stay long

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long going into the Friday session. Today was a bull-bear standoff.  The algo was active yesterday but today simply idled along without printing any numbers. The algo is on the bull-bear line and the likely outcome will probably be determined by the bulls winning if UTIL 452.91 and higher is achieved, or, the bears winning, and Keybot perhaps flipping short, if JJC drops under 48 and heads lower.  Despite the higher finish for the broad indexes today, the weakness in the utilities sector can be viewed as very bearish for markets.

For the SPX, starting at 1363.46, only 15 measley cents under the 2011 closing high at 1363.61, the market bulls need to push the SPX up to touch 1364.25, if achieved, a bullish upside orgy will result. Since the move needed is less than a buck, the overnight futures are very important tonight.  If you see any green, the bulls are going to be in a happy mood tomorrow.  The market bears need to keep the futures red and push lower to touch 1352.25 after trading begins, if so, the downside will accelerate for the broad markets.  A move thru 1353-1363 is sideways action. 

The bull-bear standoff continues since UTIL cannot move above 352.91 and JJC cannot move below 48. The euro strength keeps the dollar low which keeps copper, JJC, elevated. In a nutshell, up euro favors the market bulls, down euro favors market bears. Markets remain unstable and complacent. Extreme caution is required. Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number tomorrow morning at 10 AM so the market action can be updated at that time.

2/26/12; 7:00 PM EST =

2/24/12; 10:00 AM EST =

2/22/12; 3:26 PM EST = +60; signal line is +60 but algorithm says stay long

2/22/12; 3:03 PM EST = +76; signal line is +60

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is long but hanging on by only a single thread. The algo was very active today printing out six numbers, the most in quite a while.  The quant keeps ratcheting the signal line higher and during the afternoon placed the aglorithm on the verge of flipping short; note that the algorithm number and signal line are both at +60.  This type of equal reading can result in a trend change but in this case two other signals in the internals of the program are holding Keybot back so the algo remains long overnight.

For tomorrow, the battle at UTIL 452.91 continues; today the utes performed many crosses and the committment either above for bulls or below for bears will show you the broad market direction.  Copper JJC 48 remains important and requires watching tomorrow.

For the SPX on Thursday, starting at 1358, if the market bears can push under 1355.50, the downside will accelerate and Keybot may potentially flip to the short side. The market bulls need to touch 1363 and the upside will accelerate into a buying frenzy as the SPX attacks the critical 1363.61 and likely pierces up and thru on its way to 1370-1371. A move thru 1357-1362 is sideways action.

2/26/12; 7:00 PM EST =

2/24/12; 10:00 AM EST =

2/22/12; 3:26 PM EST = +60; signal line is +60 but algorithm says stay long

2/22/12; 3:03 PM EST = +76; signal line is +60

2/22/12; 2:55 PM EST = +60; signal line is +59

2/22/12; 2:15 PM EST = +76; signal line is +59

2/22/12; 1:42 PM EST = +60; signal line is +59

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is long and the drama continues. The algo kicked out another number a few minutes ago, now within one point of the signal line where the quant will want to go short, but, for now, the algo remains on the bull side still yet.

2/26/12; 7:00 PM EST =

2/24/12; 10:00 AM EST =

2/22/12; 1:42 PM EST = +60; signal line is +59

2/22/12; 1:08 PM EST = +76; signal line is +59

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long.  The utilities refuse to die and the bulls continually push UTIL above 452.91 which provides market buoyancy. Copper is remaining elevated so despite the drop in the SPX under 1358 today, Keybot remains long.  Note how the signal line ratchets higher on each print; this actually makes the shift to the bear side come easier, whenever it chooses to occur. UTIL 452.91 and SPX 1358 remain key today. Markets are unstable; extreme caution is warranted.

2/26/12; 7:00 PM EST =

2/24/12; 10:00 AM EST =

2/22/12; 1:08 PM EST = +76; signal line is +59

2/21/12; 1:18 PM EST = +60; signal line is +57

2/21/12; 10:42 AM EST = +76; signal line is +57

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is long, but tentatively.  The algo number is only three points above the signal line ready to go short upon further market weakness.  The week is off to an active start with Keybot printing three numbers today. If UTIL stays under 452.91 the market bears are favored.  If JJC stays above 48.00 the market bulls are favored. One of these should give way with the broad markets following along.  The weak dollar is keeping copper and commodities elevated. Thus, the bears cannot drive the markets lower unless the dollar strengthens. AAPL is also in play and if Apple rolls over, the markets will follow.

For the SPX, starting at 1362, the market bulls need to push up thru 1363.61 again, then to touch the 1368 handle if they want to reaccelerate their upside mojo.  The market bears need to lose the 1358 handle, if so, the broad markets will accelerate downward. A move thru 1359-1366 is sideways action. The close tomorrow in relation to 1363.61 remains important. If the dollar strengthens tomorrow, watch for copper weakness that may cause Keybot to flip to the short side.  Markets are highly erratic and unstable currently. Extreme caution is warranted.

2/26/12; 7:00 PM EST =

2/24/12; 10:00 AM EST =

2/21/12; 1:18 PM EST = +60; signal line is +57

2/21/12; 10:42 AM EST = +76; signal line is +57

2/21/12; 9:48 AM EST = +60; signal line is +55